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steinrokkan posted:Having your whole government marched before TV cameras at gunpoint so they can recite their written speeches declaring undying support for the Leader and The Plan = just trolling It basically is. He's trolling with human lives by the thousand but a specific amount of Russian FP is based around literal pettiness.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:24
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Scholz is dismayed. with any luck, his dismay will be upgraded to urging for caution by all parties and hoping for a diplomatic resolution to the current crisis
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Feb 21, 2022 19:24
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Rad Russian posted:I think the remaining hope now is that Biden says "no NATO in Ukraine ever" and Putin takes this as a win and goes home. Although I'm sure lots of people will continue to argue that tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians dying is a good sacrifice to make to ensure the freedom of NATO membership. Putin already has that. And Putin knows that. Its been repeatedly said that Ukraine is not going to be a NATO member. And all they've done is instigate more and say "This could all go away if you say the line again"
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Feb 21, 2022 19:24
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I wonder if the wests strategy to prevent an invasion is to constantly have high level talks with the Russians even if they don't think any breakthrough will happen. Like from what I understand Antony Blinkon is supposed to meet Lavrov in Europe later in the week. My guess is that Russia won't greenlight any invasion while talks like that are ongoing. So inevitably when those talks fail, someone like Macron or whoever can just engage with Putin again yet another round of last minute talks and keep this cycle going as long as possible.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:26
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QuoProQuid posted:with any luck, his dismay will be upgraded to urging for caution by all parties and hoping for a diplomatic resolution to the current crisis Next year's German Defence budget will have twice as much money set aside for procuring broomsticks!
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Feb 21, 2022 19:29
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CommieGIR posted:Putin already has that. And Putin knows that. Its been repeatedly said that Ukraine is not going to be a NATO member. And all they've done is instigate more and say "This could all go away if you say the line again" No one, to my knowledge, has ever said that. Ukraine is not currently eligible for NATO membership and won't be for a long time, but as far as I know everyone has stressed that they are welcome to apply whenever they want and their application will be considered (although such application will be pointless until they meet the requirements).
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Feb 21, 2022 19:30
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Deteriorata posted:No one, to my knowledge, has ever said that. Ukraine is not currently eligible for NATO membership and won't be for a long time, but as far as I know everyone has stressed that they are welcome to apply whenever they want and their application will be considered (although such application will be pointless until they meet the requirements). They are eligible for NATO membership.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:31
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Charliegrs posted:I wonder if the wests strategy to prevent an invasion is to constantly have high level talks with the Russians even if they don't think any breakthrough will happen. Like from what I understand Antony Blinkon is supposed to meet Lavrov in Europe later in the week. My guess is that Russia won't greenlight any invasion while talks like that are ongoing. So inevitably when those talks fail, someone like Macron or whoever can just engage with Putin again yet another round of last minute talks and keep this cycle going as long as possible. I assume the talks will be called off, since both Blinken-Lavrov and Biden-Putin talks are provisional, with the stated American conditions of no further aggression.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:31
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Rad Russian posted:I think the remaining hope now is that Biden says "no NATO in Ukraine ever" and Putin takes this as a win and goes home. This would certainly put an end to this mess. Anyway, Biden seems to hate Russia so much that I think it won't happen: his goal is to keep trolling Russia forever, he won't let the russians win this match. Biden is an old man with his mind stuck in the cold war era: he can't understand the real enemy for the U.S. for the next 50 yeas is/will be China, not Russia.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:32
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Conspiratiorist posted:They are eligible for NATO membership. Yes. Several members would veto. Zelensky knows this. So does Putin. Yet NATO membership is literally in the Ukrainian constitution. Zelensky has literally asked NATO just to be honest with him, and say what they all know to be true.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:32
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Conspiratiorist posted:They are eligible for NATO membership. Ok, I misphrased that. NATO has certain minimal economic and military requirements for membership that Ukraine is currently nowhere close to meeting and won't be for a long time. Ukraine is certainly eligible to apply, but not acceptable at the moment - with no aspersions that they will never be or cannot apply.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:33
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Knightsoul posted:This would certainly put an end to this mess. Are you living in some kind of alternate reality where Biden hasn't said exactly this very thing multiple times?
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Feb 21, 2022 19:33
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steinrokkan posted:Are you living in some kind of alternate reality where Biden hasn't said exactly this very thing multiple times? lol biden hasn't given a properly notarized document swearing that NATO will really never ever allow them in, or whatever the current goalpost is
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Feb 21, 2022 19:35
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Deteriorata posted:Ok, I misphrased that. NATO has certain minimal economic and military requirements for membership that Ukraine is currently nowhere close to meeting and won't be for a long time. Ukraine is certainly eligible to apply, but not acceptable at the moment - with no aspersions that they will never be or cannot apply. Ukraine is really hoping for EU over NATO right now. They want that economic connection with Europe. The stated goal was 2024-2025. And even then: Putin has made it clear it doesn't matter if we took NATO off the table. His view, and his government's stated view is Ukraine is a Russian territory, not a state. NATO membership or not, all that would change is Putin might not be able to do this incremental invasion, which is all this new statement is.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:36
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Knightsoul posted:This would certainly put an end to this mess I don't think it would. 2014 happened over Ukraine signing an association agreement with the EU, a Finlandized Ukraine is not acceptable to Putin
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Feb 21, 2022 19:37
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CommieGIR posted:Ukraine is really hoping for EU over NATO right now. They want that economic connection with Europe. The stated goal was 2024-2025. Noting that's 2024-25 to apply, with the process taking about 10 years to accession.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:37
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https://twitter.com/USRealityCheck/status/1495829687410511875 US News insists this is really happening and Putin is all but moving boots toward Kiev.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:37
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this is much funnier than even the initial "only putin gets a desk" arrangement looked https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1495829809318047747
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Feb 21, 2022 19:38
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Alchenar posted:Noting that's 2024-25 to apply, with the process taking about 10 years to accession. Yup. And they'll do the same thing and move further in I'd suspect in a year or two. Maybe it stops the invasion now, but its just a slow burning invasion.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:38
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He's speakin now
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Feb 21, 2022 19:42
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Kinda starting to think Putin is a bit of a dickhead about all of this
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Feb 21, 2022 19:43
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:US News insists this is really happening and Putin is all but moving boots toward Kiev. It is happening. The Ukrainian government now has to choose between peacefully ceding sovereignty over its territory or start shooting.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:43
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Conspiratiorist posted:It is happening. The ultimate game of "Got Your Nose" but they really did take your nose.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:43
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eke out posted:this is much funnier than even the initial "only putin gets a desk" arrangement looked Thesis:  Antithesis:  Synthesis: 
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Feb 21, 2022 19:46
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Am I hearing this right? Putin is saying "We're taking back what's rightfully ours"?
