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Flavahbeast posted:The thing is, a lot of them truly believed that the threat of Putin invading was nonsense drummed up by Biden. Some are re-evaluating things after his speech today Perhaps they should have listened to people who actually know something about the issue, instead of relying on their gut instinct to turn it into another round of American smug self flagellation games and shut themselves off from observable reality. Ignorance by choice doesn't deserve sympathy, only condemnation.
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Feb 22, 2022 10:41
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https://twitter.com/ajabreaking/status/1496064694192377859?s=21 Zelensky is still saying that there will be no wider war with Russia and the Russians won’t escalate further
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Feb 22, 2022 11:13
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That's hopelessly vague, and not mirrored anywhere else as far as I can see.
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Feb 22, 2022 11:30
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Zelensky has persistently been 2-3 weeks behind events in his public pronouncements.
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Feb 22, 2022 11:33
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A poster a few pages back made the comment that the most effective sanctions would be repossessing the laundered assets of the Russian oligarchy in western countries, I know it's politically not going to ever happen but I do sympathise with the idea. I wonder if that would actually help marshall a legitimate anti-Putin movement within Russia, so far it seems like his control is absolute but if the cost is just a bunch of Russian conscripts dying, they seem fine with that so far
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Feb 22, 2022 11:33
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boofhead posted:A poster a few pages back made the comment that the most effective sanctions would be repossessing the laundered assets of the Russian oligarchy in western countries, I know it's politically not going to ever happen but I do sympathise with the idea. I wonder if that would actually help marshall a legitimate anti-Putin movement within Russia, so far it seems like his control is absolute but if the cost is just a bunch of Russian conscripts dying, they seem fine with that so far UK finally scrapped Tier 1 visas, hopefully its a start
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Feb 22, 2022 11:38
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boofhead posted:A poster a few pages back made the comment that the most effective sanctions would be repossessing the laundered assets of the Russian oligarchy in western countries, I know it's politically not going to ever happen but I do sympathise with the idea. I wonder if that would actually help marshall a legitimate anti-Putin movement within Russia, so far it seems like his control is absolute but if the cost is just a bunch of Russian conscripts dying, they seem fine with that so far
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Feb 22, 2022 11:40
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fatherboxx posted:UK finally scrapped Tier 1 visas, hopefully its a start Wait, what?
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Feb 22, 2022 11:43
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Sounds like the Russian govt are only recognising the breakaway states within the current larea control rather than claiming the whole of the two oblasts. So basically status quo ante except the Russian soldiers are wearing their actual uniforms.
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Feb 22, 2022 11:47
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
Well duh, all their helmets were given away Delthalaz posted:Missiles in Cuba would also be pointless because they have nuclear submarines and having nearby missiles doesn’t accomplish anything that submarines don’t No, but even after the missile crisis in 1962 the Soviets maintained a naval station in Cuba. Surely much of it was propping Castro and just dickwaving at the Yanks, but having a safe port in western Atlantic also saves you from making the long trip back to Murmansk if you need some urgent repairs or, say, medevac on patrol. It was also a good place for signal intelligence back then. And it just allowed a stronger presence in the region. Also I'm sure the troops stationed there really missed the frozen shores of the Barents and Baltic.
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Feb 22, 2022 11:49
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I think it's so they can properly arm the two republics so they can finally make some gains, if Donetsk and Luhansk invades Ukraine then Russia can claim that they had nothing to do with it.
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Feb 22, 2022 11:50
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Kamrat posted:I think it's so they can properly arm the two republics so they can finally make some gains, if Donetsk and Luhansk invades Ukraine then Russia can claim that they had nothing to do with it. Nah that's been the game for the last 8 years. Russia looks like it's past that now, rhetorically they've laid the ground for whatever the next step is to be overt and Russian flagged. And they didn't have to mass their entire army around Ukraine just to push a couple of bridages into Donetsk and Luhansk.
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Feb 22, 2022 11:52
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Groda posted:Wait, what? https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60410844
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Feb 22, 2022 11:58
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a pipe smoking dog posted:Sounds like the Russian govt are only recognising the breakaway states within the current larea control rather than claiming the whole of the two oblasts. I've also seen the exact opposite claims from media. Apparently the language is deliberately vague and can be interpreted both ways. Hope someone digs up the actual text soon. Also, 400 out of 400 yes votes in Duma. 100% yes votes. Not even abstentions lol. Democracy in action
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Feb 22, 2022 11:59
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Complete EE noob here with some questions, since my country may enter the conflict: What are the, no bullshit, odds this will lead to a longer shooting war? I can't see Russia doing more than a week or two of firing this time around, but I'm really not an expert. Are there any truth to the rumors that many Russian units are losing effectiveness because of soldiers having untreated COVID?
