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ronya posted:Domestically Indians still feel very pro-Soviet/Russian, with China and Pakistan being the stalwart US allies. The prospect of a Rus-Pak-China compact is steadily applying pressure to shift this calculus, but half a century of cultural affiliation is slow to unwind Complicating this is that India buys a ton of their arms from Russia. With the very real prospect of the Russian arms industry getting effectively shut down for some period of time due to the sanctions that are happening, they have to take a very careful look at their defensive posture for the next couple years. There's no good way forward on this for them.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:12
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Gripweed posted:The problem is, the longer this goes on the greater the pressure to do something will be on Western governments. As that pressure mounts, leaders are going to start making calculations about what they could do that isn't declaring war but is something and might make Putin back down. Several NATO countries have openly adopted an aid policy that's effectively 'if you want to use this to kill Russians, you can have it for free'. It's been rapidly normalised but if you stop and think about it that's an incredibly hostile stance.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:13
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Gripweed posted:I don't know what the administrative process would be, but at least one congressperson is calling for it Yeah Kinzinger is a lame duck and a GOP pariah. He has absolutely zero clout. He gets to talk on TV a lot because he's a Republican who voted for Trump's second impeachment.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:13
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ZombieLenin posted:First of all, it is not going to happen; and second of all, that's a pretty reckless assumption. Escalate to deescalate doesn't seem far fetched. I'd imagine striking NATO airbases would be first on the table if NATO decided to declare war. Once they've been destroyed the question would be does NATO respond in kind, killing about 66% of its population in the process, or "deescalate" by conceeding. This is all thoroughly clancy chat though, which is why discussion of NATO fighting Russian forces is not realistic. Saying the Russian would fight a war against NATO if NATO fought a war with Russia isn't reckless, its the only safe assumption.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:13
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https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1497590912146358275 Moving to back up a siege of Kyiv?
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Feb 26, 2022 17:14
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Herstory Begins Now posted:This is the list btw I guess it's a noble effort, but I've seen more destroyed AFV/IFV in one twitter clip then whats documented here.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:14
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FishBulbia posted:Escalate to deescalate doesn't seem far fetched. If Russia does a nuclear strike the NATO response will be in the air before the Russian missiles explode.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:16
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ronya posted:https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1497590912146358275 Looks like they were planned to be used to occupy western Ukraine, but now they're needed back east.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:16
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ronya posted:https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1497590912146358275 thats the wrong direction for that isnt it? are they going to try for a wider encirclement?
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Feb 26, 2022 17:16
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https://www.ft.com/content/b6712657-d6b7-4d56-95f7-849a653d5a66FT posted:Wheat and other grain prices have soared since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But those prices are not an adequate picture of the problems with losing Ukrainian grain exports.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:17
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punishedkissinger posted:thats the wrong direction for that isnt it? are they going to try for a wider encirclement? Cut off supplies from the west maybe?
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Feb 26, 2022 17:18
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Alchenar posted:Several NATO countries have openly adopted an aid policy that's effectively 'if you want to use this to kill Russians, you can have it for free'. What's remarkable is that it's so overt. And it's drawing new leadership lines in Europe.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:19
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Gripweed posted:If Russia does a nuclear strike the NATO response will be in the air before the Russian missiles explode. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia%E2%80%99s-crazy-nuclear-war-strategy-escalationto-de-escalate-180680 The phrase “escalate to de-escalate” first surfaced in the summer of 2015. As noted by Kevin Ryan, associate fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center, the phrase originated in American—rather than Russian—defense discourse. The core idea behind “escalate to de-escalate” is, simply, that Russia is now willing to engage in a limited nuclear war in order to win—that is, end—a conventional conflict. Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work and the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. James Winnefeld, invoked “escalate to de-escalate” during a testimony to the House Committee on Armed Services: “Russian military doctrine includes what some have called an ‘escalate to deescalate’ strategy—a strategy that purportedly seeks to deescalate a conventional conflict through coercive threats, including limited nuclear use. We think that this label is dangerously misleading. Anyone who thinks they can control escalation through the use of nuclear weapons is literally playing with fire. Escalation is escalation, and nuclear use would be the ultimate escalation.” “Escalate to de-escalate” surged in popularity during the Trump years, penetrating key U.S. defense documents. “Moscow threatens and exercises [i.e., rehearses] limited nuclear first use, suggesting a mistaken expectation that coercive nuclear threats or limited first use could paralyze the United States and NATO and thereby end a conflict on terms favorable to Russia,” reads the Defense Department’s 2018 Nuclear Posture Review. “Some in the United States refer to this as Russia’s ‘escalate to deescalate’ doctrine.” Analysts have noted that the concept of using low-yield nuclear weapons to influence the course of a conventional conflict is not new, neither to Russia nor the US. A 2019 Defense Department guidance on Nuclear Operations discusses the possibility of limited nuclear war: “Employment of nuclear weapons can radically alter or accelerate the course of a campaign. A nuclear weapon could be brought into the campaign as a result of perceived failure in a conventional campaign, potential loss of control or regime, or to escalate the conflict to sue for peace on more favorable terms.”
