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Conspiratiorist posted:Stop providing hard timetables that they have no way to back, stop flipflopping on the language they use when providing said timetables, stop sensationalizing likely Russian invasion objectives (they are targeting Kyiv, Kyiv will fall in 72 hours!), and should actually coordinate on messaging with the Ukrainian government rather than sidestepping them entirely. There haven't been timetables from the government. Specific days or timetables are, as far as I can tell, universally coming from background sources.
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Feb 19, 2022 03:34
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Does bidens comment "in the next few days" from today meet your definition of a hard timetable?
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Feb 19, 2022 03:35
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I've been reasonably confident, though not totally sure, that war is likely for probably a week or so now. But the Biden administration has certainly discredited itself with the incessantly changing timetable for invasion. Beyond why it's wise to treat anything coming out of Washington with immediate skepticism, the way Joe has handled this adds yet another layer of doubt to anything the American foreign policy apparatus has to say.
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Feb 19, 2022 03:35
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Discendo Vox posted:There haven't been timetables from the government. Specific days or timetables are, as far as I can tell, universally coming from background sources. https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...er-live-updates quote:President Joe Biden said that he is “convinced” that Vladimir Putin has “made the decision” to invade Ukraine, an invasion that might come in the next days, based on US intelligence. If Biden doesn’t count as “the government” then we have nothing more to talk about.
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Feb 19, 2022 03:37
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A big flaming stink posted:Does bidens comment "in the next few days" from today meet your definition of a hard timetable? No, because it's the exact same misrepresentation of media coverage that occurred previously in this thread, which ascribed background quotes with specific numbers to the administration...and you're also misrepresenting in your selective quote from Biden, which was "My sense is it will happen in the next several days", with several additional caveating statements before and after.
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Feb 19, 2022 03:40
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https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1488938463890137092
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Feb 19, 2022 03:41
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Boris Galerkin posted:https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...er-live-updates That seems like absolutely anything but a concrete timetable?
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Feb 19, 2022 03:41
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Boris Galerkin posted:https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...er-live-updates You appear to be ignoring the word "might", and the very next sentence of that article.
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Feb 19, 2022 03:41
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TipTow posted:I've been reasonably confident, though not totally sure, that war is likely for probably a week or so now. But the Biden administration has certainly discredited itself with the incessantly changing timetable for invasion. Beyond why it's wise to treat anything coming out of Washington with immediate skepticism, the way Joe has handled this adds yet another layer of doubt to anything the American foreign policy apparatus has to say. How has the time table changed? Last week the said the invasion was coming "next week" and now they're claiming it's coming in the next few days. Sure, they could still be wrong but there's no way you know that beyond a hunch. And the whole point of this is calling out Putin ahead of time to make him look awful if he does an invasion. The administration doesn't care if they're wrong because they'd rather be wrong about an invasion than for one to actually occur.
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Feb 19, 2022 03:43
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Discendo Vox posted:No, because it's the exact same misrepresentation of media coverage that occurred previously in this thread, which ascribed background quotes with specific numbers to the administration...and you're also misrepresenting in your selective quote from Biden, which was "My sense is it will happen in the next several days", with several additional caveating statements before and after. considering government sources were feeding the press this information which they then repeated uncritically this is a meaningless distinction
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Feb 19, 2022 03:45
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Paladinus posted:Because Ukrainian government officials, including the president, explicitly say they are not happy with America's messaging. Maybe it's all coordinated to make Russia think there is a drift between America and Ukraine, and somehow provoke a mistake from Russia, but it sure doesn't look like it to a casual observer. Didn't this discord quite down the last week? Mind, my perspective is mostly danish media and this thread.
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Feb 19, 2022 03:45
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:How has the time table changed? Last week the said the invasion was coming "next week" and now they're claiming it's coming in the next few days. Sure, they could still be wrong but there's no way you know that beyond a hunch. It's been "imminent" and "a few days" for several days. I understand fog of war and all but with the confidence they've been trying to project it still hasn't happened yet and the longer it doesn't the worse they look. Again, I do think war is likely. I'm talking how the U.S. administration appears in all this, which is to say fairly incredible. Crosby B. Alfred posted:And the whole point of this is calling out Putin ahead of time to make him look awful if he does an invasion. The administration doesn't care if they're wrong because they'd rather be wrong about an invasion than for one to actually occur. I strongly disagree that the administration doesn't care if they're wrong. The administration looks utterly bumbling and incompetent on all fronts. Bungling this crisis in any way is going to be yet another loss for Biden, and frankly it looks like it's going to be bungled one way or another at this point.
