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The tatmadaw are still in power despite literally everyone hating them to such an extent that they have to send soldiers door to door to get people to actually go to work Do not underestimate the ability of a regime to stay in power if it’s willing to give up literally everything else to stay in power.
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Feb 24, 2022 14:48
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dr_rat posted:Everything about Russia's communication has been all over the place. Particularly as it's obviously been planned for a while now it's surprising that Putin didn't just have a few talking points handed out to everyone and have everyone stick to it. Both speeches he would ignore some stuff he mentioned before bring in new stuff. Seems like he made up like five different reasons to invade and has no idea which one he actually wants to stick with. I get the sense they are aware that none of what they say holds up to scrutiny, and just don't care. Russian disinfo strategy has for ages been to just dump out so much contradicting information that it's impossible to really keep up with and counter each individual claim. It's not there to convince anybody they are right, just make enough noise that it becomes exhaustingly hard for anyone to definitively show they are wrong.
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Feb 24, 2022 14:50
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Ola posted:I hope you are right. Russia must be politically and economically isolated, starting right now. No G8, no security council, no SWIFT, no shipping, no trade, no airlines. It's a bandit government on par with North Korea, or worse if you go by the metric "aggressive wars started the past 12 months". It has no business being part of the global community at the moment and excluding it from it will be the beginning of the end of Putin's regime, which in itself will be a horrible, painful boil to lance for the Russian people. I am guessing we will start seeing that poo poo hit in a couple hours. we are definitely getting an oval office speech tonight. ZombieLenin posted:Civilians are lining up today in Ukraine to volunteer to fight. i mean hot take but i dont blame them. id probably be doing the same in their shoes.
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Feb 24, 2022 14:50
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TheRat posted:This seems very optimistic and naive. Nah, I'm an eastern euro and follow the regional developments, it's been downhill for Russia for a while from an economics/political perspective
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Feb 24, 2022 14:50
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Is there somewhere I can read an unbiased timeline on what led up to this monstrosity? I've been trying to educate myself but media is so heavily skewed and I want to be able to understand why this is all happening as someone completely clueless on the nuances of foreign affairs. I just want to be able to avoid misinformation as much as possible and want to be able to identify it as much as possible, because it looks kind conservative media (read: what my family and a lot of people in my area are going to be consuming) is already going all in on blaming the current administration for this... but like, wasn't trump being all buddy buddy with Putin and poo poo like that? And isn't the US getting involved here an extremely bad thing in the bigger picture? I just want to understand context here and there is so much conflicting information that all I can do is condemn what Putin and Russia is doing as a loving abomination without understanding the motivation in doing so.
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Feb 24, 2022 14:50
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I think Putin's objectives so far have failed utterly honestly: Ukraine did not back down and is seemingly making them fight for every bloody inch The Russian economy is in tatters and possibly about to be locked out of global markets Even if he does take like a quater-half of the country they are looking at an occupation for years It seems to be an unpopular war with his own people if celebrities feel they can speak out NATO may get even stronger with Sweden and Finland now pushing for membership, and NATO will be seen increasingly as a needed alliance against further Russian belligerency So good job there Vlad 
TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 14:53 on Feb 24, 2022 |
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Feb 24, 2022 14:51
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TulliusCicero posted:I think Putin's objectives so far have failed utterly honestly: I agree with the sentiment but I feel like only time will actually tell for now. A lot can change very quickly
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Feb 24, 2022 14:52
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CommieGIR posted:The only difference is the visibility: A lot of Russians view Ukraine as Russian, and if Putin starts brutalizing fellow Russians, it could go badly. ... Russians brutalize their fellow 'undesirable' Russians every day, in record number. I think you're kidding yourself if you think Putin can't use propaganda to convince Russian's that the Ukrainians are suddenly all Nazi's or whatever (heck see how much disinfo has just leaked into here for example)...
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Feb 24, 2022 14:53
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Framboise posted:Is there somewhere I can read an unbiased timeline on what led up to this monstrosity? I've been trying to educate myself but media is so heavily skewed and I want to be able to understand why this is all happening as someone completely clueless on the nuances of foreign affairs. The uncomplicated answer is Putin wants Ukraine to be in Russia's sphere of influence. There's hundreds of reasons underlying that but it basically comes down to Russia having a desired sphere of influence and historically Ukraine has been within that.
