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It’s very funny seeing the same article every day for 2 and a half weeks now about how this is totally happening any day now, and the sick media bloodthirsty freaks edging to it.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:46
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buglord posted:Another dumb q: at what point do things start going past the point of no return? It seems like everyone can still sorta walk away from this with their face being saved? There is no hard "point of no return" as such. Things could stop now because Putin gets cold feet, troops withdraw, everyone goes home, back to the low level conflict that's been going on for nearly a decade. Russian troops could advance into Donbas, attack Ukrainian positions in the frontier with artillery and airstrikes, then broker a ceasefire and again everyone goes home. Russian troops advance into Ukrainian territory after 8-24 hours of artillery/airstrikes demolishing Ukrainian warfighting capability and begin securing a land route to Crimea including capturing Mariupol, then an internationally brokered ceasefire consolidates their gains and everyone goes home. I think that last one is as far as the conflict would go but it can keep getting worse, and it can in theory stop at any point prior since war is a ultimately a political decision. But I believe that decision has been made for weeks and negotiations have been performative.
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Feb 19, 2022 04:48
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Conspiratiorist posted:There is no hard "point of no return" as such. How much of a drain is this kind of deployment we are seeing, on Russian resources?
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Feb 19, 2022 04:56
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Playing Putin's advocate for a second, despite how chaotic things have been for the past few days, I don't think there have been many casualties yet. Broken gas pipes, blown up cars, holes in the walls? Yes. People in body bags? No.
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Feb 19, 2022 05:01
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I can't help but feel that Biden constantly going "they're about to do it" is some kind of international affairs version of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7C1Pr4AU2wc
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Feb 19, 2022 05:04
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Trump posted:How much of a drain is this kind of deployment we are seeing, on Russian resources? I'd have to ask someone else to run me cost estimates, but even with the >600B USD ForEx warchest they built-up prior this to make up for the difference, RusMil would be facing procurement problems for the next year or two just from all the vehicles, equipment, fuel and ammo spent/taken out of depot conditions. A lot of that is hard to replace or effectively irreplaceable.
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Feb 19, 2022 05:04
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BoldFace posted:Playing Putin's advocate for a second, despite how chaotic things have been for the past few days, I don't think there have been many casualties yet. Broken gas pipes, blown up cars, holes in the walls? Yes. People in body bags? No. I don't understand your point?
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Feb 19, 2022 05:04
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a lot of the reason that the US has been making so much noise is, more cynically, also that NATO wants to remind people that it exists and is important and that everyone should totally spend two percent of their budgets on buying toys from the US. NATO's been acting more aggressively in securing basing rights in northern europe for the past decade or so and definitely seems to want to stay relevant. at this point a million things can go wrong. there's very nervous warlike people, including outright psycho hypernationalists, in the field on both sides. it is very important when assessing this kind of information that we don't actually know who's made what decision - clearly there's been a central decision to increase shelling etc., but stuff like cars or pipes blowing up could be anything from covert action to some idiot on the ground deciding that this all looks like a good excuse for a war to simply an accident. it's going to get caught up in the propaganda churn either way. when the a russian anti-air system blew up an airliner the russians couldn't admit it - and this applies to everyone with things as tense as they are. if some ukrainian ultra does something stupid, the ukrainians cannot admit it either.
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Feb 19, 2022 05:05
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BoldFace posted:Playing Putin's advocate for a second, despite how chaotic things have been for the past few days, I don't think there have been many casualties yet. Broken gas pipes, blown up cars, holes in the walls? Yes. People in body bags? No. What? Edit for some content: I agree with the position stated earlier on the last page page that essentially the US and Biden have nothing to lose by constantly calling out Russian aggression or even the potential for it. Those of you who see all this as "bumbling" have a very odd perspective on how international relations function. At this point, I'd say just about everybody wins if Russia walks away. The Russians won't, this is going hot, but even so. Pook Good Mook posted:Does everyone not understand that Biden in the United States government doesn't actually care if they're wrong? The point is to put it to Russia to prove them wrong and thus far Russia has not proven them wrong. Double edit: The quote Giggle Goose fucked around with this message at 05:22 on Feb 19, 2022 |
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Feb 19, 2022 05:16
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Conspiratiorist posted:I'd have to ask someone else to run me cost estimates, but even with the >600B USD ForEx warchest they built-up prior this to make up for the difference, RusMil would be facing procurement problems for the next year or two just from all the vehicles, equipment, fuel and ammo spent/taken out of depot conditions. A lot of that is hard to replace or effectively irreplaceable. Wonder if it's more cost effective to use the material and stock in a limited war than to haul everything back.
