Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
Red
Apr 15, 2003

Yeah, great at getting us into Wawa.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

*shakes magic eight ball*

signs point to no

At this point Russia's strategy here does not appear to have been particularly well thought out, no. All indicators are that Putin was and is operating on a set of assumptions (Ukraine will greet us as liberators; zelensky is like other politicians and will flee; Biden and NATO are weak willed and will be afraid to interfere; capturing a city the size of Chicago overnight with a few hundred spetnatz is a realistic plan; etc.) that are not congruent with reality.

Putin has a history of poor military decisions punctuated by a drastic "gently caress this".

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Qmass
Jun 3, 2003

nurmie posted:

gently caress off, you tedious idiot. I'm willing to bet you're nowhere near this poo poo geographically; meanwhile, most of my family lives within 25 km of Belorussian border. If this escalates (god loving forbid) they will be the ones hiding in the basement from Russian MLRS barrages while cunts like you hoot and holler from across the ocean about their great resolve and fighting spirit and other warmongering bullshit.

If you do share a continent with them, I'm willing to pay that only goon who's done a good deed so far so that they drive you to Polish/Ukrainian border. There, you can join some other brave fighters, get yourself a government-issued AK, and go show watch some cool combat footage IRL. Unless you're a loving coward, of course.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
why the gently caress was this probed ? fucken mods are cunts

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

freeasinbeer
Mar 26, 2015

by Fluffdaddy
Looks like someone gave him some better equipment: https://twitter.com/savunmasanayist/status/1497599406933258247?s=21

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497637136480276484?s=20&t=Paqb4c8Fd7Qz4osyH_eNGA

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Whoops. Reportedly a russian recon unit was captured in Kharkiv. Seems bad.

Spoilers for POW, but if anyone can read the paper in the 4th pic I'd be interested in what it says

https://twitter.com/EuroMaydan/status/1497636681092063233?t=U1ZQYez1QCzyMuf6D7qmjw&s=19

Edit: I also saved the 4th pic in case this gets taken down, because why not

distortion park
Apr 25, 2011


Is there any info about the quantity of intel being given to the Ukrainian army and at what level? It seems clear the NATO surveillance and communications interceptions are being fed to them, but is it going via the top brass or is some NATO dude calling up Ukrainian anti air units telling them to expect something from direction X in y minutes.


Same question for level of electronic warfare taking place - could NATO be disrupting russian communications or would that be treated as pretext for a war?

selec
Sep 6, 2003

I’m reading that the garrison on Snake Island was captured and not killed? Is there a good source for that?

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


distortion park posted:

Is there any info about the quantity of intel being given to the Ukrainian army and at what level? It seems clear the NATO surveillance and communications interceptions are being fed to them, but is it going via the top brass or is some NATO dude calling up Ukrainian anti air units telling them to expect something from direction X in y minutes.


Same question for level of electronic warfare taking place - could NATO be disrupting russian communications or would that be treated as pretext for a war?

None of us can know that.

Aunt Teefa
Mar 17, 2015


Could we please add “shut the gently caress up about no fly zones” to the OP thx

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

distortion park posted:

Is there any info about the quantity of intel being given to the Ukrainian army and at what level? It seems clear the NATO surveillance and communications interceptions are being fed to them, but is it going via the top brass or is some NATO dude calling up Ukrainian anti air units telling them to expect something from direction X in y minutes.


Same question for level of electronic warfare taking place - could NATO be disrupting russian communications or would that be treated as pretext for a war?

It would be shocking if they weren't getting basically the best intel available, with a lot of bandwidth dedicated to it. Disrupting communications seems more blatantly like directly engaging in hostilities though.

honneurifique
Jan 9, 2020
Progress, maybe?
from CNN 6 min ago:

Germany supports SWIFT sanctions against Russia in some form
From Inke Kappeler in Berlin
Germany has said it will support restricting Russia from SWIFT after days of debate among European Union members as to whether to include the global interbank payment system in its next round of sanctions.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and German Economics Minister Robert Habeck in a joint tweet on Saturday said they are “under high pressure to avoid collateral damage when decoupling (Russia) from SWIFT so it will hit the right people. What we need is a targeted and functional constraint of SWIFT.”

