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Haramstufe Rot posted:Am I the only one who finds this really weird? 2 decades of social media and Marvel movies has given everyone donkey brains, and now people just want to LARP as military tacticians to sublimate their own personal feelings of powerlessness
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Feb 26, 2022 13:45
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EvilHawk posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497547030885019651 So tactic A failed, time to use tactic B. So tactic B failed, why not try tactic A? Though we are talking about such short time periods that this is almost definitely premature, so short it seems impossible to even distinguish normal operational delays and stoppages from "failure".
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Feb 26, 2022 13:45
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raverrn posted:https://twitter.com/RihoTerras/status/1497537193346220038?t=Wa-4YVEhX9Krs3e5TldzEg&s=19 Urals thing makes it sound like bullshit fanfiction, there is no need for a meeting away from Moscow In general, ignore any leaks that claim to be from the highest level fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 13:49 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 13:46
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raverrn posted:Who here dares to hope? I think it's nonsense mixed with things that are probably true to try and make it sound believable. Putin obviously expected a cost from doing this but the Western world is going far further and harder than it ever has in the past. I agree with Haramstufe that it's far too early to make any kind of call on how the war is going - but however the big picture is the Russian armed forces have made several really high profile unforced errors that harm their prestige. It is definitely the case that precision stockpiles will be limited and it's going to be very hard to replace any of the stuff that gets lost in this adventure. It should be intutively obvious that Putin would prefer a 3-4 day war in which Ukrainian resistance collapses after the capture of the major cities and not a grueling meatgrinder that attrits away the Russian army and the kit it has spent 10 years accumulating.
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Feb 26, 2022 13:46
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TulliusCicero posted:
I think everything makes a lot more sense if we assume that Russia genuinely thought they would not meet much resistance or that Putin is no longer rational.
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Feb 26, 2022 13:46
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EvilHawk posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497547030885019651 I mean paratroopers have been working so well already right?  We are watching the Russian State and Putin have a Nice Meltdown in real time, what a loving wierd timeline
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Feb 26, 2022 13:47
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Sekenr posted:I read up a bit on ban airplane exports part of EU sanctions and its a pretty big deal. 39 % of Russian civil airliners are Airbus. Sanction makes them unusable due to either canelled lease contracts or lack of spare parts which are also banned. If the US doesn't suck and supports this they will lose ANOTHER 36 % which are Boeing. In a month they will have almost no civil aviation. That's OK for Russia actually - by that time they'll need to downsize the civilian airfleet due to all the countries denying access to their airspaces. 
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Feb 26, 2022 13:47
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EvilHawk posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497547030885019651 Ukraine blew up a lot of bridges and there was a Russian bridge engineering unit that we saw destroyed. If Ukraine is getting direct intel from NATO then I'm sure the engineers are priority targets and Ukrainian forces will know right where they are. It may be that the Russians are having a hard time of getting bridges up.
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Feb 26, 2022 13:48
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Haramstufe Rot posted:Many people itt take the (already) speculative conclusions from Twitter and add their own stuff on top of them. We now literally have pages of post-mortem analyses of why Putin failed the invasion, after only two days of fighting. Sure, it's not going ideal but some posters itt have genuinely transcended into a fantasy world. nobody knows what's happening dude. there's fog of war and each side is using twitter for propaganda. we only know that what was supposed to be the second strongest army in the world is struggling to do things like completelydisable a much weaker countries anti-air systems and has its own tanks running out of gas, while unarmed ukrainians yell at them about how thye have a right to record, and thats hilarious. we can choose to post or not post and we choose to post.
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Feb 26, 2022 13:48
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steinrokkan posted:IMO the fundamental thing is that these fascists just aren't loyal at all.They are always looking out for opportunities to gently caress others over for their own short term gain, including their current allies. This goes for every country with insurgent fascist movements. Edit: quoted the wrong guy
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Feb 26, 2022 13:49
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mmkay posted:That's OK for Russia actually - by that time they'll need to downsize the civilian airfleet due to all the countries denying access to their airspaces. They'll just dust off the old Aeroflot manuals and keep the planes in the air with duct tape. We remember when our liners were crashing on a weekly basis, dammit, and by god we liked it!
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Feb 26, 2022 13:49
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Haramstufe Rot posted:Many people itt take the (already) speculative conclusions from Twitter and add their own stuff on top of them. We now literally have pages of post-mortem analyses of why Putin failed the invasion, after only two days of fighting. Sure, it's not going ideal but some posters itt have genuinely transcended into a fantasy world.
