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nvm
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Feb 23, 2022 22:48
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| # ? May 28, 2024 22:17 |
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https://mobile.twitter.com/ArkadyOstrovsky/status/1496591824445706244 https://mobile.twitter.com/Andy_Scollick/status/1496538301167292424 I vouch for these. It'd be a horror show.
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Feb 23, 2022 22:48
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Conspiratiorist posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/ArkadyOstrovsky/status/1496591824445706244 At least Kharkov has experience completely rebuilding itself after a massive battle followed by ethnic cleansing. Ugh. And to everyone saying Zelensky should just ask Putin to name his price, gently caress off with that nonsense. The only way Ukraine doesn't get the clock turned back to 1985 (or 1920) is to make the experience as painful, long, and expensive for Russia as possible.
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Feb 23, 2022 22:55
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Its not like you can evacuate Kharkov now anyways. It is a city of over 1 million people, you can't empty that in 48 hours and they need the roads open for their army to go to the front line.
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Feb 23, 2022 22:56
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I hate asking this question but what are the chances that Ukraine can even afflict enough losses against Russia to make them withdraw or force a peace? Is there even a path to victory military for Ukraine?
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Feb 23, 2022 22:57
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Mooseontheloose posted:I hate asking this question but what are the chances that Ukraine can even afflict enough losses against Russia to make them withdraw or force a peace? Is there even a path to victory military for Ukraine? Zero. ED: Ukraine military didn't even mobilize. If Russia attacks tonight, they could conceivably go after all urban centers east of the Dnieper including Kyiv under the logic that they're under-garrisoned.
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Feb 23, 2022 22:57
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Conspiratiorist posted:Zero. Ya the only "win" possible is to make things extremely painful and drawn out for Russia and hope for internal and external pressures to take their toll. On a long enough time scale, Russian supremacy in indirect fire and air force are going to make a straight-forward fight basically unwinnable. It's always possible that Russia has some military disasters that make a military victory for them not possible, but Russia isn't going to "lose" a full war if that's where this goes. Pook Good Mook fucked around with this message at 23:07 on Feb 23, 2022 |
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Feb 23, 2022 23:00
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Ukraine's really grim strategic calculus is that the longer it can keep fighting the more the West will be shamed into more and more forceful sanctions.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:01
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Yeah, Russia has this in the bag. They already moved up a lot of artillery into the Donbas oblast. If they act it's gonna be bad for the Ukrainian military
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Feb 23, 2022 23:01
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Russian EW going up in Donbass.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:02
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Yeah, setting aside any specifics of this situation, asking why the side that's going to lose a war still fights it strikes at the very heart of why wars happen at all. There's more going on that can be solved by just having someone audit the armies and decide who would win on paper. Sheer inertia alone means that nobody (at least on the Ukrainian side) can stop a ton of violence from happening in the near future even if that was their singular their goal. That's part of what makes things like huge geopolitical alliances and strategic weapons so scary, because they have their own momentum and don't react like the perfectly rational game theory actors that politicians and war-planners occasionally treat them as.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:03
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Yeah the best case scenario is to force the Russians into urban combat and make them go block by block clearing out the opposition. And this best case is essentially hell on earth and you can imagine what will happen to civilians caught in the middle. Like that twitter guy said, Aleppo or Grozny
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Feb 23, 2022 23:04
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Alchenar posted:Ukraine's really grim strategic calculus is that the longer it can keep fighting the more the West will be shamed into more and more forceful sanctions. This should be paired with evacuations of people that will be most harmed by Russian occupation. If NATO can't fight then they should at least have to take responsibility for the refugees.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:05
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I feel like im dissociating lol Million of people i care about are going to get slaughtered in like the next week and there's absolutely nothing i can do but watch I don't even get to know that the cavalry's coming because the cavalry has explicitly and specifically decided that who cares about a few stupid slavs having a fight That would in most universes be me over there about to get gutted lol
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Feb 23, 2022 23:05
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quarantinethepast posted:This should be paired with evacuations of people that will be most harmed by Russian occupation. If NATO can't fight then they should at least have to take responsibility for the refugees. Poland already largely opened their borders and the US 82nd was put into place to help with possible evacuees coming across.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:05
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Mooseontheloose posted:I hate asking this question but what are the chances that Ukraine can even afflict enough losses against Russia to make them withdraw or force a peace? Is there even a path to victory military for Ukraine? My subjective feeling is that Putin’s dictatorship has a strong enough stranglehold on civic liberties that no amount of military casualties does pose a serious threat to him. It largely depends on what goals and tactics will be pursued.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:07
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CommieGIR posted:Poland already largely opened their borders and the US 82nd was put into place to help with possible evacuees coming across. To expand on this, can NATO intervene perhaps in a very targeted way to say "we're going to hold down this area in Ukraine to aid evacuations and will only attack for self-protection"? If that makes any sense.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:10
