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Acebuckeye13 posted:Taking the oligarch's toys isn't going to stop the war, and believing otherwise is hopelessly naïve. They don't run the show: Putin does, and his motivation to invade Ukraine has nothing to do with money. The relationship is a bit more complex than that. The oligarchs are definitely strongly influenced by Putin but Putin needs their support and in return he makes them rich. Beyond that they don't seem to have any particular loyalty to him or to Putin's dreams of restoring the Russian empire so it's entirely feasible that some or all of them decide that there's more money to be made with someone else running the show.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:22
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Majorian posted:This exactly, and he retains their support as long as he keeps making them money. Cut that line of support off, and they will sideline him just like they sidelined Yeltsin before him. This all seems like a complex structure that started out by explaining actions and ended up excusing them.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:22
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https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497815751662739456?s=20&t=G78cfaP_oEFL3NzsECEHUg No updates from Chernihiv or other Ukrainian friends and family. It's early there, so I'll try not to worry too much.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:22
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After the sanctions have been used you are left with military action, and nuclear fire I guess. That does not alter that if there ever is a time to use all sanctions it's now. Unless you wanna surrender to Putin, which could be argued as the lesser of two evils, that is the only course of action.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:22
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So I'm getting the feeling from the soldiers and general population reaction that the Russian people are pretty much North Koreans with some modern amenities?
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Feb 27, 2022 07:22
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KillHour posted:Isn't the idea of sanctions that you can stop sanctioning the other party when they agree to stop being a fuckup? If you completely ban Russia from SWIFT and Russia capitulates and comes to the table, you now have readmittance to SWIFT as a bargaining chip. Yeah if Russia halted the invasion and fully withdrew they right now they could just undo the SWIFT ban and things go mostly back to normal for Russia. If you seize all oligarch property I'm guessing that's a lot harder to then hand back if Russia decides to stand down. I get the sense of urgency many are feeling that we need to do everything we can to save Ukraine right now but I think there is some legitimacy to escalating these sanctions over time and making Russians and Putin's backers question how bad things might get for them the longer this drags on. If you play all your cards right out of the gate you have now lost all negotiating power and Putin will have no reason to hold back.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:24
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Greg of Doom posted:So I'm getting the feeling from the soldiers and general population reaction that the Russian people are pretty much North Koreans with some modern amenities? There does seem to be suggestion that Putin called an audible about all of this stuff and people were improperly geared as well as having "BTW, you're invading Ukraine for real" dropped on them at the last possible minute.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:25
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Nessus posted:People have been saying that Putin has consolidated his power for years and years. What if the oligarchs cannot run him out of town the way they did to Yeltsin? What if they are mostly suborned or afraid of being outright murdered? Is there a point where this would be possible, or is it axiomatic that if the oligarchs have not yet run him out of office, then the West has not applied sufficient pressure? Putin knows he is vulnerable to this kind of thing and has been making sure he is protected for years. But, he is one man and regardless of what he does, how many thugs he hires, he still cannot stop it if the people truly turn against him.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:25
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Also, I admit I'm not too up on the specifics myself but wasn't there thread discussion earlier about how the SWIFT ban is big, but the central bank asset freeze is bigger? Like, "potentially shatter the Russian economy" big. Which is...admittedly a pretty poo poo deal for the average Russian on the street but I would have thought that would have oligarchs howling as is.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:25
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gay picnic defence posted:The relationship is a bit more complex than that. The oligarchs are definitely strongly influenced by Putin but Putin needs their support and in return he makes them rich. Beyond that they don't seem to have any particular loyalty to him or to Putin's dreams of restoring the Russian empire so it's entirely feasible that some or all of them decide that there's more money to be made with someone else running the show. It's a complex relationship for sure, but at the end of the day Putin is still the one firmly in control — he is the one, after all, that has command of the FSB's assassins, and there are rumors that his personal wealth eclipses that of the rest of the oligarchs combined.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:25
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Popete posted:Yeah if Russia halted the invasion and fully withdrew they right now they could just undo the SWIFT ban and things go mostly back to normal for Russia. If you seize all oligarch property I'm guessing that's a lot harder to then hand back if Russia decides to stand down. I get the sense of urgency many are feeling that we need to do everything we can to save Ukraine right now but I think there is some legitimacy to escalating these sanctions over time and making Russians and Putin's backers question how bad things might get for them the longer this drags on. If you play all your cards right out of the gate you have now lost all negotiating power and Putin will have no reason to hold back. That is the total opposite to what I'm saying. I'm saying you hit hard with everything you got and dangle it in front of them as a carrot to cooperate. If you slowly turn up the heat, you're just playing into sunk cost fallacy. If full sanctions isn't enough to stop Russia, it wouldn't be enough now or a week from now.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:26