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Feb 22, 2022 12:01
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https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1496078379426136064 I don't think Russia was expecting that.
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Feb 22, 2022 12:08
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Ah -- i was thinking of the Tier 1 work visa. Off topic, I haven't looked at UK immigration since a post-referendum / pre-Brexit implementation recruitment process, and hoooooly poo poo have they had to dial down the work visa requirements. The nuclear engineering job I was looking at wasn't paying enough to qualify for Tier 1 at the time.
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Feb 22, 2022 12:08
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GABA ghoul posted:I've also seen the exact opposite claims from media. Apparently the language is deliberately vague and can be interpreted both ways. Hope someone digs up the actual text soon. https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1496075653392834561 https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1496077705078611970 weird, this seems like a really important thing to get everyone on the same page for
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Feb 22, 2022 12:09
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Brown Moses posted:https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1496078379426136064 I can't emphasis enough how much people here are freaked out by that unhinged Putin rant. Everyone expected the Donbas recognition but not this. If he had just skipped the meltdown video, that might have saved NS2
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Feb 22, 2022 12:12
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Tias posted:What are the, no bullshit, odds this will lead to a longer shooting war? I can't see Russia doing more than a week or two of firing this time around, but I'm really not an expert. A) no one knows, except maybe Putin and maybe a few high level Russian commanders B) sounds very doubtful. They’re likely all vaccinated since they’re military, and also the soldiers are all young. It’s not dysentery.
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Feb 22, 2022 12:16
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Brown Moses posted:https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1496078379426136064 I wonder if Scholtz's career is going to survive this. Germany's slow roll into an energy crisis isn't going to be pretty.
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Feb 22, 2022 12:21
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Wonder if Germany will turn its nuclear reactors back on, that'd help
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Feb 22, 2022 12:24
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Illuminti posted:Well no one is actually going to do anything significant to oppose him so is it really that stupid? Similar tactics worked in Crimea and they'll work here. Just waltz in like you own the place, no one is going to do gently caress all apart from tut loudly. The Ukrainians are. They don't see it as the Ukraine.
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Feb 22, 2022 12:26
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Alchenar posted:Nah that's been the game for the last 8 years. Russia looks like it's past that now, rhetorically they've laid the ground for whatever the next step is to be overt and Russian flagged. And they didn't have to mass their entire army around Ukraine just to push a couple of bridages into Donetsk and Luhansk. I meant like properly arm and train the soldiers, what they've been doing for the past 8 years is hiding and doing stuff under the table, now that it's official they can really ramp it up. Plus if the Russian army is defending their territory the DPR and LPR can focus on being more aggressive. But hey... I don't know, I'm just speculating.
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Feb 22, 2022 12:26
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Kamrat posted:I think it's so they can properly arm the two republics so they can finally make some gains, if Donetsk and Luhansk invades Ukraine then Russia can claim that they had nothing to do with it. Ukraine is going to do tank backflips around this theoretical native warban from LDNR. They only exist due to professional Russian soldiers staffing the entire thing since its inception, and Russia legitimately rolling tanks in when Ukrainians gathered their bearings for a counter-offensive ways back. No amount of realistic arming of the mafia elements to independently break through existing Ukrainian ranks, what is there to say about holding any territory. Tias posted:Complete EE noob here with some questions, since my country may enter the conflict: Which would be your country here? No one is going to enter this in a shooting capacity. That said, chances for a longer shooting war are probably >50%. Rumours about 'rona ploughing through Russian ranks seem entirely unsubstantiated to me.
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Feb 22, 2022 12:27
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Denmark. Okay. It made the rounds for quite a bit, and considering how bad the Russian military sometimes has been at managing its personnel it didn't seem completely unrealistic.
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Feb 22, 2022 12:28
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Tias posted:Denmark. Your country is absolutely not entering the conflict to any extent more substantial than sending some rockets via PostNord.
