|
How many loving diamonds do Russians buy?!
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:21
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 22:40 |
|
|
Triskelli posted:How many loving diamonds do Russians buy?! A lot. Kleptocrats love the trimmings of wealth.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:22
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:I hope EU doesn’t sanction NATO too hard. Lmao, that's a nice typo
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:22
|
|
|
Eric Cantonese posted:Aren't the Russians actually in Kiev at this point? That's what the NY Times headline for now (2/25/22, 9am EST) is saying. They're in the outskirts but aside from some gunfire there's no evidence of them in the city proper yet. CommieGIR posted:They are actively surrounding it, but I don't know if the encirclement has closed yet. I've not seen anything about an encirclement, do you have a source?
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:23
|
|
|
This has always been the known weakness of assent based international governance, everyone wants carve-outs for pet industry.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:24
|
|
|
Hiro Protagonist posted:I wonder what China thinks of all this, especially in regards to their own thing with Taiwan. I imagine it looks even less feasible, though let's be honest, an invasion of Taiwan would still be YEARS away even if they did see this war as successful enough to emulate/learn from. I think tacitly supporting Russia while still banging on about sovereignty a very, handy stance for now. It allows for countries to bully other countries within the region, which is what the PRC basically wants to do for now. Unless the EU and the US are willing to take all the prolonged pain of escalated sanctions - and Western capitalism is basically a massive factor fighting against that - I think their end game is that Russia eventually gets a lot of what it wants without a full on worldwide recession being triggered. (China has been whining about upcoming US federal reserve interest rate hikes, so I think the economic consequences are the big reason why they haven't been even more supporting of what Putin has been doing.) https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/25/us/politics/us-china-russia-ukraine.html Plus, international law is a prestigious, but ultimately meaningless fiction. It's basically a body of principles that need to have other nations bring about consequences that come at a high cost for everyone. I don't know how supporting Russia really comes back to bite China on the rear end without western countries being willing to substantially rework their financial systems to fit some strict political agenda instead of the current setting of "chase the easiest and quickest profit possible."
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:24
|
|
|
EvilHawk posted:I've not seen anything about an encirclement, do you have a source? Correction: they may be further out than I thought, so they may not even have begun encirclement.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:24
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:A lot. Kleptocrats love the trimmings of wealth. I suspect diamonds are also a handy alternative way for engaging in illegal transactions and/or laundering money.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:25
|
|
|
I suspect China is giving some real side eye to their main world political ally kicking over economic sandcastles in a world where China is set to slowly gain from many of those economic sandcastles. Not enough to DO anything, but I suspect they’ll also abide by sanctions and be pretty cool on Putin’s political goals for a while. Which is also why Taiwan is less likely to be invaded, as economic and political pressures will do the job more safely, if slowly, than lobbing bombs over the strait.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:26
|
|
|
Ghetto Prince posted:Most members would veto. If everyone had a stroke and Ukraine somehow became a member article 5 would still not be activated, it just takes one Russian commander panicking and ordering a tactical nuke, which is a capability they have, to maybe trigger a full exchange. In all seriousness though, do you really think that England, France, or the US would consider an invasion of Estonia an "existential threat" to themselves? That a US president and US citizens would weather nuclear bombings as the unavoidable cost of defending freedom in Latvia? Sure, the US is sending troops there now as a show of force, but do you truly feel we would do the same if the build-up we saw in advance of this war was occurring on the borders of a NATO country?
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:26
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:Correction: they may be further out than I thought, so they may not even have begun encirclement. Yeah that's what I've seen. I don't think they've pushed much farther than the airport and nearby town yet.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:26
|
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:There were some factions in russia that clearly expected basically a repeat of 2014 and/or that the conflict would be done within an hour or two of russia launching the air campaign's opening salvo. This has been my take on it as well. And not even just "some factions" - I think senior leadership also believed this was going to be straightforward, nobody came to Ukraine's aid, they clearly weren't posturing for a defense (at least not overtly), the thought process was probably "Light casualties, a 1 week vacation in Ukraine to get rid of some undesirables and we'll be home by May." Of course, nobody here knows what information the Russian intelligence apparatus was feeding said leadership, or if they took it seriously. But by every observer's account I've seen, Russia made some very avoidable mistakes already.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:26
|
|
|
Baronash posted:In all seriousness though, do you really think that England, France, or the US would consider an invasion of Estonia an "existential threat" to themselves? That a US president and US citizens would weather nuclear bombings as the unavoidable cost of defending freedom in Latvia? Sure, the US is sending troops there now as a show of force, but do you truly feel we would do the same if the build-up we saw in advance of this war was occurring on the borders of a NATO country? Doesn't matter. If we fail to uphold the very idea of NATO common defense, NATO will quickly fall apart. We'd have to respond militarily in some way most likely, especially after what we've seen the past few days. Putin is looking for any way possible to break NATO, if we give him that NATO will quickly empty of members.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:27
|
|
|
Imagine all the tweets from Trump begging Putin to stop all this if he were president.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:29
|
|
|
Nfcknblvbl posted:Imagine all the tweets from Trump begging Putin to stop all this if he were president. "I had a nice talk with my friend Putin and he says he didn't do anything wrong, I believe him! I believe him!"