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quarantinethepast posted:This should be paired with evacuations of people that will be most harmed by Russian occupation. If NATO can't fight then they should at least have to take responsibility for the refugees. That's what Poland has been setting up to do. The Arab spring was the first series of conficts in which social media played a really big part but sharing was mostly confined to the region. The thing that's going to make this war feel really different for Americans/Europeans is that I expect Tiktok et al is going to be absolutely flooded with war imagery aimed at us. I don't think this war is going to be quietly ignorable for the West in the way that most people have no idea what Russia has done in Syria. I think this is the one where the West finally develops a popular consensus around drawing a line and digging in to do what it takes to contest Russia.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:10
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All this tragedy and misery because one broken idiot wants a stupid outdated empire.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:12
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 AS A REMINDER: IF VIOLENCE KICKS OFF YOU MUST SPOILER AND NMS/NWS TAG ANY VIOLENT IMAGERY OR VIDEO
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Feb 23, 2022 23:12
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quarantinethepast posted:To expand on this, can NATO intervene perhaps in a very targeted way to say "we're going to hold down this area in Ukraine to aid evacuations and will only attack for self-protection"? If that makes any sense. I highly doubt they would do that, but of all the ways NATO forces could end up in Ukraine this is the only one I could see happening. It would be extremely risky and NATO would have to tell Russia right now they intended to do this, and make some gesture proving that it is indeed only for evacuations and not military support. And for the sake of showing where the spectrum is, that was a reasonable though unlikely idea, and then there's this: https://twitter.com/MrGeorgeWallace/status/1496599704309665792
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Feb 23, 2022 23:13
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quarantinethepast posted:To expand on this, can NATO intervene perhaps in a very targeted way to say "we're going to hold down this area in Ukraine to aid evacuations and will only attack for self-protection"? If that makes any sense. They "can" do anything. They won't. The US declared that they'll abandon American citizens still in Ukraine. NATO will not intervene to create safe zones for non-NATO citizens.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:14
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Conspiratiorist posted:They "can" do anything. Yeah, the US was calling citizen in Ukraine in person a couple weeks back pushing them to leave and make travel plans, even offering free travel to GTFO.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:15
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cinci zoo sniper posted:My subjective feeling is that Putin’s dictatorship has a strong enough stranglehold on civic liberties that no amount of military casualties does pose a serious threat to him. It largely depends on what goals and tactics will be pursued. At the same time, any failures on the battlefield will be internalized by Putin. He'll blame things on his commanders, his troops, and his sycophants, but at the end of the day, he's going to withdrawal and isolate himself to escape from all the "incompetence". It may also aggravate any possible medical issues like his rumored Parkinson's.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:16
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Young Freud posted:At the same time, any failures on the battlefield will be internalized by Putin. He'll blame things on his commanders, his troops, and his sycophants, but at the end of the day, he's going to withdrawal and isolate himself to escape from all the "incompetence". It may also aggravate any possible medical issues like his rumored Parkinson's. Username/Post combo. https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1496607723768668162 EW going up as previously mentioned.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:21
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Mooseontheloose posted:I hate asking this question but what are the chances that Ukraine can even afflict enough losses against Russia to make them withdraw or force a peace? Is there even a path to victory military for Ukraine? ukraine has a pretty stout military. they've been resisting "russian" fighting for years now. russia overmatches ukraine in terms of sheer combat power but ukraine definitely can give russia some serious counterblows - probably not enough to cause russia to back off, but definitely enough to make russia bleed. part of what makes this crisis so chaotic is that it isn't going to be a clear imbalance like the coalition in iraq 1991, any serious fighting is going to happen in urban areas which means stacks of dead troops on both sides and an even higher stack of dead civilians the only one right now who can control the level of violence is putin, it depends on how far he wants to push and how many corpses he's willing to create to get there
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Feb 23, 2022 23:21
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CommieGIR posted:
Can you put this in the title as well, I doubt everyone is going the read the OP and if war kicks off this thread is going to start moving a mile a minute.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:22
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GABA ghoul posted:Putin is gonna go down in history as a butcher Not if he can dispose of the evidence. https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1496585861110059009?t=Ew1Mt38SS0HW55_iTX-lww&s=19
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Feb 23, 2022 23:24
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Kamrat posted:Can you put this in the title as well, I doubt everyone is going the read the OP and if war kicks off this thread is going to start moving a mile a minute. Sadly I doubt that it'll fit.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:24
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projecthalaxy posted:I feel like im dissociating lol This sucks, horribly, and isn't the way that anyone had hoped it played out, even with a Russian invasion. My SO's family has been waiting for an evac car from Odessa to Moldova for days and it might be a few more days possibly. Peripherally watching their demeanor go from "eh, it's Russia" to their current state has been anxiety inducing. Let's just hope that Putin intends to keep this military v military like everyone believes.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:25
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Kamrat posted:Can you put this in the title as well, I doubt everyone is going the read the OP and if war kicks off this thread is going to start moving a mile a minute. Tagging NSFW stuff is a forum rule anyway, and there are people talking about this in multiple threads. It might be worth a forum sticky for a bit 'Don't post pictures of headless bodies you morons'. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 23:27 on Feb 23, 2022 |
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Feb 23, 2022 23:25
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CommieGIR posted:Sadly I doubt that it'll fit. maybe just "TAG ANY VIOLENT IMAGERY OR VIDEO"?
