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Huggybear posted:Yeah but that's a low loss for aircraft in a peer to peer to environment, even if exaggerated. It suggests that Russia is being extremely air-cautious, which is pretty interesting - very little air engagement. Any modern peer to peer engagement should see a high loss of aircraft because you need to saturate and also accept attrition. Also, the lack of cruise missile usage by Russians is bizarre, unless I am wrong. There is no doubt that NATO satellite coverage is abetting Ukraine. There is some high level fuckery going on with milsat and cyber oversight. I honestly wonder if the Chinese are in that sphere. I have been saying since Putin started the build up that I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese are supporting this directly or indirectly to get a sneak preview on the West's tactics and capabilities for their invasion of Taiwan.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:17
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That 3500 KIA number is really dumb, for reference that's roughly how many Allied soldiers were killed in the D-Day invasion and this isn't that.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:17
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Delthalaz posted:No idea what he's saying but he's letting everyone know he's still there and still alive Translation (unverified) https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1497455650883919875?t=UBgsNG2Kjn944DnMDbHHBw&s=19
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Feb 26, 2022 07:18
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SoggyBobcat posted:Most definitely, but if you cut those numbers in half or even quarter them, that's still incredibly bad for Russia. Russia doesn't really use twitter or facebook I think, you'd have to go looking for that elsewhere, also in Russian language domestic news. Though it still feels like if they had much to show they'd be broadcasting that to the world as well...
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Feb 26, 2022 07:19
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Mokotow posted:Hello friends, I would like to end this day by giving you a summary of what you all achieved. You absolute legend.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:19
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https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1497454588412284933 https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1497456037070315520
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Feb 26, 2022 07:20
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cr0y posted:I acknowledge that we are probably in our own echo chamber, with that being said. If even a quarter of these stories are true about ukrainians and their resolve.....just....speechless. Some parts of how the resistance is playing out are surprisingly predictable: Ukraine is a very large chunk of land with millions of people whose desire to not be Russian vastly eclipses the degree to which any of the conscripted Russian saps foraging for themselves deep in enemy territory ever wanted Ukraine If Poland is committed to being a colluding 'safe haven' that Russia can't gently caress around with ye where native ukranians can dart back into their own country with freshly loaded anti-vehicle munitions, then you have at least some plausible scenarios for insurrection that Russia cannot fully contain.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:20
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Mokotow posted:Hello friends, I would like to end this day by giving you a summary of what you all achieved. You did good. Now rest like a champion, because you are one.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:20
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Randarkman posted:Russia doesn't really use twitter or facebook I think, you'd have to go looking for that elsewhere, also in Russian language domestic news. Thats a major, major major failing on their part if true.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:20
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Telsa Cola posted:In regards to training, maybe? I feel like a lot of equipment like that is fairly idiot proof due to a combination of high stress environments and also having an extremely wide range of people who are going to need to use it. From reports Javs have been doing work so they likely have a body of trained folk they could utilize. one of the advantages of javelins is that they are stupid easy to use compared to other, equally lethal ATGMs. basically a javelin is two pieces, the computer/sensor bit and the rocket tube. you clip a rocket tube onto the computer bit and peep through it to find the thing you want to delete. press the right buttons (its easy) and the rocket tube shoots out a rocket that murders whatever you were pointing at. then detach that tube and clip on a new one and you're ready to delete another thing the computer/sensor bit, which is like a laptop you hold in front of your face, there are training models of this bit. basically you just play a video game where you delete simulated tanks. you can give an illiterate goat farmer one of these things and talk him through how to use it and after a couple hours of playing the video game you can hand him a real one and he'll be causing mass casualties. this is a major reason why javelin operators are so stingy with handing them out, they are incredibly easy to use compared to the amount of chaos contained within. you don't want to make them easy to use because you expect your soldiers to be bone stupid, you make them easy to use so that soldiers who have been awake for three days and are powered only by adrenaline, nicotine, and caffeine can still rack up a 90%+ kill rate a 40 year old ukrainian reservist who vaguely knows how to use a javelin, instructing some scared 20 year old newbie on how to use it, vs a brand new russian tank? smart money is still on the javelin guys. the javelin was designed in the 1980s so that freaking out american soldiers facing waves of soviet tanks could just pop rocket after rocket into the tanks with a pretty good chance of getting a kill each time. smartly positioned, in an ambush, modern fourth gen ATGMs are wildly dangerous to tanks, and the javelin is basically the cruise control ez mode of fourth generation ATGMs