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Tomn posted:Also, I admit I'm not too up on the specifics myself but wasn't there thread discussion earlier about how the SWIFT ban is big, but the central bank asset freeze is bigger? Like, "potentially shatter the Russian economy" big. Which is...admittedly a pretty poo poo deal for the average Russian on the street but I would have thought that would have oligarchs howling as is. It's much bigger, which makes this all yelling about SWIFT or yacht seizures look simply silly. Russian money markets will turn into a corn cob on Monday.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:27
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I was in favor of being slow. But then they sent paratroopers to Kiev and Putin said in a speech that Lenin made a mistake when he gave, for example, Finland independence.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:29
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Ukraine now calling for allies to provide more offensive capability in the wake of the Russian shift to targeting civilian infrastructure and nuclear storage locations https://twitter.com/UmlandAndreas/status/1497813630942945283?t=f-vFHiMVILV41nP38_vAkg&s=19 Asking for tanks? Drones? "Unaffilated units"? It's left slightly ambiguous
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Feb 27, 2022 07:30
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KillHour posted:That is the total opposite to what I'm saying. I'm saying you hit hard with everything you got and dangle it in front of them as a carrot to cooperate. If you slowly turn up the heat, you're just playing into sunk cost fallacy. If you pull all the stops right now and Putin continues to invade then what is left? Maybe there is an uprising in Russia or maybe he weathers the storm for a few weeks and then he feels completely unfettered to do whatever it takes to win. I'm not saying one way or the other is right, just that I can see a legitimate tactic to leaving something in the tank at this stage (day 3 of the invasion). Will any of this ultimately matter and save Ukraine? No I don't think so, at least not in the immediate future. Putin seems determined to win this war, whether he can hold onto Ukraine or even his hold on Russia months from now is totally up in the air.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:31
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https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1497721454250508288 https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1494981580468621313
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Feb 27, 2022 07:31
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Acebuckeye13 posted:It's a complex relationship for sure, but at the end of the day Putin is still the one firmly in control — he is the one, after all, that has command of the FSB's assassins, and there are rumors that his personal wealth eclipses that of the rest of the oligarchs combined. For sure, but by targeting the oligarchs you are targeting the only people who have any chance of putting pressure on him (aside from a popular uprising among civilians or the armed forces).
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Feb 27, 2022 07:31
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i can’t vouch for this footage but it looks nuts nothing NMS https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1497820400608231425?s=21
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Feb 27, 2022 07:32
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One thing I've been wondering: is it possible that you go too hard on the economic/personal sanctions and make the inner circle double down instead of trying to do something more nefarious or bring them/Putin to the negotiating table? I could imagine them thinking "well now I definitely have nothing to lose, so let's just commit to our guy 200% and see how far we can ride this." In this case, perhaps there's an argument for a strong but incremental approach?
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Feb 27, 2022 07:33
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Tomn posted:Also, I admit I'm not too up on the specifics myself but wasn't there thread discussion earlier about how the SWIFT ban is big, but the central bank asset freeze is bigger? Like, "potentially shatter the Russian economy" big. Which is...admittedly a pretty poo poo deal for the average Russian on the street but I would have thought that would have oligarchs howling as is. Yes it is huge, and precisely because it hits the real Russian economy and not rich guys in London and Paris like Swift might. Putin's legitimacy rests on the fact that he saved Russia from the economic chaos of the 90s. On Monday the rouble is going to start to collapse as the central bank will be unable to use is Euro assets to service debt and buy roubles to sure up their value. The point where a loaf of bread costs a million roubles and you can't withdraw cash from the bank is the point when ordinary people stop supporting Putin.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:33
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Feb 27, 2022 07:34
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If the stakes weren't so high I would actually love to see unmarked Patriot batteries and drones and unmarked f-35s doing their thing and the United States just saying "well they are unmarked we have no idea who they could be  "Little gray predator drones
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Feb 27, 2022 07:35
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gay picnic defence posted:For sure, but by targeting the oligarchs you are targeting the only people who have any chance of putting pressure on him (aside from a popular uprising among civilians or the armed forces). I do absolutely agree with this, but unfortunately that probably won't be enough.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:35
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Greg of Doom posted:https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1497721454250508288 I am losing my poo poo right now
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Feb 27, 2022 07:37
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Greg of Doom posted:https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1497721454250508288 That feeling when the cheque bounces.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:40
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Russia setting the stage for major bombing https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1497819987121254403?t=cIK6GNDLPTunq8k5y1i3oA&s=19
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Feb 27, 2022 07:40
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Feb 27, 2022 07:41
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How is Putin going to pay Tulsi if Russia can't use SWIFT
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Feb 27, 2022 07:41
