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The people's militias and Russian elements in Donbas look to be baiting a large Ukrainian artillery response, both as part of the diplomatic justification for what happens next and ideally so they can fix their positions for the start of strike operations. This will go on for several hours while Russian formations around the border maneuver into position. Assuming this is it, then Russian EW systems will go up and 8-12 hours of airstrikes and later heavy volume artillery will begin.
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Feb 20, 2022 02:14
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Majorian posted:Yeah, and even then, that pro-Russian leader would probably get overthrown pretty quickly, especially since any uprising would likely be funded and supplied by NATO.
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Feb 20, 2022 02:29
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Budzilla posted:Why would you assume an uprising would be in NATO's interests? I could see individual countries backing up uprising overtly/covertly but uprisings are not part of modus operandi. NATO directly supported the Libyan uprising to overthrow Qadaffi just over a decade ago. But yes, I was mainly thinking of individual NATO member-states supporting an uprising through a number of different channels.
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Feb 20, 2022 02:33
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MrYenko posted:No pressure, team Finland. Finland plays 5 goalies keeping the score 0-0 ad infinitum thus delaying the war forever.
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Feb 20, 2022 02:40
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I've been reading a crap ton of pages of this thread starting from the beginning and I still don't understand why Russia wants to invade Ukraine. Is there no other reason than "they are getting too close to NATO"? Like are there any Russian sympathizers in the territory they want to claim?
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Feb 20, 2022 02:59
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Redgrendel2001 posted:Finland plays 5 goalies keeping the score 0-0 ad infinitum thus delaying the war forever. What position will the sixth guy be?
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Feb 20, 2022 02:59
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Doctor Butts posted:What position will the sixth guy be? A mascot carrying a sign with the casualty numbers from the Winter War.
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Feb 20, 2022 03:03
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1/28 2/19 
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Feb 20, 2022 03:06
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punk rebel ecks posted:I've been reading a crap ton of pages of this thread starting from the beginning and I still don't understand why Russia wants to invade Ukraine. Is there no other reason than "they are getting too close to NATO"? Like are there any Russian sympathizers in the territory they want to claim? My general feeling is that the perceived threat is less NATO and more about Ukraine drifting "westward" in terms of trade and economic ties to the EU. Threatening military action serves to scare off western capital and force Ukraine into de facto client state status. The conflict also lets Putin pretend to be standing tall against the "Decadent West" to inflame his brand of nationalism at home as well as reactionaries abroad. More complicated than that and probably not correct, but that's how my blurred vision has tended to settle throughout all this.
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Feb 20, 2022 03:07
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punk rebel ecks posted:I've been reading a crap ton of pages of this thread starting from the beginning and I still don't understand why Russia wants to invade Ukraine. Is there no other reason than "they are getting too close to NATO"? Like are there any Russian sympathizers in the territory they want to claim? I think the short reason is Russia is primarily driven by a desire to avoid strategic encirclement; similar to the paranoia that drove the foreign policy and weltpolitik of Wilheminian Germany; and since Russia, like Germany lacks soft power, they rely on ever increasing desperate acts of lashing out at the enemies they feel are closing in (paradoxically making that noose much worse). Ukraine joining NATO is seen as on par with short ranged nuclear missiles in Turkey, a dagger pointed at their throat; and all of their actions have been aimed at dividing the West, weakening their resolve, increasing energy dependence on Russia, creating confusion in the political processes etc; and creating a frozen conflict to forever freeze Ukraine's geopolitical situation to keep that eventuality at bay. In the more immediate term its about probably, shoring up and solidifying their gains; but Putin probably saw an opening to smash Ukraine and the West's commitments in a quick decisive act that will be over before christmas. I assume there's also an element of Putin only has so much time before he kicks it and wants to secure Russia's position before he does so that an internal power struggle doesn't erode those gains.
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Feb 20, 2022 03:07
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That's part of it, maybe even the major part, but if Putin leaves Ukraine alone and it should ever become an economically successful functioning democracy, Putin runs the significant risk of being color-revolutionized himself. Russians must perceive themselves to be threatened by NATO and the EU, in order to justify letting Putin run their country.
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Feb 20, 2022 03:15
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Life comes at you fast. I sincerely hope nothing happens for the sake of everyone involved, but from everything I've seen I just can't imagine the Russian military goes home tomorrow.
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Feb 20, 2022 03:16
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Hannibal Rex posted:That's part of it, maybe even the major part, but if Putin leaves Ukraine alone and it should ever become an economically successful functioning democracy, Putin runs the significant risk of being color-revolutionized himself. About that... 