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Feb 19, 2022 05:18
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It is, for a bunch of stuff. Still more expensive in munitions/equipment/personnel to actually commit but there's a good chunk of vehicles they mobilized that if nothing happened would just be abandoned.
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Feb 19, 2022 05:22
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https://twitter.com/ignis_fatum/status/1494873252463882240 Explosions reported near Mariupol. No reports of damage so likely Ukrainian counter-battery fire.
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Feb 19, 2022 06:18
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V. Illych L. posted:a lot of the reason that the US has been making so much noise is, more cynically, also that NATO wants to remind people that it exists and is important and that everyone should totally spend two percent of their budgets on buying toys from the US. NATO's been acting more aggressively in securing basing rights in northern europe for the past decade or so and definitely seems to want to stay relevant. Would actually be funny if Biden and Putin are in cahoots to scare Europe into buying a bunch of weapons and then they split all the profits. Next week they'll both be in the Bahamas drinking margaritas. One last job before retirement. Netflix get it greenlit!
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Feb 19, 2022 06:43
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GreyjoyBastard posted:While I agree the only invasion scenario that isn't fantastically stupid is one focused on the bits that are already de facto Russian-controlled, I could very easily see some limited land grabs tacked onto it. Particularly in the service of further securing Crimea. Is Crimea in question? I dont think that anything anyone can do will make Crimea, Ukrainian. Short of invasion and recolonization by them. Rodiel fucked around with this message at 07:26 on Feb 19, 2022 |
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Feb 19, 2022 07:14
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https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1494925173224583169?s=20&t=Y9CPeuE2F609Ai5YYJ4fQg https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1494919339249651713?s=20&t=Y9CPeuE2F609Ai5YYJ4fQg Was hoping things would stall or at least cool down, but alas.
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Feb 19, 2022 07:48
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DPR has announced a general mobilization. efb
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Feb 19, 2022 07:49
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Giggle Goose posted:Edit for some content: I agree with the position stated earlier on the last page page that essentially the US and Biden have nothing to lose by constantly calling out Russian aggression or even the potential for it. Those of you who see all this as "bumbling" have a very odd perspective on how international relations function. At this point, I'd say just about everybody wins if Russia walks away. The Russians won't, this is going hot, but even so. Biden hemorrhages credibility every time he says an invasion is imminent, and then it doesn't materialize. It makes him look like he's trying to manufacture consent, so he can make a war actually happen. It's the sort of language that the Marco Rubios of the West use when they beat the drums for war with Iran.
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Feb 19, 2022 07:50
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Majorian posted:Biden hemorrhages credibility every time he says an invasion is imminent, and then it doesn't materialize. It makes him look like he's trying to manufacture consent, so he can make a war actually happen. It's the sort of language that the Marco Rubios of the West use when they beat the drums for war with Iran. Does he lose credibility with people he ever actually had it with? That’s an honest question, I’m not being snarky. The criticism I’ve seen of what he’s doing largely comes from people who have little respect for anything he does in the first place.
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Feb 19, 2022 08:08
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raminasi posted:Does he lose credibility with people he ever actually had it with? That’s an honest question, I’m not being snarky. The criticism I’ve seen of what he’s doing largely comes from people who have little respect for anything he does in the first place. That's a fair question, and I mean, yeah, in terms of absolute numbers it's mostly people who already thought he was a warmongering idiot. The problem is, if the messaging from the Ukrainian government is any indication, he's also losing whatever credibility he may have had with key actors in this whole crisis. I was already going to post this, but your question gives me an excellent segue into it, so thanks!  So, I found this to be a pretty telling interview on the topic of manufacturing consent, misinformation, etc: https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1494008719947960321 Here's the quote that stuck out at me: (about 9:30 in) quote:SAWER: Putin’s Russia has been rather skillful at shaping narratives, at using their arguments and at times their propaganda in order to shape opinion, partly in their own country, but even more so in the West. I think that what the US administration in particular has been quite adept at in this crisis has been, first of all, corralling the West, coordinating and orchestrating a common Western response. And secondly, not allowing Putin to have it all his own way on the airwaves. This is a remarkable admission by a former intelligence chief, particularly one from a leading member of NATO and one of the Five Eyes. Sawer is effectively revealing that many of these leaks to the press and allied governments about an inevitable Russian invasion occurring literally any second now were not aimed at providing accurate intelligence. They were about "corralling" Western governments to rally behind NATO, and fighting Russian misinformation with their own brand of misinformation.
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Feb 19, 2022 08:38
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Rodiel posted:Is Crimea in question? I dont think that anything anyone can do will make Crimea, Ukrainian. Short of invasion and recolonization by them. I believe he means Russia securing a land bridge to Crimea - to ease the supply of water/electricity/etc (the former was pretty bad so far).