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Feb 26, 2022 07:21
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Djarum posted:I have been saying since Putin started the build up that I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese are supporting this directly or indirectly to get a sneak preview on the West's tactics and capabilities for their invasion of Taiwan. More like a measure of the western response which seems to be getting more robust. The West is pretty mindful that the Chinese are watching.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:22
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I'm sure the Chinese are glad to see this, but on the other hand their problem will be somewhat different from that of Russia here.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:23
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KitConstantine posted:Translation (unverified) Correct me if I'm wrong but I feel like all this could be pre-recorded, even so the propaganda value is huge and he looks like a stud and it has to be demoralizing if you are a Russian watching this. Him just goofing around in the capital drinking coffee while Putin screams to his own people that everything is going swimmingly and they are crushing the enemy is some master class poo poo.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:24
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Serious question, if things are going so bad for Russia, why do they have troops marching on Kiev streets? Or did I not understand what was going on in that twitter video a few pages back?
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Feb 26, 2022 07:24
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Sir John Falstaff posted:I think that's one of the things that makes this fight harder for Russia if a quick, decapitation-strike-style approach doesn't work--it's harder to just pancake cities in Ukraine like Russia did in Syria or Chechnya. These are people who are culturally and ethnically similar to Russians and therefore a lot more sympathetic to people in Russia. Not saying it won't happen, just harder to do. In Syria and Chechnya, it was easier to dehumanize the enemies since you could paint them as jihadists and terrorists. Civilians could be be called jihadists, and war crimes could be blamed on jihadist groups. There's really no dynamic like that at play in Ukraine. Russia has tried hard to paint Ukrainians as Nazi's, but outside of Russia itself (where you can't trust polls anyways) it doesn't seem to have sold. Nobody in Ukraine is going to be going around massacring civilians except for Russia, and everything that happens there is going to be Russia's to wear. If it gets to the point that they're leveling whole residential buildings and dropping bombs on breadlines like they did in Syria on a bunch of white non-Muslims, it's not going to play well around the world. This dynamic also makes it significantly easier for western nations to sell the idea of sending weapons into Poland and Ukraine en masse. acidx fucked around with this message at 07:29 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 07:24
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Randarkman posted:Russia doesn't really use twitter or facebook I think, you'd have to go looking for that elsewhere, also in Russian language domestic news. To some extent, I suspect the Russian military doesn't want to acknowledge casualties at all, on either side. acidx posted:In Syria and Chechnya, it was easier to dehumanize the enemies since you could paint them as jihadists and terrorists. Civilians could be be called jihadists, and war crimes could be blamed on jihadist groups. There's really no dynamic like that at play in Ukraine. Russia has tried hard to paint Ukrainians as Nazi's, but outside of Russia itself (where you can't trust polls anyways) it doesn't seem to have sold. Nobody in Ukraine is going to be going around massacring civilians except for Russia, and everything that happens there is going to be Russia's to wear. If it gets to the point that they're leveling whole residential buildings and dropping bombs on breadlines like they did in Syria on a bunch of white non-Muslims, it's not going to play well around the world. Yup, all of this. Ukrainians are primarily white Orthodox Christians, just like Russians. Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 07:39 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 07:25
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So what is Belarus's role, if any, in this?the popes toes posted:More like a measure of the western response which seems to be getting more robust. The West is pretty mindful that the Chinese are watching. I might be wrong, but I would guess the US response to an attack on Taiwan would be much more... active.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:25
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Small White Dragon posted:So what is Belarus's role, if any, in this? They have been supplying troops and staging areas to Russia. They are for all purposes full in on this with Russia.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:26
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I wonder what it's like to look at your country's leader and feel, well, anything other than vague contempt.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:26