Conspiratiorist fucked around with this message at 03:21 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 03:19
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Conspiratiorist posted:About that... It's insane how far they fell behind Belarus, especially considering it happened well before 2014. I guess one piece of poo poo dictator is actually better in some ways than a succession of corrupt morons.
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Feb 20, 2022 03:31
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Conspiratiorist posted:About that... almost as if the country is engulfed in a never-ending civil war funded by a nearby great power
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Feb 20, 2022 03:32
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Yeah, I know Ukraine’s been in the pits economically since before the revolution(s). That's why I qualified that statement. But the reason Ukrainians want to orient towards Europe is that remaining a Russian client would mean things stay like this forever, Westernizing at least is a change. They've probably put way too unrealistic hopes in that, even if Putin would let them.
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Feb 20, 2022 03:33
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Sinteres posted:It's insane how far they fell behind Belarus, especially considering it happened well before 2014. I guess one piece of poo poo dictator is actually better in some ways than a succession of corrupt morons. Yeah, it helped that Belarus mostly avoided shock therapy while Ukraine went head-first into it. Ukraine's manufacturing sector got wrecked in the 90s, while Batka kept control of everything and kept the factories running, even if they weren't terribly "efficient." As much of a buffoon as he can be, it looks like it was probably the right move, or at least a better one than privatizing everything. Hannibal Rex posted:Yeah, I know Ukraine’s been in the pits economically since before the revolution(s). That's why I qualified that statement. But the reason Ukrainians want to orient towards Europe is that remaining a Russian client would mean things stay like this forever, Westernizing at least is a change. Oh definitely, I think Ukraine trying to get into NATO and the EU have been 100% understandable, rational decisions. I'd want them to try if I lived there, too. It worked out pretty drat well for Poland, after all (even if the resurgence of the right there is not a good thing at all). The big example of geopolitical malpractice, IMO, was committed by the Bush Admin and the NATO leaders who promised Ukraine and Georgia a spot, even when they knew perfectly well that that wasn't a promise they could keep. Majorian fucked around with this message at 03:41 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 03:35
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Concerned Citizen posted:almost as if the country is engulfed in a never-ending civil war funded by a nearby great power
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Feb 20, 2022 03:40
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Hello thread. Has anyone made this style of post yet? If not may I say, if the missiles start flying, it's been a ride boys and girls. It's been a privilege having lived with you e: The armed warhead type of missiles not the test missiles, the latter of which have already started flying I don't know if I expected we would seriously test the concept of MAD during my lifetime, but here we are
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Feb 20, 2022 03:44
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Inner Light posted:Hello thread. Has anyone made this style of post yet? If not may I say, if the missiles start flying, it's been a ride boys and girls. It's been a privilege having lived with you There's not going to be a test of MAD. The U.S. isn't going to get directly involved, even if there is a full-on war between Russia and Ukraine. Nuclear war is completely off-the-table unless things go wrong in ways that absolutely nobody could predict.
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Feb 20, 2022 03:47
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Inner Light posted:Hello thread. Has anyone made this style of post yet? If not may I say, if the missiles start flying, it's been a ride boys and girls. It's been a privilege having lived with you One person did that I saw, and they shouldn't have either. The US isn't going to confront Russia militarily over Ukraine, so there's nothing to worry about in terms of WW3.
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Feb 20, 2022 03:48
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If Putin trys this poo poo with poland though....
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Feb 20, 2022 03:54
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Ban me if human civilization dies in nuclear hellfire. If not, make me a mod.
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Feb 20, 2022 03:58
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Despera posted:If Putin trys this poo poo with poland though.... Why would he? Poland's already in NATO and the EU, and it doesn't directly border Russia. Putin's a cynical, dishonest prick but he's not Hitler. He's not going to try to conquer Europe.
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Feb 20, 2022 04:02
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MrMojok posted:This thread is interesting I would take the article with a huge grain of salt. Most of those things sound plausible enough, sure, but I can't readily find anyone else reporting anything similar. I've never heard of neither Byelaruskaya Prauda or Yuri Baranevich before, and their website and telegram usually get close to zero traffic, it looks like.
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Feb 20, 2022 04:11
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Inner Light posted:Hello thread. Has anyone made this style of post yet? If not may I say, if the missiles start flying, it's been a ride boys and girls. It's been a privilege having lived with you I don't think anyone has, because it's a deeply embarrassing thing to post and nobody here is that stupid. e: nice av, Majorian. Somebody was absolutely fuming when they paid for that
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Feb 20, 2022 04:13
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I believe in the last thread probably 30 pages ago I predicted that the Russian army would start falling apart due to alcoholism. Glad to see my prediction rang true and now people are dropping dead from freezing to death. **I'm glad because an invasion is on the table. Not because I wish death on them. Dropping dead from alcoholism is horrific. But if it stops Ukraine from being wiped out I'm 100% for it. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 04:29 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 04:15
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There are many people who would deserve that red text, but Majorian isn't one of them. I frequently disagree with him but the dude is fundamentally chill, and that rarest of rare, a true good faith debater.
