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https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1494372156112879619?t=28ji7xk6zswVQIwvI2-XFg&s=19
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Feb 17, 2022 20:46
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Economic instability is magnified with artillery rounds hitting Ukrainian paintings. I would say the conflict will be exacerbated. Especially if Putin pulls out. The capital isn't going to just decide to come back. "" Blinken: Russia says it is drawing down those forces. We don't see that happening on the ground. Our information indicates clearly that these forces including ground troops, aircraft, ships are preparing to launch an attack against Ukraine in the coming DAYS "" "" British Minister of State for Europe and North America: Russia has fabricated a dispute in the Donbass and continues to fuel it "" The Brits posted a map of the conflict. I'm phone posting so I can't post it without great effort. But basically they see the Russian plan is blow up Kiev with a major force and then walk to lviv from dniper. I don't see why they'd need to do this if Kiev gets head shotted the resistance will dry up fast as hell. I mean I know we say this with the Fall of Afghanistan where the govt over exaggerated their idea of how long they'd survive. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 20:53 on Feb 17, 2022 |
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Feb 17, 2022 20:49
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Tuna-Fish posted:Russia has a huge air force and Ukraine has little capacity to do more than harass it after about a day of SEAD work. Fallujah part 2 took a month and a half, cost the US 600 dead and wounded and 1/5 of the city was destroyed. If Ukrainian forces or militias fortify in the cities Russian airpower is useless for anything but demolishing buildings live on TV.
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Feb 17, 2022 20:50
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Haven't watched it myself yet, but promises to be an interesting debate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZ_kmAEk0fw
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Feb 17, 2022 20:51
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A Buttery Pastry posted:How do you determine that they didn't want to be part of Ukraine? Ideally? Demilitarization by both governments and a League of Nations peacekeeping force of nonaligned nations to administer a referendum to determine the status of the region Obviously my ideal world is not going to happen
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Feb 17, 2022 20:52
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Tuna-Fish posted:Russia has a huge air force and Ukraine has little capacity to do more than harass it after about a day of SEAD work. Why not just buy Russian stuff lol. Doesn't Turkey have some of their AA? E: we could pay them i Liras mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 20:56 on Feb 17, 2022 |
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Feb 17, 2022 20:52
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mobby_6kl posted:Why not just buy Russian stuff lol. Doesn't Turkey have some of their AA? IIRC Turkey is now pissed because apparently they are duds. Gotta find the article.
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Feb 17, 2022 20:54
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Owling Howl posted:Fallujah part 2 took a month and a half, cost the US 600 dead and wounded and 1/5 of the city was destroyed. Shhhh I don't think that Ukraine is going to lock down the cities in a final city state hurrah. Id think the overwhelming force would cause most people's sanity to weigh weiwring a Russian armband over being killed and starved to death in a terror bombing campaign.
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Feb 17, 2022 20:56
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A Buttery Pastry posted:How do you determine that they didn't want to be part of Ukraine? So we're clear: You're talking about Crimea here, is that correct?
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Feb 17, 2022 21:13
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CommieGIR posted:IIRC Turkey is now pissed because apparently they are duds. Gotta find the article. Russia likes to talk big about the S-400 but there hasn't been any test of combat effectiveness.
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Feb 17, 2022 21:13
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VitalSigns posted:Ideally? Demilitarization by both governments and a League of Nations peacekeeping force of nonaligned nations to administer a referendum to determine the status of the region Koos Group posted:So we're clear: You're talking about Crimea here, is that correct?
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Feb 17, 2022 21:14
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Budzilla posted:There was a side discussion of AA and SAM tech a while back in the ME thread with Warbadger during the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. He pointed out Armenia has near the highest concentration of air defense in the region and Turkish drones just clowned on them. Also the latest short range 'Pantsir' air defence system from Russia has been ineffective in the Libyan civil war. As for Israeli jets over Libya, they are probably not getting fired upon for political reasons. Yeah I think that was the premise: The S-400 was unable to engage the actual targets Turkey needed to engage.
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Feb 17, 2022 21:16
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VitalSigns posted:Isn't deligitimizing the concept of secession Putin's argument for why Ukraine is part of Russia I would be interested to hear if that is indeed the argument Putin is making (it would certainly accord with how the phrase "the Ukraine" is used). Lenin's Declaration of the Rights of the Peoples of Russia which allowed Ukraine to secede was one of the best things the Bolsheviks did in my opinion, so it would be very dark if Putin were rhetorically implying that it was wrong or void.
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Feb 17, 2022 21:17
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Donetsk/Luhansk People's Republic Thank you for clarifying. That would be a much more difficult question to answer, then.
