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Bored As Fuck
Jan 1, 2006
Fun Shoe
Anyone have any good Twitter accounts, YouTube channels, or good resources that'll give daily updates on Ukraine?

S2 Underground is a great resource. It's a channel run by what has to be former Army intel from the way he talks and all the drat PowerPoint slides. He's way conservative and an anti vaxxer, but his intel updates are excellent and he keeps his politics out of it and only reports facts.
https://youtube.com/c/S2Underground

The OSINT Technical guy on Twitter is really good too.

Any others?

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-Anders
Feb 1, 2007

Denmark. Wait, what?

Bored As gently caress posted:

Anyone have any good Twitter accounts, YouTube channels, or good resources that'll give daily updates on Ukraine?

S2 Underground is a great resource. It's a channel run by what has to be former Army intel from the way he talks and all the drat PowerPoint slides. He's way conservative and an anti vaxxer, but his intel updates are excellent and he keeps his politics out of it and only reports facts.
https://youtube.com/c/S2Underground

The OSINT Technical guy on Twitter is really good too.

Any others?

I made a list of those I'm currently following. There might be a few Danish language tweets in there every once in a while though.

https://twitter.com/i/lists/1497123237804793876?s=20

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


The proliferation of saboteur caught vids worries me a bit. Seems a bit more likely that all these reservists and armed civilians are falling into mass hysteria than that the Russians have dozens of guys painting mysterious marks and sabotaging apartment building gas lines, no?

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

aphid_licker posted:

The proliferation of saboteur caught vids worries me a bit. Seems a bit more likely that all these reservists and armed civilians are falling into mass hysteria than that the Russians have dozens of guys painting mysterious marks and sabotaging apartment building gas lines, no?

It does strike me as a very successful Russian PsyOp tactic. I have seen a few with Police exchanging fire with very obvious plain clothes Russian special forces, but it was also clearly designed to sow fear and confusion.

mmtt
May 8, 2009
Study of War gives detailed military situation updates on a daily basis https://www.understandingwar.org

For hour per hour updates from the Ukrainian perspective https://kyivindependent.com/national/russias-war-on-ukraine-where-fighting-is-on-now-feb-27-live-updates/

For the latest latest, you need to dig a bit more for Discords & Telegram groups. The risk is you'll find unverified or fake intel. Western OSINT tends to check a bit more but even Twitter lags behind Ukrainian Telegrams.

mmtt fucked around with this message at 13:04 on Feb 27, 2022

nurmie
Dec 8, 2019

aphid_licker posted:

The proliferation of saboteur caught vids worries me a bit. Seems a bit more likely that all these reservists and armed civilians are falling into mass hysteria than that the Russians have dozens of guys painting mysterious marks and sabotaging apartment building gas lines, no?

Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I'm leaning towards the whole "thousands of aks to anyone who wants them" thing being an extremely bad call. Like, setting aside local criminal gangs probably using them to shoot at each other as we speak or hoarding like half of them to sell away later - giving assault rifles to stressed out, untrained people seems like a recipe for shitloads of friendly fire incidents and just wanton shooting at anything that resembles a saboteur (who are notoriously similar to, you know, just random people)

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016
“We need to arm everyone willing to fight” seems like a reasonable response to getting invaded by a superpower.

We have “joked” on this very forum about arming minorities in this country.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





nurmie posted:

Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I'm leaning towards the whole "thousands of aks to anyone who wants them" thing being an extremely bad call. Like, setting aside local criminal gangs probably using them to shoot at each other as we speak or hoarding like half of them to sell away later - giving assault rifles to stressed out, untrained people seems like a recipe for shitloads of friendly fire incidents and just wanton shooting at anything that resembles a saboteur (who are notoriously similar to, you know, just random people)

I'm not sure if this was intentional, but you have very clearly and succinctly described how the rest of the world views guns.

Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





boop the snoot posted:

“We need to arm everyone willing to fight” seems like a reasonable response to getting invaded by a superpower.

Yeah also this, deal with the friendly fire once the unfriendly fire stops.

Bored As Fuck
Jan 1, 2006
Fun Shoe

-Anders posted:

I made a list of those I'm currently following. There might be a few Danish language tweets in there every once in a while though.

https://twitter.com/i/lists/1497123237804793876?s=20

mmtt posted:

Study of War gives detailed military situation updates on a daily basis https://www.understandingwar.org

For hour per hour updates from the Ukrainian perspective https://kyivindependent.com/national/russias-war-on-ukraine-where-fighting-is-on-now-feb-27-live-updates/

For the latest latest, you need to dig a bit more for Discords & Telegram groups. The risk is you'll find unverified or fake intel. Western OSINT tends to check a bit more but even Twitter lags behind Ukrainian Telegrams.
That's great! Thank you both so much!