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:29
|
|
|
smoobles posted:Aren't US troops going to the Balkans right now? They're all NATO, right? i dont mean now. if they do another invasion it will probably be a couple more years away.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:30
|
|
|
Nfcknblvbl posted:Imagine all the tweets from Trump begging Putin to stop all this if he were president. Imagine how grateful Trump's handlers are that he's banned from Twitter.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:30
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:Doesn't matter. If we fail to uphold the very idea of NATO common defense, NATO will quickly fall apart. We'd have to respond militarily in some way most likely, especially after what we've seen the past few days. 50/50 NATO is purely bluster/posturing and if/when push came to shove I wouldn't skip a breath to hear that nobody wants to dogpile into war and they let whatever poor NATO country fend for itself.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:31
|
|
|
So as a purely treaty matter I've always been pretty skeptical that the US would commit suicide over the Baltics, regardless of what's on paper. But the reason the US is sending more forces into eastern Europe now that Russia is actively engaged in a major invasion is to assure allies through the presence of tripwire forces that our commitment is more significant than just words on paper, and Americans would be on the ground dying in their defense from the start, creating conditions in which it would be impossible to abandon them. Of course that's a signal to Russia not to get any ideas, since the whole point of MAD is to make sure there's no ambiguity so they don't do something that'll set the whole thing off.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:31
|
|
|
Shooting Blanks posted:This has been my take on it as well. And not even just "some factions" - I think senior leadership also believed this was going to be straightforward, nobody came to Ukraine's aid, they clearly weren't posturing for a defense (at least not overtly), the thought process was probably "Light casualties, a 1 week vacation in Ukraine to get rid of some undesirables and we'll be home by May."
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:31
|
|
|
https://www.politico.eu/article/china-xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-negotiate-ukraine/ China is now unhappy with Russia.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:31
|
|
|
boofhead posted:The chemical tanker ship that supposedly got hit looks to be Moldovan flagged anyway, not Romanian. So not NATO and not EU Isn't Moldova landlocked by Ukraine? I guess that's not one of the criteria to own ships.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:31
|
|
|
Baronash posted:In all seriousness though, do you really think that England, France, or the US would consider an invasion of Estonia an "existential threat" to themselves? That a US president and US citizens would weather nuclear bombings as the unavoidable cost of defending freedom in Latvia? Sure, the US is sending troops there now as a show of force, but do you truly feel we would do the same if the build-up we saw in advance of this war was occurring on the borders of a NATO country? Of course. Once you give up on any part of NATO, it all falls apart. It's a silly question. Countries that ignore their treaty obligations quickly become paraiahs, as no one is willing to trust them in the future.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:31
|
|
|
DandyLion posted:50/50 NATO is purely bluster/posturing and if/when push came to shove I wouldn't skip a breath to hear that nobody wants to dogpile into war and they let whatever poor NATO country fend for itself. Most times yes. But we also hadn't seen something like what is happening in Ukraine in age. This is new and changes the game for NATO entirely.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:32
|
|
|
Think the plan is to set up some sort of East Ukraine puppet state, as per usual? Russia just keeps doing the same thing to its neighbors over and over again
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:32
|
|
|
Shooting Blanks posted:Imagine how grateful Trump's handlers are that he's banned from Twitter. He still managed to suck up to Putin in that statement on Fox News about him being a genius, which was so blatantly propaganda that loving Laura Imgraham cut him off Trump will never stop loving Putin because to him Putin is ideal Trump
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:33
|
|
|
Shooting Blanks posted:Imagine how grateful Trump's handlers are that he's banned from Twitter. A blessed post.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:34
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:Most times yes. But we also hadn't seen something like what is happening in Ukraine in age. This is new and changes the game for NATO entirely. yeah after this week. i think NATO would fight at least in the "push them out of the country" sense. Phlegmish posted:Think the plan is to set up some sort of East Ukraine puppet state, as per usual? Russia just keeps doing the same thing to its neighbors over and over again i dont think it will work
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:34
|
|
|
