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Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

Plastic_Gargoyle posted:

Was any of the message of this speech substantially different from that weird term paper that he put out sometime last year to explain why Ukraine was like, totally not a country?

I dunno, but there's a difference between just handing in a rushed and incoherent term paper and going on live TV to ramble through the contents for 50 minutes.

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cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Plastic_Gargoyle posted:

Was any of the message of this speech substantially different from that weird term paper that he put out sometime last year to explain why Ukraine was like, totally not a country?

It was not. More or less the same material, just delivered more aggressively and without oversight from an editorial team.

Gripweed
Nov 8, 2018

So is the re-formation of the Russian Empire on the table now?

Despera
Jun 6, 2011
Well blowing up the minsk agreement for one

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Folks, I think I got it. A figure skater accidentally took Putin's medication.

Panzeh
Nov 27, 2006

"..The high ground"
It's somewhat relieving to be vindicated that the ultimatum was not, in fact, really an offer to negotiate and that war was the intention though it is not really that relieving to know that a war is actually happening.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011
Since minsk is kaput ukraine could join NATO

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




OddObserver posted:

Folks, I think I got it. A figure skater accidentally took Putin's medication.

:golfclap:

Gripweed posted:

So is the re-formation of the Russian Empire on the table now?

We'll need to see where Russia takes this in actual policy. I see 4 options currently:

1) Conflict localizes to the current territory of the proxies
2) Russians broaden the scope to the statutory borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
3) They broaden the scope further, to some nebulous "historical Donbas", that will likely connect to Crimea
4) They just have a go at parts of Ukraine they haven't touched yet, which would be the proverbial Russian Empire case, especially if Putin goes for Kyiv and tries to halve/landlock/occupy the country

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

https://twitter.com/UkrWarReport/status/1495863498760503298

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Oh its solved diplomatically, all right.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

I am having a hard time deciding whose proposal is dumber.

BoldFace
Feb 28, 2011
https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1495859915952476173

Comstar
Apr 20, 2007

Are you happy now?

Alchenar posted:

https://twitter.com/DanielBerman2/status/1495848071858634753
...
https://twitter.com/DanielBerman2/status/1495848078863220740

I think this is good analysis, paritularly on why Munich/Hitler comparisons don't work. And this is why the 'what are the objectives of a potential invasion of Ukraine?' convesation is so difficult - Putin is looking for respect from the West and struggling to grasp how to get it.

This is an utterly wrong "analysis" of Hitler's wants. So anything this idiot says should be treated as suspect and probably wrong too.


The original tweeter too.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003
Taking aside security apparatus, if you are the rest of the Europe why they hell aren't you building up new energy infrastructure to finally have to not deal with Russia and petrolstate. Now more than ever is the time to bolster you're energy projects.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1495863121004670978?s=20&t=YrsDtc81GnG0VF_Od5YNrw

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Mooseontheloose posted:

Taking aside security apparatus, if you are the rest of the Europe why they hell aren't you building up new energy infrastructure to finally have to not deal with Russia and petrolstate. Now more than ever is the time to bolster you're energy projects.

nuclear power's bad, and so is fracking. its best just to outsource everything to places with far worse environmental guidelines.

eke out
Feb 24, 2013



Mooseontheloose posted:

Taking aside security apparatus, if you are the rest of the Europe why they hell aren't you building up new energy infrastructure to finally have to not deal with Russia and petrolstate. Now more than ever is the time to bolster you're energy projects.

last week France reversed course on nuclear energy and made a huge commitment to building a lot more over the next decade

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

nuclear power's bad, and so is fracking. its best just to outsource everything to places with far worse environmental guidelines.

Ironically I think the Russia issue explains France now backpedaling on their nuclear drawdown. They see the writing on the wall.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

at what point do the "russia will/won't invade ukraine" toxxes get triggered?

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

MOSCOW (AP) — The White House says President Joe Biden is ordering new sanctions on Moscow after Russia moved to recognize separatist eastern Ukraine regions.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Watch Biden jump the gun and sanction Russia on a feint. Then Putin can shrug and go well we have to Invade now

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Panzeh posted:

It's somewhat relieving to be vindicated that the ultimatum was not, in fact, really an offer to negotiate and that war was the intention though it is not really that relieving to know that a war is actually happening.

No serious attempt was made to negotiate, but I think it's pretty sad that the first thing on your mind was posting grievances.

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.
https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/status/1495864819882377224?t=R9J8-XaqcO2HiL14NZ50Xw&s=19

Sanctions probably going to escalate beyond initial announcements

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Mooseontheloose posted:

Taking aside security apparatus, if you are the rest of the Europe why they hell aren't you building up new energy infrastructure to finally have to not deal with Russia and petrolstate. Now more than ever is the time to bolster you're energy projects.

I mean, Germany just finished NordStream2. So now its connected directly to Russia, instead of having to go through... Ukraine.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011
The "wherez muh invasion" folks were pretty bad

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

MOSCOW (AP) — The White House says President Joe Biden is ordering new sanctions on Moscow after Russia moved to recognize separatist eastern Ukraine regions.