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Feb 19, 2022 08:40
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Majorian posted:This is a remarkable admission by a former intelligence chief, particularly one from a leading member of NATO and one of the Five Eyes. Sawer is effectively revealing that many of these leaks to the press and allied governments about an inevitable Russian invasion occurring literally any second now were not aimed at providing accurate intelligence. They were about "corralling" Western governments to rally behind NATO, and fighting Russian misinformation with their own brand of misinformation. I'm totally willing to buy that the CIA is junk and wrong, but this is just this guy's opinion. It's an informed opinion based on his understanding of how the intelligence community works, but it seems a bit much to call it an "admission." I sincerely doubt that he'd be saying this if it wasn't just speculation.
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Feb 19, 2022 08:47
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Majorian posted:Biden hemorrhages credibility every time he says an invasion is imminent, and then it doesn't materialize. It makes him look like he's trying to manufacture consent, so he can make a war actually happen. It's the sort of language that the Marco Rubios of the West use when they beat the drums for war with Iran. https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1494863649500168193 The intent is behind call out Russia is explicitly to defang any potential justification they might use to actually invade. It also gives an easy win for Russia to point to these as the US being hysterical when the invasion doesn't happen. It incentives Russia to not actually invade or to at least delay. What's the consent being manufactured here? The whole of NATO has ruled out a direct conflict with Russia in Ukraine, no one wants that.
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Feb 19, 2022 08:48
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Nobody wants that but their willingness to impose cost on Russia if they move ahead with it varies, and Washington wants everyone on the same page.
Conspiratiorist fucked around with this message at 08:55 on Feb 19, 2022 |
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Feb 19, 2022 08:51
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Concerned Citizen posted:I'm totally willing to buy that the CIA is junk and wrong, but this is just this guy's opinion. It's an informed opinion based on his understanding of how the intelligence community works, but it seems a bit much to call it an "admission." I sincerely doubt that he'd be saying this if it wasn't just speculation. The guy is also talking about two different things. Like, he talks about how the US has been good at corralling the west and then later he talks about how in his opinionsome (not all) of the intelligence is based on analysis of putin, not 'real' intelligence reports - whatever that distinction entails. It's not like he is saying there is no actual intelligence. Like, russia massing troops on the border, or building and sponsoring militias in donbas is obviously not just fake news used to manufacture consent and corral e west. Maybe the 'putin is going to invade right now' thing will make putin not do it, just so he can laugh about the stupid americans falling for his 4d chess trap. Great resolution, for the immediate anyway. Maybe decision has actually been made. I don't think that guys best guess is enough to say that the US is hoaxing the west into thinking that russia might attack.
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Feb 19, 2022 09:16
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https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1494945105110880258 A single shell fell on the Russian side of the border. Russian news are jumping on it.
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Feb 19, 2022 09:21
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Conspiratiorist posted:Nobody wants that but their willingness to impose cost on Russia if they move ahead with it varies, and Washington wants everyone on the same page. If that is what manufacturing consent is then I'm all for it in this case.
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Feb 19, 2022 09:24
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raminasi posted:Does he lose credibility with people he ever actually had it with? That’s an honest question, I’m not being snarky. The criticism I’ve seen of what he’s doing largely comes from people who have little respect for anything he does in the first place.
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Feb 19, 2022 09:28
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pippy posted:If that is what manufacturing consent is then I'm all for it in this case. My appraisal is that, noting I don't care about ~American Credibility~ or Biden looking like a fool, by selling the idea of a large-scale invasion as a virtual certainty to the Western public you grant Putin a bargaining chip he can use to consolidate his gains while negotiating a peace deal. Now it doesn't matter if he never intended to lay siege to Kyiv, because if he promises he won't if the international community concedes Y and Z while brokering an end to hostilities, those have to be considered tangible talking points by Western leadership for narrative/electoral reasons.