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Feb 24, 2022 14:53
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https://twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1496810023690850304?s=20&t=Vw3NYyEAUAREDT3DZG_Q0w
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Feb 24, 2022 14:54
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Framboise posted:Is there somewhere I can read an unbiased timeline on what led up to this monstrosity? I've been trying to educate myself but media is so heavily skewed and I want to be able to understand why this is all happening as someone completely clueless on the nuances of foreign affairs. There's no unbiased timeline there because politics are not performed in an unbiased manner in a way that measuring the size of average bull testicles in Iowa can be done.
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Feb 24, 2022 14:54
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I very much doubt Sweden will join NATO. We’ve been clinging to our “neutrality” with the same obsession that American liberals cling to their decorum.
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Feb 24, 2022 14:55
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ZombieLenin posted:Oh, I don’t think Russia is beaten. It just seems to me that Putin underestimated what it is going to take to conquer Ukraine, and that Russia will have to pay a heavy price both financially and in, for lack of a better a better phrase, blood to subdue Ukraine. A much heavier price than Putin planned for. That's still too early to say. We don't have a reliable understanding of casualties so far, nor do we know what Putin was expecting. I have to wonder what you are basing this on? And what makes you think that Russia will have to occupy Ukraine or do it for years? Like said, it's now been going for half a day. It's ways too early to speculate on what will happen in the coming days, let alone years. All of this is loose talk.
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Feb 24, 2022 14:55
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Framboise posted:Is there somewhere I can read an unbiased timeline on what led up to this monstrosity? I've been trying to educate myself but media is so heavily skewed and I want to be able to understand why this is all happening as someone completely clueless on the nuances of foreign affairs. I don't think it really has very much to do with america at all to be quite honest. If people are trying to use it to say something about american politics I think they're certainly trying to sell you something.
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Feb 24, 2022 14:55
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People should really refrain from putting definitive comments like "Ukraine is getting overrun" or "Russians are getting bloodied" under some blurry Twitter vids that we don't even know are really from Ukraine or from today. There's very little you can learn from the state of the war in Ukraine from a couple of video's. It also has been less than 24 hours. This might turn out to be an Iraqi style collapse, or it might be the beginning of a huge quagmire for Russia, but it's way to early. Statements towards either side at the moment are just kind of tiring at this point.
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Feb 24, 2022 14:56
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Framboise posted:Is there somewhere I can read an unbiased timeline on what led up to this monstrosity? I've been trying to educate myself but media is so heavily skewed and I want to be able to understand why this is all happening as someone completely clueless on the nuances of foreign affairs. NPR is always an excellent initial outlet for understanding a news story: https://www.npr.org/2022/02/23/1082510234/russia-ukraine-updates BBC put out a decent primer if you'd like to see a non-American source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60504334 VICE has a particularly excellent Ukrainian journalism unit, and they have a lot of good comprehensive coverage: https://www.vice.com/en/article/3abjn3/russia-invades-ukraine-vladimir-putin-kyiv Kaal fucked around with this message at 14:58 on Feb 24, 2022 |
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Feb 24, 2022 14:56
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TulliusCicero posted:I think Putin's objectives so far have failed utterly honestly: same but its way to early to tell at this point. but i do weirdly think russia doing this might bind up some divisions in countries and the world in some ways.
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Feb 24, 2022 14:57
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Kaal posted:BBC has a decent primer if you'd like to see a non-American source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60504334 Thank you.
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Feb 24, 2022 14:57
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cinci zoo sniper posted:There's no unbiased timeline there because politics are not performed in an unbiased manner in a way that measuring the size of average bull testicles in Iowa can be done. This is a tedious reply. The spirit of the post is totally reasonable and while there’s no true objectivity there’s definitely good faith reporting out there which attempts to honestly outline things while taking into account the many different lenses on things — compared to the current information poo poo show around Ukraine because so many parties have been stirring the pot for so long
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Feb 24, 2022 14:58
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TulliusCicero posted:I think Putin's objectives so far have failed utterly honestly: That's only the case if you are still ignoring the fact that back in November the US started telling everyone 'oh poo poo Putin has decided to do a full scale invasion of Ukraine'. Plenty of reason to be doubtful in the intervening time, but at this point it is worth seriously considering that this was the plan all along.