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There's a ton of video floating around. Downside of daylight https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497823759734132740?t=ACQQgQqiI9qnR9HuZ3jxIQ&s=19
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Feb 27, 2022 07:41
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please do not get me fuckin' started on tulsi gabbard, i may be the only hindu on the forums and i have Opinions about both her and the fascist hindutva monsters she and the cult she's in support in India
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Feb 27, 2022 07:41
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dominoeffect posted:One thing I've been wondering: is it possible that you go too hard on the economic/personal sanctions and make the inner circle double down instead of trying to do something more nefarious or bring them/Putin to the negotiating table? I could imagine them thinking "well now I definitely have nothing to lose, so let's just commit to our guy 200% and see how far we can ride this." In this case, perhaps there's an argument for a strong but incremental approach? It is, there comes a point that you have nothing further to threaten them with and in that case what do you do if they decide to just keep going? If some of these sanctions are going to take weeks or months for their full effect to be felt it's important to keep something in reserve in case that doesn't work, even if it feels like western nations aren't doing everything possible to help Ukraine right now. They just have to hope Ukraine can hold on for long enough for the sanctions to really start to bite. Similarly, it's probably also really important to leave a way out of this that lets Russia/Putin save face. Otherwise they'll just double down until they're forcibly removed, because there's no way Putin would agree to any kind of settlement that looks like he's been kicked out with his tail between his legs. That might mean the west recognising those separatist territories or something like that. I think the only realistic alternative for ending the invasion would be Putin getting couped. a pipe smoking dog posted:Yes it is huge, and precisely because it hits the real Russian economy and not rich guys in London and Paris like Swift might. Putin's legitimacy rests on the fact that he saved Russia from the economic chaos of the 90s. On Monday the rouble is going to start to collapse as the central bank will be unable to use is Euro assets to service debt and buy roubles to sure up their value. The point where a loaf of bread costs a million roubles and you can't withdraw cash from the bank is the point when ordinary people stop supporting Putin. Assuming the average Russian is well informed enough to make the link between the invasion and the economic destruction, and doesn't just believe the inevitable 'western aggression against peaceful Russian intentions' line that state TV will be spewing.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:43
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Nessus posted:People have been saying that Putin has consolidated his power for years and years. What if the oligarchs cannot run him out of town the way they did to Yeltsin? What if they are mostly suborned or afraid of being outright murdered? Is there a point where this would be possible, or is it axiomatic that if the oligarchs have not yet run him out of office, then the West has not applied sufficient pressure? Putin has consolidated power overall, but it still rests on that important foundation of "we'll support you as long as you keep making us money." Up until recently he's been pretty good on that front. But his mishandling of COVID, his period of isolation during the pandemic, and now this likely-to-be disastrous war of choice haven't been good for the oligarchs' bottom lines. I obviously can't promise that the West cutting deeper into their bottom lines will lead to them sidelining him or tugging on the reins as far as his imperial ambitions are concerned. But I can say that the angry snarls we're hearing from folks like Medvedev in response to these ideas even being discussed are encouraging.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:43
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:How is Putin going to pay Tulsi if Russia can't use SWIFT
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Feb 27, 2022 07:44
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Yeah wonder if Tucker Carlson is going to puill a full 180
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Feb 27, 2022 07:45
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Nessus posted:It's gonna be pretty loving funny if about sixty percent of the people taking Putin's side abruptly change opinions over the next billing cycle. It will be very interesting indeed to spot which GOP candidates are suspiciously light in the pocket come midterm election season.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:45
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Popete posted:If you pull all the stops right now and Putin continues to invade then what is left? Maybe there is an uprising in Russia or maybe he weathers the storm for a few weeks and then he feels completely unfettered to do whatever it takes to win. I guess what I'm saying is if you pull all the stops and he keeps invading, he would have kept invading no matter what you did - just now you know that a week in advance. Slowly turning the heat up ineffectively feels like you're doing something but is really just putting you at more of a disadvantage.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:45
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GreyjoyBastard posted:please do not get me fuckin' started on tulsi gabbard, i may be the only hindu on the forums and i have Opinions about both her and the fascist hindutva monsters she and the cult she's in support in India lol what? What's her story anyway? How is she involved with Russia?
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Feb 27, 2022 07:46
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This is crazy. Full daylight video, filming with a playground in the foreground. There's exchange of fire at the end but no one's hit on screen. I'll spoiler it if necessary, let me know https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497824591569252352?t=ne2WfTbH77i26CX-quoTBA&s=19
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Feb 27, 2022 07:46
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Caros posted:That feeling when the cheque bounces. Probably going to be seeing a lot of that in the coming days.
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Feb 27, 2022 07:47
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Despera posted:Yeah wonder if Tucker Carlson is going to puill a full 180 There is video of him from back in 2019 of why he should care about Ukraine, and that he's on Putins side
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Feb 27, 2022 07:48
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