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The fact they are still able to contest their airspace against a superpower is really something.
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Feb 26, 2022 16:37
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Tomn posted:Hi guys, civilian here, got a question about something and I hope this is OK to ask here. At least one way to read it: - Soviet Union had a large, multi-organizational logistics organization focused on mobilizing the entire economy towards supporting military operations. The Russian Federation understandably downscaled and consolidated after the Cold War since they're no longer trying to do Seven Days to the Rhine against NATO. - The Russians briefly attempted to outsource their battlefield maintenance to contractors (e.g. like how Lockheed or Halliburton might have support personnel in Iraq or Afghanistan to support US equipment in the field). Didn't work out, so Russia switched to having military personnel provide all maintenance & logistics in the field while contractors provide support at the far rear depot level. - In order to address the shortcomings of an all conscript army, Russia has gone to a 'contract based' approach to sign up volunteer troops for a specific length of time based on 'contracts', somewhat similar to how the US has military personnel sign on for specific tours of duty. Idea is it allows for recruitment and retention of more skilled and motivated troops than you'd get through conscription. However, the report points out that most of these contract troops are funneled towards 'trigger puller' or combat roles. This means the 'military personnel provide all maintenance & logistics in the field' mentioned earlier is still relying more on conscripts while at the same time Russia is acquiring more high tech weapons systems which require more complex logistics to operate. - Russia historically and currently relies primarily on their railroad network for logistics, and have a dedicated military branch to maintaining the railways. This works pretty well to move units and supplies around inside of Russia, but necessarily does not extend outside of Russia's borders. - When going on the offensive, Russia's set up a push system of logistics that just funnels material from the top down to the individual units. This is a simpler approach than trying to have units in combat request specific replacements and get them delivered, and leverages the fact that Russia has a ton of vehicles and equipment sitting in armories already. The logistics pipeline is supposed to just keep pushing out bullets, fuel, new tanks, etc with adjustments made for how hard the fighting is on a particular axis. This also explains why the Russian army might just leave disabled vehicles on the side of the road (for the time being) rather than bother fixing or recovering them during combat ops - there's an almost endless supply of tanks and APCs back at the depot so just keep sending more. The big caveat is whether the rail network can deliver the logistics from the rear depots, and in the case of offensive operations that there's enough trucks etc to carry it all out past the end of the railroad on the Russian border to where the fighting is happening. Right now this is running into a ton of issues in real time as Russia tries to push over the border into Ukraine, but in the long run it's possible things settle out a bit if/when the front line settles down and Russian logistics can catch up and disentangle itself. That's assuming Russia can politically and diplomatically continue combat ops in Ukraine indefinitely. - There's additional details for how the individual battalion level combat units are supposed to receive and manage their resources based on Russian doctrine and organization. This is very much 'on paper' versus as-executed, and we're seeing the disconnects between the two in real time.
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Feb 26, 2022 16:38
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psydude posted:Latest out of the pentagon today (via the Guardian): this is insane
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Feb 26, 2022 16:39
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Sentinel posted:The fact they are still able to contest their airspace against a superpower is really something. Think I'm about ready to downgrade them to ex-Superpower
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Feb 26, 2022 16:40
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Cugel the Clever posted:Hey folks, please check events in your area and turn out to your local pro-Ukraine demonstration. You're not going to directly affect Putin's decision making, but the more this makes the news, the more likely your governments will pursue a more stringent response against Putin. I'm kinda assuming the reasoning behind that posting is people so conditioned to anti-US leftist-posting that they swing for the fences on every single thing and end up massively overshooting reality, and then just dying on that hill. There are some basic sentiments that I share with some of those arguments, but I somehow manage to not completely shut down my brain and go the extra three miles to arrive at "Putin actually good". Like: - the West is not without fault in the situation we're in, nevermind the situation the people of Ukraine are in, the full diplomatic "arsenal of tools" at the disposal of western powers could have been used anytime between 2014 and now to let Putin know, with no small certainty, that if he keeps going and stops playing "just the tip", he'll be hit where it hurts him most. His loving money. Alas, doing so would have hit Western nations where it hurts them most...their loving money, sooooo welp - the West has, indirectly and "almost directly", supported/funded NeoNazi movements in Ukraine leading up to and - in part - post-Euromaidan, and there are absolutely NeoNazi entities that exist which have profited from that support, namely the Azov regiment, Svoboda functionaries, Right Sector, etc. - calling for the civilian populace to take up arms against Russian forces is going to lead to even more civilian deaths and human suffering than is currently inevitable