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Feb 24, 2022 14:58
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I hate the mythos that Putin has cultivated of being some sort of hyper-calculating, three-steps-ahead sociopath, because I can't tell how much is true and how much is fluffed-up bullshit. Russian separatists could be breaking down the door to the Kremlin and people would still think Putin has an ace up his sleeve, and I'd kind of buy into it, even though I know he's objectively kind of a lucky idiot.
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Feb 24, 2022 14:59
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Somaen posted:It's beaten in the longterm. There's no loving way to recover from this: attacking a peaceful brotherly nation, lying and loving over your friends (Scholz and Macron were promised diplomacy and look like idiots), NATO on high alert, more economic sanctions, everyone looking with horror and demanding to diversify from Russia. This might not be immediate but long-term this is all set. It was all set before with moving on from fossil fuels but this will definitely change the calculus Agreed. Putin's actions have only brought the West closer but holy crap this is one insane development. TheRat posted:This seems very optimistic and naive. Why not? Not a single Country with the exception of proxy states controlled by Russia does not support the invasion of Ukraine. Even China is backing away. If history is any teacher, Countries no matter how powerful need allies to fight big fights and those that don't end up eventually losing.
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Feb 24, 2022 14:59
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Kaal posted:NPR is always an excellent initial outlet for understanding a news story: https://www.npr.org/2022/02/23/1082510234/russia-ukraine-updates Thank you for this resource!
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Feb 24, 2022 14:59
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 https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1496844833314553856
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Feb 24, 2022 14:59
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So I am a Hungarian married to a Russian, currently living in Hungary, but as I lived in Russia for some time I have lots of Russian friends. I have no idea what their media is telling them, and obviously they try to get info from unofficial sources, but a very good friend of mine just messaged me this. (google translate but pretty accurate)quote:I have been reading about Orban's views for a long time. Has he sent troops yet? And then soon there will be little left of Ukraine, it seems. The Poles are already fussing there ... They really think NATO and EU members Hungary and Poland will take this opportunity to get chunks out of Ukraine... This is madness.
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Feb 24, 2022 14:59
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Somaen posted:It's beaten in the longterm. There's no loving way to recover from this: attacking a peaceful brotherly nation, lying and loving over your friends (Scholz and Macron were promised diplomacy and look like idiots), NATO on high alert, more economic sanctions, everyone looking with horror and demanding to diversify from Russia. This might not be immediate but long-term this is all set. It was all set before with moving on from fossil fuels but this will definitely change the calculus It’s ironic really. Until last month many people in the West had the feeling that NATO was getting kind of pointless. What was this massive alliance really protecting against? Putin I think sensed this weakness in the alliance. Putin did not like the idea that former Warsaw Pct nations were joining NATO, and he really did not like the idea that nations once part of the Soviet Union and shared a border with Russia (the Baltic countries) had joined NATO or were inspired to do so (Ukraine). So he manufactures this conflict with the Ukraine. He thinks to himself: “Nobody did poo poo when we went into Crimea and the response to our Georgian campaign was divisive in the West… Europe is dependent on Russian oil and gas, which means we can attack Ukraine and further divide NATO states, weakening the alliance even more and taking one step towards reforming ‘Greater Russia.’” But, at the end of the day what he actually achieved was the opposite. He not only established Russia as a pariah state at the global level, but he is also shooting the Russian economy in the foot, while uniting NATO and giving the alliance the meaning it really has been lacking since the collapse of the Soviet Union. This whole thing has blown up in Putin’s face.
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Feb 24, 2022 15:01
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Hiro Protagonist posted:I hate the mythos that Putin has cultivated of being some sort of hyper-calculating, three-steps-ahead sociopath, because I can't tell how much is true and how much is fluffed-up bullshit. Russian separatists could be breaking down the door to the Kremlin and people would still think Putin has an ace up his sleeve, and I'd kind of buy into it, even though I know he's objectively kind of a lucky idiot. Imo I think he used to be like that but then at some point in the pandemic, like many of our elderly, he just went off the loving deep end
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Feb 24, 2022 15:02
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TulliusCicero posted:I think Putin's objectives so far have failed utterly honestly: Far too early to judge the military side of things. Reminds me of the invasion of Afrin in Syria, or the recent Nagorno Karabakh war; in both cases the defenders seemed competent and doing quite well for a while, then collapsed like a house card.