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Feb 17, 2022 21:18
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Tuna-Fish posted:Russia has a huge air force and Ukraine has little capacity to do more than harass it after about a day of SEAD work. What I am saying its not a walk to Kiev like some think with very unclear goals too which is not a help to Russian military, who will also be blamed when corpses come back home. Under a KGB man starting the biggest war Russia has seen since Afghanistan. Even bigger considering the forces involved
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Feb 17, 2022 21:20
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Koos Group posted:I would be interested to hear if that is indeed the argument Putin is making (it would certainly accord with how the phrase "the Ukraine" is used). Lenin's Declaration of the Rights of the Peoples of Russia which allowed Ukraine to secede was one of the best things the Bolsheviks did in my opinion, so it would be very dark if Putin were rhetorically implying that it was wrong or void. Putin and Putin's Government has openly argued Ukraine is not a real country. Putin both told Bush this and his Diplomats have said as much: quote:Surkov is not the first Russian official to make such a claim. The notion that Ukraine is not a country in its own right, but a historical part of Russia, appears to be deeply ingrained in the minds of many in the Russian leadership. Already long before the Ukraine crisis, at an April 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest, Vladimir Putin reportedly claimed that “Ukraine is not even a state! What is Ukraine? A part of its territory is [in] Eastern Europe, but a[nother] part, a considerable one, was a gift from us!” In his March 18, 2014 speech marking the annexation of Crimea, Putin declared that Russians and Ukrainians “are one people. Kiev is the mother of Russian cities. Ancient Rus’ is our common source and we cannot live without each other.” Since then, Putin has repeated similar claims on many occasions. As recently as February 2020, he once again stated in an interview that Ukrainians and Russians “are one and the same people”, and he insinuated that Ukrainian national identity had emerged as a product of foreign interference. Similarly, Russia’s then-Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev told a perplexed apparatchik in April 2016 that there has been “no state” in Ukraine, neither before nor after the 2014 crisis. quote:The eastern borders of Ukraine were formally drawn in 1919-1924 as the boundaries of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (UkrSSR). Vladimir Putin made a reference to this in his March 18, 2014 address to the Russian parliament, when he claimed that “after the revolution, the Bolsheviks, for a number of reasons – may God judge them – added large sections of the historical South of Russia to the Republic of Ukraine. This was done with no consideration for the ethnic make-up of the population, and today these areas form the southeast of Ukraine.” Putin made similar claims on various other occasions. At a January 2016 speech he lamented that the Soviet Union’s internal borders had been “established arbitrarily, without much reason” and called the inclusion of the Donets Basin in the UkrSSR “pure nonsense”. As recently as December 2019, during his annual end-of-year press conference, Putin complained that, “when the Soviet Union was created, primordially Russian territories that never had anything to do with Ukraine (the entire Black Sea region and Russia’s western lands) were turned over to Ukraine”
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Feb 17, 2022 21:23
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Koos Group posted:I would be interested to hear if that is indeed the argument Putin is making (it would certainly accord with how the phrase "the Ukraine" is used). Lenin's Declaration of the Rights of the Peoples of Russia which allowed Ukraine to secede was one of the best things the Bolsheviks did in my opinion, so it would be very dark if Putin were rhetorically implying that it was wrong or void. That's quite the spin there, given Ukraine was independent (when not controlled by German puppet military dictatorships) both by self-proclamation and by treaty signed by Bolshevik government until it was invaded by troops shipped in by Lenin from Petrograd, and the instituted regime completely sidelined domestic communist movements.
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Feb 17, 2022 21:25
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Koos Group posted:I would be interested to hear if that is indeed the argument Putin is making (it would certainly accord with how the phrase "the Ukraine" is used). Lenin's Declaration of the Rights of the Peoples of Russia which allowed Ukraine to secede was one of the best things the Bolsheviks did in my opinion, so it would be very dark if Putin were rhetorically implying that it was wrong or void. Putin's released this giant essay the other year, where he denounces Ukrainian culture/language/etcetera as being fictional. With that, he laid claim of Ukrainians being "basically Russians", and, you see, he's the president of Russia, therefore...
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Feb 17, 2022 21:33
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OddObserver posted:That's quite the spin there, given Ukraine was independent (when not controlled by German puppet military dictatorships) both by self-proclamation and by treaty signed by Bolshevik government until it was invaded by troops shipped in by Lenin from Petrograd, and the instituted regime completely sidelined domestic communist movements. That is good context to have. CommieGIR posted:Putin and Putin's Government has openly argued Ukraine is not a real country. Putin both told Bush this and his Diplomats have said as much: cinci zoo sniper posted:Putin's released this giant essay the other year, where he denounces Ukrainian culture/language/etcetera as being fictional. With that, he laid claim of Ukrainians being "basically Russians", and, you see, he's the president of Russia, therefore... Welp.
