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GABA ghoul posted:I mean, I'm not trying to be a dick, but that's just basic history. Look up the Prague spring, the east German uprising or the Hungarian revolution. Once you have Russian military bases and huge amount of troops in a country and the Russian government is willing to smash in heads, revolution become almost impossible. And if there is one thing Putin is absolutely not afraid of it's violence against his own people(lest alone against foreigners).
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Feb 25, 2022 15:03
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Most members would veto. If everyone had a stroke and Ukraine somehow became a member article 5 would still not be activated, it just takes one Russian commander panicking and ordering a tactical nuke, which is a capability they have, to maybe trigger a full exchange. Honestly, NATO doesn't see the invasion and conquest of Ukraine as an existential threat that needs a hail mary play, and they're already doing well out of this. States that never considered joining will now scramble to get in, and the existing members will probably take it much more seriously. Ghetto Prince fucked around with this message at 15:05 on Feb 25, 2022 |
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Feb 25, 2022 15:03
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This is an impossible hypothetical, it’s about as interesting as wondering how would you respond to John McCain teleporting out of his grave and biting your balls off. That's fair. I was honestly wondering in even in impossible scenarios what halts Russian aggression at this point.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:03
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ZombieLenin posted:I get this to some extent, which is why I would have thought a fighting withdrawl to the West was preferred--not a Stalin/Hitler "HOLD THE LINE OF CONTACT AT ALL COSTS" sort of thing; and fat chance Russia will stop and call it a day as long Kiev holds and Zelenskyy has not been killed, captured, or fled to Poland and the Ukrainian military still shooting at Russian forces on the opposite side of the Dnieper. In 2-3 years time we'll find out what the Ukrainian warplan was and how it held up to reality. Not much point speculating till then.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:04
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ZombieLenin posted:I get this to some extent, which is why I would have thought a fighting withdrawl to the West was preferred--not a Stalin/Hitler "HOLD THE LINE OF CONTACT AT ALL COSTS" sort of thing; and fat chance Russia will stop and call it a day as long Kiev holds and Zelenskyy has not been killed, captured, or fled to Poland and the Ukrainian military still shooting at Russian forces on the opposite side of the Dnieper. This might also have been decided based on how well the Ukrainian defense have been holding up. The decision not to evacuate might have been made when the government realized the Russians weren't invincible.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:04
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Have there been any major movements by Russians around Lvov and the western provinces?
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Feb 25, 2022 15:04
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cgeq posted:Fixed this for you and the answer is "no" There were some factions in russia that clearly expected basically a repeat of 2014 and/or that the conflict would be done within an hour or two of russia launching the air campaign's opening salvo. that was basically dumbfuck nationalists hopped up on russia-strong bullshit tho
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Feb 25, 2022 15:06
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Do we have any meaningful information about the positioning/strength of the Ukrainian army? If Kyiv is encircled, I wonder if there's any hope of army units retreating to the capital and disrupting the Russian attack over the coming days.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:06
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This is an impossible hypothetical, it’s about as interesting as wondering how would you respond to John McCain teleporting out of his grave and biting your balls off. I dunno, I wouldn't dismiss it outright, it is kinda an interesting scenario. I guess the first step would be to escape from him, stop the bleeding and then try to contact emergency services and a demon hunter?
