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Majorian posted:As far as NATO is concerned, he's demonstrated pretty conclusively that most of the alliance does not want to be dragged into a war with Russia, which is why countries like Ukraine will never be allowed in.
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Feb 16, 2022 16:41
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Cugel the Clever posted:This is a weird take. NATO members don't want to be dragged to the defense of... a non-member for which they have zero obligation to defend? That doesn't sound like a surprise and is certainly not a win for Putin. If anything, the resolve major NATO members have shown despite the complete lack of obligation is heartening. Germany especially has been aggressively targeted by Russian soft power for decades to shift its domestic incentives against confronting Russia, but has still made serious commitments to imposing costs on Putin's belligerence. Moreover both Macron and Scholz have now had direct experience of trying to talk to Putin and then having a bruising press conference straight afterwards where they got pretty badly treated. Even if national policy of diplomatic engagement remains the same, it just matters that the people at the top had a terrible experience, know the guy on the other end of the table isn't going to deal with them honestly, and probably don't want to do it again. e: this is not the kind of suggestion that gets made unless allies were happy to say it https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/1493978369993719809 Alchenar fucked around with this message at 17:04 on Feb 16, 2022 |
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Feb 16, 2022 16:53
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Alchenar posted:Moreover both Macron and Scholz have now had direct experience of trying to talk to Putin and then having a bruising press conference straight afterwards where they got pretty badly treated. Even if national policy of diplomatic engagement remains the same, it just matters that the people at the top had a terrible experience, know the guy on the other end of the table isn't going to deal with them honestly, and probably don't want to do it again. Oh good battleground in eastern Europe. Lol cool it's about time we relitigate the fulda gap. You see. Ukraine is the sick man of Europe who must be cleaned of the infectious "pro Europe" sentiment. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 17:13 on Feb 16, 2022 |
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Feb 16, 2022 17:11
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Alchenar posted:In any case I think the whole border >< elections issue over Minsk is shadowboxing. Putin's real endgame objective is obviously an autonomous region that will reliably return a Moscow client and which constitutionally holds a veto over Ukrainian membership of NATO. That's probably the legal guarantee he keeps asking someone to offer him. I think you are right overall, and of course that's not going to be accepted by any actually Ukrainian government. The order stuff matters insomuch that even the sort of things that would be acceptable are political non-starters w/o more than promises from Russia since no one in Ukraine will believe those. Edit: it would also determine whether the MPs are chosen by Putin or Akhmetov, and those are not the same, even considering Akhmetov's... questionable loyalties. OddObserver fucked around with this message at 17:19 on Feb 16, 2022 |
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Feb 16, 2022 17:16
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the US has been acting much more assertively in NATO over the past decade or so and stoltenberg is very much Washington's man. i wouldn't read too much into it other than that. i agree with the earlier point that one imagined form of the kind of guarantee that putin wants is a ratified minsk accord amounting to a basically pro-russian regional veto of ukrainian NATO membership. another guarantee could simply take the form of NATO saying "sorry the books are closed for eastward expansion". NATO has shown itself in principle unwilling to do this for various reasons, and is seizing on the ukrainian situation to try and make itself more relevant and to increase support for its otherwise unpopular budget demands. a russian all-out invasion of ukraine would be, as mentioned earlier, both incredibly stupid objectively and very out of step with how putin's government has tended to deploy its hard power in the past. there's no good guy here, just competing imperial interests and a really awkwardly placed and unstable ukraine in the middle, being fought over both by foreign powers and its own incredibly venal upper class. i have a fair amount of sympathy for zelenskij, who's got a really bad hand, but that's about it.
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Feb 16, 2022 17:18
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Just as a quick thing, but I saw this posted elsewhere and wanted to ask folks here if there is any truth to it? https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1493939541710974982?s=20&t=NghImyNSf51Sl3CJYSxY9A Does this mean that there is a disdain for a variety of western media outlets in Ukraine or just amongst the people at the top of the government atm? Or is it just a personal opinion sort of thing. Sorry to drop it in, but I figure that other people here will know more than me just trying to google things willy nilly.
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Feb 16, 2022 17:19
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I don't think this turned out well for Russia, but there's no reason why pushing things to the brink like this wouldn't also hurt Ukraine. It's just a matter of how much the monetary costs of "responding to troop buildup on borders" end up being for the smaller guy.
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Feb 16, 2022 17:30
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Josef bugman posted:Does this mean that there is a disdain for a variety of western media outlets in Ukraine or just amongst the people at the top of the government atm? Or is it just a personal opinion sort of thing.