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Feb 17, 2022 21:35
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https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1494406719836930054?s=20&t=vK8XlZoOMl-qo_cD_GT63A Obviously, they'd have to be allowed to join first. PDF has more information for those who can read Ukrainian. Page 9 asks if Ukraine should withdraw from Minsk if Russia recognizes DNR/LNR. 55% say yes.
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Feb 17, 2022 21:35
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Putin's released this giant essay the other year, where he denounces Ukrainian culture/language/etcetera as being fictional. With that, he laid claim of Ukrainians being "basically Russians", and, you see, he's the president of Russia, therefore... My "favorite" part from Putin's essay from last summer was the one where he said that Ukraine becoming and being independent and being recognized as such was equivalent to using nuclear weapons against Russia, since separating Ukrainians from Russians as an ethnic entity dramatically reduces the number of Russians in the world.
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Feb 17, 2022 21:39
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Shhhh I don't think that Ukraine is going to lock down the cities in a final city state hurrah. Id think the overwhelming force would cause most people's sanity to weigh weiwring a Russian armband over being killed and starved to death in a terror bombing campaign. I'll direct your attention to the events of Debaltseve and Donetsk Airport. Now add 8 years of simmering anger and preparations. It seems reasonable that more of Ukraine would be controlled by Russia/separatists today if there hadn't been such pockets that had slowed their advance in 2014 so Ukraine has every reason to repeat this strategy. The one strategy that makes zero sense whatsoever is to send their forces out to meet Russia in the open where they are at every disadvantage and then dutifully surrender when they have been destroyed.
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Feb 17, 2022 21:39
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A Buttery Pastry posted:My point is that you assumed that the Ukrainian military was about to crush a secessionist movement with popular support, but we don't actually know that these "states" have that. If they don't, then what the Ukrainian government was doing was crushing what was essentially just a major bandit gang, not undermining the right of self-determination of the locals. My question to CG was more along the lines of whether the regions have the right to secede if that's indeed what they want, not an assertion that I know what they would choose if given the option. Also obviously I do not think "Russia invades and Russian soldiers supervise a referendum to ratify the occupation" is self-determination
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Feb 17, 2022 21:44
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VitalSigns posted:Ideally? Demilitarization by both governments and a League of Nations peacekeeping force of nonaligned nations to administer a referendum to determine the status of the region Your ideal world involves the phrase "League of Nations". Dream bigger.
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Feb 17, 2022 21:47
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Fabulous Knight posted:My "favorite" part from Putin's essay from last summer was the one where he said that Ukraine becoming and being independent and being recognized as such was equivalent to using nuclear weapons against Russia, since separating Ukrainians from Russians as an ethnic entity dramatically reduces the number of Russians in the world. If he only cared as much for actual russian russians. Russian Federation lost a fucken million people previous year. And thats deaths over births statistic.
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Feb 17, 2022 21:51
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Sekenr posted:If he only cared as much for actual russian russians. Russian Federation lost a fucken million people previous year. And thats deaths over births statistic. He cares (and by proxy his Russian Mob and Oligarch backers) deeply about the huge amount of wealth in Ukraine to be had and how those mean Ukrainians are keeping him from getting it.
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Feb 17, 2022 21:53
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No, this int about more wealth. Its about cronies unable to access their castles due to sanctions. They paid millions and cant access the property. Second is Putin loves to be a chessmaster, its a meme how he hates to deal with Rusdian internal isdues such as rabid dogs attacking a child or even grown man (a real thing that ru internal news talk a lot about) but is giddy moving pieces around the map
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Feb 17, 2022 22:03
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putin wants a big foreign policy victory because his present domestic policy is not especially popular. there's no particular reason to think that he's not perfectly sincere about not wanting NATO to expand eastwards. also i very sincerely doubt that there's going to be an invasion and occupation of ukraine outside of the breakaway republics*. most realistic offensive action i could see would be putin officially recognising those republics as sovereign and then securing them. modern russia has been pretty smart about hard power use in the past, and occupying ukraine proper would be both ruinously expensive and would quickly turn extremely unpopular; having a couple of pet republics on the border making an unresolved border issue is a de facto guarantee of no further NATO expansion and can be spun at home as a victory. it's a status quo which seems to suit the russian government's interests just fine. *offer does not apply to military actions not amounting to occupation such as air strikes or tactical offensives
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Feb 18, 2022 00:11
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V. Illych L. posted:putin wants a big foreign policy victory because his present domestic policy is not especially popular. there's no particular reason to think that he's not perfectly sincere about not wanting NATO to expand eastwards.
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Feb 18, 2022 00:22
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While I agree the only invasion scenario that isn't fantastically stupid is one focused on the bits that are already de facto Russian-controlled, I could very easily see some limited land grabs tacked onto it. Particularly in the service of further securing Crimea.