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




KitConstantine posted:

Whoops. Reportedly a russian recon unit was captured in Kharkiv. Seems bad.

Spoilers for POW, but if anyone can read the paper in the 4th pic I'd be interested in what it says

For context, Vympel is like Delta Force equivalent of Federal Security Service. I would take this with a grain of salt.

The paper in 4th photo has a list with senior personnel of Vympel (units, names, ranks), and I'm not sure why it's there, and what connection it has to the tweet or the other photos.

MadJackal
Apr 30, 2004

Majorian posted:

Amusingly, The Hill, of all news outlets, had a piece suggesting sanctioning the central bank even before the invasion:

Of course, this would hurt economically vulnerable Russians the most, and that wouldn't be good, so hopefully if they go this route, it will cause the Russian leadership to cut bait quickly.

Sometimes I read things about finance and think I need to be on drugs to understand how money rules everything yet also doesn't exist as anything more than a shared delusion.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497631706819485696

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Kikas posted:

Well the news in Poland today is that we have already took in 80k in civilians across the border.

I recall my mother, long ago, speaking of DP's and when I asked her what that meant she said, "Poles." It's like someone malicious just tweaked history just a little bit but just enough for it to be unspeakably familiar.

Trump
Jul 16, 2003

Cute

distortion park posted:

Is there any info about the quantity of intel being given to the Ukrainian army and at what level? It seems clear the NATO surveillance and communications interceptions are being fed to them, but is it going via the top brass or is some NATO dude calling up Ukrainian anti air units telling them to expect something from direction X in y minutes.


Same question for level of electronic warfare taking place - could NATO be disrupting russian communications or would that be treated as pretext for a war?

My theory is that NATO is sharing on a 1:1 ratio, with boots on the ground on a C&C level.

How much NATO are directly interfering is a complete unknown, a little jamming here and there wouldn't surprise me.

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



Aunt Teefa posted:

Could we please add “shut the gently caress up about no fly zones” to the OP thx

Add 'The No "No Fly Zone" Zone' to the thread title.

Nazzadan
Jun 22, 2016




Him on the phone asking for better equipment and more men

EvilHawk
Sep 15, 2009

LIVARPOOL!

Klopp's 13pts clear thanks to video ref

distortion park posted:

Is there any info about the quantity of intel being given to the Ukrainian army and at what level? It seems clear the NATO surveillance and communications interceptions are being fed to them, but is it going via the top brass or is some NATO dude calling up Ukrainian anti air units telling them to expect something from direction X in y minutes.


Same question for level of electronic warfare taking place - could NATO be disrupting russian communications or would that be treated as pretext for a war?

Yeah I'm really curious about this too. What's stopping, say, the US from having an open line direct to Ukraine giving them live troop movements from satellites and drone/recon aircraft?

Unkempt
May 24, 2003

...perfect spiral, scientists are still figuring it out...

KitConstantine posted:

Whoops. Reportedly a russian recon unit was captured in Kharkiv. Seems bad.

Spoilers for POW, but if anyone can read the paper in the 4th pic I'd be interested in what it says

https://twitter.com/EuroMaydan/status/1497636681092063233?t=U1ZQYez1QCzyMuf6D7qmjw&s=19

Edit: I also saved the 4th pic in case this gets taken down, because why not

Ran it through a translator:



Hmmm. Cops.

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

selec posted:

I’m reading that the garrison on Snake Island was captured and not killed? Is there a good source for that?

I think a Ukrainian ministry confirmed it a couple hours ago. Just be happy those legends are alive.

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017


i have to lol at the LMG

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

EvilHawk posted:

Yeah I'm really curious about this too. What's stopping, say, the US from having an open line direct to Ukraine giving them live troop movements from satellites and drone/recon aircraft?