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Feb 19, 2022 03:56
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Bathtub Cheese posted:considering government sources were feeding the press this information which they then repeated uncritically this is a meaningless distinction The distinction is that government sources keep saying, "It is more possible than ever that this thing will happen. It may happen as soon as ____," which media then reports, "It could happen as soon as _____," which gets headlined as, "Government says it's happening on _____ <rising intonation>" which then gets tweeted as "President Biden says it will happen on ____." I don't know how to escape that vortex, and I think that the US Government is more than happy to have it reported that way since the individuals in US Government get to be technically correct, but incentivizes avoiding hostilities. Each time it happens, it permits Putin to 'score' on the US by meeting state department objectives: not going to war. State department wants to incentivize avoiding hostilities like this, but the cycle probably can't go on forever, and de-escalation will need to come from something other than this.
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Feb 19, 2022 03:58
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TipTow posted:I strongly disagree that the administration doesn't care if they're wrong. The administration looks utterly bumbling and incompetent on all fronts. Bungling this crisis in any way is going to be yet another loss for Biden, and frankly it looks like it's going to be bungled one way or another at this point. I think this is a weird situation where individuals in the administration look fine since they're using very specific language and letting media convert it. It makes the overall administration look bad without harming any reputation within it, except for maybe Biden's.
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Feb 19, 2022 03:59
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Also, it's not like Biden is saying "wow sure looks like there might be an invasion" in a vacuum. There are also, you know, hundreds of thousands of Russian troops amassed on the border, surrounding Ukraine. And the warnings about false flag events has been proven right too.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:02
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coelomate posted:
Sorry when did this happen ?
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Feb 19, 2022 04:03
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A big flaming stink posted:Sorry when did this happen ? Read the thread a few pages back and you'll see plenty of sources and posts discussing things, like the shelling of a kindergarten yesterday.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:04
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Discendo Vox posted:There haven't been timetables from the government. Specific days or timetables are, as far as I can tell, universally coming from background sources. It's often hard to tell when a background source is Joe Biden wearing a fake mustache or some random CIA dude that thinks their particular analysis is better than the official line.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:05
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Read the thread a few pages back and you'll see plenty of sources and posts discussing things, like the shelling of a kindergarten yesterday. Sorry again, but how does that constitute a "false flag"? like I won't argue that's pretty hosed but that doesn't appear anywhere close to the definition of false flag, as far as I understand it
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Feb 19, 2022 04:06
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A big flaming stink posted:Sorry again, but how does that constitute a "false flag"? Because Russia did it and then pointed at Ukraine and said they did it.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:08
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A big flaming stink posted:Sorry again, but how does that constitute a "false flag"? They shelled a kindergarten in the government-controlled and then tried to sell that as if the government forces shelled a kindergarten in their territory. Are you taking issue here with them not shelling their own kindergarten here?
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Feb 19, 2022 04:10
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A big flaming stink posted:Sorry again, but how does that constitute a "false flag"? Tell us your definition of a false flag then so we can figure out why you're having such a hard time understanding what's going on in the Donbas.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:11
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I've looked into the kindergarten thing and haven't even bothered to bring it up because it's transparent nonsense on every front. It's not even a specific false flag the Biden administration has called out or leaked. Hell, the mere fact that they believe there will be attempts at false flags - which there always are in every single armed conflict - could've been communicated better.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:14
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Donbas is 8 straight years of Ukraine and DPR/LPR/Russia blaming each other for ceasefire violations and staging ceasefire violations.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:16
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Paladinus posted:Because Ukrainian government officials, including the president, explicitly say they are not happy with America's messaging. It's crazy that goons are willing to uncritically accept Zelenskyy openly stating that he's not happy with international messaging about the possibility of war because of its effect on ~*the economy*~. "Hey, would you all shut up about the hundred thousand troops at our border? It's making the almighty number go down." I personally think the US has a duty to share its intelligence with the residents of fellow nations, which I'll acknowledge is not a universally-held belief, but it certainly has a duty to its own citizens to do so. We saw the inverse play out in the harried evacuation of Afghanistan, so ringing the alarm bells to get US citizens to safety seems like what a functioning government ought to be doing.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:17
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Conspiratiorist posted:I've looked into the kindergarten thing and haven't even bothered to bring it up because it's transparent nonsense on every front. Well if that wasn't enough, then you have the car bombing (that damaged nothing) that the insurgents had pre-recorded videos to blame Ukraine.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:18
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Wasn't enough for what?
