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Herstory Begins Now posted:I very much wish the 'no way putin would be stupid enough to do that' folks were right 
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Feb 22, 2022 05:43
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Maybe his unhinged rant was a bluff to coy Ukraine into submission.
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Feb 22, 2022 05:48
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Cugel the Clever posted:As someone who was firmly in the "Putin couldn't possibly be stupid enough to actually follow through, but we'd best do all we can to prepare for the worst" camp, I really wish I was right about Putin not being stupid. There's still an off ramp for him to declare his objectives achieved and simply not advance past the line of control, but the reports of his insane rant leave me worried I'll be waking up to videos of combat footage in the morning. For real. I was in the camp of "Putin is a heartless murderer, but he follows a logic based in an actual conception of security" Today I'm like, man maybe those hacks saying Putin's main goal is be big on map are exactly right
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Feb 22, 2022 05:51
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Well no one is actually going to do anything significant to oppose him so is it really that stupid? Similar tactics worked in Crimea and they'll work here. Just waltz in like you own the place, no one is going to do gently caress all apart from tut loudly. What's Putin's worse outcome here? A full on shooting war in Europe? I think he's correctly and logically come to the conclusion that no one in any position to do anything about it is going to commit to that on behalf of the Ukraine.
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Feb 22, 2022 06:01
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Illuminti posted:Well no one is actually going to do anything significant to oppose him so is it really that stupid? Similar tactics worked in Crimea and they'll work here. Just waltz in like you own the place, no one is going to do gently caress all apart from tut loudly. Worst realistic outcome is having to settle for annexation the two republics. Best for him is regime change and a friendly pal installed on a short leash in Kyiv
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Feb 22, 2022 06:04
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Ukraine v Russia: You do not, under any circumstances, "gotta hand it to him"
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Feb 22, 2022 06:04
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Illuminti posted:Well no one is actually going to do anything significant to oppose him so is it really that stupid? Similar tactics worked in Crimea and they'll work here. Just waltz in like you own the place, no one is going to do gently caress all apart from tut loudly. His biggest fear are sanctions that'd hurt state enterprise in a significant fashion, and he might have calculated they're either worth the risk or that they won't be forthcoming at all.
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Feb 22, 2022 06:06
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Seems like US and EU have agreed on sanctions and are going to announce them today. That was fast, but I guess all of this was expected already https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1495983004468105219?t=t2aIRjAO_IUl23-RmcSdiA&s=19 Also, stock markets are making GBS threads themselves everywhere, but especially in Russia
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Feb 22, 2022 06:07
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Conspiratiorist posted:they won't be forthcoming at all. Bingo. World leaders are already backpedaling. Sanctions against Russia hurt the EU. Putin will occupy Ukraine and get some stern words.
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Feb 22, 2022 06:08
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Young Freud posted:The quickest way to end this would be for England to nationalize the assets of Russian oligarchs in England. That would be amazing but no way it happens unfortunately. They attempted to assassinate a dissident IN England and the worst they did to punish them was kick out some diplomats, who were all spies anyway.
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Feb 22, 2022 06:09
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GABA ghoul posted:Seems like US and EU have agreed on sanctions and are going to announce them today. That was fast, but I guess all of this was expected already Are these are the full sanctions? If so than Putin has one less thing to hold him back
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Feb 22, 2022 06:10
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What effect if any might this all have on accelerating the reduction of European dependence on Russian oil and gas? I can see China and India supporting that as well, given their current and future plans for renewables supply chains.
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Feb 22, 2022 06:11
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Smeef posted:What effect if any might this all have on accelerating the reduction of European dependence on Russian oil and gas? I can see China and India supporting that as well, given their current and future plans for renewables supply chains. Doesn't Germany have a huge contract for more Russian oil? Isn't it more likely that the sanctions are designed not to interfere with the flow of oil?
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Feb 22, 2022 06:20
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FishBulbia posted:Are these are the full sanctions? If so than Putin has one less thing to hold him back The type of sanctions haven't been announced yet. I think NS2 might actually get iced today and they are keeping SWIFT back for if he goes for Kyiv(if they even gonna touch SWIFT at all), but we'll see. Germany is certainly freaked out by Putin's unhinged speech and the implications, maybe even as much as by the move on Donbas itself.