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Feb 19, 2022 09:37
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pippy posted:https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1494863649500168193 I honestly don’t see that as anything more than a lame post-hoc justification for the White House getting it wrong so many times in a row over this incident. Calling out Russia’s potential invasion strategies isn’t going to defang anything. If they invade, it’s going to largely follow the Georgia ‘08 model: breakaway region provokes the national government to send in the troops, Russia send in their troops and drive them off, and the breakaway region gets a new lease on life while weakening the national government. If that does end up happening (and I’m still skeptical), the whole “leaking it to the press so they put out another flurry of panicked pieces” model isn’t going to stop it. There are quicker ways of warning Zelensky. Majorian fucked around with this message at 09:48 on Feb 19, 2022 |
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Feb 19, 2022 09:45
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Conspiratiorist posted:My appraisal is that, noting I don't care about ~American Credibility~ or Biden looking like a fool, by selling the idea of a large-scale invasion as a virtual certainty to the Western public you grant Putin a bargaining chip he can use to consolidate his gains while negotiating a peace deal. But we're likely past the negotiation phase of this crisis and this didn't happen at all. Calling out Putin's invasion threat early seems to have exactly the opposite effect to the one you fear - alliance opinion has coalesced around imposing costs for aggression, NATO has been clear it won't make any concessions, Western public opinion is pretty unified around there being only one side responsible for tensions. Conversely, Putin has so obviously upped the ante that walking away with minor concessions would be a loss for him. I posted earlier and I still think that even an outright annexation of the donbass would be a failure outcome given the ambition and whats been put on the line.
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Feb 19, 2022 09:50
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Alchenar posted:But we're likely past the negotiation phase of this crisis and this didn't happen at all. Calling out Putin's invasion threat early seems to have exactly the opposite effect to the one you fear - alliance opinion has coalesced around imposing costs for aggression, NATO has been clear it won't make any concessions, Western public opinion is pretty unified around there being only one side responsible for tensions. You misunderstand: I meant after the shooting starts. Meanwhile NATO can't agree on what kind of sanctions to impose. Hell the US can't agree with itself on what kind of sanctions to impose. Conspiratiorist fucked around with this message at 09:55 on Feb 19, 2022 |
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Feb 19, 2022 09:53
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Conspiratiorist posted:You misunderstand: I meant after the shooting starts. Oh well in that case I don't think that it's relevant at all. When the shooting starts then the movement of forces will be proof in themselves of what the objective was. Also the Western line has been 'invasion carries costs, also it looks like you've positioned to threaten Kiev'. Nobody has actually linked costs to a defined invasion end state which I think is probably deliberate and gives the West some space to apply leverage and escalating costs for a return to status-quo-ante.
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Feb 19, 2022 09:57
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Conspiratiorist posted:https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1494945105110880258 Sounds like Sender Gleiwitz. Now Putin just has to decide when he will announce that they are officially shooting back. Conspiratiorist posted:You misunderstand: I meant after the shooting starts. One important factor is that public perception changes once the tanks roll - especially on live TV - which will hopefully ensure harsh sanctions. GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 11:21 on Feb 19, 2022 |
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Feb 19, 2022 11:19
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Is Mityakinskaya closer to separatist territories or to Kyiv-controlled ones?
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Feb 19, 2022 11:25
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Attempted NATO chlorine gas attack on Donetsk happened on the 8th already, huge if big https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1494980844024385540?t=o-DLbm8hqZBxlsi72SEpaQ&s=19
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Feb 19, 2022 11:35
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Conspiratiorist posted:https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1494945105110880258 Reminds ne of this: "The Shelling of Mainila was a military incident on 26 November 1939 in which the Soviet Union's Red Army shelled the Soviet village of Mainila near Beloostrov. The Soviet Union declared that the fire originated from Finland across the nearby border and claimed to have had losses in personnel." https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelling_of_Mainila
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Feb 19, 2022 11:59
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Majorian posted:I honestly don’t see that as anything more than a lame post-hoc justification for the White House getting it wrong so many times in a row over this incident. Calling out Russia’s potential invasion strategies isn’t going to defang anything. If they invade, it’s going to largely follow the Georgia ‘08 model: breakaway region provokes the national government to send in the troops, Russia send in their troops and drive them off, and the breakaway region gets a new lease on life while weakening the national government. If that does end up happening (and I’m still skeptical), the whole “leaking it to the press so they put out another flurry of panicked pieces” model isn’t going to stop it. There are quicker ways of warning Zelensky. So why would the US being wrong "make a war actually happen"?
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Feb 19, 2022 12:12
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Conspiratiorist posted:Meanwhile NATO can't agree on what kind of sanctions to impose.
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Feb 19, 2022 12:14
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Paladinus posted:Is Mityakinskaya closer to separatist territories or to Kyiv-controlled ones?  Edit: Supposed photos https://t.me/SIL0VIKI/41043
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Feb 19, 2022 12:21
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BoldFace posted:Playing Putin's advocate for a second, despite how chaotic things have been for the past few days, I don't think there have been many casualties yet. Broken gas pipes, blown up cars, holes in the walls? Yes. People in body bags? No. Ukraine vs Russia: Playing Putin's Advocate for a second... no but seriously, "... and?" the gently caress is your point
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Feb 19, 2022 12:26
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