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Feb 21, 2022 19:46
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the RT translator kinda sucks but it seems like Putin is complaining about Lenin giving concessions to Ukrainian nationalists in 1922 as big mistakes
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Feb 21, 2022 19:47
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My Russian is horrifically bad but Putin seems to be making a case for why Ukraine's entire existence as a sovereign nation is essentially a paperwork error?
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Feb 21, 2022 19:47
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Ukraine was created by Vladimir Lenin, its 'architect', and basically would not exist except for his foolish mistakes
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Feb 21, 2022 19:49
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In a first step this changes nothing because Russia already controlled, defended and paid for these territories. The entire Minsk process was aimed at this - keep control, keep Ukraine out, stage a referendum in which nothing but the "republics" deciding to join Russia would have been acceptable/possible. He basically enforces what his goal was with Minsk II except without pretending to be a neutral third party and without the thin veil of a referendum over self-determination. Maybe this time France and Germany will notice, but probably not. The question is where he goes from there.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:49
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Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:My Russian is horrifically bad but Putin seems to be making a case for why Ukraine's entire existence as a sovereign nation is essentially a paperwork error? Yes. This isn't new, but in the context, its terrifying. Saying "actual decommuninisation" means eliminating Ukraine.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:49
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Rad Russian posted:I mean that's the loophole isn't it? They won't invade "Ukraine" they'll move troops up to the new border of the separatist regions. I'm sure Europe won't see it this way though. I don't think the plan was ever to go into Kiev or the rest of Ukraine, otherwise invasion would have happened weeks ago. Putin wants either assurance of no NATO in Ukraine or a buffer region there. It's just one further step of escalation among all the hundreds of steps seen before. It's even a pointless one to make at this specific moment, Putin could have given Donetsk and Luhansk recognition even before this massing of troops started. With the troops positioned on the border of course it is easier to persuade Ukraine not to even put up symbolic resistance to this recognition, because that would lead to further escalation. Which might happen regardless! I don't think that Putin has at any point defined to himself where this racket ends. He will keep pressing as long as he thinks he can get something out of it or at least continuing it doesn't cost him too much. Maybe he feels that this is enough and starts pulling troops home in a week. Or maybe he looks for something more to squeeze out of this. Or maybe EU and USA place sanctions that Putin feels need to be met with more than just counter-sanctions.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:49
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I'm sure Abkhazia#2 and Transinistria #2 will be totally thriving states and not extensions of Russia "led" by a political class whose sole purpose is siphoning whatever money daddy Putin sends their way.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:49
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Holy loving poo poo, this is insane. Watch his speech, dude lost his mind
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Feb 21, 2022 19:50
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GjMnTo85S4A Putin live address in English via RT. He's literally saying that modern Ukraine is entirely a creation of the Bolsheviks and the Soviet Union.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:50
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CommieGIR posted:Russia Troops have already been there, so nothing is really changing. OSNIT has tracked Russia units coming and going form the occupied Donbass regions for ages now. Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:The most interesting thing to see will be whether Russia will stop at the current contact line, or whether they'll push further into portions of Donesk and Lugansk that are now under Kyiv control. CommieGIR is correct, but relatively discreet unit movement is a big difference from pushing the front forward and eliminating plausible deniability; at this point, it's not at all clear that the current DNR/LNR front is actually held by Russian forces (and the separatists and Russia would absolutely deny that it is; Russia denies that there are any in Donbas at all, which is obviously false). Of course Russia is supplying and training them, but it would be a big escalation to actually park a bunch of units openly around Donetsk, for example, let alone actually pushing beyond the Minsk line.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:51
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Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:My Russian is horrifically bad but Putin seems to be making a case for why Ukraine's entire existence as a sovereign nation is essentially a paperwork error? He’s done that several times before, including in writing as recently as last year.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:51
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"Ukraine is created by Vladimir Lenin. He is its creator and architect. Including giving Donbass to Ukraine." - Vladimir Putin. "We like Decommunization but don't stop half way. We are ready to show Ukraine what total decommunization looks like." - Putin.
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Feb 21, 2022 19:51
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GABA ghoul posted:Holy loving poo poo, this is insane. Watch his speech, dude lost his mind I am happy yall are now getting the taste of a real botox grandpa and his amateur historian arc, not happy about the circumstances of course
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Feb 21, 2022 19:52
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Isn’t that… basically true though? (I’m sure my ‘basically’ is doing a fuckton of legwork there, but still)
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Feb 21, 2022 19:52
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Something isn't right, that's not the unhinged ramblings of someone who only wants to take Donbas
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Feb 21, 2022 19:52
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