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Glimm posted:I'm not sure when this was made or exactly where it is but the background isn't super generic: This is near president's administration in Kyiv, supposedly shortly after Russian media tried claiming that he has fled.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:33
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Mokotow posted:At the border now between Poland and Ukraine. Absolute mess, cold, terrified people coming through every once in a while. Since there’s no organization, me and some likeminded people waiting but despite the government announcements people will be free to go through, only cars are coming. I already have contacts to someone on the other side but they’re saying it’ll be two hours for them to cross. gently caress its cold. Badass, dude. You're almost certainly saving some lives. Stay safe!
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Feb 25, 2022 18:34
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https://twitter.com/zakavkaza/status/1497252499127943172 I think folks are concerned about how China would respond if a raid backed by nuclear blackmail turns out to work out just great. On that note: https://twitter.com/Jardine_bradley/status/1497262350361145345
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Feb 25, 2022 18:34
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Mokotow posted:At the border now between Poland and Ukraine. Absolute mess, cold, terrified people coming through every once in a while. Since there’s no organization, me and some likeminded people waiting but despite the government announcements people will be free to go through, only cars are coming. I already have contacts to someone on the other side but they’re saying it’ll be two hours for them to cross. gently caress its cold. You're a champion for doing this. 
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Feb 25, 2022 18:34
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I entirely understand the instinctive response to fight for what you believe is important, but I am more skeptical at the cynicism of encouraging that response and supplying arms to turn people into cannon fodder for what might not do a whole lot of good. The desire to fight is understandable, but a government encouraging its civilians to throw themselves into battle is more than toeing the line between understandable and exploiting their emotions, imo. In the moment I don't doubt it is heroic, and afterwards I don't doubt they'll be remembered in song and story, but more importantly, they'll be dead. OwlFancier fucked around with this message at 18:36 on Feb 25, 2022 |
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Feb 25, 2022 18:34
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Update from Chernihiv: Lots of noise explosions in the morning. The building that's burning is the SSU. A few bridges were destroyed by Ukrainians. Ukrainians were intercepting missiles or possibly aircraft. It is quiet now, apparently.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:34
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Moscow suggesting Belarus as the negotiation spot does not make me feel this effort at peace talks is being done in good faith!BigglesSWE posted:One is a fluke, three strikes seem like a pattern. I guess they're trying to stop shipping to Ukraine?
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Feb 25, 2022 18:35
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BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:I don't agree with anyone who thinks Putin is going to have demands that are all palatable to Ukraine, but painting him as an irrational and unreasonable lunatic is also nonsense. This is the outcome of geopolitical jockeying over the status of Ukraine since 2013. Russia's choices are bad for everyone except Russia, and it's up to the international community to also make it a bad choice for Russia. He is a lunatic He started a full scale invasion of a neighbor with zero rationale behind it If he had any marbles left in his brain he would have done the usual soft power/buying out of politicians after Yanukovich failed. Instead whole world sees through the charade.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:35
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OwlFancier posted:I entirely understand the instinctive response to fight for what you believe is important, but I am more skeptical at the cynicism of encouraging that response and supplying arms to turn people into cannon fodder for what might not do a whole lot of good. Individuals have agency. If they choose to fight and want help, we can try to provide some of that help. Give the Ukrainian people the smallest amount of respect by acknowledging their choice to fight for their homeland, man.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:36
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Zero_Grade posted:Moscow suggesting Belarus as the negotiation spot does not make me feel this effort at peace talks is being done in good faith! I suspect there was a tongue in cheek motive for Ukraine suggesting Warsaw....
