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Maybe its stockholm syndrome, but Intel realy feels like a solid value play at $45 (near a 4 year low right now). I threw another few hundred at it today since apparently I enjoy losing money
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Feb 18, 2022 21:24
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Intel is either AMD circa 2018 or IBM circa 2018 and good luck figuring out which. They have a compelling turnaround story and bad press means they're beaten down, but you won't know whether the story is legit or just a story for a couple years
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Feb 18, 2022 21:39
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I think Intel has room to fall still. I see more and more AMD offerings from vendors. I have someone pushing me to consider an Epyc for a loving Domain Controller. (Sorry no Intel is cheaper here and this is just going to be a DC not even a file server I don't need power I need a box that can run sever 2022). Look how far AMD fell after INTC took the crown from them. Now AMD only really had it for a pretty short period compared to Intel but I don't think that's going to matter as much as some people hope. I see big companies already getting on board with EPYC in data centers so there's no fear there. Intel's saving grace might be the chip shortage and that everything is going to sell. I do think they eventually bounce and are higher than here but how long is that? I bought AMD at $4, and it went down from there. I had a 50% loss at one point! The thing about catching knives is you often see it and they often keep falling much longer than you think. pixaal fucked around with this message at 21:47 on Feb 18, 2022 |
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Feb 18, 2022 21:44
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In the cloud space intel is still “faster” but AWS is pushing their take on ARM hard, with AMD as a value option.
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Feb 18, 2022 21:54
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Yeah Facebook Google Amazon are all rolling out ARM server offerings at lower prices. If your AWS bill is $250,000 a quarter (not at all crazy for a lot of companies) and all you need is a single compile flag to switch to ARM and save 10% on your compute bill it's something worth considering. It's not quite that easy but can be for a lot of internal products Intel on the consumer side hasn't produced a compelling consumer product since their development basically stalled out in 2014, but with SSDs people are able to wring a lot more life out of a laptop or workstation There was a brief uptick in sales due to covid WFH stuff but I think that ship has sailed Long term we need to on shore a lot of vehicle silicon and other stuff for national security; Raytheon TI probably do the lions share of stuff for the military but if we got in any kind of military conflict (even proxy) with China most automation projects would wither and die. It takes a long time to bring a fab plant online, so INTC is yeah, probably a long term play I think the market is going to recover-ish on Tuesday and $45 is about my max risk tolerance right now so I bought one share, hoping to make a $5-7 profit and cover today's lunch
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Feb 18, 2022 22:08
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ranbo das posted:Intel is either AMD circa 2018 or IBM circa 2018 and good luck figuring out which. As a former holder of Intel RSUs/SPP I wish I had sold it all around $60 and/or just converted it all to AMD over the last ten years. I would've done a lot better. That said I do know that Intel is hiring electrical engineers like crazy and making huge offers-- that they historically have never done. Our salaries were always well below average and our benefits were getting continuously cut while they told us they were remaining competitive with the industry. So, that is to say they've had a lot of attrition and at least in CPU design they have more job openings than I think they can fill. As far as I know Intel still makes a poo poo ton in the server/data center industry but I have a suspicion Arm is going to start eating their lunch. No idea what that means for the INTC share price but it has always seemed a little lower than it should be.
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Feb 18, 2022 23:43
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I tried gambling this year and just got my 1099. I don’t think I’m going to try gambling again this year.
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Feb 19, 2022 00:00
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Had nice wins this week on natural gas futures options and crude oil futures. Every really big media escalation in Ukraine had predictable reactions.
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Feb 19, 2022 00:04
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Yeah, I dont think anyone sees Intel taking back the datacenter performance/watt crown from AMD in the next couple years, including Intel themselves. Client laptop/desktop stuff they'll probably trade blows with AMD performance wise and that is a mature market that isnt growing YoY much (or, may shrink after the covid boom). But, Intel can way outbuild AMD and is still capacity constrained. A CPU that is a little less efficient is a lot better than one that is unavailable. The real question is if their foundry offering pans out - they actually seem quite serious this time and even bought a smaller player this week to expand their offerings. Its expensive to expand and even more expensive to attempt to retake the leading edge crown, which I assume is part of the reason their stock is hurting. It seems to me like the market is basically already pricing in their complete and utter failure to pick up any meaningful non-Intel customers, which is certainly possible. But if they do compete with TSMC, I can certainly see domestic players like Qualcomm, Amazon or Ampere building their ARM chips with Intel, which is a good hedge against potential x86 marketshare deterioration. If the foundry play works out, growth rates of 10-20% a year certainly seem possible within a few years with share prices ideally following. There also seems to be some political interest in big new industry subsidies in the form of the CHIPS act, which would probably be an overnight 10+% gain if passed.