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Feb 26, 2022 13:49
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Trump posted:If anyone is curious about what the TOS-1 artillery the Russians are bringing is capable of: Powerful but a pretty impractical weapon. Range is only like 4 miles
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Feb 26, 2022 13:49
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cgeq posted:I always wonder how fascists feel when someone they support, like Putin, talks about how evil nazis are. Like, do they just nod along and go "oh ya, I hate "nazis" too!" in an ironic way or do they take it personally? Nazi as a pejorative means "bad", these people do not think they're bad, they are the protagonists and heroes of their own mythology. In their minds they're taking over to protect people from themselves and controlling them for the greater good, like a stern parent. They'll endlessly shift rhetorical focus and fabricate context to maintain that idea. The fact that their ideals are often contradictory doesn't matter as long as they're the ones in control.
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Feb 26, 2022 13:49
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Has anyone seen caro?Rust Martialis posted:Someone mentioned Putin has a puffy face... any chance he's on steroids for something? I know it makes you swell up. I don’t want to speculate, but that’s what it looks like to me. There’s a million reasons he could be on steroid therapy. And I don’t mean anabolic; I mean like prednisone or solumedrol. Someone mentioned Botox, and while that may be true Botox doesn’t make you puffy. It just kinda makes you flat and expressionless. Also you stop sweating. ronya posted:unless one thinks it's just fine for CNN to be livetweeting exactly what materiel is moving to the front because ha ha what are the chances of that being necessary? Geraldo Rivera nearly lost his career for drawing a line in sand
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Feb 26, 2022 13:50
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raverrn posted:https://twitter.com/RihoTerras/status/1497537193346220038?t=Wa-4YVEhX9Krs3e5TldzEg&s=19
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Feb 26, 2022 13:50
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Haramstufe Rot posted:Many people itt take the (already) speculative conclusions from Twitter and add their own stuff on top of them. We now literally have pages of post-mortem analyses of why Putin failed the invasion, after only two days of fighting. Sure, it's not going ideal but some posters itt have genuinely transcended into a fantasy world It's certainly overfitting the data to draw firm conclusions from the info we have, but it's notable that there isn't much of an alternative narrative. This despite living in an age when propaganda is easy to create and spread. So yeah, "thread consensus" is still firmly in #IWantToBelieve territory. But I'll take it.
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Feb 26, 2022 13:51
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Alchenar posted:I think it's nonsense mixed with things that are probably true to try and make it sound believable. i think there is the good point that war is ferociously expensive. Putin's chosen now to invade in part because he's been saving up cash reserves for 8 years and because oil prices have gone up. Sanctions are going to take their toll on the Russian economy and that makes it harder to finance the war machine. That Russians are really surprised they're encountering resistance is the one thing every single analyst agrees on.
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Feb 26, 2022 13:53
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coelomate posted:It's certainly overfitting the data to draw firm conclusions from the info we have, but it's notable that there isn't much of an alternative narrative. This despite living in an age when propaganda is easy to create and spread. I mean we've said it a million times, but there's a big difference between Russia's internal and external propaganda. Internally Russian media just isn't talking about the war. Externally they flood us with misinformation but the aim is to slow down and disrupt our decision making, not actually persuade us of some alternative reality. One of the likely reasons we aren't seeing anything is because Russia is just past the point where it thinks it has anything of value to get from talking to English speaking audiences.
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Feb 26, 2022 13:55
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EvilHawk posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497547030885019651 To even get them there would mean they'd have to cross 200km of unsecured terrain, at minimum, and their armor is beginning to run out of fuel because their logistics train is stretched to thin and getting ambushed. All they're doing is gifting armor vehicles to the Ukrainians at this point. I don't see how these paratrooper or air assaults are going to work, either, considering we just seen three of them fail consecutively. Young Freud fucked around with this message at 14:00 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 13:55
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Charlz Guybon posted:Why should I trust this guy? I've no idea, but in 4/7 he makes a falsiable claim, if Ukraine's still fighting next sunday we'll see if there's any merit to that at least.
