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If your an ambitious general who wants to take over Russia now is probably the time.
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Feb 26, 2022 15:08
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Cythereal posted:I'm guessing this has to do with a Russian rocket hitting a Turkish-flagged ship in the Black Sea yesterday (in addition to the Japanese and Moldovan ships). Plus it's kinda starting to look like there's blood in the water
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Feb 26, 2022 15:09
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Holy poo poo  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits That's even bigger than cutting off Russia from SWIFT - just one giant gently caress you to Russia's eternal quest for warm water ports, particularly with them potentially attempting to grab Odesa and the other remaining Ukrainian ports. I'm sure NATO is having some extra emergency discussions now that Erdogan has thrown that gauntlet down.
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Feb 26, 2022 15:13
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Re: Alpha Group assassination plot. This might have been what the US was alluding to earlier. Here's a half-serious Tom Clancy question: would the US take it upon itself to neutralize the threat through covert means? I've gotta imagine there's an enormous number of Ground Branch assets there right now. psydude fucked around with this message at 15:18 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 15:15
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Terrifying Effigies posted:Holy poo poo Erdogan (well, Turkey) will have been part of the Art IV discussions. This probably isn't a surprise to the Western powers and wouldn't have been a snap decision. davecrazy posted:If you're an ambitious general who wants to take over Russia now is probably the time. Thanks, no, I'd rather a Russian colour revolution. IPCRESS fucked around with this message at 15:25 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 15:19
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Terrifying Effigies posted:Pretty good commentary on how long standing Russian military flaws are manifesting - a couple main ones being: If this is at all accurate, it's starting to look like this could be a near repeat of what happened to Russia in WW1.
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Feb 26, 2022 15:22
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Tannenberg 3.0 when
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Feb 26, 2022 15:28
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davecrazy posted:If your an ambitious general who wants to take over Russia now is probably the time. Whose the zukhov of 2022? Let’s get that guy
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Feb 26, 2022 15:29
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Hi guys, civilian here, got a question about something and I hope this is OK to ask here. There's this guy on C-SPAM posting up a bunch of documents about Russian logistics, but he's not explaining them much and I'm getting a slight headache trying to make sense of them. Can anyone break down what this is all saying in simple dummy terms, and what implications it might have, if any, for Russian forces in Ukraine? Also is any of this even relevant in wartime, given that I assume it's describing best-case "everything goes as planned" logistics? Frosted Flake posted:Oh - the Russian Logistics thing is cope, according to the latest full length assessment circulating in NATO: Frosted Flake posted:They tried using contractors because they believed the Western Neoliberal way was more efficient, realizes it was bullshit, and figured it out Frosted Flake posted:Their forward troops get fresh bread twice a day, and shower and laundry as soon as there is a significant pause. Frosted Flake posted:
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Feb 26, 2022 15:32
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The response from leftist organizations during this has been utterly absurd. How do they retain any credibility? quote:Following months of increased tensions and a sensationalist Western media blitz drumming up conflict in the Donbas, the US government is responding to the situation in Ukraine through the familiar guise of threats of sweeping sanctions, provision of military aid, and increased military deployment to the region. The Democratic Socialists of America International Committee (DSA IC) opposes this ongoing US brinkmanship, which only further escalates the crisis, and reaffirms our previous statement saying no to NATO and its imperialist expansionism and disastrous interventions across the world. https://international.dsausa.org/statements/no-war-with-russia/
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Feb 26, 2022 15:34
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Tiny Timbs posted:The response from leftist organizations during this has been utterly absurd. How do they retain any credibility? it's glenn greenwald brain. they only know how to support anti-US positions, regardless of any other facts
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Feb 26, 2022 15:37
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psydude posted:Re: Alpha Group assassination plot. This might have been what the US was alluding to earlier. I'm no expert, but I read a LOT of books, both from the military side and the intel world, particularly from memiors of CIA guys and gals. I also listen to podcasts that have a lot of former CIA and / or SOF people. Spycast, The Team House, are both excellent podcasts to listen to. Suffice it to say I have zero experience in the IC or military, so I may be waay off. Here's what I think. I'd say its a good bet that we have Paramilitary Operations Officers on the ground helping Ukraine. Operating under Title 50, they can conduct deniable covert action like that. The DOD operates under Title 10, which doesn't cover covert action / deniable ops (though I'm sure the line has been crossed plenty of times during the last 20 years). Unless the CIA "sheep dips" active duty SOF, there are at least supposed to be limits on what the military can do. There's 20 years of precedent for the CIA taking active duty guys and putting them under their authority and control. If they are indeed there, the PMOOs would likely have ground branch guys there to protect them. I think it might be a bit too risky for the DOD to have sent in any SOF to directly support the Ukrainians. The only Tier 1 unit I could see being inside Ukraine is ISA / Gray Fox / TFO guys collecting information and SIGINT to pass along to the UA. I'd also bet my life savings that the NSA, CIA, and NGA are watching every move the Russians make via spy satellites, analyzing all of their equipment, structure, tactics, etc. There has to be an enormous amount of all the INTs (SIGINT, MASINT, GEOINT, ETC) that'll take a long time to analyze. Keep in mind I don't know poo poo about gently caress and I'm going on hour 10 of 16 hours of work Bored As Fuck fucked around with this message at 15:53 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 15:37
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Bored As gently caress posted:I'm no expert, but I read a LOT of books, both from the military side and the intel world, particularly from memiors of CIA guys and gals. I also listen to podcasts that have a lot of former CIA and / or SOF people. Spycast, The Team House, are both excellent podcasts to listen to. Suffice it to say I have zero experience in the IC or military, so I may be waay off. if anyone thinks the US doesn't have some assets on the ground pulling strings then they have no clue where they are in the spacetime continuum
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Feb 26, 2022 15:40
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Tomn posted:Hi guys, civilian here, got a question about something and I hope this is OK to ask here. I don't feel like wading into that thread, so I'm missing the context around what he's saying. Sustaining a mechanized force advancing into contested territory is difficult even without having to worry about professional soldiers ambushing your logistics convoys with Javelins. There's literal videos of Russian vehicles running out of gas, and plenty more of supply convoys burned out on the side of the road. During the war games they were running before, I'm sure they had hot chow, but no Army is gonna take a break to bake bread in-between fighting during active combat operations.