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Feb 25, 2022 15:06
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TulliusCicero posted:That's fair. I was honestly wondering in even in impossible scenarios what halts Russian aggression at this point. Nothing. If Putin wants to force a military win, he will force it. The question is if he or Russia can survive the costs, and the most likely scenario where he doesn’t (and by most likely I’m mean something slightly more likely than McCain’s esoteric castration of yourself) is a full on financial and energy sector blockade from US, U.K., and EU, with China simultaneously staying out of it. In that case, he’d have to survive joint coup attempt from military and oligarchs - latter because money, former because he would need to order carpet bombings of residential areas to illicit a response like that out of the West. Currently the name of the game is not “can he win”, but “what kind of win he wants to pay for”.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:07
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surf rock posted:Do we have any meaningful information about the positioning/strength of the Ukrainian army? If Kyiv is encircled, I wonder if there's any hope of army units retreating to the capital and disrupting the Russian attack over the coming days. Not really no, and again likely on purpose. Russia is trolling for any public information it can glean, and its very good at it. In fact even most OSINT people are keeping a tight lip when it comes to Ukraine's position, strength, and composition on purpose.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:07
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I've not seen anything about the West, there were some reports overnight that Russia was staging forces near the Belorussian border with Poland but I don't know whyere they've gone.surf rock posted:Do we have any meaningful information about the positioning/strength of the Ukrainian army? If Kyiv is encircled, I wonder if there's any hope of army units retreating to the capital and disrupting the Russian attack over the coming days. Compared to yesterday it's been very quiet on the position of Ukrainian forces.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:07
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Grouchio posted:Have there been any major movements by Russians around Lvov and the western provinces? No. They’ve been moving near corresponding areas of Belarus border, however.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:08
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GABA ghoul posted:I mean, I'm not trying to be a dick, but that's just basic history. Look up the Prague spring, the east German uprising or the Hungarian revolution. Once you have Russian military bases and huge amount of troops in a country and the Russian government is willing to smash in heads, revolution become almost impossible. And if there is one thing Putin is absolutely not afraid of it's violence against his own people(lest alone against foreigners). sure but ukraine is a big loving country with a gently caress ton of people plus poo poo will be all over the net and russia will have to devote considerable resources to doing poo poo. TulliusCicero posted:That's fair. I was honestly wondering in even in impossible scenarios what halts Russian aggression at this point. thats kinda the point and why i dont think sanctions will go away. its very clear russia won't stop with ukraine east or west. idk if it will be poland next but they will look elsewhere.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:08
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brugroffil posted:I'm saying I don't think it'll accomplish anything useful, just a lot of dead people. "The optics!" don't seem to matter. Not to quote Churchill, but sometimes it is better to die fighting with no hope of victory than to live as a slave. Furthermore, it does accomplish something. It shows Putin for what he really is, makes Russia's territorial grab as hard as possible, and further illustrates one thing that has really been on display--how laughable Russia's armed forces really are. Furthermore, I would say to you... tell the Taliban about how resisting the overwhelming firepower of what Putin's invasion has clearly demonstrated is the most capable armed forces on earth--by orders of magnitude--achieves nothing in the long run. Here's a hint... it took twenty years, but the Taliban defeated the most capable army on earth. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 15:15 on Feb 25, 2022 |
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Feb 25, 2022 15:08
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surf rock posted:Do we have any meaningful information about the positioning/strength of the Ukrainian army? If Kyiv is encircled, I wonder if there's any hope of army units retreating to the capital and disrupting the Russian attack over the coming days. From what I've been able to gleam, Kyiv is only cut off from one direction.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:08
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surf rock posted:Do we have any meaningful information about the positioning/strength of the Ukrainian army? If Kyiv is encircled, I wonder if there's any hope of army units retreating to the capital and disrupting the Russian attack over the coming days. No, there is extremely little info out there about where Ukranian units are.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:08
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surf rock posted:Do we have any meaningful information about the positioning/strength of the Ukrainian army? If Kyiv is encircled, I wonder if there's any hope of army units retreating to the capital and disrupting the Russian attack over the coming days. Only pre-invasion stuff, e.g., 60k people holding Donbas frontline.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:09
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Dapper_Swindler posted:thats kinda the point and why i dont think sanctions will go away. its very clear russia won't stop with ukraine east or west. idk if it will be poland next but they will look elsewhere. Poland is not likely on the list because that's an EASY Article 5. And US Units are stationed directly in Poland. Its the easiest way to bring the US into this militarily. However, the rumor mill is that Russia is going to push a 'referendum' in Belarus and turn it into a Russia satellite state (more officially, its basically already been that).
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Feb 25, 2022 15:10
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ZombieLenin posted:Not to quote Churchill, but sometimes it is better to die fighting with no hope of victory than to live as a slave. I feel like that would be more poignient if he had been the one at risk of dying.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:11
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CommieGIR posted:Poland is not likely on the list because that's an EASY Article 5. And US Units are stationed directly in Poland. Its the easiest way to bring the US into this militarily. i have heard possibly the balkins too. Herstory Begins Now posted:No, there is extremely little info out there about where Ukranian units are. yeah they have kept a very very very tight lid on their stuff thank god.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:11
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OwlFancier posted:I feel like that would be more poignient if he had been the one at risk of dying. Churchill repeatedly tried quite hard to get himself killed in battle.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:12
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Dapper_Swindler posted:sure but ukraine is a big loving country with a gently caress ton of people plus poo poo will be all over the net and russia will have to devote considerable resources to doing poo poo. Not Poland. If Putin has designs on reestablishing the "Soviet Empire" you have to look to the Baltic States. If Putin ever decided to come for NATO countries it would be those; however, given how poorly Russia has performed in the Ukraine, it has to be fully in Putin's mind now that he would have no hope at all of intimidating (or trying to fight) NATO.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:12
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Alchenar posted:Churchill repeatedly tried quite hard to get himself killed in battle. He did indeed. Both during the First World War, and the Second World War with his whole "being one of the first to cross the Rhine" stunt.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:13
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i have heard possibly the balkins too. Aren't US troops going to the Balkans right now? They're all NATO, right?