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Feb 20, 2022 04:20
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Grape posted:There are many people who would deserve that red text, but Majorian isn't one of them. 
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Feb 20, 2022 04:23
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MSB3000 posted:Ban me if human civilization dies in nuclear hellfire. If not, make me a mod. thats a bad deal, modding is a drag
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Feb 20, 2022 04:26
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Majorian posted:Why would he? Poland's already in NATO and the EU, and it doesn't directly border Russia. Putin's a cynical, dishonest prick but he's not Hitler. He's not going to try to conquer Europe. This is why it's so important to buttress the political cohesion of the defensive alliance and ensure there's no room for external powers to delude themselves that members might not actually abide by their security commitments. I didn't buy the text, btw, adding an easy-to-miss Internet Research Agency logo in the corner of an existing av is more my style.
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Feb 20, 2022 04:33
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Death of Stalin sucked anyway
Despera fucked around with this message at 04:47 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 04:41
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And you seriously dont remeber the times russia invaded poland
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Feb 20, 2022 04:43
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Despera posted:Death of Stalin sucked anyway Going to have to interject here and stand in defense of the movie because I thought it was very funny and well produced
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Feb 20, 2022 04:52
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Cugel the Clever posted:. Were either the obstacles to imperial aggrandizement removed or Putin to lose his inhibitions, one could easily imagine armies on the march to take what he can get. What on earth are you basing this on? It seems like you're seriously suggesting that without NATO Putin would be invading Poland or something Grape posted:There are many people who would deserve that red text, but Majorian isn't one of them. This is an odd way to look at it. Getting a red text from a thread like this isn't a punishment, it means you won. You made someone so mad they spent actual, real world money to try and have the last word because they can't think of an argument some plague rats fucked around with this message at 04:59 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 04:52
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Despera posted:And you seriously dont remeber the times russia invaded poland Of course I do. The last one happened over 80 years ago and there wasn't a buffer state in between the two countries. Epic High Five posted:Going to have to interject here and stand in defense of the movie because I thought it was very funny and well produced That is correct.
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Feb 20, 2022 04:52
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Cugel the Clever posted:I agree that the fears of a NATO/Russia conflict over the current crisis generally reflect either a shallow understanding of the events in motion or just outright paranoia. On this, though, I'd quibble that the obvious truth of "Putin isn't going to start a war with NATO in 2022" should not be taken as indication that his aspirations are limited by anything other than the state of the Russian economy and the alliances protecting Russia's former imperial subjects. Russia has long been at work trying to destabilize and divide Western nations and will maintain those pressures so long as Putin holds the reins of power. Were either the obstacles to imperial aggrandizement removed or Putin to lose his inhibitions, one could easily imagine armies on the march to take what he can get. I really don't think Russia has the manpower these days to take on Eastern Europe even if the US went home. Like yeah the Baltics would be in trouble, but assuming nuclear blackmail would be off the table (the UK and France would still exist), I wouldn't bet against Poland. Not that Poland could defeat Russia on the battlefield or anything, but even the Soviets wouldn't have occupied Eastern Europe the way they did without the devastation and total war circumstances of World War II. Today, even Ukraine's probably too big to comfortably digest, which is why only the most hysterical voices are talking about anything beyond Kiev. Despera posted:Death of Stalin sucked anyway 
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Feb 20, 2022 04:53
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Grammarchist posted:My general feeling is that the perceived threat is less NATO and more about Ukraine drifting "westward" in terms of trade and economic ties to the EU. Threatening military action serves to scare off western capital and force Ukraine into de facto client state status. The conflict also lets Putin pretend to be standing tall against the "Decadent West" to inflame his brand of nationalism at home as well as reactionaries abroad. Raenir Salazar posted:I think the short reason is Russia is primarily driven by a desire to avoid strategic encirclement; similar to the paranoia that drove the foreign policy and weltpolitik of Wilheminian Germany; and since Russia, like Germany lacks soft power, they rely on ever increasing desperate acts of lashing out at the enemies they feel are closing in (paradoxically making that noose much worse). I see. Thank you both.
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Feb 20, 2022 04:54
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Majorian posted:Nuclear war is completely off-the-table unless things go wrong in ways that absolutely nobody could predict. Have you learned nothing from 2020? How predictable were events in 2020? There is a reason this is considered the riskiest time since the Cold War, and the Cuban Missile Crisis, specifically in regards to nuclear war. Or do you disagree?
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Feb 20, 2022 04:56
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