in the first place Those are absolutely valid points. But some-loving-how, those posters decide to throw out all reasonable rationale after those points and somehow end up at "This is all the West's/USA's fault, and Russia is AKSHUALLY the poor cornered animal in this situation, and is basically forced to invade Ukraine to cleanse it from Neonazis and protect itself from NATO's aggressive expansion", which is so incredibly broken-brained that I don't even know how to describe it. What they absolutely love to discard is the following: - the support/funding for Ukraine pre-/post-Euromaidan wasn't somehow targeted at Svoboda/Azov Regiment/Right sector, it was for the whole of Ukraine...with all its systemic problems and - unfortunately - included Neonazis. Svoboda doesn't even hold any relevant positions of political power anymore iirc, and even though Svoboda/Right Sector/ultra-nationalist representation in the populace is non-zero and the Azov Regiment still exists, this doesn't make Ukraine more Neonazi than any other country. Yeah, they have a really bad Neonazi issue, but they're not alone in that regard, even amongst the rest of European nations. Hell, America probably has more Neonazis per capita than Ukraine. Putin's argument of "ridding Ukraine of Nazis" is insufferably-stupid. He'd whack more Neonazis by occupying/liberating the German state of Saxony - the expansion of NATO does absolutely loving nothing to effectively threaten Russia. There is not a single loving NATO member state that has an interest in NATO actually causing war with Russia, let alone attacking Russia openly for any reason whatsoever. NATO is a shambling loving corpse of its former self and pretending that any state would be cool with a world war resulting from NATO actions is beyond comical. Sadly-enough, the most solid evidence to support that statement is that countries like money, and a world war would hurt their money. - calling for the civilian populace of a country to resist an illegal war of aggression is absolutely the right of a country, and it doesn't loving matter if the outcome hurts your (my) feelings tl;dr: The West is absolutely not without fault at the situation we're in, but pretending that the West forced Putin to do this is just incredibly far beyond words. I have no idea what type of media consumption can even convince a poster to arrive at that deduction outside of masturbating to Gravel Institute videos 24/7 /edit: Not trying to poo poo on the Gravel "Institute" too hard with that last line, they're absolutely much better than PragerU or whatever, but their content seems to me as occasionally excluding "the full picture", which ends up in somewhat incomplete/disingenuous content, but at least it's still not full-blown propaganda like PragerU bullshit Duzzy Funlop fucked around with this message at 16:49 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 16:40
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aphid_licker posted:Think I'm about ready to downgrade them to ex-Superpower Maybe a Pretty Good Power.
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Feb 26, 2022 16:43
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The thing I am wondering about now is: replacement. There is a LOT of Russian hardware littering the Ukranian countryside right now, and Russia looks like they will be living under severe economic sanctions for a decade or so, so....how does the Russian Army/Air Force afford to replace any of this poo poo? Like, is Russia actively degrading themselves from Superpower to Second Rate power in front of our eyes?
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Feb 26, 2022 16:46
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Latest assessment from UK intelligence: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1497592156738965509
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Feb 26, 2022 16:47
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Sentinel posted:The fact they are still able to contest their airspace against a superpower is really something. Having a lot of nuclear weapons doesn't make your country a superpower, it just makes you a country with a lot of nuclear weapons. Just a reminder that Russia's collective GDP is half that of California's. The true measure of a superpower is being able to reliably project its power internationally, and Russia's not doing too well on that front.
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Feb 26, 2022 16:51
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BUG JUG posted:The thing I am wondering about now is: replacement. There is a LOT of Russian hardware littering the Ukranian countryside right now, and Russia looks like they will be living under severe economic sanctions for a decade or so, so....how does the Russian Army/Air Force afford to replace any of this poo poo? Like, is Russia actively degrading themselves from Superpower to Second Rate power in front of our eyes? I've been wondering kinda the same thing these last few days. I keep thinking of their entire economy being the size of New York States. The worldwide response been pretty incredible and crippling in its own right. But with every launched Missile and destroyed vehicle ive seen im always mentally "Wait how much does that have to cost them?"
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Feb 26, 2022 16:51
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BUG JUG posted:The thing I am wondering about now is: replacement. There is a LOT of Russian hardware littering the Ukranian countryside right now, and Russia looks like they will be living under severe economic sanctions for a decade or so, so....how does the Russian Army/Air Force afford to replace any of this poo poo? Like, is Russia actively degrading themselves from Superpower to Second Rate power in front of our eyes? Russia has not been a superpower outside of their nuclear arsenal since the USSR collapsed. They have been a strong regional power with nukes. This conflict if anything may challenge that they are even a strong regional power, but it doesn't change the fact that they have a strong nuclear force. They have had no ability to project meaningful power outside their boarders for a long time.