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Feb 16, 2022 17:31
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Welp, looks like Putin won. https://eurovisionworld.com/esc/ukraine-alina-pash-withdraws-from-eurovision-song-contest-2022 quote:Ukraine: Alina Pash withdraws from Eurovision Song Contest 2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rz6aQLKyBHc This was his 9-dimensional chess play all along. Not to exclude Ukraine from Nato or from European Union. But from European Song Contest!
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Feb 16, 2022 17:32
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Josef bugman posted:Just as a quick thing, but I saw this posted elsewhere and wanted to ask folks here if there is any truth to it? All this drama (according to Ukraine) is making their economy turn to poo poo. Evidence for that is hard to show, their currency has lost a portion of its value (we're talking .38 to USD to .36). I'm not aware of any hard numbers on the economic situation other than that. It doesn't take an economist to know that it is undoubtedly hurting tourism and foreign investment but at the same time, not like winter is the big season for trips to the Black Sea.
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Feb 16, 2022 17:32
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Josef bugman posted:Does this mean that there is a disdain for a variety of western media outlets in Ukraine or just amongst the people at the top of the government atm? Or is it just a personal opinion sort of thing. War hysteria in Western media caused Western investors to pull out, and contributed to the economic damage that Ukraine is suffering. So there's definitely some truth that Western media sensationalism assisted in achieving Putin's objectives, if that's what he wanted all along. You can defend this by saying the Russian military operations were indistinguishable from a real prelude to invasion. But yeah, Western media coverage, as far as I'm aware, has not given sufficient attention to the possibility that this was/is an exercise in brinksmanship, rather than proof that Putin has completely lost it. And sure, things aren't over yet. but there's a lesson there.
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Feb 16, 2022 17:33
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Josef bugman posted:
I haven't seen any polling, so I can't say, but do keep in mind that only the younger generations are likely to engage in English-language media. Now, objectively, a lot of reporting is worth disdain for reasons partly related to the above complaint. You're probably quite familiar with bothsideism and overlove of authority figures from more domestic issues, but in case of Ukraine it's exacerbated by people w/o context parachuting in when it's in big news and making total fools of themselves, and then just repeating claims that would make anyone with a clue keel over in laughter. Or, you know, like what happened yesterday, misquoting the Ukrainian president because they apparently didn't have anyone with even partial understanding of the language to check. Those who are actually on Kyiv beats are usually way better, and Chris in particular is pretty good.
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Feb 16, 2022 17:47
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Big if true? https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1493875669809442816 Exercises are scheduled to end in four days right?
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Feb 16, 2022 17:54
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Josef bugman posted:Just as a quick thing, but I saw this posted elsewhere and wanted to ask folks here if there is any truth to it? There’s growing popular disdain for western media, he’s absolutely on point there. Western media also is much more efficient at moving international investors than Russian morning special propagandists. Not sure if the math on financial losses checks out, but currently Ukraine is probably eating more in economic damage than any sanctions imposed upon Russia thus far, in relative terms over similar time period. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 17:57 on Feb 16, 2022 |
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Feb 16, 2022 17:55
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ronya posted:Big if true? So they're going to cross the Ukrainian border by then? Big indeed!
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Feb 16, 2022 17:56
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V. Illych L. posted:the US has been acting much more assertively in NATO over the past decade or so and stoltenberg is very much Washington's man. i wouldn't read too much into it other than that. Yeah, it's also helpful to remember that it was the then-NATO Secretary-General who promised that Ukraine and Georgia would join NATO someday in the first place - even while existing NATO member-states were already loudly shouting "no they won't!" Incidentally, de Hoop Scheffer is now saying "don't blame me for this!" quote:Nato’s Ukraine pledge, given at a stormy summit in Bucharest, represented a messy consolation for supporters of Kyiv’s membership — led by then-US president George Bush — who were defeated in an attempt to get the alliance to agree on beginning the country’s formal admission procedure. quote:“For the foreseeable and the unforeseeable future they’ll not become a Nato member. And I think the whole group around that table in Bucharest knew this,” he said. “It was already clear then that in the eyes of the opponents [of Ukraine’s membership] it was until hell freezes over. There was no time limit whatsoever.” One wonders why he made the promise in the first place, if it was so clear that the alliance wouldn't be able to fulfill it even back then.
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Feb 16, 2022 18:11
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OddObserver posted:I haven't seen any polling, so I can't say, but do keep in mind that only the younger generations are likely to engage in English-language media. Now, objectively, a lot of reporting is worth disdain for reasons partly related to the above complaint. You're probably quite familiar with bothsideism and overlove of authority figures from more domestic issues, but in case of Ukraine it's exacerbated by people w/o context parachuting in when it's in big news and making total fools of themselves, and then just repeating claims that would make anyone with a clue keel over in laughter. Western media and in particular cable news were talking like an invasion was imminent two months ago when it wasn’t even remotely possible for Russia to be ready. American hawks have been creaming themselves for Russia to do an Iraq to the point it seems like they’re trying to will it into existence via op-eds to the point some of the dumber liberal hawk types are believing their own bullshit. Putin is reckless and ruthless but I don’t think he’s dumb enough to actually launch a real invasion, there’s basically no way Russia comes out ahead long term. Russia is far too weak and can’t afford to do an Iraq like we could.