Nothing, they are. When people wonder why Russia isn't rolling over Ukraine like the US did Iraq, this is one of several big differences.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

cinci zoo sniper posted:

For context, Vympel is like Delta Force equivalent of Federal Security Service. I would take this with a grain of salt.

Yeah, that would be embarrassing - the Russians put a lot of pride in that unit.:stare:

For historical context, Vympel Group was one of the units that took part in the '91 August failed coup against Gorbachev.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

honneurifique posted:


German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and German Economics Minister Robert Habeck in a joint tweet on Saturday said they are “under high pressure to avoid collateral damage when decoupling (Russia) from SWIFT so it will hit the right people. What we need is a targeted and functional constraint of SWIFT.”

Sound's like they're prepping for half measures to keep the gas flowing, but sanctioning specific people?

Sashimi
Dec 26, 2008


College Slice

selec posted:

I’m reading that the garrison on Snake Island was captured and not killed? Is there a good source for that?
Still up in the air. There was a video that's been posted in this thread that is allegedly of captured members of the garrison being handed bottles of water, but it's just dudes handing out water. Nobody's verified who was in the video.

Unless new information has dropped in the last couple of hours that is...

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




distortion park posted:

Is there any info about the quantity of intel being given to the Ukrainian army and at what level? It seems clear the NATO surveillance and communications interceptions are being fed to them, but is it going via the top brass or is some NATO dude calling up Ukrainian anti air units telling them to expect something from direction X in y minutes.

We don't have such information.

selec posted:

I’m reading that the garrison on Snake Island was captured and not killed? Is there a good source for that?

Russian media are sharing an identical video of dudes in military fatigues receiving water bottles on a ship, with accompanying text about surrender. As far as we can tell, we still have no ironclad confirmation of their status. Earlier before, Ukrainian Border Guard did make a Facebook post that they have received information potentially locating some number of guards stationed there, which they're currently investigating.

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

Sinteres posted:

Nothing, they are. When people wonder why Russia isn't rolling over Ukraine like the US did Iraq, this is one of several big differences.

those ELINT planes can cover the entire country with their radars right?

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


EvilHawk posted:

Yeah I'm really curious about this too. What's stopping, say, the US from having an open line direct to Ukraine giving them live troop movements from satellites and drone/recon aircraft?

There’s a lot of hubbub that the reason the Ukrainians are over performing is because they’re receiving five eyes/nato intel. But they’re not going to tell randos on the internet their exact set-up while they’re in a war.

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

Sashimi posted:

Still up in the air. There was a video that's been posted in this thread that is allegedly of captured members of the garrison being handed bottles of water, but it's just dudes handing out water. Nobody's verified who was in the video.

Unless new information has dropped in the last couple of hours that is...

The video wasn't the clincher, there was an update from (I think) the Ukrainian ministry of the interior or defense a couple pages back. We would have to assume they've been in contact with the Russians who've provided them info that makes them confident to now say they are alive and taken prisoner.

edit: Would it ruin the beauty of that recording if it turns out they didn't all die?

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

KitConstantine posted:

Bellingcat is logging reported and verified croudsourced military sighting and incident locations

Filterable by date, country, army, etc.

https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1497581992350736391?t=l-hTq38kfvRsqOCeGmD7OA&s=19


Not a whole lot from today yet, but shows movements going back to January

Going armchair general for a second on that map; reduce Kyiv, link Crimea with the two 'independent' sections of Ukraine up to their old larger boundary lines and call it a day.

If Putin doesn't do something like that he's just tied himself up to low grade warfare for decades, getting him to fully withdraw will be hard.

Sorry for the downer. :(

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Randarkman posted:

The video wasn't the clincher, there was an update from (I think) the Ukrainian ministry of the interior or defense a couple pages back. We would have to assume they've been in contact with the Russians who've provided them info that makes them confident to now say they are alive and taken prisoner.