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Feb 26, 2022 17:20
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Alchenar posted:Several NATO countries have openly adopted an aid policy that's effectively 'if you want to use this to kill Russians, you can have it for free'. This is one of my big worries, in America and Europe war has been so detached from democracy, people don't think about it. We've created a state of constant war that is out of sight and out of mind. All of the military options we've come to rely on assume that we're dealing with a country that can in no serious way threaten us or respond proportionately to what we do to them. Now we're up against a country that can hit back. So what the gently caress do we do? All of the buttons we have to press just escalate the situation.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:21
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punishedkissinger posted:thats the wrong direction for that isnt it? are they going to try for a wider encirclement? Kyiv is south from the eastern part of Belarus. In this map screenshot I put the marker on the most Eastern mentioned town in that tweet. 
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Feb 26, 2022 17:22
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MadJackal posted:Or maybe America’s entire military tech and intelligence structure was built to counter conventional mass Soviet armor groups, and the scenario of smaller ground forces with advanced weaponry and near-perfect intel are faring well. I remember reading a lovely tom clancy book (during my 13-year old rainbow six tacticool operator phase, don't judge me  ) called red storm rising about a Nato vs USSR conflict in the late 80s, and I remember thinking it was stupid because the soviet tactics were basically lining up columns of tanks that just kept getting shredded and splitting their forces thin enough with paradrops that nato just kept curbstomping them.Smug teenager me was like, "thats dumb. No army would be that dumb". In TYooL 2022 I'm wrong I guess.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:22
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Before enforcing a no fly zone any responsible Western leader should at least take the time to distribute bibles and lethal doses of barbiturates to all civilians. I don't want to hear about such poo poo anymore while we have an actual war on
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Feb 26, 2022 17:22
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Samopsa posted:Kyiv is south from the eastern part of Belarus. oh shoot my brain saw east->west
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Feb 26, 2022 17:23
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Alchenar posted:Several NATO countries have openly adopted an aid policy that's effectively 'if you want to use this to kill Russians, you can have it for free'. I've said it in this thread before, but I think we will find NATO helped Ukraine actively during the invasion, with intel and I imagine, boots on the ground in C&C positions. Look at flightradar24, there's been atleast 2 two NATO tankers in air constantly. There's a drone over the Black Sea thats been going for 3 days now. Earlier they had Rivet Joint SIGINT aircraft with their transponder on, we even got a surprise appearance by an F-16 over Romania. NATO is feeding Ukraine intel that is killing Russians.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:23
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Gripweed posted:If Russia does a nuclear strike the NATO response will be in the air before the Russian missiles explode. Pretty much. Don't forget that NATO countries have invested a LOT into missile defense in the last 30 years as well. There is questions on how well it actually works in reality but the prospect enough has caused Putin to lose his poo poo over them. You would have NATO response upon the entirety of the Russian military and leadership within minutes. And let's say worst case scenario the missile defense only takes out 25% of the incoming strikes, you still have a very robust force left. The only way something like that would work is if they have China as a full partner but even then you are looking are decimation for the China/Russia alliance quickly.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:23
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https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1497607304044236808 if resistance keeps up, Russia is going to have to police quite a lot of the country to protect supply lines...
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Feb 26, 2022 17:25
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The US/NATO isn't seriously considering a no fly zone are they? Why are we discussing this?
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Feb 26, 2022 17:25
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Grouchio posted:The US/NATO isn't seriously considering a no fly zone are they? Why are we discussing this? Because a handful of people really like fantasizing about WWIII.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:26
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Grouchio posted:The US/NATO isn't seriously considering a no fly zone are they? Why are we discussing this? the no fly zone exists and the ghost of kyiv is enforcing it
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Feb 26, 2022 17:26
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ronya posted:https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1497607304044236808 maybe they should stop sending their riot police to death then
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Feb 26, 2022 17:27
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Just had a dark thought. For maybe the first time we’re going to see what happens when patriotic anti occupation resistance synergies with readily available social media clout chasing.