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Feb 16, 2022 18:16
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SMEGMA_MAIL posted:Western media and in particular cable news were talking like an invasion was imminent two months ago when it wasn’t even remotely possible for Russia to be ready. American hawks have been creaming themselves for Russia to do an Iraq to the point it seems like they’re trying to will it into existence via op-eds to the point some of the dumber liberal hawk types are believing their own bullshit. Putin is reckless and ruthless but I don’t think he’s dumb enough to actually launch a real invasion, there’s basically no way Russia comes out ahead long term. Russia is far too weak and can’t afford to do an Iraq like we could. They've had the forces in place for an attack since as early as November - the scale of what the could prosecute has only been steadily increasing. The media is ghoulish and hysterical but for different reasons.
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Feb 16, 2022 18:20
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SMEGMA_MAIL posted:Putin is reckless and ruthless but I don’t think he’s dumb enough to actually launch a real invasion, there’s basically no way Russia comes out ahead long term. Russia is far too weak and can’t afford to do an Iraq like we could. As I said to others, I sure hope you're right, but it's not a very comforting thought to rely on if one cares about Ukrainians. For me in particular it's iffy since I am aware of just how much racist contempt nationalist Russians[1] can have towards abilities of Ukrainians, and the ability of politicians to drink their own koolaid. Like would you necessarily think in 2001 that Dick Chenney would be dumb enough to do an invasion w/o planning for the aftermath? After all he is also evil, not stupid. The fact of the matter is the troops are there, the equipment is there, and only one man truly knows if they'll attack or not (if that man has even made up his mind!) [1] and also Russian "liberals".
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Feb 16, 2022 18:32
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SMEGMA_MAIL posted:Western media and in particular cable news were talking like an invasion was imminent two months ago when it wasn’t even remotely possible for Russia to be ready. American hawks have been creaming themselves for Russia to do an Iraq to the point it seems like they’re trying to will it into existence via op-eds to the point some of the dumber liberal hawk types are believing their own bullshit. Putin is reckless and ruthless but I don’t think he’s dumb enough to actually launch a real invasion, there’s basically no way Russia comes out ahead long term. Russia is far too weak and can’t afford to do an Iraq like we could. I remember reading pretty much the same takes after Euromaidan, i.e. "Russia would never invade Ukraine. Are you insane? This is all just a huge misunderstanding that will surely clear up soon". Arguably, they didn't gain much by doing an invasion back then either. Crimea and the Donbas warlord states are a huge financial drain and the Russian economy suffered greatly from the aftermath. And it still happened. And I don't think it's beyond Russia's ability to occupy and pacify the land bridge to Crimea. Nobody forces them to go all the way to Kyiv.
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Feb 16, 2022 18:40
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Also people I think overestimate the difficulty of potential occupation since they forget that there are a lot of cops in Ukraine, and plenty would be happy to collaborate. ACAB very much applies.
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Feb 16, 2022 18:45
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https://mobile.twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1493983509635080194 RIP that pavement Also RIP Ukraine ig
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Feb 16, 2022 18:46
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OddObserver posted:Also people I think overestimate the difficulty of potential occupation since they forget that there are a lot of cops in Ukraine, and plenty would be happy to collaborate. ACAB very much applies.
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Feb 16, 2022 18:54
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Russia has lingual and cultural similarities to Ukraine that America did not have with Iraq and may have already infiltrated Ukraine institutions extensively. I bet that Russia's could occupy Ukraine and snuff out any resistance and wouldnt suffer a horrible Iraq-style insurgency.
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Feb 16, 2022 19:02
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V. Illych L. posted:there's no good guy here, just competing imperial interests and a really awkwardly placed and unstable ukraine in the middle, being fought over both by foreign powers and its own incredibly venal upper class. i have a fair amount of sympathy for zelenskij, who's got a really bad hand, but that's about it. Yeah, he's played that terrible hand about as well as anyone could - and he's going to be rewarded very poorly for it: https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1493965620135800834 OctaMurk posted:Russia has lingual and cultural similarities to Ukraine that America did not have with Iraq and may have already infiltrated Ukraine institutions extensively. I bet that Russia's could occupy Ukraine and snuff out any resistance and wouldnt suffer a horrible Iraq-style insurgency. I think the insurgency might not be as widespread, but it would be considerably better-funded and better-armed, thanks to the U.S., than the Iraqi one was. Majorian fucked around with this message at 19:07 on Feb 16, 2022 |
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Feb 16, 2022 19:04
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Zelenskyi promised to be a one-term president, so there's at least one election promise he's likely to keep. I don't think Poroshenko's ES attracted any Zelenskyi voters, though. You can see that other nationalist-adjacent parties have lost a lot of support, as Poroshenko managed to galvanise his audience amidst the criminal investigation against him. Meanwhile pro-Russian-adjacent and centrist politicians like Muraev, Razumkov, and Medvedchuk were the ones to profit from loss of confidence in Zelenskyi. A notable exception is Sharyi, and I imagine it has something to do with his and Murayev's weird beef.