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f0873d0384b20ba

Rumor has it Belarus is about to throw their hat into the meat grinder.

Pretty dumb move if true, given they barely survived the uprising a couple of years ago. I'd imagine their forces being committed to an unpopular war would accelerate Lukashanko's ouster.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

The opposition leader Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya went all in.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1497583706038484996

Jasper Tin Neck fucked around with this message at 13:24 on Feb 27, 2022

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Pretty sure the CIA is screaming with delight.

Bored As Fuck
Jan 1, 2006
Fun Shoe
The amount of intel their HUMINT assets are giving them has to be massive.

Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

You're a pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty girl

boop the snoot posted:

“We need to arm everyone willing to fight” seems like a reasonable response to getting invaded by a superpower.

We have “joked” on this very forum about arming minorities in this country.

We're mostly veterans here, of one type or another, and we've seen what happens when untrained people go up against even semi-trained troops like the russian conscripts and slightly better contract warriors. They get slaughtered in droves. yeah, guerrilla forces defeat even the US but the cost is absolutely enormous in blood and suffering. it just doesnt work out well for anyone. that said, i guess having guns everywhere will help out with the inevitable resitance movement though.

So, maybe unpopular question, but it seems to me like a lot of the stuff we see in media etc is very obvious "feel good" stuff, and that the ukrainians are in much as bad a place as the russians and that there's very little concerted effort and unity of command. is this backed up by what y'all see? the russians are obviously not doing half as well as feared, but the ukrainians seem very scattered to me watching from afar.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Bored As gently caress posted:

The amount of intel their HUMINT assets are giving them has to be massive.

They've probably already got weapons in the hands of the Belarusian opposition.

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016

Nuclear War posted:

We're mostly veterans here, of one type or another, and we've seen what happens when untrained people go up against even semi-trained troops like the russian conscripts and slightly better contract warriors. They get slaughtered in droves. yeah, guerrilla forces defeat even the US but the cost is absolutely enormous in blood and suffering. it just doesnt work out well for anyone. that said, i guess having guns everywhere will help out with the inevitable resitance movement though.

So, maybe unpopular question, but it seems to me like a lot of the stuff we see in media etc is very obvious "feel good" stuff, and that the ukrainians are in much as bad a place as the russians and that there's very little concerted effort and unity of command. is this backed up by what y'all see? the russians are obviously not doing half as well as feared, but the ukrainians seem very scattered to me watching from afar.

You’re still looking at things from the invader perspective.

These people are literally defending their doorstep.

People are willing to die for that for good reason.

As I saw on twitter: “if Russia stops there’s no war. If Ukraine stops there’s no Ukraine.”

nurmie
Dec 8, 2019

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

I'm not sure if this was intentional, but you have very clearly and succinctly described how the rest of the world views guns.

I mean, yeah, basically that too.

Though NB: I'm not american, and neither I'm a veteran (so i'm probably gonna go back to lurking here instead of posting, don't mind me :v:)

Liquid Communism
Mar 9, 2004

коммунизм хранится в яичках
Given the number of phone cam vids we're seeing of Russian units walking around urban areas with absolutely zero cover or concealment, an AK in the right hands is a big force multiplier.

Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

You're a pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty girl

boop the snoot posted:

You’re still looking at things from the invader perspective.

These people are literally defending their doorstep.

People are willing to die for that for good reason.

As I saw on twitter: “if Russia stops there’s no war. If Ukraine stops there’s no Ukraine.”

Im not saying they shouldn't defend themselves. or that i have a better idea, just that this never works out well in my (limited) experience. your post makes it seem like you think im cheering the russians on which i am very much not, i just see a lot of blue on blue in their future.

edit: and a lot of lives lost. while the blood will be all on putins hands, i don't think families of people being armed and sent out to fight with no training will feel lass devastated. i dunno.

Nuclear War fucked around with this message at 14:11 on Feb 27, 2022

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016

Nuclear War posted:

Im not saying they shouldn't defend themselves. or that i have a better idea, just that this never works out well in my (limited) experience. your post makes it seem like you think im cheering the russians on which i am very much not, i just see a lot of blue on blue in their future.

I apologize for making you seem pro-Russian. It wasn’t my intention. But implying people shouldn’t arm themselves because of something that *might* happen in the future, at the expense of defending their country *right now* is some western imperialist propaganda.