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Feb 24, 2022 15:02
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CNN now showing live video of Russian troops occupying an airport near Kyiv.
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Feb 24, 2022 15:02
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with a rebel yell she QQd posted:They really think NATO and EU members Hungary and Poland will take this opportunity to get chunks out of Ukraine... This is madness. These people clearly played Diplomacy.
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Feb 24, 2022 15:04
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Nenonen posted:That's still too early to say. We don't have a reliable understanding of casualties so far, nor do we know what Putin was expecting. I have to wonder what you are basing this on?
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Feb 24, 2022 15:05
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ZombieLenin posted:Europe is dependent on Russian oil and gas, which means we can attack Ukraine and further divide NATO states, weakening the alliance even more and taking one step towards reforming ‘Greater Russia.’” Remember when Poles and Czechs killed the plans to base anti-missile NATO bases in their countries in 2012? One of the talking points was that it's meant against Russia instead of Iran and we shouldn't antagonize Russia Good times, good times
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Feb 24, 2022 15:05
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The balance of forces looks a lot like Armenia vs Azeris, with much easier terrain, so the conventional war should go like that. What happens then depends on Russian war goals - how much do they intend to actually occupy etc - and the actual strength of Ukrainian nationalism - are they gonna really do an insurgency in significant numbers, if much of the country stays occupied.
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Feb 24, 2022 15:06
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steinrokkan posted:Far too early to judge the military side of things. Reminds me of the invasion of Afrin in Syria, or the recent Nagorno Karabakh war; in both cases the defenders seemed competent and doing quite well for a while, then collapsed like a house card. I think few people are seriously expecting Ukraine to win this war. The terrain is bad from a defensive standpoint, Russians have more troops and better weapons. It would take some colossal fuckups from the generals who are probably still in touch with reality unlike Putin to lose the war on the fundamentals. The question is how long does the conflict last and how much of a price does Russia pay and that depends a lot on how an occupation goes.
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Feb 24, 2022 15:06
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It's honestly rather hard to understand what the russian government wants in this instance other than some vague sense of territorial expansion.
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Feb 24, 2022 15:06
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There has been sone staggeringly stupid decisions taken today by Russians, including a daytime chopper raid over Kyiv. They’ve had surprisingly little gains, the biggest being 100km into an abandoned steppe down south. They’ve lost a lot of air units and their Karkiv push is in shambles. I’m not calling this a victory by any stretch, but we’re midway through day one and the results so far for Russia are uninspiring.
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Feb 24, 2022 15:07
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mightygerm posted:CNN now showing live video of Russian troops occupying an airport near Kyiv. Did they say if it was Gostomel? That one seems to have been captured hours ago. If it's Boryspil that's something else entirely
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Feb 24, 2022 15:07
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From a Finnish perspective, I'm not convinced that Finland is going the NATO route. I think the plan for some time has been to see what Sweden does about NATO and then more or less follow suit, and as stated upthread the Swedes seem to be staunchly dedicated to neutrality.
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Feb 24, 2022 15:07
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:I think few people are seriously expecting Ukraine to win this war. The terrain is bad from a defensive standpoint, Russians have more troops and better weapons. It would take some colossal fuckups from the generals who are probably still in touch with reality unlike Putin to lose the war on the fundamentals. The question is how long does the conflict last and how much of a price does Russia pay and that depends a lot on how an occupation goes. That's what I mean, that the perception of even a moderate successes may be illusory, based on live feeds and few hours of reporting.
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Feb 24, 2022 15:08
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a cyberpunk goose posted:This is a tedious reply. The spirit of the post is totally reasonable and while there’s no true objectivity there’s definitely good faith reporting out there which attempts to honestly outline things while taking into account the many different lenses on things — compared to the current information poo poo show around Ukraine because so many parties have been stirring the pot for so long There definitely is decent reporting about the matter, but the question was arguably asking for something else, since no one really asks "please send me some bad reporting, I'd love to waste my time reading garbage". Reading between the lines, they want a non-American interpretation of the events - which is a perfectly valid ask, but with a clear bias, and similar questions previously did tend to yield unnecessary commotion over who believes what is the truer unbiased source of information.
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Feb 24, 2022 15:08
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