I'll quote the post.


cinci zoo sniper posted:

I'll quote the full text for ease of reference.

quote:

We got strong beliefs that all Ukrainian defenders of Zmiiniy Island may be alive
The SBGSU and the Armed Forces, like the whole of Ukraine, have received hope that all of Zmiiny's defenders are alive.
Russian media reported that Ukrainian servicemen on the island, who were temporarily occupied by Russia in Sevastopol, had been sent to Sevastopol.
Preliminary information that border guards may be dead came before the defenders lost contact.
As previously reported, on February 24, the aggressor fired from naval weapons and used combat aircraft on border guards and soldiers of the Armed Forces on the island of Zmiiny.
According to available information at the time, the infrastructure was destroyed and the island captured.
Prior to that, the enemy repeatedly tried in vain to intimidate Ukrainian defenders with demands to surrender and received only one correct answer - no one will surrender.
We understand that Russian propagandists know how to make the necessary information attacks and use them, noting that Ukrainian defenders have surrendered.
Border guards and fighters of the Armed Forces bravely defended themselves, especially in the face of the overwhelming means of defeat and enemy forces.
Work to learn about the fate of Ukrainian defenders continued in all possible directions.
Currently, after receiving information about their probable location, the SBGS together with the Armed Forces is working to identify our soldiers, which is common in open networks.
We sincerely hope that the boys will return home as soon as possible, and the information received at the time of the attack on the death will not be confirmed.
Glory to Ukrainian defenders !!!

As far as I'm concerned, this is not a confirmation of a surrender. They simply state they've received information that some number of those guards may be alive.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Trump posted:

My theory is that NATO is sharing on a 1:1 ratio, with boots on the ground on a C&C level.

How much NATO are directly interfering is a complete unknown, a little jamming here and there wouldn't surprise me.

For the past 3 days, a RQ-4 Global Hawk has been flying in international airspace around the conflict zone - if that thing has the Gorgon Stare equipped, the Russians have no chance of sneezing without NATO knowing where and how hard.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Another really welcome difference about this conflict is the universal recognition that this is entirely Putin, just Putin, and there's been no demonizing Russians, but oddly sympathy.

mmkay
Oct 21, 2010

the popes toes posted:

I recall my mother, long ago, speaking of DP's and when I asked her what that meant she said, "Poles." It's like someone malicious just tweaked history just a little bit but just enough for it to be unspeakably familiar.

What does DP mean in this context, I'm turning it around in my head and coming up with nothing.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

mmkay posted:

What does DP mean in this context, I'm turning it around in my head and coming up with nothing.

Displaced Person (I'm 69 yrs old)

biglads
Feb 21, 2007

I could've gone to Blatherwycke



mmkay posted:

What does DP mean in this context, I'm turning it around in my head and coming up with nothing.

Displaced People

EDIT: beaten

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




the popes toes posted:

Another really welcome difference about this conflict is the universal recognition that this is entirely Putin, just Putin, and there's been no demonizing Russians, but oddly sympathy.

I wouldn’t hold my breath about this one. I agree with concerns expressed previously by some posters, that backlash against Russian minorities in other countries may follow. For instance, in Latvia I worry that native Russia speakers will be even further ostracised from having a say in politics, on “national security concerns” grounds.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

This message paid for by the Men's Wearhouse& Jos A Bank Lobbying Group

Randarkman posted:

The video wasn't the clincher, there was an update from (I think) the Ukrainian ministry of the interior or defense a couple pages back. We would have to assume they've been in contact with the Russians who've provided them info that makes them confident to now say they are alive and taken prisoner.

edit: Would it ruin the beauty of that recording if it turns out they didn't all die?

No one knows but the logical conclusion for now without those people's faces on TV it's Russian bullshit because they know the world has made them badass matryrs.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


mmkay posted:

What does DP mean in this context, I'm turning it around in my head and coming up with nothing.

Double penetration. Pole is often as slang term for penis due to its similar long cylindrical shape and while being DPed there are two plural. Why he was discussing sex acts with his mother or why he’s sharing it with this thread I cannot say

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5