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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://t.me/tass_agency/110777 Putin to decide today on LDNR recognition. Recognizing them with their full, claimed state territory no doubt, i.e. independent Donbas is going to be partly occupied by Ukraine.
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Feb 21, 2022 17:18
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Alchenar posted:By the time the Russian army is done there will definitely be no spirits left in Donbass
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Feb 21, 2022 17:19
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https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1495752667523551233?t=GOA5QRiE4EQMJr8t431eQQ&s=19 so when nbc says "confirmed" does that mean they've been able to verify the intel or just that they're acting as stenographers
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Feb 21, 2022 17:22
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https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1495793259230253062
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Feb 21, 2022 17:22
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^^ For the separatists, Ukrainians are The Occupiers.A big flaming stink posted:so when nbc says "confirmed" does that mean they've been able to verify the intel or just that they're acting as stenographers
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Feb 21, 2022 17:24
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A big flaming stink posted:https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1495752667523551233?t=GOA5QRiE4EQMJr8t431eQQ&s=19 NBC has confirmed that the U.S. said that thing, not the thing itself.
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Feb 21, 2022 17:25
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Does the yelling at the end translate to "Ahh! Those virile manly men of Donetsk have spotted our cowardly sneak attack! We must run away daintily!"
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Feb 21, 2022 17:26
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This makes much more sense as a war goal
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Feb 21, 2022 17:28
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Mooseontheloose posted:For the foreign policy experts out here... why challenge for Ukraine now? Why not do it when you had a friendly American President who would of let you do it and crumble NATO at the same time? quote:
quote:
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Feb 21, 2022 17:30
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Grape posted:Does the yelling at the end translate to "Ahh! Those virile manly men of Donetsk have spotted our cowardly sneak attack! We must run away daintily!" He scream about how he regrets his gay, Nazi and pluralistic worldview and finally understands the eternal wisdom of petro-fascist oligarchy BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:This makes much more sense as a war goal How does this make more sense? It gives Putin nothing except a devastated and underdeveloped regions to financially support and a shitton of sanctions. Ukraine is actually strengthened by no longer being engaged in an active war.
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Feb 21, 2022 17:33
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GABA ghoul posted:How does this make more sense? It gives Putin nothing except a devastated and underdeveloped regions to financially support and a shitton of sanctions. Ukraine is actually strengthened by no longer being engaged in an active war. It’s a war he can win decisively, but yeah; this is basically sticking your dick into a hornet nest to scoop some honey out.
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Feb 21, 2022 17:36
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GABA ghoul posted:He scream about how he regrets his gay, Nazi and pluralistic worldview and finally understands the eternal wisdom of petro-fascist oligarchy It actually seems possible to achieve vs Russia has its go at forever war
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Feb 21, 2022 17:36
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Like the truly sensible thing is “don’t piss off the gas and oil customers whose money you need to keep your government functional. Especially since you’ve already seen money problems bring your country down in living memory.” But if we have to choose insanity just expand and guarantee the independence of the Donbas separatists is less insane.
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Feb 21, 2022 17:40
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How does this make more sense? It gives Putin nothing except a devastated and underdeveloped regions to financially support and a shitton of sanctions. Ukraine is actually strengthened by no longer being engaged in an active war. [/quote] I was under the impression there were a lot of factories and mines in that region.
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Feb 21, 2022 17:44
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https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/status/1495778130459602946 Interesting. Kofman agrees that this is a trash deal for Russia to stop at, but he’s also convinced that they won’t stop just there.
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Feb 21, 2022 17:44
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Preoptopus posted:I was under the impression there were a lot of factories and mines in that region. Yeah there's a significant amount of industry in the Donbass region.
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Feb 21, 2022 17:46
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Preoptopus posted:I was under the impression there were a lot of factories and mines in that region. Yes, but their gain does amount to nothing of consequence on the scale of Russian economy, even if they pay nothing and face no consequences for it. Also half of the industrial sector there has been pillaged or is naturally decaying.
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Feb 21, 2022 17:46
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It makes sense if the threat of force is the only trick you have in the book and you've accidentally placed yourself in a position where you either have to follow through or lose the credibility of that trick.
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Feb 21, 2022 17:47
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Alchenar posted:It makes sense if the threat of force is the only trick you have in the book and you've accidentally placed yourself in a position where you either have to follow through or lose the credibility of that trick. I mean, the long and short is Russia is sabotaging and/or exiting a lot of agreements that heavily favor them to....back a separatist region that is more a financial liability than a benefit. Even if Russia goes full decapitation mode and takes Kyiv, none of this is going to be an immediate, or even possibly a long term benefit to them.
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Feb 21, 2022 17:51
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I think that recorded session with Putin and his subordinates demonstrates the same sort of epistemic closure and self-poisoning that happens with so many societies dominated by state propaganda. The rational part of the policy calculus doesn't seem worth assuming anymore.