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Feb 22, 2022 12:30
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Worth remembering that any time huge news is breaking, people wander in to d&d to read up on and get a feel for what is happening and idk it's entirely understandable that people hear 'new war in europe' and don't intrinsically understand exactly what scale that will be on I get people being worried about a big war, but calling it WW3 is really hyperbolic and dangerous as poo poo. Like the war with Ukraine has been going since 2014, and now people are being hysterical and calling it WW3 Willo567 fucked around with this message at 12:39 on Feb 22, 2022 |
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Feb 22, 2022 12:30
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a pipe smoking dog posted:Sounds like the Russian govt are only recognising the breakaway states within the current larea control rather than claiming the whole of the two oblasts. So basically status quo ante except the Russian soldiers are wearing their actual uniforms. The difference is that there are now going to be far more, far better armed soldiers with heavy equipment stationed in the regions, who have de facto torn apart the Minsk agreement, and are going to be constantly shelling the Ukrainian military, which won't be ever able to fire back or find any kind of reprieve out of sheer terror of reprisals. It isn't status quo, it's an attempt to sap the morale of the U. military, as well as the country as a whole, by placing it at the mercy of a malicious actor who openly disregards international law or diplomacy, and is explicit about his willingness to use extreme violence whenever he feels it is suited to his interests. Until now the threat was much more limited and curtailed by at least semi-observed agreements.
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Feb 22, 2022 12:32
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Tias posted:Denmark. NATO isn’t going to get involved. Our only worry in W Europe is electricity and heating prices going way up, and maybe lots of refugees depending on how things go, basically Yugoslavia 2.0 seems like the worst case scenario (which would be pretty bad). The whole Russian military probably did get COVID but it’s not going to take units out of action.
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Feb 22, 2022 12:33
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Your country is absolutely not entering the conflict to any extent more substantial than sending some rockets via PostNord. Hey, we'll probably have some photo ops for our hosed up fighter program! E: Gort posted:Wonder if Germany will turn its nuclear reactors back on, that'd help That really would kill Scholtz's career  Man, Germans hate nuclear power for some reason.
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Feb 22, 2022 12:34
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Saladman posted:NATO isn’t going to get involved. Our only worry in W Europe is electricity and heating prices going way up, and maybe lots of refugees depending on how things go, basically Yugoslavia 2.0 seems like the worst case scenario (which would be pretty bad). Western Europe doesn't really care about refugees if they're white. All the far right parties will talk about helping the poor Ukrainians settle in
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Feb 22, 2022 12:37
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Fruits of the sea posted:Hey, we'll probably have some photo ops for our hosed up fighter program! It must be better to have a nuclear reactor in your back yard than having Putin in your kitchen.
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Feb 22, 2022 12:37
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Kamrat posted:Western Europe doesn't really care about refugees if they're white. All the far right parties will talk about helping the poor Ukrainians settle in Lol, what? I guess you missed Brexit and the endless dehumanising of Poles
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Feb 22, 2022 12:41
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Kamrat posted:Western Europe doesn't really care about refugees if they're white. All the far right parties will talk about helping the poor Ukrainians settle in This is very much not true.
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Feb 22, 2022 12:43
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The idea that Western countries accept Eastern Europeans because they are "white" is ludicrous. Not just in Britain, and definitely not just regarding poles, that's just the best known cliché.
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Feb 22, 2022 12:44
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I think it has a lot more to do with relative wealth and level of education. Case in point: England making a big noise about welcoming Hong Kong residents. That's not to say they won't shoot themselves in the foot and make barriers for educated immigrants if they think it will score points with the base.
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Feb 22, 2022 12:44
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Yeah in the worst case scenarios there's going to be some awkward dynamics playing out in Poland where 'refugees bad' bumps up against 'be the country protecting victims of Russian aggression'. I suspect the latter is the one that will win out, with a lot of guilting France and Germany for money.
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Feb 22, 2022 12:45
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I think far right parties behave differently in different parts of Western Europe, I've never heard anything negative about eastern european immigrants around here at least, it's mostly just about Muslims (codeword for brown)
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Feb 22, 2022 12:46
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Kamrat posted:I think far right parties behave differently in different parts of Western Europe, I've never heard anything negative about eastern european immigrants around here at least, it's mostly just about Muslims (codeword for brown) I’ve heard second hand accounts from Poland, about populist resentments towards Ukrainians “taking all their jobs”, e.g., from a pal of mine living in Wrocław. Not sure how well does this translate to the rest of Poland and Eastern Europe. My personal guess would be that there’s going to be a nasty recoil after we feel with the initial surge, should such come.
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Feb 22, 2022 12:49
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