Torrannor
Apr 27, 2013

---FAGNER---
TEAM-MATE

Nuclear War posted:

So, maybe unpopular question, but it seems to me like a lot of the stuff we see in media etc is very obvious "feel good" stuff, and that the ukrainians are in much as bad a place as the russians and that there's very little concerted effort and unity of command. is this backed up by what y'all see? the russians are obviously not doing half as well as feared, but the ukrainians seem very scattered to me watching from afar.

It's a tough question. It seems like Ukrainian political and military leadership is still intact, so they probably still have a unified command. It's just that they simply have no way to just stop the Russians from advancing, seeing as they're outnumbered and outgunned. So I think what they're doing is avoiding pitched battles and ambushing Russians as much as possible. So the Ukrainians probably are scattered, but by choice because that gives them the best chances to bloody the Russians. And it has always been clear that the Ukrainians can't "win" the war against the Russian troops, but they maybe can make it just too bloody and costly for the Russians to continue, like the Afghans did to the USA and Soviet Union. Only perhaps in a much shorter time frame, if the Russians struggle as much as we hope they do.

Duzzy Funlop
Jan 13, 2010

Hi there, would you like to try some spicy products?

I missed this yesterday, but apparently Pornhub blocked access from Russia, instead displaying the flag of Ukraine.

Kinda hard to laugh at the moment, but...


...heh

The Sausages
Sep 30, 2012

What do you want to do? Who do you want to be?

Proud Christian Mom posted:

no one is saying Russian is losing, but their plan absolutely went to poo poo when the first airport takeover was repulsed after they couldn't get any forces to it due to them eating javelins left and right. they are absolutely taking losses they were not expecting.
What worries me at present was reading over the development of Russia's first war against Chechnya and seeing blatant parallels wrt the early stages - confused, ill-equipped, demoralized Russians losing to impassioned and capable defenders. While there are notable differences as well, I would not like to see a similar pathway of escalation to mass civilian casualties over the following weeks. If tankies really are claiming it's all going to plan, then it's an wasteful, utterly callous plan to repeat an embarrassing, bloody nadir in Russia's military history, a plan that insanely sacrifices combatants and equipment for the sake of enabling mass civilian casualties later on, a plan that doesn't take into account how the media landscape has changed over ~25 years. And that's still unfortunately (if somewhat remotely) plausible in hellworld 2022. I'm sure someone can explain to me how Ukraine isn't Chechnya but I already agree. I just hope Putin isn't thinking it's business as usual.

The above is just something I worry about, it's not a prediction, and I know enough to know I'm not an expert and can't do hot takes.

What utterly terrifies me however is Putin putting "Ukraine has nukes" in his invasion speech like the world's worst imaginable Chekhov's gun. I could imagine Putin arranging a nuclear incident in Belarus, Donbas, or perhaps some part of Russia he considers disloyal to "justify" making Pripyat the least radioactive city in Ukraine. I can only hope that in such a scenario all of those involved in performing such a task understand just how much their life is worth as a witness to such an atrocity and take corrective, dare I say heroic action to prevent such a plan coming to fruition. The world needs no more Hiroshimas; Russia doesn't need their first.

In our last conversation my irl Proud Christian Mom was trying to explain that Putin's invasion speech explains what the situation really is that the mainstream media don't want us to know. I told her that if someone told Evangelical Christians in the 80's that in 40 years they'd be supporting a murderous Russian dictator starting a war AND telling their children to believe their state propaganda, they would call you insane - but that's where we are and she should know better. She went silent for a bit after that. We still talk but I don't think there's any way to show her outside the bubble she's in, the one that was built for her and people like her. I loving hate what the world has done to mum. The support evangelical media both traditional and "social" has given Putin pre-dates the election of Trump and he has been portrayed as the primary defender of Christendom in the face of the New World Order for longer than many would suppose. Russian Fascists have a fifth column they may be expecting action from but what their numbers don't show is that it's mostly abused, dispirited housewives on telegram.

Mum did ask me where I get my news from, I didn't tell her the shameful truth about lurking in the CE thread, though I have explained it in the past as a bunch of cynical vets. But it's not the news that worries me so much as when history seems to become directly relevant to the present. I do think that this time Putin's rhetoric is largely what he now believes - that God's Own Russian Empire must be rebuilt over the bones of dead Slavic children. But in reality the only part of that which is happening is the latter. I'm holding out for any good news that hostilities can end but expectations are low.