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Feb 22, 2022 06:22
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Smeef posted:What effect if any might this all have on accelerating the reduction of European dependence on Russian oil and gas? I can see China and India supporting that as well, given their current and future plans for renewables supply chains. It's unquestionably going to speed it up, but that's a 5-10 year process and even the fastest elements of the process still would take 1-2 years to complete
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Feb 22, 2022 06:24
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We could always ban Russia from the Eurovision song contest.
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Feb 22, 2022 06:31
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BoldFace posted:We could always ban Russia from the Eurovision song contest.
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Feb 22, 2022 06:35
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For the past couple days it seemed like the general vibe was "Putin is a MADMAN who is risking WW3 and the future of his entire country, any move he makes now will be a massive mistake" And then he went and did it and it's like, there might be some sanctions but otherwise there's nothing we can do about it.
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Feb 22, 2022 06:38
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This is a pretty fast replay that started past world wars, I really don't know what Putin thinks he will accomplish with this.
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Feb 22, 2022 06:42
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https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1495990787728887809?t=P4QM_LiJmnM8tbR_ah7RRg&s=19 It's morning in Europe and it seems like shelling started up again in Donbas, probably Donbas forces shelling their own territory again. Very bad sign, looks like Putin is far from done yet 
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Feb 22, 2022 06:45
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I have been provided a leaked list of the German sanctions, and they're quite something: 1. Russian nationals to pay 10% more for Berlin Film Festival tickets. 2. Russia banned from the Eurovision Grand Prix for a year. 3. No more curbside parking for Russian tanks, need to use parking garage. 4. German media might publish one article a month in which Putin isn't called "smart". 5. Putin cannot address the German parliament for 2 years. 6. Plan being set in motion to replace 15% of Russian gas imports by 2070. That'll show 'em!
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Feb 22, 2022 06:55
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A lot of the time when people get mad at activists it’s just hippy punching, but the German greens push to close nuclear power plants was a world historic gently caress up, and they deserve every unkind word said about themselves and then some for it.
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Feb 22, 2022 06:58
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https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1495858459878862853?t=W8ZWyPgJC2zErHIdgKtVqA&s=19 Looks more and more like they are icing NS2 this round already e: poo poo, that's an old twitt, disregard
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Feb 22, 2022 07:09
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Gripweed posted:For the past couple days it seemed like the general vibe was "Putin is a MADMAN who is risking WW3 and the future of his entire country, any move he makes now will be a massive mistake" And then he went and did it and it's like, there might be some sanctions but otherwise there's nothing we can do about it. I don't think anyone really thought WW3 was on the table, but the sanctions can easily be worse for Russia than big on map is good
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Feb 22, 2022 07:22
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https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1496007308371017732?t=GBB8tXwiN4uF2jmamqSeFA&s=19
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Feb 22, 2022 07:25
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Gripweed posted:For the past couple days it seemed like the general vibe was "Putin is a MADMAN who is risking WW3 and the future of his entire country, any move he makes now will be a massive mistake" And then he went and did it and it's like, there might be some sanctions but otherwise there's nothing we can do about it. he ain't really done it yet, the expectation is he's still working up to the it
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Feb 22, 2022 07:27
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https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496002237243572227 gently caress procedure lol lmao
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Feb 22, 2022 07:28
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Conspiratiorist posted:https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496002237243572227 Let's be honest. Was the Federal Council ever anything other a rubber stamp for Putin? We aren't talking about a government with checks and balances here.
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Feb 22, 2022 07:39
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Honest? Yeah, it was just going to be a rubber stamp, but as much as I've banged on the "this is 100% going to happen" drum it's also not something I actually want happening, so as we reach the finish line every hopped over step is ever more disheartening.
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Feb 22, 2022 07:43
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https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1496014521307213824?s=20&t=oBSkHBgxVAuaEi4Rq1rBfQ I have to think that battle line is still mined to hell and back.