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Feb 21, 2022 17:55
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CommieGIR posted:I mean, the long and short is Russia is sabotaging and/or exiting a lot of agreements that heavily favor them to....back a separatist region that is more a financial liability than a benefit. Yeah but Russia hasn't actually gotten what it really wants from those agreements, which is a Ukraine that is aligned to it rather than a Ukraine that is solidly in the EU/NATO camp and waiting for it to blink to join. They are looking for exactly what they are saying they are looking for, which is a guarantee that Ukraine stops leaning West. e: Keir Giles wrote this a year ago on how we see the world differently and keep getting surprised by Russia's choices https://twitter.com/KeirGiles/status/1495781478621454338
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Feb 21, 2022 17:56
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Discendo Vox posted:I think that recorded session with Putin and his subordinates demonstrates the same sort of epistemic closure and self-poisoning that happens with so many societies dominated by state propaganda. The rational part of the policy calculus doesn't seem worth assuming anymore. It demonstrated frankly that when you have a one man government the issue that always crops up with one man government which is that when the one man has a blind spot or is doing something stupid nobody will point that out to him or try to bring him to reason. A lot of dudes in the Russian government realize that invading is a colossally bad decision that is far more likely to backfire than have everything go right but they’re more willing to let it happen than to fall off a balcony after saying something and have it happen anyway
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Feb 21, 2022 18:01
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Discendo Vox posted:I think that recorded session with Putin and his subordinates demonstrates the same sort of epistemic closure and self-poisoning that happens with so many societies dominated by state propaganda. The rational part of the policy calculus doesn't seem worth assuming anymore. BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:It demonstrated frankly that when you have a one man government the issue that always crops up with one man government which is that when the one man has a blind spot or is doing something stupid nobody will point that out to him or try to bring him to reason. A lot of dudes in the Russian government realize that invading is a colossally bad decision that is far more likely to backfire than have everything go right but they’re more willing to let it happen than to fall off a balcony after saying something and have it happen anyway Yeah, you could see from the security circus that quite a few people did participate on a not necessarily metaphorical gunpoint.
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Feb 21, 2022 18:04
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What do folks here think about the idea that Russia has already made its point and gotten what it wants from all this. I read speculation that the goal was to essentially say they would be prepared to invade if Ukraine was further integrated into the West. This whole incident was just to prove that they were serious enough to set up all this, that there are some pretty serious raw feelings about how much NATO has expanded, and that Russia is prepared to do some pretty extreme things to prevent further expansion. Intuitively this doesn't really make sense to me. I would think the more real the threat of war, the more immediate the need to join a defensive alliance, surely. I feel like once you're in the defensive alliance with a nuclear power the possibility of war is simply off the table and that's that, nothing to worry about. That seems like a more desirable state of affairs (for everyone who's not Russia) after Russia's bluster. Am I being naive? I know there's issues with border disputes and other political considerations and gas pipelines and all that keeping Ukraine out of NATO currently, but those were already effective before Russia threatened an invasion. How is Russia's position more secure or advantageous after doing this? There are some thoughtful informed people in this thread so I'm hoping someone can shed some insight as to what might be going on. Even though I don't really get how threatening war could benefit Russia, every other possibility here makes even less sense to me. An invasion seems like it would be disastrous. I'm open to the idea that Russia is acting irrationally, but surely there's an internal logic and set of assumptions that make sense to them at least.
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Feb 21, 2022 18:25
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495811405756473361
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Feb 21, 2022 18:27
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It's 8:30ish Moscow time. Will have to be soon.
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Feb 21, 2022 18:29
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If you speak Russian, I recommend watching this totally normal conversation between two consenting adults, if you haven’t already https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status/1495789247860822020
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Feb 21, 2022 18:31
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cinci zoo sniper posted:If you speak Russian, I recommend watching this totally normal conversation between two consenting adults, if you haven’t already Am I wrong when I say this feels like a student who didn't study getting scolded by his teacher?
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Feb 21, 2022 18:36
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Epicurius posted:Am I wrong when I say this feels like a student who didn't study getting scolded by his teacher? seems like projection
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Feb 21, 2022 18:41
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Stalin had some nasty habits, like he would hold parties where he would make his subordinates drink lots of vodka while he only drank tea, then he would humiliate them in front of everyone. Also wake people up in the middle of the night by calling them and ordering to come to his office for an unplanned meeting (a phone ringing in the night could always also be a warning that the NKVD is coming to get you...). But even he wasn't sadistic enough to interrogate his ministers in live television.
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Feb 21, 2022 18:41
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Possible car bomb reported in Luhansk. https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1495815665118236674
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Feb 21, 2022 18:42
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Putin address "soon," per state media.
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Feb 21, 2022 18:44
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Loving all the watch watching on that council meeting.
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Feb 21, 2022 18:45
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cinci zoo sniper posted:If you speak Russian, I recommend watching this totally normal conversation between two consenting adults, if you haven’t already I don't even get why he picks on противном случае or goes on that tangent? What is wrong with the phrasing?
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Feb 21, 2022 18:47
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Conspiratiorist posted:Loving all the watch watching on that council meeting. "Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit on psilocybins"
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Feb 21, 2022 18:49
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synapse posted:seems like projection Quite possibly, I guess. Whats your take on the exchange?
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Feb 21, 2022 18:50
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Moon Slayer posted:Putin address "soon," per state media.
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Feb 21, 2022 18:51
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t-minus 8 minutes, by the sound of it.
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Feb 21, 2022 18:52
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So why are these guys scared to back Putin on this? Bucking your country’s leader on live TV seems like a good way to get punished or fired in most counties - what has them nervous enough to risk that?
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Feb 21, 2022 18:52
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Acebuckeye13 posted:Tanks and other AFVs are large, heavy vehicles that don't like to move very much. If well-maintained and a supply of adequate spares, they're more than capable of driving through extremely harsh terrain — but if they aren't maintained, breakdowns can be frequent and debilitating. Especially if there isn't a healthy supply of spare parts. This. Any large army is basically a small city whose sole industry is the production of incredible violence. If you think about it that way, it makes sense why moving a small city hundreds or even thousands of miles is hard and expensive.
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