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Feb 19, 2022 04:19
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Baronash posted:It's crazy that goons are willing to uncritically accept Zelenskyy openly stating that he's not happy with international messaging about the possibility of war because of its effect on ~*the economy*~. You may want to review the actual complaints Ukrainians made, and the reasoning behind them.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:19
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Baronash posted:It's crazy that goons are willing to uncritically accept Zelenskyy openly stating that he's not happy with international messaging about the possibility of war because of its effect on ~*the economy*~. I saw that as solely aimed at a domestic audience, leader steps up, calms the nation. Ukraine needs and wants US support in this situation, and the US wants to make it very very clear to the world that what ever happens, has been a calculated move from the beginning.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:21
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coelomate posted:Also, it's not like Biden is saying "wow sure looks like there might be an invasion" in a vacuum. Exactly this. The US is - without a doubt - deserving of skepticism in matters like this, but I’d wager an objective observer - after all of this military buildup - can come pretty drat close to the same conclusion without any input from the US.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:23
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cinci zoo sniper posted:You may want to review the actual complaints Ukrainians made, and the reasoning behind them. NPR posted:Speaking to foreign reporters in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, on Friday, Zelenskyy said Ukraine's economy had been damaged by what he said was a false perception that Ukraine is on the brink of war, calling decisions by the U.S. and the U.K. to withdraw families of embassy staff a "mistake."
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Feb 19, 2022 04:23
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Tell us your definition of a false flag then so we can figure out why you're having such a hard time understanding what's going on in the Donbas. My understanding of false flag is that it is used to manufacture a casual belli Sorry for the confusion from my unstated definition ....that sounds completely reasonable? like I don't get what's unbelievable about the president of a country not wanting their economy to get utterly trashed this goes doubly so if he does not believe an invasion is imminent A big flaming stink fucked around with this message at 04:31 on Feb 19, 2022 |
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Feb 19, 2022 04:26
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A big flaming stink posted:My understanding of false flag is that it is used to manufacture a casual belli Sorry again, but how does that constitute a casual belli?
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Feb 19, 2022 04:33
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Another dumb q: at what point do things start going past the point of no return? It seems like everyone can still sorta walk away from this with their face being saved? Or are we still trying to figure out if Putin is dead set on Ukraine and is seeing if he can do it without doing a land war, but absolutely willing to go the mile if he needs to? Extreme 101 q apologies for it.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:33
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Does everyone not understand that Biden in the United States government doesn't actually care if they're wrong? The point is to put it to Russia to prove them wrong and thus far Russia has not proven them wrong. If Biden and the administration winds up being wrong and there's no war, they'll be a strong argument to be made that it was because the United States kept calling out Russian aggression every time it happened. If on the other hand the United States is wrong, that allows Russia to save face and everyone to say look how we overreacted. It's extremely calculated.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:34
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Ukraine v Russia: seeking some casual belli
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Feb 19, 2022 04:37
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Russia can take Mariupol and a couple other towns as part of a defensive action to ensure the safety of Russian citizens in the Crimean Peninsula and Eastern Ukraine and then call Western Leadership hysterical stupid idiot babies for claiming they'd turn Kyiv and Kharkiv into rubble. Extremely calculated. Everyone saves face.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:40
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buglord posted:Another dumb q: at what point do things start going past the point of no return? It seems like everyone can still sorta walk away from this with their face being saved? Something will happen, I have no doubt. Conspiratiorist posted:Extremely calculated. Everyone saves face. Except the dudes that got shot in the face. Trump fucked around with this message at 04:43 on Feb 19, 2022 |
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Feb 19, 2022 04:41
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A big flaming stink posted:
Yeah I think this is a fair read on his position, which i think is very boxed in. Also there’s a similar tone from the EU - see Draghi today on limiting potential sanctions bc of the sensitivity to energy prices in Europe right now. That being said - and I concede it’s a big counter factual- I think there’s a probability weighing that markets would make regardless of US opining. Capital is not exactly going to be flowing into a country that’s surrounded by Russian tanks in any case. If the worst outcome is averted here - or even never even was a real threat - it could be better off in the (relative) near term. This isn’t a trick that Putin can easily pull again and capital markets are starved for value right now.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:44
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Conspiratiorist posted:Russia can take Mariupol and a couple other towns as part of a defensive action to ensure the safety of Russian citizens in the Crimean Peninsula and Eastern Ukraine and then call Western Leadership hysterical stupid idiot babies for claiming they'd turn Kyiv and Kharkiv into rubble. Meanwhile there's a humanitarian crisis on both sides of the border.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:46
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