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Shooting Blanks
Jun 6, 2007

Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade



Zephro posted:

I mean it's a dumb talking point created by an idiot but saying "we'll drop the ISS on your heads" is basically saying "we'll drop 400 tons of thin metal tubes randomly across Europe", ie not exactly a chilling threat even by the standards of idiots with dumb talking points

The threat here isn't a physical threat of "We're going to use ISS as a kinetic impact weapon" so much as it's "We're willing to let the fucker die if we don't get our way." If that's a sanctioned statement from the Kremlin, it's an indication of Putin's resolve. The ISS itself isn't particularly valuable any more, however it is one of the last remaining vestiges of cooperation between the US and Russia - this is a power play letting us (potentially) know what their priorities are.

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the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Not hard to imagine Putin crowing, "I told you this" when it was announced there would be no movement on SWIFT

Dwesa
Jul 19, 2016

Zephro posted:

I mean it's a dumb talking point created by an idiot but saying "we'll drop the ISS on your heads" is basically saying "we'll drop 400 tons of thin metal tubes randomly across Europe", ie not exactly a chilling threat even by the standards of idiots with dumb talking points
it's no wonder that russian space program is in shape it is

MikeC
Jul 19, 2004
BITCH ASS NARC

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

I imagine a lot of NATO troops and equipment are about to flow into the Baltics, Poland, and Romania so I wouldn’t be surprised that Russia would want to do the same on the other side of the border.

Actually, forcing Russia to counter NATO border troops is probably one way to help Ukraine by taking those troops away from other duties.

If they are looking to gobble all of Ukraine and not leave a rump state, Brest would be a logical place to move south and secure Ukraine's western border. No one is invading Poland

Zephro
Nov 23, 2000

I suppose I could part with one and still be feared...

Shooting Blanks posted:

The threat here isn't a physical threat of "We're going to use ISS as a kinetic impact weapon" so much as it's "We're willing to let the fucker die if we don't get our way." If that's a sanctioned statement from the Kremlin, it's an indication of Putin's resolve. The ISS itself isn't particularly valuable any more, however it is one of the last remaining vestiges of cooperation between the US and Russia - this is a power play letting us (potentially) know what their priorities are.
That's even less of a threat, though. The ISS is a $100bn flying sunk cost that's accomplished almost nothing scientifically useful in its lifetime. It was maybe useful as a way to keep Russian space engineers busy after the collapse of the USSR (ie not selling their services to Pakistan or North Korea for building ICBMs) but all of those boats have sailed at this point.

Hardly anyone would care if the ISS just vanished tomorrow, including most of the space cadet crowd. They'd mostly be pleased that there'd no longer be a need to support it and so the money could be spent on more interesting/worthwhile stuff.

Loving Africa Chaps
Dec 3, 2007


We had not left it yet, but when I would wake in the night, I would lie, listening, homesick for it already.

Zephro posted:

I mean it's a dumb talking point created by an idiot but saying "we'll drop the ISS on your heads" is basically saying "we'll drop 400 tons of thin metal tubes randomly across Europe", ie not exactly a chilling threat even by the standards of idiots with dumb talking points

He's threatening the loss of the ISS itself more than any kinetic bombardment

dominoeffect
Oct 1, 2013

cinci zoo sniper posted:

https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/status/1496850009261813761

This is a very reputable analyst specialising in Russian military.

Thanks. One follow-up question: do you know of any resource that describes the overall level of these groups? I.e., why is the 31st considered one of the most elite and are there others of note?

I found this report that gives an overview the situation: https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Initial%20Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment.pdf. Can't speak to how reputable they are, but some of the things they say seem to line up with the news today.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

i am a moron posted:

The difference is the US would've obliterated the attack on the airport after the Rangers or some other light infantry unit took it with combined arms. I'm not a military nerd, so if the Russians got their SF/SEAL equivalents killed trying to fight a conventional fight they're stupid as hell. Our special forces wouldn't have been there in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Rhino

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

A big flaming stink posted:

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1496959123707109394

:stonk: if this is actually true ukraine seems to be on the ropes already

universal conscription is not a measure you take unless you absolutely have to

Well, when you’re invaded by Russia and the fate of your loving country is on the line, don’t you think it’s best to say, “hey it’s okay for your families to leave, but men of fighting age need to stick around just in case.”

Arguments about the fairness of conscripting people to fight wars aside, this actually just reinforces my feeling that Ukraine is going to fight and resist, and just isn’t interested in Putin’s suggestion everyone lay down their arms and go home to be ‘liberated’, de-militarized, and regime changed returned to the fold of the Russian Empire.

It’s good news, frankly, not bad news.

buglord
Jul 31, 2010

Cheating at a raffle? I sentence you to 1 year in jail! No! Two years! Three! Four! Five years! Ah! Ah! Ah! Ah!