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Feb 26, 2022 16:52
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BUG JUG posted:The thing I am wondering about now is: replacement. There is a LOT of Russian hardware littering the Ukranian countryside right now, and Russia looks like they will be living under severe economic sanctions for a decade or so, so....how does the Russian Army/Air Force afford to replace any of this poo poo? Like, is Russia actively degrading themselves from Superpower to Second Rate power in front of our eyes? My cynical answer is that Boeing and Lockheed shadow companies will see an opportunity here but that’s probably a bit too Clancy  to be a reality
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Feb 26, 2022 16:53
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BUG JUG posted:The thing I am wondering about now is: replacement. There is a LOT of Russian hardware littering the Ukranian countryside right now, and Russia looks like they will be living under severe economic sanctions for a decade or so, so....how does the Russian Army/Air Force afford to replace any of this poo poo? Like, is Russia actively degrading themselves from Superpower to Second Rate power in front of our eyes? This is still only a fraction of the crap that Russia actually has, but your point about sanctions is salient. Russia doesn't have its own semiconductor industry, and it relies heavily upon EU countries for basics like steel. With every major country sanctioning it (other than China, who doesn't give a poo poo about Russia and will want to avoid another ZTE fiasco), they're going to have to develop their own capacity. This will take years and billions of dollars, and will probably set them back substantially from both an R&D and O&M perspective. And that's before the likely sabotage of their MIC by US and allied offensive cyber operations. psydude fucked around with this message at 16:56 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 16:54
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I think it was already pointed out earlier, but yes, Russia has this stuff stacked deep in their reserves. Whether or not they can actually move fresh materiel to the front and quickly enough to replace losses is another question, and it's looking like the answer to that question is closer to "no" than to "yes."
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Feb 26, 2022 16:58
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psydude posted:This is still only a fraction of the crap that Russia actually has, but your point about sanctions is salient. Russia doesn't have its own semiconductor industry, and it relies heavily upon EU countries for basics like steel. With every major country sanctioning it (other than China, who doesn't give a poo poo about Russia and will want to avoid another ZTE fiasco), they're going to have to develop their own capacity. This will take years and billions of dollars, and will probably set them back substantially from both an R&D and O&M perspective. There's going to be a whole lot of pushback from the people and Duma with regards to replacing lost materiel, as well. My guess is that the bulk of military spending will be put into deterrence. I've always called it the Gopnik Gambit. That stereotypical tracksuited gangster lifting his jacket to show off the Desert Eagle tucked in the waistband before asking "we have problem?"
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Feb 26, 2022 16:58
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https://twitter.com/biz_ukraine_mag/status/1497601266716921870?s=21
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Feb 26, 2022 16:58
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The irony of Ukraine neo-Nazis is that they only gained the foothold they have through their ability to provide fighters against the Russian puppet president in Maidan and then as militia. Had Russia left Ukraine or engaged with it less like an imperial power they never would have gained influence.psydude posted:Turkey just cut Russian access to the Black Sea. Called it lmao now most of why Russia needs Ukraine is for nothing without the Black Sea. So far Iran is the only country I can think of that isn’t a puppet that hasn’t explicitly made a statement taken an action against Russia.
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Feb 26, 2022 16:59
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My friend played that clip of them last night after he'd heard about it. I had to tell him they were gone though...he hadnt heard about that part. 
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Feb 26, 2022 17:00
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psydude posted:This is still only a fraction of the crap that Russia actually has, but your point about sanctions is salient. Russia doesn't have its own semiconductor industry, and it relies heavily upon EU countries for basics like steel. With every major country sanctioning it (other than China, who doesn't give a poo poo about Russia and will want to avoid another ZTE fiasco), they're going to have to develop their own capacity. This will take years and billions of dollars, and will probably set them back substantially from both an R&D and O&M perspective. And that's before the likely sabotage of their MIC by US and allied offensive cyber operations. There's also some indications that India is willing to back Russia's adventures to some degree. https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1497162914586898475
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Feb 26, 2022 17:01
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mlmp08 posted:Collectively points toward saying this is going worse for Russia than they planned, but is not at all the same as saying they lost. Don't get me wrong with what I say below: I really hope Russia loses its unjustified and unjustifiable war of aggression, badly, and that the scale and extent of their losses trigger a near-universal, genuine and sustained appetite for representative democracy in Russia. That being said: It's day 3? Anyone saying Russia's lost the war at this point is being absurdly optimistic. We're looking at the Russian losses in this thread and delivering (rightful) congratulations to the Ukrainian people for the ferocity of their defence. But ultimately, if Putin's willing to make enough of his warm bodies cold, he'll achieve his aims. I'm not thinking Putin has any more love for the Russian soldier than Stalin did. How he handles the insurgency is another question, and most of the answers I see to that are just plain ugly.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:04
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I would ask why so many people are willing to die for Putin, but I’d be posting it in a forum full of War on Terror vets.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:05
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Naked Bear posted:I think it was already pointed out earlier, but yes, Russia has this stuff stacked deep in their reserves. Whether or not they can actually move fresh materiel to the front and quickly enough to replace losses is another question, and it's looking like the answer to that question is closer to "no" than to "yes." The one major exception being stuff like precision guided munitions. Russia has very limited reserves of high tech weapons like those, although to be fair most of NATO has similar shortcoming - see the UK and France blowing through their stocks in a few days of bombing Libya.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:06