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Feb 25, 2022 18:36
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It doesn't say much good about human nature, but national myths generated during wartime definitely have a galvanising effect on community.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:37
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NATO press conference live now https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/events_67375.htm Talking about "Being prepared to pay a price"
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Feb 25, 2022 18:38
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How are u posted:Man this is hugely embarrassing and bad for Putin. If the US was implementing this type of invasion we'd have actually done what we'd planned to do. Russian military might is a complete paper tiger, Putin is lucky he has 6,000 nukes to sit on and hold the world hostage with. We also would not attack a country with an army close to the strength of Ukraine. We only pick on countries that can't really fight back. That said, i'm not sure how continually bringing in how the US would have fared does anyone any good, and is a really grim way to discuss a war where poor people on both sides are dying for seemingly no reason.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:38
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https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1497259604119543814 - Long video of someone driving past what I think is a long column of Ukranian armour and support vehicles that's been completely destroyed, outside of Kherson I dont understand the language, so please correct me if I got it backwards.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:38
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Dwesa posted:According to Putin himself, this is result of Lenin inventing Ukraine and Ukrainians. And even if he has less insane motives (like plain old imperialism), literally every data point the past months proves that he is a liar, his only negotiating technique is lying, and not a single word from his mouth can be trusted. Everything he said to Ukraine was a lie, everything he said to Biden, Macron, Schulz... was a lie. THe only things that were true in any way were his threats. Anybody who'd side with him, saying he's still just a elder statesman looking for a honest talk, is worse than a useful idiot.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:38
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I feel like EU decisionmakers are still in "responding to the last crisis" thinking and are pulling out options for things that would be considered final options for an escalation for a frozen conflict scenario, rather than a ground invasion on multiple fronts aimed at occupation and government replacement as if it's still 1956 That's not unexpected as bureaucracy goes, but I think we'll see more creative policy trickle out slowly over the next couple of months
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Feb 25, 2022 18:41
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Mokotow posted:At the border now between Poland and Ukraine. Absolute mess, cold, terrified people coming through every once in a while. Since there’s no organization, me and some likeminded people waiting but despite the government announcements people will be free to go through, only cars are coming. I already have contacts to someone on the other side but they’re saying it’ll be two hours for them to cross. gently caress its cold. You're doing great work. I applaud your heroism.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:42
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KitConstantine posted:NATO press conference live now
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Feb 25, 2022 18:42
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How are u posted:Individuals have agency. If they choose to fight and want help, we can try to provide some of that help. Give the Ukrainian people the smallest amount of respect by acknowledging their choice to fight for their homeland, man. The cemetaries are full of people with individual agency who probably felt much the same way in their time. I simply do not believe in the idea that a heroic death is commendable, you're just dead either way. I'm sorry, I do not think I can ever think otherwise, I would rather they were still alive to live in that land. I've seen far too many people rationalize their deaths as meaningful, and in the end they are all just dead.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:42
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Inferior Third Season posted:The intersection of expertise and data needed to form a meaningful opinion on this is so esoteric and weird that all discussions like that should be taken with a mountain of salt. FWIW it was a Swiss meteorologist talking specifically about likelihood of dust in the area. https://twitter.com/Kachelmann/status/1496980254375743497
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Feb 25, 2022 18:43
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Putin looks pissed lol. He probably genuinely expected to be treated as a liberator and everyone to just lay down their arms. Never get high on your own supply of propaganda
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Feb 25, 2022 18:44
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Shooting Blanks posted:This. I understand why Putin is going into Ukraine, even though it's a demonstrably bad a provocative thing to do from a Western perspective. I don't understand at all why they're shooting at commercial ships though - that will eventually get a very different reaction. It's almost impossible to misidentify a ship these days, so it definitely wasn't by accident. And if it was decisions by some loose cannon naval commander or whoever, they really need to condemn that from the top, own the mistake, promise to execute those responsible or whatever, because gently caress, attacking neutral country merchant ships is really going to escalate things.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:44
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NATO press conference: Confirmed that they are building up NATO forces on borders, including preparing 100 jets. Said that Russia's pushing to reduce support to allies means that NATO must provide more support - specifically called out Georgia and Moldovia. Says it's a full fledged invasion of Ukraine and in response to a question of what support will be provided if Kyiv falls says that they are in close contact with the government of Ukraine, monitoring the situation (mealy mouthed platitudes here) - says NATO allies will 'continue to provide military/humanitarian/financial support' to Ukraine, no specifics. National press agency of Ukraine asked if NATO will provide anti-air weapons to Ukraine - NATO allies confirmed that military equipment support includes potentially suppling anti-air weapons. Still on-going, btw. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/events_67375.htm