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Feb 26, 2022 13:55
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coelomate posted:It's certainly overfitting the data to draw firm conclusions from the info we have, but it's notable that there isn't much of an alternative narrative. This despite living in an age when propaganda is easy to create and spread. Is that true though? I don't speak Russian or have a Vkontakte account or whatever, so I don't know what level of propaganda is being pushed on the domestic audience, and it seems unsurprising that the Western MLM and social medias would be pushing the NATO/Ukraine-aligned narrative. (For the avoidance of doubt, I would also like to be hopeful, but I think it's way too early to say much)
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Feb 26, 2022 13:56
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Young Freud posted:To even get them there would mean they'd have to cross 200km of unsecured terrain and their armor is beginning to run out of fuel because their logistics train is stretched to thin and getting ambushed. All they're doing is gifting armor vehicles to the Ukrainians at this point. Holy poo poo I haven't even thought of that Ukraine can just take the out of fuel vehicles/ armor for themselves, hell they probably have similar enough parts on hand from their own stockpile to repair
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Feb 26, 2022 13:57
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Failed Imagineer posted:I don't know what level of propaganda is being pushed on the domestic audience There's lots of it and it's non-stop. On top of that, there's an explicit order from Roskomnadzor (the IT and media watchdog) that literally prohibits media from using any sources except the Russian governmental sources for information
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Feb 26, 2022 13:58
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TulliusCicero posted:Holy poo poo I haven't even thought of that At some point russia is gonna have to make a tough decision between pumping gas through Ukraine or stopping Ukrainians from appropriating it. Edit* burned out armor could be the Russians abandoning things they don’t have fuel for. FizFashizzle fucked around with this message at 14:02 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 13:59
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497553380616683527 Is this significant?
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Feb 26, 2022 14:00
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A claim: https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497554029370650628 https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497553967684849669 (one can certainly buy the notion that the Kremlin was briefly entertaining the hope that Kyiv would fold as apparently forecasted) That might explain the observed movements.
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Feb 26, 2022 14:02
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pippy posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497553380616683527 Is blockading naval ports significant? I’d say so, especially with recent pledges of money, humanitarian aid and weapons.
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Feb 26, 2022 14:03
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pippy posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497553380616683527 Probably want to cut foreign supplies to Ukraine by sea
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Feb 26, 2022 14:03
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Russia can win the invasion with sheer numbers, probably, but RUSSIA STRONK is a joke and they're underperforming their numbers and the ad copy for their weapon export industry. As per loving usual. And then what? Winning the invasion is the tip of the iceberg, and if Ukranians want to fight and keep being given free Stingers and Javelins via Poland like they're candy on Halloween then it could be an infinite bloodbath for Russia. E: I think for this whole thing to have really worked in Russia's favor they had to instantly decapitate the Ukranian government and military command and make resistance feel pointless. So far the opposite has happened. sean10mm fucked around with this message at 14:07 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 14:04
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:nobody knows what's happening dude. there's fog of war and each side is using twitter for propaganda. we only know that what was supposed to be the second strongest army in the world is struggling to do things like completelydisable a much weaker countries anti-air systems and has its own tanks running out of gas, while unarmed ukrainians yell at them about how thye have a right to record, and thats hilarious. we can choose to post or not post and we choose to post. Slugworth posted:I think posts like yours are helpful to keep people grounded, but do I find it really weird that people look for ways to be hopeful? Not even a little bit. No of course, by all means! Maybe I should have said I just find it... interesting. We have seen, I think two (2) tanks without fuel in a video. And we talk like this: Young Freud posted:[...] their armor is beginning to run out of fuel because their logistics train is stretched to thin and getting ambushed. All they're doing is gifting armor vehicles to the Ukrainians at this point.
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Feb 26, 2022 14:05
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raverrn posted:https://twitter.com/RihoTerras/status/1497537193346220038?t=Wa-4YVEhX9Krs3e5TldzEg&s=19 Eh, how on earth would a Ukrainian officer have inside baseball on Putin's secret deliberations?
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Feb 26, 2022 14:05
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Mokotow posted:Hello friends, I would like to end this day by giving you a summary of what you all achieved [...] You're a hero man, great work.
