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seems not great! [url]https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1496867212711260162 https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1496868005866876937[/url]
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Feb 24, 2022 16:25
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CommieGIR posted:Yes, but still mostly to the immediate area. Its not going to carry like it did after the explosion. Right, and also the containment structure is 10 m thick steel (on top of two older containment structures), so it would likely take an intentional attack to crack it.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:25
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Our women 
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Feb 24, 2022 16:25
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Stanley Pain posted:That's not entirely correct. while this thing is unlikely to have been designed to withstand bombardment I think Russia would be as hosed as everyone else if they decided to destroy it
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Feb 24, 2022 16:25
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FishBulbia posted:Russians could do nothing to prepare for Ukraine's secret weapon Don't have a Twitter account what's the content?
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Feb 24, 2022 16:26
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Stanley Pain posted:That's not entirely correct. this would require fighting around the reactor itself, for ukraine to defend at the reactor, which seems like a stretch. the reason russians are there is because it is one of the few ways to cross the river in that area. there is a rail bridge over the pripyat branch of the dnieper near the reactor, but the road bridge is a few miles away from the reactor. the road bridge would be the focus of any fighting, depending on if ukraine is contesting the crossing in that area its surely freaky to think about but it is very unlikely any shots will be fired at or around the reactor
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Feb 24, 2022 16:26
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https://thateurovisionsite.com/2022/02/24/eurovision-2022-russia-ukraine/ Harsh sanctions going great!
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Feb 24, 2022 16:26
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Don't have a Twitter account what's the content? Angry woman screaming at troop, telling him to go home and etc
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Feb 24, 2022 16:27
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Territorial defence forces are national guard-style, and supposedly deployed primarily as a crowd control measure against saboteurs in urban context, from what we’ve heard of what they’re going to do so far. Ukrainian military are not psychos, to send civilians with basic training against the 1st Tank Army. That's better. Lots of misinformation out there. Despite what I've said I really hope Ukraine can put up more resistance. Do we even know if they've had a chance to use any of those weapons NATO countries sent them?
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Feb 24, 2022 16:27
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TheRat posted:
Different time. McDonnell's is 1200 GMT, the other is 5pm. But yeah, this is the difference between McDonnell and Corybn when it comes to how their philosophies play out.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:28
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coelomate posted:This is my take as well. It's terrifying that Putin took an action many people considered insane and irrational. But he has, and now a largely united west is in the process of responding, and the photos and videos will bring this war home to a historically unprecedented degree. It seemed he thought that Joe Biden was all talk and that France and GB were adverse to doing anything and being an autocrat didn't bother to think that people would resist. He is EX-KGB after all, I am sure he sees Americans/Britain/whatever as inferior and weak unlike his strong mental and physical capabilities.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:28
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Kraftwerk posted:That's better. Lots of misinformation out there. Despite what I've said I really hope Ukraine can put up more resistance. Do we even know if they've had a chance to use any of those weapons NATO countries sent them? Yes, there's been some indication that some of the weapons systems provided are being used to disable tanks and helicopters, possibly even downed a transport plane.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:28
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Kraftwerk posted:That's better. Lots of misinformation out there. Despite what I've said I really hope Ukraine can put up more resistance. Do we even know if they've had a chance to use any of those weapons NATO countries sent them? I believe they've Javelined a column of Russian tanks earlier today.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:29
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https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1496798954175877123
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Feb 24, 2022 16:29
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Fruits of the sea posted:An attack on Finland would pull in Sweden which actually has a half-decent air force last I checked. Not that Sweden and Finland have a great history, but they have common interests in this case. Which would be a right pain in the rear end for Russia because shipping access to the Baltic sea would become difficult. Plus nobody wants a repeat of the winter war. Denmark is required to help if Finland is attacked: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/summary/glossary/mutual_defence.html
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Feb 24, 2022 16:29
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Also I'm not as up on my geneva conventions as some people is there any rule against targeting religious/cultural things because if they're a few miles from the Kyiv center then they're probably close to the Lavra cathedral complex which is a beautiful 9th century (built up since then) cathedral and reliquary that (as the embassy reminds us in meme form) was there and already gold painted when Moscow was a muddy forest and its one of the most beautiful places in the world and it really annoys me that they're going to blow it up out of spite
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Feb 24, 2022 16:30