Buglord
99% certain it’s just me but when I saw the ISS tweet linked several pages ago I kept not understanding what the significance or the connection was but I didn’t realize it was *that* International Space Station ISS.

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.
Would it be okay if I posted takes of the situation from media figures or is this strictly "only official news updates, no takes at all" type of thread?

It seems that mods are (rightfully) doing their best to keep the thread on track and I do not want to disrespect them. I'm not entirely sure of the unspoken rules here.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Libluini posted:

Grouchio wanted me to share this with the thread. Apparently not much of the ISS would even survive deorbiting, so "only" the astronauts would die, if it comes to that.

And now, I don't know why they didn't want to post this by themselves.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Sinteres posted:

They're probed and just tricked you into evading probation.

I messed up my probation message, so please find the full HD copy enclosed.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Martyrs of Freedom and Democracy. Heroes.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Shooting Blanks posted:

The threat here isn't a physical threat of "We're going to use ISS as a kinetic impact weapon" so much as it's "We're willing to let the fucker die if we don't get our way." If that's a sanctioned statement from the Kremlin, it's an indication of Putin's resolve. The ISS itself isn't particularly valuable any more, however it is one of the last remaining vestiges of cooperation between the US and Russia - this is a power play letting us (potentially) know what their priorities are.

It's not even that, it was literally just a suggestion that sanctions could effect the russian space program and russian "nasa" going "hey, if you don't refuel the ISS do you want it to fall on europe or do you want to explain to china letting junk drop on them?" Like it wasn't even a threat they were going to make it fall, it was literally like "hey dumbass, you can't block funding to russian refueling missions to the ISS".

It's like if there was a big dam and some country down river was going to sanction money for repair on it. Responding "are you sure about this" is a totally reasonable response

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

buglord posted:

99% certain it’s just me but when I saw the ISS tweet linked several pages ago I kept not understanding what the significance or the connection was but I didn’t realize it was *that* International Space Station ISS.

What other iss is there?

A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog


SPACE WAR

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1496969989978472452

I think I saw something earlier today about Ukraine having different levels of mobilisation, so no idea what this actually equates to - but probably related to the 18-60 thing earlier.

Zephro
Nov 23, 2000

I suppose I could part with one and still be feared...

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

It's not even that, it was literally just a suggestion that sanctions could effect the russian space program and russian "nasa" going "hey, if you don't refuel the ISS do you want it to fall on europe or do you want to explain to china letting junk drop on them?" Like it wasn't even a threat they were going to make it fall, it was literally like "hey dumbass, you can't block funding to russian refueling missions to the ISS".

It's like if there was a big dam and some country down river was going to sanction money for repair on it. Responding "are you sure about this" is a totally reasonable response
Even this isn't right, though. As another poster has already pointed out the US already has a cargo craft that can refuel the station. Even if it didn't it wouldn't be difficult to stick a propellant tank into a cargo Dragon and rig it up with the right plumbing to do the fuel transfer.

Once again Rogozin is famously an idiot and everything he says should be ignored

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1496958588685856774?s=20&t=veeMYbjBnjn-ELjTvgDu6g

"I live just off Saskahanskoho.... yeah."

Mod edit: currently we're encouraging tweets showing pows, including this Russian spy dumbass, to be spoiler tagged or something.

mod double edit: I swear there's a way to do it so it still embeds the tweet but can't remember how :saddowns:

Somebody fucked around with this message at 23:28 on Feb 24, 2022

dominoeffect
Oct 1, 2013


Unbelievable. I listened to the recording and thought how brave of these guys to stand up against impossible odds for their values, then read the second tweet and now I feel really sad.

Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?

Send the Marines! Er, Space Force!

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

i think that will happen by this weekend/next week.

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

Sucks to be that guy. I don’t know how Ukraine feels about capital punishment, but the Geneva Protocols still allow for non-uniformed combatants operating behind the front lines to be unceremoniously shot.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

steinrokkan posted:

What other iss is there?

In Scandinavia it's a cleaning company. In the good old days it was a strategy game company.

Boris Galerkin
Dec 17, 2011

I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!

Shes Not Impressed posted:

Really concerned about Chernihiv. Host family is hiding in their basement.
I'm not really seeing that battle covered unless the Russians have bypassed it.
My host sister heard from the family that the tanks have destroyed all the roads that were newly built last year.
Russians were also using loud speakers to do the usual "Stay away from us and you'll be safe we won't harm you" from their tank propaganda bullshit.

What is a “host family” or “host sister?”

America Inc.
Nov 22, 2013

I plan to live forever, of course, but barring that I'd settle for a couple thousand years. Even 500 would be pretty nice.

punk rebel ecks posted:

There seems to be trail that ultimately is sourced by my quote, and I'd like to say I never implied that Russia was "good" or that NATO was some sort of enemy. I acknowledge people with such views exist (especially in this very forum) but I don't think I deserve to be lumped in with them.