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Feb 26, 2022 14:06
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A thought: Zelensky continually playing down US forewarnings of the attack did render the attack a massive public shock and unifying sentiment behind resistance, rather than letting the country stew in months of resentment over being caught between major powers plus, pro-Russian Ukrainians predicting nothing for months would feel betrayed after the fact
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Feb 26, 2022 14:07
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cgeq posted:I always wonder how fascists feel when someone they support, like Putin, talks about how evil nazis are. Like, do they just nod along and go "oh ya, I hate "nazis" too!" in an ironic way or do they take it personally? Words mean nothing to fascists Sartre, the anti semite, etc
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Feb 26, 2022 14:07
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I know it is a minor thing in comparison with what is happening to actual Ukrainians on the ground, but I have to imagine this must be very validating for Western intelligence. They clearly had no problem sniffing out and broadcasting what Putin was going to do in the lead up, and I have to imagine some of the early successes from Ukraine are likely due to complete intelligence overmatch. From what I understand it is basically a big flat area where satellites and who knows what else can see and pick up everything. I mean, I want to say yea this is day 3 and there is a huge fog of war, and we are all just Twitter experts but it is really hard to reconcile the idea of Russia as a threat to the West (outside of Nukes) after 30+ years of being told they were a boogeyman that could unleash havoc via EW/Cyber/conventional warfare at any moment, with what we are kinda seeing now. Almost as if we’ve (Americans) have been lied to? 
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Feb 26, 2022 14:08
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TulliusCicero posted:Holy poo poo I haven't even thought of that Yeah, you're supposed to scuttle that poo poo (at least in the U.S. and NATO) if you have to abandon it in the field, either by cooking off the ammo, using thermite grenades to destroy functional components, or calling an airstrike; and we're seeing intact but exhausted vehicles with unused munitions, code books, operations plans, etc. just laying around in the open. Either this is from a lack of training and discipline or straight-up desertion.
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Feb 26, 2022 14:08
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Haramstufe Rot posted:Am I the only one who finds this really weird? i think at least part of it is the result of russia absolutely failing at the whole "information warfare" thing i mentioned earlier - plus, it's a really clear-cut narrative that doesn't really need much (if anything, really) to cut through. with putin deciding for some reason to diligently play the role of exactly the kind of villain a lot of people have been saying he is for the last 20+ years. which is one of the reasons why this whole thing is immensely stupid if you ask me. what do i know though, i'm not a top russian official all that said, it does feel like it's blood in the water and all the sharks are out - the whole situation is a tremendous (and very timely) gift for nato, and and for the unity of the western world in general. they now have an actual, honest to god Enemy to focus on i'm incredibly sad for all the poor souls on both sides of the conflict currently engaged in this entirely unnecessary fratricide (not to mention all the deaths and the suffering this is causing to civilians) except for the azov and kadyrov's brigades - those guys can all kill each other to the last man, who then should commit seppuku, as far as i'm concerned. i'm also kinda worried about what sort of bullshit all this might unleash on the russian minorities in the baltics  (hopefully nothing, but, you know)
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Feb 26, 2022 14:08
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Sekenr posted:I read up a bit on ban airplane exports part of EU sanctions and its a pretty big deal. 39 % of Russian civil airliners are Airbus. Sanction makes them unusable due to either canelled lease contracts or lack of spare parts which are also banned. If the US doesn't suck and supports this they will lose ANOTHER 36 % which are Boeing. In a month they will have almost no civil aviation. Planes are bad, but not the end of the world. To me, the most significant sanction may be the semiconductor export ban. That doesn't shut down just aviation, that shuts down multiple industries - including their military industrial complex. It's also one that could last a long time, because any time Russia complains, the response can just be "Last time we let you have ICs you invaded Ukraine. Nope, you're still in time out." raverrn posted:https://twitter.com/RihoTerras/status/1497537193346220038?t=Wa-4YVEhX9Krs3e5TldzEg&s=19 2/7 and 3/7 are easily believable. Complex munitions are expensive to manufacture and maintain, and basically no country in the world (including the US) maintains large enough stockpiles of them. Even during the GWoT the US ran exceedingly low on a number of munitions. Even maintenance can be a killer - keeping up an operations tempo for an active aerial theater is brutal on modern planes in particular. For a country like Russia that's been doing a bare minimum of even training for years now, I can't imagine they have warehouses full of spare parts. I don't believe the rest of this, personally - I can believe this guy believes it, and he was possibly told this by someone he trusts. But it just reads too much like propoganda.
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re: lack of alternative narrative - Russia wouldn’t be the only source of one. We have satellites and cell phones and embedded journalists, streamers, etc. You can’t take every statement from Ukraine about damage they’ve inflicted etc. at face value, and the morale tweets obviously can’t stop tanks or missiles on their own. But just holding out this long, and continuing to receive international support, is a hell of a feat.
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Feb 26, 2022 14:09
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