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Feb 26, 2022 15:45
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Getting a hearty  at fresh bread 2x/day, and showers/laundry “whenever there’s a significant pause”. Where the hell would that water even come from?
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Feb 26, 2022 15:47
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Is C-SPAM so far left that they’ve boomeranged around to supporting a right wing fascist dictator doing an illegal invasion?
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Feb 26, 2022 15:49
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Tomn posted:Hi guys, civilian here, got a question about something and I hope this is OK to ask here. Facts "on the ground" are going to be sparse and both sides will be slinging poo poo to support their cause. Russia hasn't taken their objectives and fighting is getting bogged down where they don't want it to be. Specifics about why this is are going to take time to be confirmed. Someone that is not a Russian military officer harping on about how great and perfect their logistics are and "really they get a hot shower every day!" is talking directly out of their rear end after swallowing and digesting the above propaganda.
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Feb 26, 2022 15:50
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https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1497565942137638914?t=1aSMgT7GHbKexbiK8Giucg&s=19 Imagine, as a parent, having to call the country you're at war with to find out if your child is still alive.
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Feb 26, 2022 15:52
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Icon Of Sin posted:Getting a hearty Each BTG has a Divining Rod Team (uniformed, not a part of the MIC of course) to locate clean, fluoride free spring water.
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Feb 26, 2022 15:52
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Tomn posted:Hi guys, civilian here, got a question about something and I hope this is OK to ask here. Funny he should call it "cope". He's just spamming a pre-war assessment in lieu of actual arguments. "Who are you going to believe, your lying eyes, or this document that assumed the reforms worked".
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Feb 26, 2022 15:53
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davecrazy posted:Is C-SPAM so far left that they’ve boomeranged around to supporting a right wing fascist dictator doing an illegal invasion?
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Feb 26, 2022 15:55
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Acebuckeye13 posted:https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1497565942137638914?t=1aSMgT7GHbKexbiK8Giucg&s=19
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Feb 26, 2022 15:56
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Those weren’t mobile crematoriums they were battalion tactical bread makers.
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Feb 26, 2022 15:57
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Cythereal posted:I'm guessing this has to do with a Russian rocket hitting a Turkish-flagged ship in the Black Sea yesterday (in addition to the Japanese and Moldovan ships). I must differ. I don't think Erdogan gives a rat's rear end about that cargo ship. I see 2 possibilities to explain the attack on neutral cargo ships: - lol, launch the missiles from 50km away, let them lock on something, lmao, no fucks given, missile quota fulfilled - target neutral ships (AIS info, satellite and radar) and give them a bloody nose to immediately stop all commercial ship traffic to Ukraine I obviously believe it's #2: it's a cheap way to cut off resupply on that route. No need to patrol and stop ships one by one, the insurers will do it for you.
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Feb 26, 2022 15:59
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davecrazy posted:Is C-SPAM so far left that they’ve boomeranged around to supporting a right wing fascist dictator doing an illegal invasion? Flap the wings hard enough and the feathers on the fringes can touch each other on occasion.
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Feb 26, 2022 16:01
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Here's a really good podcast by a top CIA guy on his book The Spymaster's Prism, about Putin, and how he thinks. It's a really good book. https://open.spotify.com/episode/0PvUi7jUMw58QfuWE70ABP?si=6MB235hPSCC_9Fp1L0wr_Q&utm_source=copy-link
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Feb 26, 2022 16:03
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davecrazy posted:Is C-SPAM so far left that they’ve boomeranged around to supporting a right wing fascist dictator doing an illegal invasion? There's always been a contingent on the far left that not only considers the US and western Europe to be vile colonizers (a defensible position) but also considers them to be the world's only colonizers and everyone else is just rightfully doing what they can to ward off the evil capitalist colonialists who exist only in the West.