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Feb 19, 2022 00:05
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If Taiwan conflict ever goes hot, intel will triple overnight.
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Feb 19, 2022 00:21
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drk posted:Yeah, I dont think anyone sees Intel taking back the datacenter performance/watt crown from AMD in the next couple years, including Intel themselves. Client laptop/desktop stuff they'll probably trade blows with AMD performance wise and that is a mature market that isnt growing YoY much (or, may shrink after the covid boom). But, Intel can way outbuild AMD and is still capacity constrained. A CPU that is a little less efficient is a lot better than one that is unavailable. I think this is intel’s only chance. Apple proved that they don’t need intel to design CPUs, just someone like TSMC to fab them. Other companies are going to follow suit. TSMC is basically running at 100% capacity and intel owns a shitton of their own fabs. If intel pivots correctly to fabing other people’s chips they just could make it. I still don’t trust intel right now. They got too comfortable and stopped investing properly in talent and R&D. They had some recent wins but not enough.
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Feb 19, 2022 00:36
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Residency Evil posted:I tried gambling this year and just got my 1099. I too just got my 1099 from my funny-money account... At least I can offset a good chunk of the LTCGs on the index funds I sold  
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Feb 19, 2022 00:53
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ranbo das posted:Intel is either AMD circa 2018 or IBM circa 2018 and good luck figuring out which. I really want to see how in the hell IBM is going to come back to market if ever. Their customers are often legacy stuck on their mainframes which still essentially do a fine job even with the costs involved but it isn't at all innovative at this point. And I don't understand any of IBM's cloud offerings... If anything, they'd probably make more money shifting their customers over to Azure charging them for the migration efforts and maintenance.
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Feb 19, 2022 01:04
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IBM is more of a services company in recent decades. They're not a pure cloud infra company, never have been. They're heavily pushing hybrid cloud, which is sorta like what you're suggesting, IBM Cloud as a companion to AWS/Azure/Google cloud stuff. That said, the company seems to be just totally uninspiring and a shadow of its former self.
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Feb 19, 2022 01:48
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When's Intel going to produce that discrete GPU they were talking about?
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Feb 19, 2022 01:54
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cum jabbar posted:When's Intel going to produce that discrete GPU they were talking about? Current rumor is March launch. Don’t expect it to shake up much though.
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Feb 19, 2022 02:20
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cum jabbar posted:When's Intel going to produce that discrete GPU they were talking about? We actually just got new info about that yesterday https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2022/02/intel-arc-desktop-gpus-are-coming-in-q2-but-dont-expect-them-to-end-the-gpu-shortage/
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Feb 19, 2022 02:41
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To clarify on the Intel turnaround potential catalyst, they were run by a string of MBAs for a couple years who cut salaries, R&D and cap investments to make revenue look good which worked for a bit, but ended up with them in their current position. Their new CEO is investing in all of the above, including making moves like buying up ASML machines, getting massive infusions of cash from the gov, opening up new fabs etc. All the moves you want him to make he's making, and Intel still prints a shitton of money. With a solid direction they could very quickly become a force again. With that said, all of these things take time. Like, multiple years to find out if these moves will pay off or it's all hot air. There is basically nothing compelling happening in the next year or two. I would say there's an even chance that in five years they're the biggest and best chip maker in the world, or all the investment doesn't really pan out and they're IBM 2.0. Either way the outcome will look obvious.