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SourKraut posted:Probably, but you also love Russia a little too much it seems. I'm trying to caution people from being swept up in the romanticism of the idea of a heroic war. war is not heroic, it is a machine that churns out corpses. snake island was a senseless tragedy that claimed 13 lives. when I see tweets talking about arming civilians with rifles or teaching them to make Molotovs, all I can envision is them getting slaughtered by trained professionals, to say nothing of injuring themselves due to lack of training. in my mind, efforts to gussy up how brave dead soldiers were is just a means to trick others into feeding themselves to the war machine
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Feb 26, 2022 07:27
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Thank you for this. We should continue scheming to help individual folks if EE goons can fix.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:28
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Kraftwerk posted:How does US and Polish support help Ukraine now? Like how do you even distribute and move all those NLAWS and Javelin missiles to the front without getting your supply lines bombed to poo poo. As of yet, the Russians haven't been hitting the western transport lines, probably scared of AA and not to mention, how the gently caress would you even know which vehicles to shoot at? The new militia units are probably going to take horrendous casualties, but on the defensive they can often do some good work. Javs and Stingers will most likely go to regulars with previous experience, and if not, for the stinger at least it's a case of "turn on sensor, point at target, wait for tone, and fire missile". It won't be as effective due to not knowing engagement profiles and the like, but even if it causes the attacker to abort the attack, it's done the job.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:28
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A big flaming stink posted:I'm trying to caution people from being swept up in the romanticism of the idea of a heroic war. This ties directly into the whole "Not thinking anything is worth dying for" thing, you realize that right?
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Feb 26, 2022 07:28
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the popes toes posted:More like a measure of the western response which seems to be getting more robust. The West is pretty mindful that the Chinese are watching. It is why I am pretty sure the No Fly Zone has been such a no go. NATO doesn't want their hardware out where the Chinese can peep on it openly.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:28
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Kyiv morning aftermath https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1497458055591702536?t=cvnVXVwObZFTiV6thRL6JA&s=19
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Feb 26, 2022 07:29
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punk rebel ecks posted:Serious question, if things are going so bad for Russia, why do they have troops marching on Kiev streets? Kiev is only about 100 km from the border with Belarus, with the Russian superiority in aircraft and other material, it's not much of a surprise they have already reached Kiev. It's not that it's going completely pear-shaped, it's important to remember this: it's only been 48 hours and it's really to early to say much of anything with clarity other than obvious facts. Also I'll quote something I said earlier, not that it's really an original realization, but I think it's valid. Randarkman posted:It's not unlikely that the Ukrainians are actually outnumbering the Russians in Kyiv IMO, at least in terms of guys with rifles and AT launchers and such. So far the Russians haven't really manage to make decisive use of their airpower it seems like, except in allowing them to advance rapidly when Ukrainian forces haven't stood and fought, so that potential numerical disadvantage might make it very difficult for them to take Kyiv if they can't pull of these decapitation strikes they seem to be attempting. Randarkman posted:I'm beginning to honestly just think that the Russian invasion force for this (something south of 200k troops) just is too small for the task, unless they can actually manage a decapitation strike against Kyiv, and even then that might not magically give them control over the rest of the country.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:29
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Mechafunkzilla posted:That 3500 KIA number is really dumb, for reference that's roughly how many Allied soldiers were killed in the D-Day invasion and this isn't that. for what it's worth I trust the equipment figures more than the manpower losses and even divided by like half or more it's still significant. the last few days have been a slide show of new destroyed russian equipment almost nonstop. i've seen destroyed grad trucks on like three occasions in different places from different videos.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:30
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punk rebel ecks posted:Serious question, if things are going so bad for Russia, why do they have troops marching on Kiev streets? With the molotovs raining on the tank? That was from 2014. They are very close to Kiev though. Once they get into Kiev proper is when progress will slow dramatically though.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:30
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Small White Dragon posted:So what is Belarus's role, if any, in this? A lot of what the west is doing financially will be used as a template.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:31