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Feb 25, 2022 15:15
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I wonder what China thinks of all this, especially in regards to their own thing with Taiwan. I imagine it looks even less feasible, though let's be honest, an invasion of Taiwan would still be YEARS away even if they did see this war as successful enough to emulate/learn from.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:16
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More generally I am just not very convinced by people who are consistently alive pontificating about how great it is to be dead. It's very poetic but I suspect the actual dead might have a different opinion, were it possible to ask them.
OwlFancier fucked around with this message at 15:19 on Feb 25, 2022 |
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Feb 25, 2022 15:16
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TulliusCicero posted:Quick interesting question: let's say the Ukranian government in the west is able to get through to NATO and Ukraine becomes a member in the midst of this conflict, like right now. I know this is a hail mary that would require insane amounts of negotation among the European members but let's say it happens: Hungary has been blocking Ukraine from joining the NATO repeatedly, and Orban is still sucking up to Putin even now. We had multiple statements from our government yesterday and today about the war. Non of them mentioned anything about RUSSIA, RUSSIANS, PUTIN or ATTACK. They all state that the worst has happened and there is a war in Ukraine.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:17
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Aren't the Russians actually in Kiev at this point? That's what the NY Times headline for now (2/25/22, 9am EST) is saying.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:17
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ZombieLenin posted:Furthermore, I would say to you... tell the Taliban about how resisting the overwhelming firepower of what Putin's invasion has clearly demonstrated is the most capable armed forces on earth--by orders of magnitude--achieves nothing in the long run. Here's a hint... it took twenty years, but the Taliban defeated the most capable army on earth. It’s been said before but Ukraine lacks anything like North Afghanistan for a resistance movement to disappear to.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:18
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Alchenar posted:Churchill repeatedly tried quite hard to get himself killed in battle.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:18
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Eric Cantonese posted:Aren't the Russians actually in Kiev at this point? That's what the NY Times headline for now (2/25/22, 9am EST) is saying. They are actively surrounding it, but I don't know if the encirclement has closed yet.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:18
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https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1497198438634692611
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Feb 25, 2022 15:18
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ZombieLenin posted:He did indeed. Both during the First World War, and the Second World War with his whole "being one of the first to cross the Rhine" stunt. "Nothing in life is more exhilarating than being shot at without result" I believe he said
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Feb 25, 2022 15:19
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Eric Cantonese posted:Aren't the Russians actually in Kiev at this point? That's what the NY Times headline for now (2/25/22, 9am EST) is saying. It's a big city, but technically yes. They haven't taken control of it yet, though.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:19
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smoobles posted:Aren't US troops going to the Balkans right now? They're all NATO, right? you're thinking of the baltics. Of the balkans, Serbia, Bosnia and Kosovo have not joined. Serbia is p pro russia iirc and Bosnia's serb portion is led by an insane man who starts threatening secession and genocide anytime someone starts looking at his finances or tries to stop him from stealing everything so that's where it would be focused, if true.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:20
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ZombieLenin posted:Furthermore, I would say to you... tell the Taliban about how resisting the overwhelming firepower of what Putin's invasion has clearly demonstrated is the most capable armed forces on earth--by orders of magnitude--achieves nothing in the long run. Here's a hint... it took twenty years, but the Taliban defeated the most capable army on earth. Tell the Taliban to try that in neverending steppes.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:20
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I hope EU doesn’t sanction NATO too hard. 
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Feb 25, 2022 15:21
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ZombieLenin posted:Not Poland. If Putin has designs on reestablishing the "Soviet Empire" you have to look to the Baltic States. If Putin ever decided to come for NATO countries it would be those; however, given how poorly Russia has performed in the Ukraine, it has to be fully in Putin's mind now that he would have no hope at all of intimidating (or trying to fight) NATO. Assuming Putin wraps it up in Ukraine relatively quickly he will probably wait until Trump, or a Trump adjacent, is in the White House (Trump was definitely not a fan of NATO). Then make a play for the Baltic States and dare NATO to trigger article 5. Under someone like Trump, there's the very real risk that the USA would drag its heels and NATO is done at that point.
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Feb 25, 2022 15:21
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smoobles posted:Aren't US troops going to the Balkans right now? They're all NATO, right?
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