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Feb 18, 2022 00:34
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also as usual "is fantastically stupid" isn't a 100% guarantee that something won't happen
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Feb 18, 2022 00:35
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https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1494441943803183105?s=20&t=oaJ-6WgJDn_KHW6RmSWh6w
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Feb 18, 2022 00:46
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V. Illych L. posted:putin wants a big foreign policy victory because his present domestic policy is not especially popular. there's no particular reason to think that he's not perfectly sincere about not wanting NATO to expand eastwards. Yeah, that's pretty much my read as well. I think the trick that U.S., NATO, and Ukrainian negotiators need to pull off is finding a foreign policy "victory" that Putin can hold aloft to demonstrate that this all hasn't been for nothing, and that he didn't back down. Obviously things like just letting Russia send tanks into the Donbas without consequences aren't an option. Neither is the "gently caress you, you get nothing" strategy. But there's a lot of ground in between those two extremes. Working to build a new security framework in Europe that includes Russia and supplants NATO would probably be a good start. So would laying the groundwork for new arms control/reduction treaties. There would probably have to be more confidence-building measures, including a renegotiation/clarification of the language in Minsk II (which, yes, would become Minsk III), but there are ways of going about that which could potentially save face for everyone involved.
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Feb 18, 2022 00:50
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mdemone posted:https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1494441943803183105?s=20&t=oaJ-6WgJDn_KHW6RmSWh6w For context, this person is in the occupied part of Donbas, and supports DNR.
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Feb 18, 2022 01:04
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These ceasefire violations sure are new and fancy. It would appear I was wrong when I said wed see the invasion occur after a few 0 ceasefire days. I would expect the Russian offensive would utilize a cooling off period of a week or so to catch the Ukrainian Military off guard. However now it would seem the Russia wants to increase the violations as a method of justification. As in OH the Ukrainians shot back therefore war! WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 01:44 on Feb 18, 2022 |
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Feb 18, 2022 01:32
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Majorian posted:Yeah, that's pretty much my read as well. I think the trick that U.S., NATO, and Ukrainian negotiators need to pull off is finding a foreign policy "victory" that Putin can hold aloft to demonstrate that this all hasn't been for nothing, and that he didn't back down. Obviously things like just letting Russia send tanks into the Donbas without consequences aren't an option. Neither is the "gently caress you, you get nothing" strategy. But there's a lot of ground in between those two extremes. Working to build a new security framework in Europe that includes Russia and supplants NATO would probably be a good start. So would laying the groundwork for new arms control/reduction treaties. There would probably have to be more confidence-building measures, including a renegotiation/clarification of the language in Minsk II (which, yes, would become Minsk III), but there are ways of going about that which could potentially save face for everyone involved. The thing is, the Ukrainians get the final say (as they should) on any of this. The US/NATO/EU can’t just tell them they will never be members or can’t have any further integration. The Ukrainians need to decide that, and afaik doing so would be political suicide for Zelensky. I agree with this tweet. https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1494450875963621411?s=21 Everyone seems to forget the Ukrainians themselves have agency here. It’s their country that is under attack.
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Feb 18, 2022 03:48
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Solaris 2.0 posted:The thing is, the Ukrainians get the final say (as they should) on any of this. The US/NATO/EU can’t just tell them they will never be members or can’t have any further integration. The Ukrainians need to decide that, and afaik doing so would be political suicide for Zelensky. I agree with this tweet.
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Feb 18, 2022 03:51
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:These ceasefire violations sure are new and fancy. Yeah the latter makes more sense, Casus belli isn't just about a fig leaf of legality on the international stage, it's also about how a war will be perceived back home. As much control as Putin has over Russia, he still needs something substantial to spin to start up a conflict that will severely impact his populace. Also, they can't sit on the knife-edge forever, deploying troops this far forward costs a ton of money and the troops will lose morale if they're doing nothing for months. I honestly expect we'll have our answer one way or the other within a month at most.
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Feb 18, 2022 03:56
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V. Illych L. posted:putin wants a big foreign policy victory because his present domestic policy is not especially popular. there's no particular reason to think that he's not perfectly sincere about not wanting NATO to expand eastwards. But that's already the status quo since 2014. Aside from actual recognition anyway.
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Feb 18, 2022 04:43
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Shhhh I don't think that Ukraine is going to lock down the cities in a final city state hurrah. Id think the overwhelming force would cause most people's sanity to weigh weiwring a Russian armband over being killed and starved to death in a terror bombing campaign. I'd just like to note that never in the entire history of terror/saturation bombing has it ever achieved any effect on morale other than hardening civilian's resolve that the war must still be fought.
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Feb 18, 2022 04:56
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