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Feb 26, 2022 16:07
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Tomn posted:Hi guys, civilian here, got a question about something and I hope this is OK to ask here. Lol thats one of the New Look reform papers. It's not worth debating that motherfucker since he doesn't understand what he's reading and doesn't care
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Feb 26, 2022 16:07
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Icon Of Sin posted:Getting a hearty So anecdotally when we would conduct a 35 day exercise in Canada as Brits we'd have a shower unit brought out maybe once but that usually coincided in a change from live firing to blank TES exercise halfway through. Otherwise it'd be flannel washes most days, that's on tanks by the way.
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Feb 26, 2022 16:07
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psydude posted:I don't feel like wading into that thread, so I'm missing the context around what he's saying. I don't really have the full context myself, just dipped in for a bit. The bit that confused me was that as far as I could tell nothing in the document was specifically supporting or refuting anything, it's just describing the Russian logistical system and confirming they had one, which I assumed would be a given. I came in here to see if there was anything about their logistics as described that might be potentially beneficial or harmful to operations in the Ukraine, since I can't really parse what this all comes down to. Did notice three things, though, dunno if they're significant or not: 1) The articles mention that the Russians rely heavily on rail logistics. My understanding is that they've not really captured any of the major cities on the road to Kyiv yet, right? They've just been bypassing them? Would that mean that presumably they also haven't captured rail hubs and would be relying entirely on trucks near Kyiv? 2) They mention near the end that a MTO battalion's operating area is about 80 km2. Given the distances between the Belarusian border and Kyiv, would this mean that Russian troops near Kyiv are likely to be near the edge of their logistical range, or am I misunderstanding something? 3) It feels from what I can pick up like Russian logistical strategy is pretty defensive overall and is predicated on their being able to benefit from prepared depots at home? Unless I'm misunderstanding what a Military District is in Russian terms. davecrazy posted:Is C-SPAM so far left that they’ve boomeranged around to supporting a right wing fascist dictator doing an illegal invasion? Apparently yes. It would appear that the Ukraine is run by Western-backed Nazis and that this entire invasion was all the fault of NATO posturing forcing Putin's hand, and that the moral thing for Zelensky to do would be to immediately surrender and spare his people the pain and death of resistance. I don't think I'll be going back there any time soon really.
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Feb 26, 2022 16:08
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Stultus Maximus posted:There's always been a contingent on the far left that not only considers the US and western Europe to be vile colonizers (a defensible position) but also considers them to be the world's only colonizers and everyone else is just rightfully doing what they can to ward off the evil capitalist colonialists who exist only in the West. Supporting Xi and Putin should be a real "are we the baddies" moment for anyone with the remotest self-awareness
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Feb 26, 2022 16:09
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Always fun to remind yourself watching the Ukrainian president doing this best King Leonids impression out with his citizens and soldiers that Trump thought he could blackmail him over a 400million dollar arms deal.
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Feb 26, 2022 16:17
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If he wins this war I'm feeling p good about his reelection odds
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Feb 26, 2022 16:18
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aphid_licker posted:If he wins this war I'm feeling p good about his
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Feb 26, 2022 16:23
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Reading a 2016 analysis document about logistics probably doesn't make a whole ton of sense for understanding the battle as it rolls out. You might also read a US Army document about how important mental health and discipline are and then scratch your head about murders and suicides at Fort Bragg. If you read the section on the offense, you do get a sense of why some of these units are operating independently, getting cut off, but sometimes showing up places the Ukrainians did not expect them and were not prepared for them. It goes into a bit of detail about the idea of assuming risk on security, bypassing, etc to try to keep up tempo, initiative, and firepower. Whether it's a great idea or not can be looked at in post-mortem, but it will make the combat make a bit more sense, especially if coming from the perspective not of US mil large-scale ops, but instead stability ops (Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo, AFRICOM, etc).
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Feb 26, 2022 16:23
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Terrifying Effigies posted:Pretty good commentary on how long standing Russian military flaws are manifesting - a couple main ones being: "I love war! I know more about war...than the generals." - Also, holy gently caress if we get pissed off Russian equivalents of like an E3 busting caps in officers because they were sold a bill of goods.
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Feb 26, 2022 16:28
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Latest out of the pentagon today (via the Guardian): TLDR: Maybe Russia should have taken the Napoleonic Ratios more seriously. https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497590265737097217 https://twitter.com/beverstine/status/1497582099443986438 https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1497588560832208898 https://twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/1497587542002216962
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Feb 26, 2022 16:31
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davecrazy posted:Is C-SPAM so far left that they’ve boomeranged around to supporting a right wing fascist dictator doing an illegal invasion? It turns out those arrows on the political compass test are actually a circle.
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Feb 26, 2022 16:34
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davecrazy posted:Always fun to remind yourself watching the Ukrainian president doing this best King Leonids impression out with his citizens and soldiers that Trump thought he could blackmail him over a 400million dollar arms deal. And, as a reminder, Trump refused to walk a quarter mile for a photo op and had to wait for his golf cart.
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Feb 26, 2022 16:35
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psydude posted:Latest out of the pentagon today (via the Guardian): Collectively points toward saying this is going worse for Russia than they planned, but is not at all the same as saying they lost.
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Feb 26, 2022 16:36
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