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Feb 25, 2022 18:44
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OwlFancier posted:The cemetaries are full of people with individual agency who probably felt much the same way in their time. I simply do not believe in the idea that a heroic death is commendable, you're just dead either way. I'm sorry, I do not think I can ever think otherwise, I would rather they were still alive to live in that land. I've seen far too many people rationalize their deaths as meaningful, and in the end they are all just dead. Good thing you're not leading Ukrainians into quiet deaths in camps and gulags then.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:44
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StarBegotten posted:Yeah its amazing isnt it? It's almost like "Fight or Flight" is a human response to fear and threat, and people have a hard time understanding the "Fight" part of it.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:45
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How are u posted:I think some folks just have a hard time imagining that anything is worth dying for. The average american while draping themselves in the flag would be totally ok surrendering to foreign occupation and a suspension of democracy so long as gas prices were guaranteed low and the supermarket shelves stayed stocked and affordable. The ideal of enduring any sort of hardship, let alone dying, for a cause is totally foreign. Well to white cis male americans anyways, the others ones have to fight and die and sacrifice every day just to maintain their rights. It's just funny because they're the ones loudest and proudest about their country but even something as basic as "wear a thin paper mask sometimes" is too much of a burden to bear to help save the lives of their fellow countrymen.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:45
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Grouchio posted:Oil or Swift price? Hasn't come up in the question period yet and wasn't part of the initial statement that I heard.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:45
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Mokotow posted:At the border now between Poland and Ukraine. Absolute mess, cold, terrified people coming through every once in a while. Since there’s no organization, me and some likeminded people waiting but despite the government announcements people will be free to go through, only cars are coming. I already have contacts to someone on the other side but they’re saying it’ll be two hours for them to cross. gently caress its cold. It sounds really miserable, I'm glad you're there to welcome some people who are really in need of help! 
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Feb 25, 2022 18:45
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https://twitter.com/guyelster/status/1497265050754682887 that may explain the police cars on the stream
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Feb 25, 2022 18:46
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TheRat posted:https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1497259604119543814 - Long video of someone driving past what I think is a long column of Ukranian armour and support vehicles that's been completely destroyed, outside of Kherson You got it right. Dudes in the car speculate that they got caught out with MRLS fire, accents clearly local. Edit: The convoy itself is nowhere near 15 km long though. Edit2: Subsequently, they drive past destroyed Russian vehicles. This video is probably a bit less damning than it may feel, but trust Kofman's assessment over mine every time. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 18:48 on Feb 25, 2022 |
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Feb 25, 2022 18:46
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cinci zoo sniper posted:You got it right. Dudes in the car speculate that they got caught out with MRLS fire, accents clearly local. They also don't appear destroyed, just abandoned. Which, yeah you don't stay in the lightly armored vehicles if artillery is coming.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:47
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Re: usefulness of negotiations, there needs to be understanding of what Putin’s objectives actually are. His government has offered several, at different times and to different audiences. -Protection of the separatist republics -Guarantee of Ukraine not joining NATO -cessation of expansion or even rollback of NATO in the region -“Denazification and demilitarization” of Ukraine — i.e., regime change and occupation Now, which of these are his core objectives and which are smokescreens? We can draw inferences based on the method he has chosen — full invasion aiming at decapitation of the government. This is an extremely expensive and risky plan, and let’s assume it was tailored to the actual goals of Putin — he’s not going to these measures just for kicks. Such a large invasion is only consistent with the fourth stated objective. The separatists could have been protected via a much smaller intervention focused on their claimed territories. Lower expense, fewer dead Russians, smaller sanctions, and no way Ukraine is able to dislodge them. Similarly, blockage of joining NATO was already achieved in the short and medium term. As everyone has recognized, Ukraine was not joining NATO anytime soon. Full invasion does nothing towards this end — even if it gets a government to agree to amend the Constitution or whatever, that’s not worth the paper it’s written on, unless, of course, Russian troops are at hand to enforce it. Third, full invasion of Ukraine does nothing towards the third objective. Quite the opposite, obviously. Which leaves “denazification and demilitarization” as the only one of Putin’s stated objectives that is consistent with the means he has chosen. This imo lends weight to the argument that nothing Ukraine could have conceded would have been able to forestall invasion — everything else Putin claimed to want (Crimea, separatist republics, NATO) could have been gotten much more cheaply.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:47