They are symbolic and sanctions on the non-existent U.S. companies operating in the Donetsk People's Republic. Not sanctions on Russia.

They don't do anything.

But, they did announce that they will be announcing something else later:

quote:

And the White House said it would "soon announce additional measures related to today's blatant violation of Russia's international commitments."

That might be something, but who knows.

Sir Bobert Fishbone
Jan 16, 2006

Beebort

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

MOSCOW (AP) — The White House says President Joe Biden is ordering new sanctions on Moscow after Russia moved to recognize separatist eastern Ukraine regions.

From what I saw, sanctions apply only to US persons doing business in LNR & DNR. Which I have to imagine is like maybe 3 people at this point?

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

MOSCOW (AP) — The White House says President Joe Biden is ordering new sanctions on Moscow after Russia moved to recognize separatist eastern Ukraine regions.

You got it dude the crazy old man speech was a well-planned feint from Putin the mastermind

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




QuoProQuid posted:

at what point do the "russia will/won't invade ukraine" toxxes get triggered?

This is a good question. I'll try to track them down, iirc we had 2 toxes - a pair of posters arguing for or against invasion, and someone else wanting to buy avatars.

As far as I'm concerned, invasion happens the second Russian troops officially cross into territory of Ukraine anywhere other than Crimea, which will be the working interpretation in the absence of more specific agreement between toxxers, unless CommieGIR disagrees.

BoldFace
Feb 28, 2011
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1495863322016722948

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

cinci zoo sniper posted:

This is a good question. I'll try to track them down, iirc we had 2 toxes - a pair of posters arguing for or against invasion, and someone else wanting to buy avatars.

As far as I'm concerned, invasion happens the second Russian troops officially cross into territory of Ukraine anywhere other than Crimea, which will be the working interpretation in the absence of more specific agreement between toxxers, unless CommieGIR disagrees.

I haven't toxxed, but Russian troops in the already existing borders of the separatist republics counting as a new invasion seems extremely petty to me, and not what people meant when they said invasion. Of course if there's a push to expand the separatist republics into the rest of their provinces, that's different.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011

Sinteres posted:

I haven't toxxed, but Russian troops in the already existing borders of the separatist republics counting as a new invasion seems extremely petty to me, and not what people meant when they said invasion.

That "separatist republics" is doing a lot of work

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Despera posted:

That "separatist republics" is doing a lot of work

On the pro-Russian side of the contact line, however you want to look at it. Everyone understood invasion to mean pushing beyond that.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Air France has cancelled flights to and from Kyiv, Ukraine, on Tuesday as a "precautionary measure," the airline confirmed to CNN. Lufthansa, Swiss International Air Lines, KLM, and Austrian Airlines have also suspended flights to and from Kyiv

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

Lmao, it's almost 4am on February 22nd. Zhirik knew, he knew

theghostpt
Sep 1, 2009
I am definitely very worried, I really hope this doesn't drag all of Europe into another war, I feel this is all to force Ukraine to answer and that will be used as the excuse Russia will use to go all out.

Koos Group
Mar 6, 2013

Sinteres posted:

I haven't toxxed, but Russian troops in the already existing borders of the separatist republics counting as a new invasion seems extremely petty to me, and not what people meant when they said invasion. Of course if there's a push to expand the separatist republics into the rest of their provinces, that's different.

Are there Russian troops in there already?

BoldFace
Feb 28, 2011
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1495868229553696770

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Sinteres posted:

I haven't toxxed, but Russian troops in the already existing borders of the separatist republics counting as a new invasion seems extremely petty to me, and not what people meant when they said invasion.

I don't mean the troops alreay in Ukraine. I mean a sizeable movement of troops currently in Russia entering Ukraine outside the proxy regions, or visibly reinforcing LDNR by, e.g., pushing the frontline with unseen force, or Russia announcing "we're sending BTGs 1 through 69 into DNR". Something else would be impractical to verify.

Most importantly, I'm quite certain I remember posters toxxing for invasion having their own definition for what counts, which will override any of my ideas if confirmed.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

theghostpt posted:

I am definitely very worried, I really hope this doesn't drag all of Europe into another war, I feel this is all to force Ukraine to answer and that will be used as the excuse Russia will use to go all out.

The EU countries specifically don't want Ukraine in NATO precisely because they don't care enough about Ukraine to want to uphold the security arrangement.

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Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Koos Group posted:

Are there Russian troops in there already?

This is from Wikipedia:

Ukraine, the United States, and some analysts consider 1st and 2nd Army Corps to be Russian formations under the command of the 8th Combined Arms Army,[14][15][16][17] which was formed up in 2017, in Novocherkassk, Rostov oblast. Although the Russian government often denies direct involvement, stating that their soldiers were there voluntarily and not under orders, some of them were captured with documents that said otherwise.

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