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Nenonen posted:Ukraine has negotiated with Russia before and has expressed willingness to negotiate now. Except Russia has said there is no negotiation: They want unconditional surrender. Negotiate what?
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Feb 25, 2022 14:30
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CommieGIR posted:[...]Russia intends to round people up, they have openly said they have lists. I doubt most people are willing to guess whether or not they are on that list.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:30
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EvilHawk posted:It sounds like Russia is willing to accept a Ukrainian surrender, with ceasefire talks in Minsk. Sadly feels like a matter of time whether that happens before or after Kyiv falls. That's for Russian domestic consumption, there is no chance the terms are acceptable
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Feb 25, 2022 14:31
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Hiro Protagonist posted:Why do they even have a list? Is it people important to the Ukrainian government? People that said "Russia sucks!" on Facebook? Seems hard to have a list of people to gulag for another country. Paranoid dipshit leaders isolated from reality have lots of posting enemies in their head
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Feb 25, 2022 14:33
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CommieGIR posted:I don't think Ukraine is going to surrender. They are going to turn Kyiv into a meatgrinder. Its one of the largest cities in Europe. https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497189596869894144 https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497197359314391041 https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497191462240460824 https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497194377306902532 yeah. i think they are gonna make a big stand of it. like if they can get a favorible peace through negotiation, they will try but yeah. Hiro Protagonist posted:Why do they even have a list? Is it people important to the Ukrainian government? People that said "Russia sucks!" on Facebook? Seems hard to have a list of people to gulag for another country. FSB are big on crushing disidents of any kind.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:33
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Nenonen posted:That's a lot of meat to grind, then. Russia can just surround the city, cut electricity, gas and water and bombard them to submission. It's going to be just like Stalingrad, except Ukrainians are the surrounded 6th Army. when has it ever actually gone like this in urban combat? edit: to be clear, when you are able to surround the city and bombard the defenders in to submission. usually you have to dig them out block by block.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:34
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Hiro Protagonist posted:Why do they even have a list? Is it people important to the Ukrainian government? People that said "Russia sucks!" on Facebook? Seems hard to have a list of people to gulag for another country. You want to round up all important figureheads quite quickly to deter the formation of an underground resistance/insurgency/exile government. Political figures (not just the president, but also party leaders and public figures like the Klitschkos), military figures, the judiciary etc. The Nazis did the same.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:35
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Ukrainians have an enormous will to fight. I can’t believe anyone is ready, including myself, for how this will look.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:35
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And again: Russia SUCKS at Urban warfare. Their plan is always just do building demolition and assume that'll kill everyone. Those optics are not going to go over well.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:36
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Lord Stimperor posted:Tanks used to put wooden logs up as additional side protection. The additional protection was negligable to non-existent afaik but the crews must have felt better. It looks like a table to carry extra supplies since I’m assuming it’s a tight fit inside the tank itself.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:36
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surf rock posted:I wish Zelensky and his family had moved to Lviv with a good plan for how to evacuate to Poland. It seems like he's a decent leader who has made the best of a horrible situation, and the odds of a Russian puppet government failing seems a lot higher if he's alive and not imprisoned. If Zelensky flees it'd be a big morale hit. If he keeps sending out messages from the capital, it'll boost Ukrainian morale. I dare say he sees remaining as his patriotic duty, but I hope they've got a successor lined up to lead a government-in-exile if necessary.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:37
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CommieGIR posted:And again: Russia SUCKS at Urban warfare. Their plan is always just do building demolition and assume that'll kill everyone.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:39
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surf rock posted:I wish Zelensky and his family had moved to Lviv with a good plan for how to evacuate to Poland. It seems like he's a decent leader who has made the best of a horrible situation, and the odds of a Russian puppet government failing seems a lot higher if he's alive and not imprisoned. i dont think he is leaving. he knows the russians are just gonna show trial his rear end anyway even if he surrenders. he seems willing to do it to save the people but Russia won't keep their word. my guess is other parts of the government are in Lviv as a contingency. unless a surrender happens(which i wouldnt blame them for) i think he may die in the city.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:39