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Baronjutter posted:The ideal of enduring any sort of hardship, let alone dying, for a cause is totally foreign. I think for a lot of us it's helplessness. How can we help? I do my piddling part here in the States, donating money/resources and volunteering for Get Out The Vote stuff, but it really feels so useless in the face of a handful of insane fuckers who ruin the world for everyone. I think the stories of everyday folks standing up to invaders helps morale around the world, even if it's more myth than truth.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:48
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Nenonen posted:It's going to be just like Stalingrad, except Ukrainians are the surrounded 6th Army. Don't forget the Red Army suffered horrendous losses as well: over a million casualties. The German and Axis armies just couldn't afford them as easily. I don't think we'll see something on that scale, but if Ukraine has a few ten thousand soldiers in Kiev, they could hold out a very long time if their morale holds. Somaen posted:The last time an Ukrainian president fled Kyiv it did not look good. Doing anything similar to Yanukovich is very bad optics I don't think it's about optics. I think he's actually just a brave person. Baronash posted:...do you really think that England, France, or the US would consider an invasion of Estonia an "existential threat" to themselves? That a US president and US citizens would weather nuclear bombings as the unavoidable cost of defending freedom in Latvia? Sure, the US is sending troops there now as a show of force, but do you truly feel we would do the same if the build-up we saw in advance of this war was occurring on the borders of a NATO country? Nfcknblvbl posted:Imagine all the tweets from Trump begging Putin to stop all this if he were president. He'd be alternating between cheering him on and saying that he would have captured Kiev by now. Operational Stuff: Here's my best take on what the Russian military is trying to do:
Keep in mind that Russia has a much higher tolerance for casualties than the West has been since the 1991 Gulf War. Tank stuff:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-explosive_anti-tank Opsec stuff: Ukraine's opsec does seem pretty tight right now. I wonder if part of it was the lessons learned in 2014. The Russians basically deleted two Ukrainian tank battalions in that war with the following sequence:
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Feb 25, 2022 18:50
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Shooting Blanks posted:This. I understand why Putin is going into Ukraine, even though it's a demonstrably bad a provocative thing to do from a Western perspective. I don't understand at all why they're shooting at commercial ships though - that will eventually get a very different reaction. something fucky is going on here. Wonder how long this attacking of ships on the Black Sea will go on. Or be allowed to go on.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:50
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Dwesa posted:According to Putin himself, this is result of Lenin inventing Ukraine and Ukrainians. TulliusCicero posted:Have you ever considered, and I know this might be a hard one to hear so maybe sit down, drink some water, maybe do a breathing exercise: fatherboxx posted:He is a lunatic Yeah, it all comes down to one dipshit speech. It's certainly not the entire post-USSR history between Russia and Ukraine, and particularly all the post-revolution fights as most of Ukraine leaves Russia's sphere of influence. Russia is not just obliterating Ukraine because "IT'S OURSSSSS" and you're all buying into a really astonishingly simple narrative to think so. No, it's not just about NATO, it's about Russia wanting to expand power while the entire western world is hoping for a Ukraine that leaves Russia's influence behind. It's brutal, it's violent, it's an awful thing for most of the world, but it can all be rationalized. The reason this isn't just semantics is because the constant painting of Putin as an insane infantile moron is just going to become justification for the west to abandon challenging diplomacy. There may have been no sensible way of appeasing Putin before this, and that's fine, but the way this situation deteriorated had me pretty loving concerned about the way we're handling difficult relations elsewhere, like China.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:50
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Putinist Tankie is a confused idiot. Revolutionary Romanticism is always incoherent.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:51
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ronya posted:I feel like EU decisionmakers are still in "responding to the last crisis" thinking and are pulling out options for things that would be considered final options for an escalation for a frozen conflict scenario, rather than a ground invasion on multiple fronts aimed at occupation and government replacement as if it's still 1956 Yeah, it's very clear that they're context switching on the go. We had supposed package confirmed by 3am Europe this night, with "nuclear options" clearly off the table, and now we've gone through like 2-3 new sanctions versions today, and now everything nuclear, sans crude oil, is on the table, including direct Putin sanctions and SWIFT blockade.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:51
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OwlFancier posted:The cemetaries are full of people with individual agency who probably felt much the same way in their time. I simply do not believe in the idea that a heroic death is commendable, you're just dead either way. I'm sorry, I do not think I can ever think otherwise, I would rather they were still alive to live in that land. I've seen far too many people rationalize their deaths as meaningful, and in the end they are all just dead. Some people (yourself it sounds like) see life in any form as preferable to death. Others disagree.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:52
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CommieGIR posted:They also don't appear destroyed, just abandoned. Which, yeah you don't stay in the lightly armored vehicles if artillery is coming. A lot of them are extremely destroyed. Im guessing the rest got stuck and abandoned rather than being sittings ducks.
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Feb 25, 2022 18:52
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