Nuclear War
Nov 7, 2012

You're a pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty pretty girl

boop the snoot posted:

I apologize for making you seem pro-Russian. It wasn’t my intention. But implying people shouldn’t arm themselves because of something that *might* happen in the future, at the expense of defending their country *right now* is some western imperialist propaganda.

my bad for overreacting. like everyone else, my emotions are running high. i spent so many years in the ruins of the ME and should probably step away from my screen honestly

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

I love Reddit gatekeepers this and then leaves the loving active disinformation poo poo up

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Ukraine claiming to have repelled this morning's incursion by Russian special forces.

Things are apparently going poorly enough that Pooty Poot is waving his nuclear dick around.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f0873d0384b219d

SquirrelyPSU
May 27, 2003


Jasper Tin Neck posted:

The opposition leader Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya went all in.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1497583706038484996

This feels like a big deal?

Cythereal
Nov 8, 2009

I love the potoo,
and the potoo loves you.
Welcome back, Germany.

https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/1497882230735179782?s=20&t=WKurYViL0iyZNTbgbPTcZg

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016

Nuclear War posted:

my bad for overreacting. like everyone else, my emotions are running high. i spent so many years in the ruins of the ME and should probably step away from my screen honestly

You’re not overreacting. You don’t want violence. You’re perfectreacting.

mmtt
May 8, 2009
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1497922873289326595

Posturing or Mad Man strategy?

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

bone shaking.
soul baking.
It’s head spinning how some threads on this forum have declared the Russians have already won while others are saying Russia is completely stymied. Twitter accounts claiming the same image of captured soldiers are russian and ukranian.

It’s hard to discern what’s really going on.

Kazinsal
Dec 13, 2011
alright listen pooty-poot, I've got a week of work left before a week of vacation and I plan on binge-watching the whole of Farscape over the next fourteen days. can you at least do me the decency of holding off for at least that long before you decide to launch SS-18 Satan, hallowed be his name? namaste

SquirrelyPSU
May 27, 2003


Kazinsal posted:

alright listen pooty-poot, I've got a week of work left before a week of vacation and I plan on binge-watching the whole of Farscape over the next fourteen days. can you at least do me the decency of holding off for at least that long before you decide to launch SS-18 Satan, hallowed be his name? namaste

Same fam

psydude
Apr 1, 2008


Probably trying to scare Germany into blocking the ECB's moves to freeze Russian foreign currency reserves. Germans hate two things: noise, and anything with the word nuclear in it.

e: Here's an article about why the currency reserve issue is an existential threat to Russia's economy:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-russian-sanctions-work/622940/

psydude fucked around with this message at 14:46 on Feb 27, 2022

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016

Mr. Nice! posted:

It’s head spinning how some threads on this forum have declared the Russians have already won while others are saying Russia is completely stymied. Twitter accounts claiming the same image of captured soldiers are russian and ukranian.

It’s hard to discern what’s really going on.

it's very frustrating!

Terrifying Effigies
Oct 22, 2008

Problems look mighty small from 150 miles up.

SquirrelyPSU posted:

This feels like a big deal?

Belarus has had a government in exile for the last 102 years so it's not like there haven't been challengers to Lukashenka's rule, but it is telling how more voices are getting louder against both him and Putin.

It looks like Russia tried going into Kharkiv this morning with unsupported infantry for some reason, doesn't seem to have turned out well for them.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497811505806553092?cxt=HHwWiMC9gZ_opckpAAAA

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1497823963992440832?cxt=HHwWgICy3bO9q8kpAAAA

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497843560581902338?cxt=HHwWhMC52YmytMkpAAAA

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497858860052267011?cxt=HHwWhoCy0c-su8kpAAAA

Terrifying Effigies fucked around with this message at 14:51 on Feb 27, 2022

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Mr. Nice! posted:

It’s hard to discern what’s really going on.

About all we know is that the invasion just isn't going Russia's way because they simply don't have the cities yet. Everything else is war-foggy/propaganda to some extent, but we keep seeing poo poo like this happen:

https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1497915611250405381?t=uWLBWMPdZSw8KdDEm8EWUg&s=19

SquirrelyPSU
May 27, 2003


Terrifying Effigies posted:

Belarus has had a government in exile for the last 102 years so it's not like there haven't been challengers to Lukashenka's rule, but it is telling how more voices are getting louder against both him and Putin.

Thank you for the clarification.

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MonkeyLibFront
Feb 26, 2003
Where's the cake?

Kazinsal posted:

alright listen pooty-poot, I've got a week of work left before a week of vacation and I plan on binge-watching the whole of Farscape over the next fourteen days. can you at least do me the decency of holding off for at least that long before you decide to launch SS-18 Satan, hallowed be his name? namaste

I'm in the last few months of my deployment to NATO eFP, he needs to calm his tits.

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