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Mooseontheloose posted:It seemed he thought that Joe Biden was all talk and that France and GB were adverse to doing anything and being an autocrat didn't bother to think that people would resist. He is EX-KGB after all, I am sure he sees Americans/Britain/whatever as inferior and weak unlike his strong mental and physical capabilities. Well the EU said this morning they're still on the fence about cutting off Russia from international banking 100%, so Putin hasn't yet been entirely wrong. US sanctions can harm international trade and corporate stuff, but it's up to EU and GB to really hit the oligarchs where they hurt.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:30
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Kraftwerk posted:Remember: in 1999 the United States lost an F-117 over Yugoslavia thanks to some luck with some old 1960s era short range SAMs. In the grand scheme of things the regime was still overthrown and the NATO bombings did their work. The f117 shoot down was in no way luck. It was an extremely skilled air defence officer making the best of a 1960s era long range sam (range 35 km, altitude 18000 meters)
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Feb 24, 2022 16:30
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I don't understand. It seems like Ukraine was in no way ready for an obvious invasion.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:30
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Kraftwerk posted:That's better. Lots of misinformation out there. Despite what I've said I really hope Ukraine can put up more resistance. Do we even know if they've had a chance to use any of those weapons NATO countries sent them? NATO weapons, the heavier stuff like MANPADs, are only going to professional military. Ukraine has millions of Kalashnikovs around for the territorial defence squads, which are supposed to be deployed in hybrid formations - jointly with regular police and military.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:31
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FishBulbia posted:seems not great! I can't even imagine having that level of stoicism about my plausibly imminent demise. Poor guy, but I'm a little envious of the courage. projecthalaxy posted:Also I'm not as up on my geneva conventions as some people is there any rule against targeting religious/cultural things because if they're a few miles from the Kyiv center then they're probably close to the Lavra cathedral complex which is a beautiful 9th century (built up since then) cathedral and reliquary that (as the embassy reminds us in meme form) was there and already gold painted when Moscow was a muddy forest and its one of the most beautiful places in the world and it really annoys me that they're going to blow it up out of spite You know they have the same religion right? Russia's not deliberately destroying an Orthodox cathedral out of spite.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:31
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This seems very late
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Feb 24, 2022 16:32
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Pook Good Mook posted:US sanctions can harm international trade and corporate stuff, but it's up to EU and GB to really hit the oligarchs where they hurt. In the face? Repeatedly? You can magically take away 99% of their wealth and assets, and they'll still live like kings.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:32
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Kaddish posted:I don't understand. It seems like Ukraine was in no way ready for an obvious invasion. This is just speculation, but it looked like they were more preparing for the more limited 'rest of the oblasts+mariupol' option rather than all out on to kiev because preparing for the latter would've jeopardized the former. However, we're less than 24 hours in, so there's nothing more than bullshit out there right now.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:32
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Kaddish posted:I don't understand. It seems like Ukraine was in no way ready for an obvious invasion. Zelensky was trying to do two things: Keep investors/economy somewhat stable AND prepare for invasion. That's difficult to do, there's optics of mobilizing your military at the same time trying to pretend there's nothing to panic about. Frankly, while he could've done some things better, he's been handed a lovely hand and is doing the best he can.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:32
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Kaddish posted:I don't understand. It seems like Ukraine was in no way ready for an obvious invasion. Ukraine suffers from the same systemic illness that many former USSR countries do. It makes "just doing it" hard when you have a bunch of domestic concerns to balance.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:32
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Kaddish posted:I don't understand. It seems like Ukraine was in no way ready for an obvious invasion. Pretty sure Russia has orders of magnitude more military capability than Ukraine, and they started off by sending missiles at several military installations which can’t help Ukraine’s chances.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:33
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Kaddish posted:I don't understand. It seems like Ukraine was in no way ready for an obvious invasion. TheRat posted:This seems very late It is late. A noteworthy nuance here is that Ukrainians distinguish between different classes of reserves, and what in many countries would count as full mobilisation did already happen, even though arguably belatedly.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:33
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What are some reasonable schools of thought on the Russian goals of this offensive, then? Seems to have gone far beyond the two contested/separatist regions. So, annexation of a larger area? Everything East of the Dnieper? The whole country? Got people on the BBC making worried sounds about the Baltics and/or the Suwalki Gap which feels pretty extreme.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:33
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THE BAR posted:In the face? Repeatedly? You can magically take away 99% of their wealth and assets, and they'll still live like kings. The sort of person who becomes an oligarch or billionaire isn’t satisfied at just living like a King.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:34
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sebzilla posted:What are some reasonable schools of thought on the Russian goals of this offensive, then? The goal is Ukraine. Putin openly said as much in his pre-recoded speech. Their intention is to do regime change, demilitarize Ukraine, and hunt down "undesirables".