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:when has it ever actually gone like this in urban combat? That was, to a degree, how it was done at stalingrad after the russians encircled the sixth army. They did fight them block to block, but compared with the preceding months of fighting over the city, it went very quickly because the defending army was completely cut off and surrounded, and had no supplies left. Encirclement was also the preferred method of capturing urban areas during the majority of the second world war, it was only when there was no other option that armies resorted to actually attacking cities directly, often because the city was a major port or on a river front and could not be completely encircled and cut off. Stalingrad was the easternmost point of advance at that latitude, located on the volga and had a major rail station, and hitler was an idiot and demanded that it be taken by force, Leningrad is on the baltic and was constantly (if less than ideally) supplied by sea. Same with Sevastopol. The major urban sieges that failed were all because the defenders could not be cut off. OwlFancier fucked around with this message at 14:45 on Feb 25, 2022 |
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Feb 25, 2022 14:39
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CommieGIR posted:And again: Russia SUCKS at Urban warfare. Their plan is always just do building demolition and assume that'll kill everyone. Doesn't everyone suck at urban warfare? It always seems to end in carnage and rubble.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:40
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Starving out one of the biggest cities in Europe is a no-go. Europe would completely ban Russia from Eurovision for something like this. They either gonna have to clear it through urban combat or agree to a negotiated peace.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:40
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Can I get a summary of the past 12 hours? Just woke up less stressed out than yesterday
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Feb 25, 2022 14:41
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Il'll be honest Zelensky is one brave motherfucker and I didn't think politicians like him really existed. It takes massive courage to bunker down with your own forces and people and prepare to fight it out in front of a massive invasion. I just hope this doesn't end with him dead and his family captured or worse, as unforunately the odds seem insurmountable in Kyiv 
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Feb 25, 2022 14:41
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The last time an Ukrainian president fled Kyiv it did not look good. Doing anything similar to Yanukovich is very bad optics
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Feb 25, 2022 14:41
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TheRat posted:Doesn't everyone suck at urban warfare? It always seems to end in carnage and rubble. Pretty much, but Russia even more so.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:41
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A silly question for you. Are diplomatic agreements signed under duress actually worth anything? Cannot Ukraine just surrender, say "yeah, no NATO ever, pinkyswear", rebuild their military with western aid, wait for Russia to live with sanctions for a couple of years and then just join anyways? I think history is full of such examples. If the population wants it and Russia is not prepared to go 100% in with occupation how in gods name does Putin hope to stop Ukraine from drifting West anyway?
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Feb 25, 2022 14:42
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wetdela posted:Ukrainians have an enormous will to fight. I can’t believe anyone is ready, including myself, for how this will look. This has been one of the biggest surprises of the whole thing. Not that there was much question that Ukraine would fight, after all they've been fighting Russia for 8 years, but they've really been fighting in some exceedingly motivated ways. Zelenskiy's government quite effectively managed panic and even getting moderate amounts of the civilian population fighting against the russians will cause an absolutely massive headache for russian forces. Anyways, mostly it seems like Russia greatly underestimated how much resistance Ukraine would put up and overestimated how much their day one air and missile strikes would accomplish.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:42
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Gort posted:If Zelensky flees it'd be a big morale hit. If he keeps sending out messages from the capital, it'll boost Ukrainian morale. I dare say he sees remaining as his patriotic duty, but I hope they've got a successor lined up to lead a government-in-exile if necessary. Also, speaking of fog of war and propaganda, we're all taking at face value "Hi it is me your president from definitely Kyiv and not somewhere else, as you can see from this generic background I am standing in front of." I don't personally doubt it, but there's no great reason to assume it's true?
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Feb 25, 2022 14:42
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SirTagz posted:rebuild their military with western aid, wait for Russia to live with sanctions for a couple of years and then just join anyways? Russia would kind of notice and be a bit miffed.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:44
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Grouchio posted:Can I get a summary of the past 12 hours? Just woke up less stressed out than yesterday The main thing is that it seems like Russia are concentrating their attack on Kyiv. They've retaken the airport and have made a land corridor north east of the city. It sounds like they're starting to move in to the city proper and Ukraine is trying to mount a defence.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:44
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GABA ghoul posted:Starving out one of the biggest cities in Europe is a no-go. Europe would completely ban Russia from Eurovision for something like this. putins whole plan seems to be to knock out ukraine before he has to deal with the political consequences of war starving out does not align with that at all
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Feb 25, 2022 14:45
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SirTagz posted:A silly question for you. Are diplomatic agreements signed under duress actually worth anything? Cannot Ukraine just surrender, say "yeah, no NATO ever, pinkyswear", rebuild their military with western aid, wait for Russia to live with sanctions for a couple of years and then just join anyways? Any kind of agreement that Putin would accept would involve demilitarization, Russian bases and an explicit military aid agreement (like with Kazakhstan). If a revolution was ever threatening to overthrow the Russian puppet regime, they would go in with the VDV and start smashing heads.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:46
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TheRat posted:Russia would kind of notice and be a bit miffed. Can't have that! 