Tbf I wasn't referring to you, more to supposed leftists outside of this forum on the internet in general.

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe
Welp, my family in laws didn't make it to Moldova in time before the general conscription. Godspeed to all the men staring down the barrel of Russian aggression. Hopefully the women and kids can still make it.

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Nenonen posted:

In Scandinavia it's a cleaning company. In the good old days it was a strategy game company.

Close, the latter was SSI.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

dominoeffect posted:

Thanks. One follow-up question: do you know of any resource that describes the overall level of these groups? I.e., why is the 31st considered one of the most elite and are there others of note?

I found this report that gives an overview the situation: https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Initial%20Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment.pdf. Can't speak to how reputable they are, but some of the things they say seem to line up with the news today.

You are asking for a lot of reading but here you go: https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/hot%20spots/documents/russia/2017-07-the-russian-way-of-war-grau-bartles.pdf

Bartles is probabley the easiest best read on this. To turn a 400 page book into a couple of lines; much of Russia's army is configured to be operationally effetive but tactically fairly low skill and only capable of a number of set piece battle drills. The airborne forces are the ones that by neccesity are trained to be a lot more flexible and adaptive to a changing battlefield.


e: the above link really goes for anyone who wants to understand how the modern Russian army has reformed since the Soviet days but retains much of that lineage and fights in a very different way to how Western armies train to fight.

Alchenar fucked around with this message at 23:22 on Feb 24, 2022

Rad Russian
Aug 15, 2007

Soviet Power Supreme!

Dapper_Swindler posted:

i think that will happen by this weekend/next week.

Even SWIFT is getting resistance. Zero chance they touch oil, that would plunge the world economy into turmoil.

Gas can technically be covered by US imports, however, the issue is that European ports don't have the capacity to accept enough gas to cover their needs.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

ZombieLenin posted:

Sucks to be that guy. I don’t know how Ukraine feels about capital punishment, but the Geneva Protocols still allow for non-uniformed combatants operating behind the front lines to be unceremoniously shot.

It's what he deserves. They'll probably hold onto him, but they'd be well within their rights.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

ZombieLenin posted:

Sucks to be that guy. I don’t know how Ukraine feels about capital punishment, but the Geneva Protocols still allow for non-uniformed combatants operating behind the front lines to be unceremoniously shot.

that guys loving dead, after they get information from him.


Rad Russian posted:

Even SWIFT is getting resistance. Zero chance they touch oil, that would plunge the world economy into turmoil.

agreed.

Kamrat
Nov 27, 2012

Thanks for playing Alone in the dark 2.

Now please fuck off
Thought we weren't supposed to post POWs?

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

I'm from smolensk I swear!

I mean Kharkiv

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


cinci zoo sniper posted:

I messed up my probation message, so please find the full HD copy enclosed.



This might be my favorite comedy sixer of all time. :golfclap:

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


Boris Galerkin posted:

What is a “host family” or “host sister?”

In the Peace Corps you are placed in a host family and live with them during training which is 3 months.
I then spent another 6-8 months with another family at my permanent site.

My host family in Chernihiv participated in the program because they wanted to encourage speaking Ukrainian and home and help their kids pick up English.
Before they hosted a volunteer they only spoke Russian, I think. It's the predominant language in Chernihiv.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Kamrat posted:

Thought we weren't supposed to post POWs?

By the rules the tweet maybe should be spoiler tagged, yeah. I'll edit it for guy.

RoboChrist 9000
Dec 14, 2006

Mater Dolorosa

Nenonen posted:

In Scandinavia it's a cleaning company. In the good old days it was a strategy game company.

Wasn't the game company SSI? Or do you mean someone else?

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




dominoeffect posted:

Thanks. One follow-up question: do you know of any resource that describes the overall level of these groups? I.e., why is the 31st considered one of the most elite and are there others of note?

I found this report that gives an overview the situation: https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Initial%20Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment.pdf. Can't speak to how reputable they are, but some of the things they say seem to line up with the news today.

I don’t have any power level rankings for various Russian infantry. However, you can infer some things from their names:

Simple brigade will be like “69th Air Assault Brigade”. With combat experience and successful missions, Russian military units get additional honourifics or awards. These guys? 31st Separate Guards Order of Kutuzov 2nd class Air Assault Brigade. That’s an award, Order of Kutuzov II; a honourific, Guards; and the fact that they’re a Separate Brigade generally means at least one of the following two - they don’t need babysitting by a broader army structure, or they have special logistical support needs, like fancy equipment.

31st fought in 2nd Chechen War, Georgia War, Crimea annexation, and Kazakhstan uprising.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 23:34 on Feb 24, 2022

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ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

Kamrat posted:

Thought we weren't supposed to post POWs?

By technicality that’s not an a POW. That’s what a real “unlawful enemy combatant” looks like, you know before the second Bush administration decided to apply this to everyone captured in combat during the war on terror.

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