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Feb 20, 2022 06:19
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I'd say right now that barring China doing something with Taiwan, there is a zero percent chance that Intel is king of the castle in chip manufacture for the foreseeable future, and there is no real reason to believe they will somehow turn it around. It's AMD's game to lose right now in server and consumer, and Nvidia has a massive lead in all things besides SoC GPUs. Intel's most compelling chip right now in any market is 12400 - A budget chip that is competitive because it's priced right, but it's hardly the margin's they'd be making if Xeon Platinums were still desirable, and AMD is thoroughly thrashing those with Eypc. In the consumer space, Intel seems to be continuing their bet on big.LITTLE as an x86 solution, but I think that after 45w or so, the returns on that might as well be zero, and it's power profile at sub 40w tends to suffer. AMD meanwhile has decided to just slap a ton of cache directly on the chip, and is pushing forward with newer Zen chiplets. There is an opportunity here for AMD to trip if Zen eventually turns into Skylake, but there isn't a lot of evidence for that today, and even if there was, it's not like Intel has something in the chamber to retake the performance lead from consumers. Alder Lake was much better, than their previously 7 year old core architecture, but what we know suggests that Zen 4 is probably going to crush it. There is no space where Intel has an obvious win that just needs to be developed. Maybe their super power will be sheer quantity, but betting on perf as a their ace up their sleeve is a fools errand. Canine Blues Arooo fucked around with this message at 06:38 on Feb 20, 2022 |
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Feb 20, 2022 06:30
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Their super power is they are still like 5-6x the size of AMD in terms of raw cash they're pulling in. Everything you said is a major problem to be sure, but look at where AMD and Nvidia were 5 years ago in terms of narrative, and they didn't have tons of money to throw around The success story, if there is one, won't even start for another couple of years. But the point where there is a compelling narrative will be after the stock price has risen, not before. I think right now shares are pricing in a 0% chance of a turnaround, so there is some asymmetrical risk reward possibility. Disclaimer I don't own any Intel because I think it'll drop more and I want to pick some up in the 30s, and like i said i think this is a multi year play. AMD and Nvidia have both been great to me in the past, but I don't own any chip stock currently outside of indexes.
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Feb 20, 2022 07:16
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Think it takes longer to rehire/develop talent to compete again, they lost a lot. But at some point it'll definitely be a buy.....
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Feb 20, 2022 08:09
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Does intel ever rent out their foundries for other people’s chips?
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Feb 20, 2022 16:21
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Intel has tried in the past but my understanding is that their process and library is much more finicky than TSMC.
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Feb 20, 2022 17:01
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LibCrusher posted:Does intel ever rent out their foundries for other people’s chips? Not really, but it’s part of their current projected business plans.
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Feb 20, 2022 19:08
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https://twitter.com/topdowncharts/status/1495565634322984960 didn’t realize things had gotten that unbalanced
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Feb 21, 2022 04:22
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Oglethorpe posted:S&P 500 is on a batman-shaped recovery
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Feb 21, 2022 08:41
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You know how my account got these scars?
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Feb 21, 2022 16:16
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Woodchip posted:You know how my account got these scars? The relative silence in this thread is pretty telling - guessing everyone is doing like me and not even opening up their portfolio.
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Feb 22, 2022 15:41
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We all retired on our yachts OP
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Feb 22, 2022 15:48
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John F Bennett posted:We all retired on our yachts OP You guys got Yachts? All I got was some capital losses as a tax deduction.
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Feb 22, 2022 15:49
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vonManstein posted:The relative silence in this thread is pretty telling - guessing everyone is doing like me and not even opening up their portfolio. It’s just really hard to make any plays on the long side right now. We are in an environment where breakouts are almost always fake and fundamentals (still) don’t matter.
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Feb 22, 2022 17:17
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This market is DWAC
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Feb 22, 2022 17:25
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Oscar Wild posted:This market is DWAC DWAC always makes me think of the sword sound effect in Streets of Rage 2. DWAC DWAC DWAC
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Feb 22, 2022 18:11
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Suprising amount of support at $430
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Feb 22, 2022 18:29
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Hadlock posted:It's technically possible for SoFi to drop into the 13s and stay there until February but I would be very surprised if it hits 12  Not laughing at you, I'm laughing at my cost basis.
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Feb 22, 2022 19:59
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Bad news, the truck was driving over a bridge and the bridge collapsed
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Feb 22, 2022 20:11
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Cut off for the SPY low contest is in two days, at $420 I did not back up the truck but I'll admit I did walk down to the store and buy more 1/2024 $15C SOFI I have a feeling this week is going to shake or margin call a lot of new retail investors out of the market, especially if russian tanks start showing up on the evening news
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Feb 22, 2022 21:38
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At least they still have the stadium! (Man, I bet there is some correlation with buying a stadium name and poor performance. Looking at you, sports authority at mile high.)
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Feb 22, 2022 21:39
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Baddog posted:(Man, I bet there is some correlation with buying a stadium name and poor performance. Looking at you, sports authority at mile high.) https://www.businessinsider.com/the-enron-field-curse-why-you-should-steer-clear-of-companies-that-put-their-name-on-stadium-2012-1
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Feb 22, 2022 22:13
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Sand Monster posted:https://www.businessinsider.com/the-enron-field-curse-why-you-should-steer-clear-of-companies-that-put-their-name-on-stadium-2012-1 So I should buy it and name it the S and P 500 field?
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Feb 22, 2022 22:17
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