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Feb 25, 2022 14:46
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TheRat posted:Russia would kind of notice and be a bit miffed. So... another condition that Ukraine will never be allowed to purchase heavy weaponry and Russia sends in Spetsnaz every time Ukraine tries to ship a tube over? That will not work.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:46
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coelomate posted:Also, speaking of fog of war and propaganda, we're all taking at face value "Hi it is me your president from definitely Kyiv and not somewhere else, as you can see from this generic background I am standing in front of." idk if he is in kiev but i assume he is in country. he was offered/told to leave multiple times by the US and others and he hasnt yet. we would know if he did. BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:putins whole plan seems to be to knock out ukraine before he has to deal with the political consequences of war i mean most of those sanctions arnt going away, espcially if he tries the east/west ukraine poo poo like he is loving stalin.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:47
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OwlFancier posted:That was, to a degree, how it was done at stalingrad after the russians encircled the sixth army. They did fight them block to block, but compared with the preceding months of fighting over the city, it went very quickly because the defending army was completely cut off and surrounded, and had no supplies left. Encirclement was also the preferred method of capturing urban areas during the majority of the second world war, it was only when there was no other option that armies resorted to actually attacking cities directly, often because the city was a major port or on a river front and could not be completely encircled and cut off. Stalingrad was the easternmost point of advance at that latitude, located on the volga and had a major rail station, and hitler was an idiot and demanded that it be taken by force, Leningrad is on the baltic and was constantly (if less than ideally) supplied by sea. Same with Sevastopol. The major urban sieges that failed were all because the defenders could not be cut off. ah yes merely incurring tens of thousands of casualties on both sides after encirclement
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Feb 25, 2022 14:47
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SirTagz posted:A silly question for you. Are diplomatic agreements signed under duress actually worth anything? Cannot Ukraine just surrender, say "yeah, no NATO ever, pinkyswear", rebuild their military with western aid, wait for Russia to live with sanctions for a couple of years and then just join anyways? It's all a matter of force as we've seen. If after ruskies leave, NATO just overnight declared Ukraine a member and moved some units all over Ukraine, Russia would be mad but not able to do anything. But that's not really possible, so they'd just re-invade before anything actually happes.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:47
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SirTagz posted:A silly question for you. Are diplomatic agreements signed under duress actually worth anything? Cannot Ukraine just surrender, say "yeah, no NATO ever, pinkyswear", rebuild their military with western aid, wait for Russia to live with sanctions for a couple of years and then just join anyways? Nothing in international law is enforceable except by force. Agreements get violated and torn up regularly. In general the point is to establish norms and expectations for conduct, and in general parties get that and behave rationally. Everyone knows the incentive structure, so Russia is unlikely to agree to a "pinky swear no nato" agreement without significant changes to facts on the ground that lead it to believe it will be honored. Like by destroying the existing government, breaking the will of the people, and installing a new regime. Basically, there's no room for weaseling out of a total invasion via negotiation.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:47
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Hiro Protagonist posted:Can't have that! I mean, I'm sure the russians wouldnt have that? This hypothetical was to promise the russians something and do something else in return for ceasing the attacks.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:47
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GABA ghoul posted:Any kind of agreement that Putin would accept would involve demilitarization, Russian bases and an explicit military aid agreement (like with Kazakhstan). If a revolution was ever threatening to overthrow the Russian puppet regime, they would go in with the VDV and start smashing heads. But there already was a puppet regime and it was overthrown. It will be 10x harder to keep one in porwer now. My point is they cannot do it without full occupation
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Feb 25, 2022 14:48
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EvilHawk posted:The main thing is that it seems like Russia are concentrating their attack on Kyiv. They've retaken the airport and have made a land corridor north east of the city. It sounds like they're starting to move in to the city proper and Ukraine is trying to mount a defence. i dont think they took the airport again. plus the ukraines blew it to gently caress so its usless for landing more support.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:48
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Dapper_Swindler posted:we would know if he did. Why would we know if he did?
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Feb 25, 2022 14:48
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SirTagz posted:A silly question for you. Are diplomatic agreements signed under duress actually worth anything? Cannot Ukraine just surrender, say "yeah, no NATO ever, pinkyswear", rebuild their military with western aid, wait for Russia to live with sanctions for a couple of years and then just join anyways? No. One of Putin's stated goals is to 'demilitarize' Ukraine. This likely means Russian bases in Ukraine and Russian units on hand.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:49
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https://twitter.com/WW2girl1944/status/1497200338008526848
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Feb 25, 2022 14:49
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:ah yes merely incurring tens of thousands of casualties on both sides after encirclement Compared to the almost two million total, yes. Which illustrates very well how much more effective it is.
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Feb 25, 2022 14:49
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