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Feb 23, 2022 23:25
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projecthalaxy posted:I feel like im dissociating lol poo poo loving sucks man and I'm sorry  quarantinethepast posted:To expand on this, can NATO intervene perhaps in a very targeted way to say "we're going to hold down this area in Ukraine to aid evacuations and will only attack for self-protection"? If that makes any sense. there has been speculation that lviv might be functionally considered in the nato sphere to the point of being defended, but i don't think that is super likely either Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 23:27 on Feb 23, 2022 |
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Feb 23, 2022 23:25
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Mr. Apollo posted:maybe just "TAG ANY VIOLENT IMAGERY OR VIDEO"? I've added !!READ OP WARNING!! to the title. hopefully that'll get people's attention
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Feb 23, 2022 23:26
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quarantinethepast posted:To expand on this, can NATO intervene perhaps in a very targeted way to say "we're going to hold down this area in Ukraine to aid evacuations and will only attack for self-protection"? If that makes any sense. No, they cannot. At the very least not until, as horrifying as it is to type this out, Putin Aleppoifies a couple of major Ukrainian cities, if at all. Ukraines heaviest hitting out, continuing this grim logic, is to cause Russians overreact with violence so vast that Western politicians are pressured to get enough economic nukes out that there’s a military-backed oligarch coup in Russia, under pretext that the Caesar has gone senile. Words cannot really describe this situation, at all. projecthalaxy posted:I feel like im dissociating lol Мои соболезнования. Прикидываться не буду, что понимаю каково это, как и не помогает то что осталась лишь тусклая надежда, что мне за Европу не станет ещё более стыдно чем сейчас. Но на данный момент не остаётся ничего иного как крепиться духом, и встречать супостата с поднятой головой. Опять же, легко мне говорить, но резона я не вижу ожидать от него какого-либо снисхождения, коль повернуться к нему спиной.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:28
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:ukraine has a pretty stout military. they've been resisting "russian" fighting for years now. russia overmatches ukraine in terms of sheer combat power but ukraine definitely can give russia some serious counterblows - probably not enough to cause russia to back off, but definitely enough to make russia bleed. part of what makes this crisis so chaotic is that it isn't going to be a clear imbalance like the coalition in iraq 1991, any serious fighting is going to happen in urban areas which means stacks of dead troops on both sides and an even higher stack of dead civilians so what are the chances of this being a bloody occupation and turning into another Afghanistan for Russia where everyone pumps weapons into the various resistance groups. because i feel like that will be worse for the russians then anything. most of their recent wars were them taking relatively russia friendly territories against smaller countries with shorter notice or being merc/military support for assad.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:29
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https://twitter.com/ScottMStedman/status/1496612163506479105 This should be interesting. Redgrendel2001 posted:Not if he can dispose of the evidence. Putin's been hiding bodies for 8 years. Russian families complained about this when the conflict in Donbass started.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:29
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'It's ridiculous and hyperbolic to compare Putin to Hitler' *invades Ukraine with mobile crematoria*
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Feb 23, 2022 23:31
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Alchenar posted:'It's ridiculous and hyperbolic to compare Putin to Hitler' It is ridiculous. People bothered to stop Hitler.
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Feb 23, 2022 23:32
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| # ? May 28, 2024 22:17 |
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Slightly related: https://twitter.com/Still_Fast/status/1496600826655408128?s=20&t=0jsl0YwSuW3ezhnK4Yu4Ig
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Feb 23, 2022 23:32
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