FizFashizzle fucked around with this message at 17:33 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 17:27
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Trump posted:I've said it in this thread before, but I think we will find NATO helped Ukraine actively during the invasion, with intel and I imagine, boots on the ground in C&C positions. Even if the US/NATO is feeding literally nothing to Ukraine (and I agree that they almost certainly are,) it's an intelligence goldmine. It's not often you get to watch another military conduct no-poo poo near-peer combat operations. You can learn all kinds of fun stuff from this. E-8 JSTARs have been involved since the very beginnings of the buildup in Russia.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:27
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How can Putin survive this? Even if/when the Russian forces take control in Ukraine, Russia will have suffered so much geopolitical damage that its hard to see how they can salvage anything from this. They will be isolated from the rest of the world, even their usual allies, (outside the puppet states) are distancing themselves as much as possible. I'm very ignorant on the subject I know, but its hard to see any possible outcome from this that strengthens Russia's position on the world stage. To me, it looks like he's torpedoed his country because he wants to go back to the Good Old Days when Russia was Strong and he had hair.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:27
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Alchenar posted:Several NATO countries have openly adopted an aid policy that's effectively 'if you want to use this to kill Russians, you can have it for free'. Convoys of Polish trucks delivering free weapons into Ukraine is incredibly hostile and having countries like the UK and now even fuckin Germany dumping more weapons onto those trucks is a massive hit to Putin's short term goal to pacify Ukraine and his long term goal to destabilize NATO.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:27
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Grouchio posted:The US/NATO isn't seriously considering a no fly zone are they? Why are we discussing this? Nobody in any position to influence the option of a no fly zone is talking about it. It’s not on the table.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:28
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Grouchio posted:The US/NATO isn't seriously considering a no fly zone are they? Why are we discussing this? Most of it is just clancyposting, some is people hearing rumours and asking without considering the implications.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:29
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Libluini posted:maybe they should stop sending their riot police to death then in a not at all shocking twist, it turns out literally no one anywhere likes riot cops
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Feb 26, 2022 17:29
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Trump posted:I've said it in this thread before, but I think we will find NATO helped Ukraine actively during the invasion, with intel and I imagine, boots on the ground in C&C positions. Update from CNN just now basically confirms it. https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-26-22/h_73acdbfb950f26b32ff7800004bee3a8 quote:“We have continued to flow assistance to the Ukrainians, even since the airspace has become disputed and contested, and we’re going to continue to look for additional venues to do that,” the official said on a call with reporters.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:29
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Pookah posted:How can Putin survive this?. Dont underestimate the durability of an entrenched autocrat! I think this will hurt Russia a lot, but im skeptical we will see the end of Putin anytime soon.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:30
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Re: nuclear use: I reached out to my old international law professor, who jokes that he "solved the cold war" while working for RAND Corporation in the 80s. Since then he's probably played more Twilight Struggle than any human on earth. His TL;DR -
Alchenar posted:Several NATO countries have openly adopted an aid policy that's effectively 'if you want to use this to kill Russians, you can have it for free'. Tale as old as time. This was, and again now is, the cold war.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:30
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Gripweed posted:This is one of my big worries, in America and Europe war has been so detached from democracy, people don't think about it. We've created a state of constant war that is out of sight and out of mind. All of the military options we've come to rely on assume that we're dealing with a country that can in no serious way threaten us or respond proportionately to what we do to them. Now we're up against a country that can hit back. So what the gently caress do we do? All of the buttons we have to press just escalate the situation. You do exactly what we did in the cold war maybe with fewer coups in South America - impose economic costs, make sure collective defence is credible, pull as many people behind the Article 5 line as you can and bunker down for the long haul until someone ends up in charge of Russia who wants to try not being North Korea. And I think that at the beginning of this week there wasn't democratic consent for that approach in the West and at the end of this week there is.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:31
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ronya posted:https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1497590912146358275 That is very interesting as I'd assumed at some point they were going to have to try and shut the border to stop arms arriving from Poland.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:31
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punishedkissinger posted:Dont underestimate the durability of an entrenched autocrat! I think this will hurt Russia a lot, but im skeptical we will see the end of Putin anytime soon. Assad is still the president of a pile of ashes and smoke. That puts things in perspective.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:32
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FizFashizzle posted:Just had a dark tonight. For maybe the first time we’re going to see what happens when patriotic anti occupation resistance synergies with readily available social media clout chasing. The ukrainians seem to be stomping down really hard on absolutely anything that might give away troop movements.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:32
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Djarum posted:Update from CNN just now basically confirms it. Earlier today a Blackhawk was chilling right at the Ukraine border from Poland. I doubt it was carrying pepsi.
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Feb 26, 2022 17:32
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