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Feb 16, 2022 19:18
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After Russia is pushed out of Eastern Ukraine, what should be done so that area feels more unity to greater ukraine instead of russia?
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Feb 16, 2022 19:34
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Mr Hootington posted:After Russia is pushed out of Eastern Ukraine, what should be done so that area feels more unity to greater ukraine instead of russia? Ethnic cleansing. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 16, 2022 19:37
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Conspiratiorist posted:Ethnic cleansing. You think the ethnic Russians should be relocated or depopulated?
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Feb 16, 2022 19:38
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Mr Hootington posted:After Russia is pushed out of Eastern Ukraine, what should be done so that area feels more unity to greater ukraine instead of russia? Raise pensions.
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Feb 16, 2022 19:44
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Mr Hootington posted:After Russia is pushed out of Eastern Ukraine, what should be done so that area feels more unity to greater ukraine instead of russia? Rebuilding of infrastructure, proper political representation in the region, easing off on language laws, repatriation program for refugees and amnesty for most rebels. If Poroshenko comes back to power you can kiss most of it goodbye because he would go head first into the swamp and do insane poo poo of throwing meat to his base.
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Feb 16, 2022 19:47
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Mr Hootington posted:You think the ethnic Russians should be relocated or depopulated? Oh, sorry, I read that as what would happen in the hypothetical Ukraine regained control of the separatist regions. As for what should happen, Ukraine would just have to somehow become a wealthier country than its neighbors rather than the economic embarrassment it is now.
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Feb 16, 2022 19:51
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fatherboxx posted:Rebuilding of infrastructure, proper political representation in the region, easing off on language laws, repatriation program for refugees and amnesty for most rebels. So no realistic solutions to the situation beyond letting it breakaway. Mr Hootington fucked around with this message at 20:09 on Feb 16, 2022 |
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Feb 16, 2022 20:07
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I don't know if the Daily Beast is a reputable source, but one of their correspondents is saying that Wagner mercenaries who have regularly been killing civilians in Central African Republic are being withdrawn from that country. https://twitter.com/PhilipObaji/status/1493984585989902342
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Feb 16, 2022 20:16
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Generation Internet posted:I don't know if the Daily Beast is a reputable source, but one of their correspondents is saying that Wagner mercenaries who have regularly been killing civilians in Central African Republic are being withdrawn from that country. Any news on what's going on with Putin's personal biker gang?
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Feb 16, 2022 20:22
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Generation Internet posted:I don't know if the Daily Beast is a reputable source, but one of their correspondents is saying that Wagner mercenaries who have regularly been killing civilians in Central African Republic are being withdrawn from that country. Wagner's already been in Ukraine before. So they'd be returning.
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Feb 16, 2022 20:22
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Mr Hootington posted:So no realistic solutions to the situation beyond letting it breakaway. Once Russian advisors/leaders pack up and the cashflow stops it would go back into Ukraine near-instantly because it is not really a self-sustainable region and turning into permanent hellhole like Transnistria is not a fate that people still left there would prefer.
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Feb 16, 2022 20:25
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Generation Internet posted:I don't know if the Daily Beast is a reputable source, but one of their correspondents is saying that Wagner mercenaries who have regularly been killing civilians in Central African Republic are being withdrawn from that country. From what i heard Its the opposite. Veterans refuse to get involved with this poo poo
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Feb 16, 2022 20:39
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Conspiratiorist posted:Ethnic cleansing. I am going to cleanse your posting ability, if you try to make another edgy joke involving ethnic cleansing.
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Feb 16, 2022 20:42
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Josef bugman posted:Just as a quick thing, but I saw this posted elsewhere and wanted to ask folks here if there is any truth to it? There's been a bunch of reports of wealthy businessmen leaving the Ukraine for fear of invasion which makes sense because nobody wants to do business in a state about to rolled by tanks. All these expectations of war can only have a negative effect on the economy. Helpfully, the US is proposing that the Ukrainian government take out some loans to fix it.
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