Shooting Blanks posted:This has been my take on it as well. And not even just "some factions" - I think senior leadership also believed this was going to be straightforward, nobody came to Ukraine's aid, they clearly weren't posturing for a defense (at least not overtly), the thought process was probably "Light casualties, a 1 week vacation in Ukraine to get rid of some undesirables and we'll be home by May." I'm not sure how much to take various Twitter Blue Check people at their word, but if Ukraine took this long to go into full mobilization, doesn't that mean that much of the urban areas like Kiev haven't been fully set up for maximum friction and blockades? I feel weird saying this like some kind of armchair strategist, but it doesn't sound like they've set up the various deathtraps you would need for maximum urban guerrilla warfare. Maybe it still lasts only a week? And as far as Zelensky being left out to dry, I think the only move that has surprised me from the west is the EU being as half-assed about the sanctions as they are. I wasn't expecting quite that level of craven industry-specific carveouts. I'd like to think Ukraine's government was otherwise realistic enough to know how much the West would actually come to help. History already has plenty of examples that we aren't sending in tanks or enforcing a no-fly zone against the Russians.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:34
|
|
|
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-plans-to-freeze-russia-vladimir-putin-and-sergey-lavrov-assets/ Direct sanctions on Putin’s wealth, and seems that US/U.K. pressure on SWIFT might be working.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:34
|
|
|
Phlegmish posted:Think the plan is to set up some sort of East Ukraine puppet state, as per usual? Russia just keeps doing the same thing to its neighbors over and over again If it ain't fixed, don't broke it
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:35
|
|
|
Phlegmish posted:Think the plan is to set up some sort of East Ukraine puppet state, as per usual? Russia just keeps doing the same thing to its neighbors over and over again It smells like he might try to force that, if nothing happens on diplomatic front.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:35
|
|
|
I'm extremely impressed by Ukrainian opsec, there's virtually no video or photo available of active Ukrainian military. Meanwhile the Russian tank drivers were playing with their smartphones all the time so you could just follow troop movement on Google maps. It definitely seems Russian command severely underestimated resistance, or alternatively, they fed the lower ranks propaganda instead of the truth. I'd reckon incompetence because of yes-men, right-wing brainrot, and political/career/lobby appointments at the top is more likely than an effort to keep the truth from the troops. That's not to say Russia totally outclasses Ukraine in this engagement of course, but i don't see a quick end to this war one way or another. A prolonged urban fight over Kyiv and other cities will heavily impact Russian morale I would say. What are they even fighting for? How many true believers are there? On the other hand, after what I saw the past week I'd wager that a significant portion of the Ukrainian populace will fight to the last man.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:35
|
|
|
Sinteres posted:So as a purely treaty matter I've always been pretty skeptical that the US would commit suicide over the Baltics, regardless of what's on paper. But the reason the US is sending more forces into eastern Europe now that Russia is actively engaged in a major invasion is to assure allies through the presence of tripwire forces that our commitment is more significant than just words on paper, and Americans would be on the ground dying in their defense from the start, creating conditions in which it would be impossible to abandon them. Of course that's a signal to Russia not to get any ideas, since the whole point of MAD is to make sure there's no ambiguity so they don't do something that'll set the whole thing off. This also was boosted by France kindly reminding Putin that NATO has nuclear weapons and MAD still applies when Putin started doing his Trump immitations about using them.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:36
|
|
|
Hello thread people. What is the definition of neutral status in this context? I am seeing these words tossed around without an understanding of what it means for UKR.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:36
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:I wouldn't discount the possibility that they knew that this (or worse) is how it could go and just didn't give a poo poo. From their point of view, is this really a problem? It's still only a few days and if a few thousand conscrips die here or there, what does it matter. Yeah, it's always been my understanding that Russian military are a lot less bothered about a few losses here and there.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:37
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah after this week. i think NATO would fight at least in the "push them out of the country" sense. NATO countries won't so much as stop buying Russian oil, if Russia or a similar power attacked a small NATO member they would sit back and grumble and do absolutely nothing if it meant a confrontation might hurt their bank accounts.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:37
|
|
|
Inner Light posted:Hello thread people. What is the definition of neutral status in this context? I am seeing these words tossed around without an understanding of what it means for UKR. It means that Russia forces Ukraine to not enter any international obligations that it disapproves of. Basically, Russian control over foreign and economic affairs.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:38
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:Correction: they may be further out than I thought, so they may not even have begun encirclement. From what I've gathered, the Russians claims to have retaken Antonov/Hostomel Airport and blocked the western approaches to Kyiv. I have my doubts it's as clear cut as that. But considering the majority of Ukrainian forces would be to the west of Kyiv the city can still be reinforced.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:38
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 22:40 |
|
|
The Baltic states are also part of the EU, which has its own mutual defense treaties and nuclear capability. That's part of why Finland never saw a need to officially join , aside from not wanting to provoke Russia.
|
|
#
?
Feb 25, 2022 15:38
|
|