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Cythereal posted:There's also some indications that India is willing to back Russia's adventures to some degree. Yeah, but they're not going to help Russia evade sanctions and risk having their industry crippled by the US. Part of me wonders about the degree to which some of these issues with Russian logistics and C4ISR have been cheerfully exacerbated by the folks at Ft. Meade.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:06
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Oops.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:08
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I think it’s fair to say Russia doesn’t have the logistical know how to push all the way through the entirety of Ukraine though I expect them to get well past Kyiv eventually.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:09
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boop the snoot posted:I would ask why so many people are willing to die for Putin, but I’d be posting it in a forum full of War on Terror vets.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:10
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aphid_licker posted:If he wins this war I'm feeling p good about his reelection odds It seems that Ukrainian leadership is just made up entirely of loving Chads. Also this seems bad for RU https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1497595587197386765?s=20&t=bOuaqsZD2BoHF9BB63I9eA Note some not fun prisoner photos downthread if you click through.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:12
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boop the snoot posted:I would ask why so many people are willing to die for Putin, but I’d be posting it in a forum full of War on Terror vets. If anything from random videos Russia troops are even less enthusiastic than most of us were.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:13
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boop the snoot posted:I would ask why so many people are willing to die for Putin, but I’d be posting it in a forum full of War on Terror vets. I'm sure on some level, we all felt like we were doing our part to kill Bin Laden with each portajohn dick we drew.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:13
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Most are probably looking for an excuse to spend 5 minutes out of Russia.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:14
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brains posted:this is insane This could be a part of their doctrine. Cold War era Sweden, for example, was prepared to use highway tunnels to store and launch fighters, expecting their actual airfields to be hit in any initial strike. Ukraine must have known of the Russian missile capacity abd they might have purposefully kept some units inactive through the first day.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:15
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boop the snoot posted:I would ask why so many people are willing to die for Putin, but I’d be posting it in a forum full of War on Terror vets. There was a post up thread suggesting that these soldiers aren’t exactly willing participants- that they were told they were doing military exercises near the border, then forced into signing a new contract acknowledging they were about to invade Ukraine.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:16
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pantslesswithwolves posted:There was a post up thread suggesting that these soldiers aren’t exactly willing participants- that they were told they were doing military exercises near the border, then forced into signing a new contract acknowledging they were about to invade Ukraine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkvDQZ4WHzY&t=66s I don't know why, but this is the first thing that comes to mind.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:18
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Ataxerxes posted:This could be a part of their doctrine. Cold War era Sweden, for example, was prepared to use highway tunnels to store and launch fighters, expecting their actual airfields to be hit in any initial strike. Ukraine must have known of the Russian missile capacity abd they might have purposefully kept some units inactive through the first day. I saw something about 12 hours into the invasion claiming that Ukraine was basically not going all out on anti-air / anti-tank stuff with what they had so they could start ripping up smaller forces as Russia began to extend. No idea if that's remotely true or not though or just wishful thinking / armchair bullshit analysis etc.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:20
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Ataxerxes posted:This could be a part of their doctrine. Cold War era Sweden, for example, was prepared to use highway tunnels to store and launch fighters, expecting their actual airfields to be hit in any initial strike. Ukraine must have known of the Russian missile capacity abd they might have purposefully kept some units inactive through the first day. it's less surprise over ukraine's ability to generate sorties and more about the world's 2nd largest air force's inability to establish air control days after a planned invasion. and then still doing airborne ops in hostile airspace. it's mind boggling. put another way- russia violated the INF treaty for this
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Feb 26, 2022 17:22
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brains posted:it's less surprise over ukraine's ability to generate sorties and more about the world's 2nd largest air force's inability to establish air control days after a planned invasion. and then still doing airborne ops in hostile airspace. it's mind boggling.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:22
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CNN says the US believes Putin has "50% of his total assembled power" in Ukraine as of now.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:26
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https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1497597844534042628?s=20&t=K-ygTtZgxKH_IltByJLSzQquote:A Saturday morning background briefing with a senior U.S. defense official about the war in Ukraine just concluded.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:26
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pantslesswithwolves posted:There was a post up thread suggesting that these soldiers aren’t exactly willing participants- that they were told they were doing military exercises near the border, then forced into signing a new contract acknowledging they were about to invade Ukraine. They did the surprise recontracting for Donbas as well iirc
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Feb 26, 2022 17:27
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https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1497570179026403329?s=20&t=NPS97K6QaJSRgiartcgkmg
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Feb 26, 2022 17:27
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