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acidx posted:With the molotovs raining on the tank? That was from 2014. They are very close to Kiev though. Once they get into Kiev proper is when progress will slow dramatically though. well just consider that sort of thing will probably happen as the russians try to enter high rise areas. thats enough fire to blind and panic a whole crew inside a Tigr (their Russian MRAPs) almost certainly.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:31
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punk rebel ecks posted:Serious question, if things are going so bad for Russia, why do they have troops marching on Kiev streets? Depending on what video you're referring to, it might have been misattributed footage of something else. But even if it's not, when people say things are bad for Russia, they mean bad relative to what one might have expected from the Russian war machine, not bad in absolute terms. Nobody expects Ukraine to "win" this - the question is how much Ukraine can make Russia bleed for its victory. So far, it appears to be more blood than most were expecting.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:31
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Although financial war can very well be like the new MAD but better for flowers and living things.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:33
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A big flaming stink posted:in my mind, efforts to gussy up how brave dead soldiers were is just a means to trick others into feeding themselves to the war machine
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Feb 26, 2022 07:33
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Randarkman posted:Russia doesn't really use twitter or facebook I think, you'd have to go looking for that elsewhere, also in Russian language domestic news. Russia reports no losses. At all.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:34
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Small White Dragon posted:So what is Belarus's role, if any, in this?
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Feb 26, 2022 07:34
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raminasi posted:Depending on what video you're referring to, it might have been misattributed footage of something else. But even if it's not, when people say things are bad for Russia, they mean bad relative to what one might have expected from the Russian war machine, not bad in absolute terms. Nobody expects Ukraine to "win" this - the question is how much Ukraine can make Russia bleed for its victory. So far, it appears to be more blood than most were expecting. They might take Kyiv, but right now... I'm not sure they can actually conquer the country with what they have, unless the Ukrainian military either collapses (I'm not sure how important Kyiv is in terms of military logistics and all that) and/or Ukraine straight up surrenders following that.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:34
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A big flaming stink posted:I'm trying to caution people from being swept up in the romanticism of the idea of a heroic war. Any thoughts on the dead Russian soldiers? Should other Russian soldiers maybe start avoiding the situations where they might die for nothing?
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Feb 26, 2022 07:35
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Telsa Cola posted:This ties directly into the whole "Not thinking anything is worth dying for" thing, you realize that right? I was not a part of that conversation, but war has a proven track record of preying on people's ideals to get them to sacrifice themselves for little gain. of course things are worth dying for, but the history of war is a history of an insatiable beast that will say anything to conceal the fact that it it chews up ideals and leaves behind traumatized individuals and graves. To my mind, anything extolling the heroism of sacrifice is a lure placed by this beast.
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Feb 26, 2022 07:36
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Cugel the Clever posted:What is your alternative—capitulation and subjugation? Rather than telling Ukrainians to stop defending themselves, perhaps focus on getting Putin to turn off the war machine? While I'm generally not with his point of view, he isn't really telling the Ukrainians to do anything, we're just dorks talking and arguing on a dead forum. We are not having an effect on the morale or decision-making of anyone in this war. Except for this guy. Mokotow posted:*Awesome poo poo, get yourself some sleep*
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Feb 26, 2022 07:37
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Small White Dragon posted:So what is Belarus's role, if any, in this? Belarus is pretty much just a Russian client state, they don't have autonomous agency in foreign affairs. Due to their geographical location they've been the staging ground for one part of the assault. Djarum posted:It is why I am pretty sure the No Fly Zone has been such a no go. NATO doesn't want their hardware out where the Chinese can peep on it openly. The No Fly Zone is a nogo because a no-fly zone means shooting down russian aircraft, which would be a declaration of war. Personally I think that would be the best response regardless, but there's no doubt that at that point anything could happen. NATO hardware is on fully display quite often and openly, if you come to Norway this winter you can watch F-35s fly formation during operation Cold Response and watch the russian spy planes and boats track the exercise dilligently. Dante fucked around with this message at 07:46 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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