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Feb 24, 2022 16:34
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Panzeh posted:This is just speculation, but it looked like they were more preparing for the more limited 'rest of the oblasts+mariupol' option rather than all out on to kiev because preparing for the latter would've jeopardized the former. We also really don't know gently caress all about what the Ukrainian military is doing, because no one really wants to give away their positions and they're not posting tiktoks of their movements and poo poo. Lot of the dead Russian tanks seem to be (from what the posts say, at least) from Javelins and other smaller weapons, rather than some attempt at large scale battles that they'd no doubt lose.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:35
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Panzeh posted:This is just speculation, but it looked like they were more preparing for the more limited 'rest of the oblasts+mariupol' option rather than all out on to kiev because preparing for the latter would've jeopardized the former. You also can't defend everywhere at once in this kind of war and have to make directed decisions. It's a combination of "He who defends everywhere defends no where" combined with Ukraine being pretty much perfect "invasion country" The best army in the world can't defend a front 200 km wide of steppe. You defend where and when you can and trade space for time. On that note, does anyone have a good idea on Russian logistical capabilities?
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Feb 24, 2022 16:35
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Finnish military isn't simple punching bag. Yes, we would lose but we are one of the rare european countries that haven't scaled down their military or military spending after cold war. And the only thing we have to offer for potential invader are endless woods, marshes and bogs.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:35
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Real Cool Catfish posted:The sort of person who becomes an oligarch or billionaire isn’t satisfied at just living like a King. I'm just afraid they'll learn to cope, or find another way to build their gold hoard.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:35
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This is also the first conventional war Europe has seen in 77 years. Hindsight being 20/20, I can't terribly fault someone skeptical that Russia would straight up invade all of Ukraine.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:35
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eke out posted:We also really don't know gently caress all about what the Ukrainian military is doing, because no one really wants to give away their positions and they're not posting tiktoks of their movements and poo poo. Lot of the dead Russian tanks seem to be (from what the posts say, at least) from Javelins and other smaller weapons, rather than some attempt at large scale battles. Yeah, anything really useful for analysis at that point is OPSEC.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:35
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Kamrat posted:Denmark is required to help if Finland is attacked: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/summary/glossary/mutual_defence.html Yeah, just our capability is pretty limited. But I don't see any reason why Putin would jeopardize access to the Atlantic via the Baltic sea.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:36
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Pook Good Mook posted:Well the EU said this morning they're still on the fence about cutting off Russia from international banking 100%, so Putin hasn't yet been entirely wrong. they haven't even kicked russia out of eurovision, and up until the actual invasion Belgium and Italy didn't loving want poo poo like diamonds or luxury clothes to be on the export ban list. Even now Germany's trying to keep putin off because Scholz still loving thinks he can talk to him and save the gas. its enough of a shitshow that im actually understanding euroskepticism now because jesus you really can't let go of your greed when facing an existential crisis
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Feb 24, 2022 16:36
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CommieGIR posted:The goal is Ukraine. Putin openly said as much in his pre-recoded speech. Their intention is to do regime change, demilitarize Ukraine, and hunt down "undesirables". It should also be pointed out that Putin probably recorded his decleration of war. There was not peaceful option he was willing to accept unless it was make Ukraine a Russian puppet.
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Feb 24, 2022 16:36
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