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Feb 22, 2022 07:56
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1496014521307213824?s=20&t=oBSkHBgxVAuaEi4Rq1rBfQ Depends. Is Ukraine party to all the international agreements prohibiting land mines? And if they are, do they regret it now? Do not mistake this post for an endorsement of the use of land mines.
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Feb 22, 2022 07:58
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Shes Not Impressed posted:I have to think that battle line is still mined to hell and back. https://mobile.twitter.com/firatfstk/status/1495967572222779392 RusMil UR-77 mineclearer spotted at Donetsk.
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Feb 22, 2022 08:00
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Depends. Is Ukraine party to all the international agreements prohibiting land mines? And if they are, do they regret it now? Those areas in Eastern Ukraine are said to be the most mined in the world according to a UN report I think. Not sure which side though.
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Feb 22, 2022 08:00
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Those areas in Eastern Ukraine are said to be the most mined according to a UN report I think. Not sure which side though. A quick and dirty google search suggests Ukraine probably does have them and they aren't a signatory to any bans on using them, which given the current situation was probably the smart (if morally unpleasant to high-minded types not facing a Russian invasion) decision. Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 08:03 on Feb 22, 2022 |
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Feb 22, 2022 08:01
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Conspiratiorist posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/firatfstk/status/1495967572222779392 It really is jarring to see a massive armoured vehicle rolling past ads for Great Deals On Homewares
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Feb 22, 2022 08:09
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I'm now very curious what media people are consuming that they believe there's genuine concern of WW3 igniting from this crisis. It seems to be a common worry outside the thread, enough that people keep popping in to ask about it with apparent sincerity.
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Feb 22, 2022 08:09
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Cugel the Clever posted:I'm now very curious what media people are consuming that they believe there's genuine concern of WW3 igniting from this crisis. It seems to be a common worry outside the thread, enough that people keep popping in to ask about it with apparent sincerity. I mean, this was on CNN a couple days ago... https://twitter.com/carolinerkenny/status/1495558039646187521
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Feb 22, 2022 08:11
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Cugel the Clever posted:I'm now very curious what media people are consuming that they believe there's genuine concern of WW3 igniting from this crisis. It seems to be a common worry outside the thread, enough that people keep popping in to ask about it with apparent sincerity. The US is a warmongering psychopathic nuclear state with a habit of getting involved in a variety of conflicts across the world. There was a moderate WW3 scare back in 2016 irt a hawkish Clinton instituting a NFZ over Syria if she won. Now we have a conflict that Western media has been propping up as the biggest thing ever for 4 months, and regarding a country that as a deterrence strategy or what have you Western governments have signaled as being of critical interest. Now that things are actually popping off it's hard to match these two notions with the reality that in fact the West will simply throw Ukraine under the bus.
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Feb 22, 2022 08:15
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Cugel the Clever posted:I'm now very curious what media people are consuming that they believe there's genuine concern of WW3 igniting from this crisis. It seems to be a common worry outside the thread, enough that people keep popping in to ask about it with apparent sincerity. Unmet annexations of territory increases tensions. It's easy to stay out of the conflict when it's a proxy war in 1/8th of country with little consequence but for the involved parties. If it turns into a whole-sale war between Ukraine and Russia anything is on the table and the situation could deteriorate uncontrollably and rapidly.
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Feb 22, 2022 08:16
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Gripweed posted:For the past couple days it seemed like the general vibe was "Putin is a MADMAN who is risking WW3 and the future of his entire country, any move he makes now will be a massive mistake" And then he went and did it and it's like, there might be some sanctions but otherwise there's nothing we can do about it. This isn’t what people were worried about. What people were worried about is that he does this and then it sets an irreversible set of events in motion that lead to Russia and Ukraine starting to actively shoot at each other, and not in the vague deniable mortar fire sense but in the sense of tank bataillons rolling over the line of contact in Donbas (or elsewhere). Two weeks ago I would have said yesterday’s events are the worst possible outcome and I still think it will stop there, but … I’m now like 51% sure instead of the 98% sure I was two weeks ago.
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Feb 22, 2022 08:16
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