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(Thread IKs: fart simpson)
 
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Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

Al-Saqr posted:

i have bad news for American media, zelenskys gonna sue for peace and give putin most if not everything he asks for. let’s see how much they’ll hate zelensky for this lol

Wow, President Prokopenko!

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Often Abbreviated
Dec 19, 2017

1st Severia Tank Brigade
"Ghosts of Honcharivske"

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

Ukrainians are suffering immensely, what do you mean?

The C-SPAM take of "The Ukrainian army has obviously been annihilated" is as embarrassing as the D&D "The Russian conscripts have been vanquished at the gates". Every war is based on assuming your enemy is much weaker than they are and will fold quickly and everyone falls for the same poo poo over and over again.

Tulip
Jun 3, 2008

yeah thats pretty good


Blarghalt posted:

The army, maybe. Volksstrum tactics pretty much never work, as they'll implode under even a moderately disciplined foe every single time, and we're already seeing Ukrainians apparently lynching each other because the war panic about Russian saboteurs is spreading like wildfire. poo poo's gone south. I understand holding on, but it's up to Zelensky and the Ukrainian people to decide what they're willing to lose.

I'm still pretty dubious about this being some sort of Volkssturm thing mostly because "hand out guns to everybody" is for the last 30 years an extremely common prelude not to volkssturm but to "laying the groundwork for insurgency" and isn't just a common play for a smaller power on the defensive, it's basically the play


i've also never been quite clear on this - are the guns being handed out as part of a central strategy or is being done on the initiative of specific groups? like i could see this being something that central command doesn't really approve of while some right wing nutjobs are going "hell yeah go shoot your neighbors"

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



Frosted Flake posted:

Sign Minsk II

What is your prediction for how well things would have gone for Ukraine had they signed Minsk II and done everything Russia wanted since 2015?

My pithy answer, based on extensive research into completely unrelated subjects, is "better than today" and also there wouldn't be COVID because reasons.

Death By The Blues
Oct 30, 2011
Russia has apparently took Manhush right outside Mariupol, they are getting really close

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1497957054522273792

Tulip
Jun 3, 2008

yeah thats pretty good


Al-Saqr posted:

i have bad news for American media, zelenskys gonna sue for peace and give putin most if not everything he asks for. let’s see how much they’ll hate zelensky for this lol

i think he'll run to america and become a weird political celebrity like the shah

Chonchon
Dec 16, 2013


Pretty cool that the pro-Ukraine stuff is basic bitch timewasters like DDoS, and the Russian stuff is serious poo poo

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

(and can't post for 20 days!)

Frog Act posted:

why are these dudes just in fancy technicals and not, like, BMPs

Kadyrovtsy are paramilitaries, so even if they get massive amounts of financial support from Russia they're technically not a part of the army. So they have to source their own equipment like any other paramilitary group.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

vuk83 posted:

They signed Minsk II Russia broke it?
There entire field army isn't destroyed or paralysed, their capital isn't surrounded?

lol adorable

Blarghalt
May 19, 2010

Tulip posted:

I'm still pretty dubious about this being some sort of Volkssturm thing mostly because "hand out guns to everybody" is for the last 30 years an extremely common prelude not to volkssturm but to "laying the groundwork for insurgency" and isn't just a common play for a smaller power on the defensive, it's basically the play


i've also never been quite clear on this - are the guns being handed out as part of a central strategy or is being done on the initiative of specific groups? like i could see this being something that central command doesn't really approve of while some right wing nutjobs are going "hell yeah go shoot your neighbors"

Right, but an insurgency for what? Unless they believe Russia's going to annex the whole of Ukraine or leave behind troops to enforce the treaty.

mycomancy
Oct 16, 2016
I'm getting ready to go to the grocery, should I look for potassium iodide tablets?

DeeEmTee
Jan 29, 2005

Often Abbreviated posted:

The C-SPAM take of "The Ukrainian army has obviously been annihilated" is as embarrassing as the D&D "The Russian conscripts have been vanquished at the gates". Every war is based on assuming your enemy is much weaker than they are and will fold quickly and everyone falls for the same poo poo over and over again.

it’s loving embarrassing to watch people brainwash themselves in real time

vuk83
Oct 9, 2012

Blarghalt posted:

The army, maybe. Volksstrum tactics pretty much never work, as they'll implode under even a moderately disciplined foe every single time, and we're already seeing Ukrainians apparently lynching each other because the war panic about Russian saboteurs is spreading like wildfire. poo poo's gone south. I understand holding on, but it's up to Zelensky and the Ukrainian people to decide what they're willing to lose.

But there are no reliable indications as of now that the Russian army is a "moderately disciplined foe".
There seems to be a pretty big lack of basic soldiering skills, example a lot of units cut off on their own just loving about.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Often Abbreviated posted:

The C-SPAM take of "The Ukrainian army has obviously been annihilated" is as embarrassing as the D&D "The Russian conscripts have been vanquished at the gates". Every war is based on assuming your enemy is much weaker than they are and will fold quickly and everyone falls for the same poo poo over and over again.

It doesn’t have not be annihilated, it’s not shaping operations, not conducting its own, and didn’t defend or relieve the capital.

The things armies are for.

kronix
Jul 1, 2004

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

Ever tried standing up to a thermobaric rocket, or is the hardest thing you ever stood up to was your mom?

So much projection.

I still don’t get what this has to do with why you don’t understand why other people won’t just lay down and let Putin wreck their poo poo.

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

Asproigerosis posted:

Russians aren't slaughtering ukrainians left and right for likely the same reason american troops wouldn't be cutting down canadians when we finally annex them for shale oil.

lmao an American with a gun is the most bloody psychopath to set foot on god’s green earth

PoontifexMacksimus
Feb 14, 2012


:eyepop: :popeye:

HallelujahLee
May 3, 2009

vuk83 posted:

But there are no reliable indications

thats where you need to stop

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Often Abbreviated posted:

The C-SPAM take of "The Ukrainian army has obviously been annihilated" is as embarrassing as the D&D "The Russian conscripts have been vanquished at the gates". Every war is based on assuming your enemy is much weaker than they are and will fold quickly and everyone falls for the same poo poo over and over again.

They were handing out rifles to civilians on day 3 of an invasion. That is not a good sign.

lumpentroll
Mar 4, 2020

Raskolnikov38 posted:

lmao an American with a gun is the most bloody psychopath to set foot on god’s green earth

Blarghalt
May 19, 2010

vuk83 posted:

But there are no reliable indications as of now that the Russian army is a "moderately disciplined foe".
There seems to be a pretty big lack of basic soldiering skills, example a lot of units cut off on their own just loving about.

I probably used too strong a word there. They tend to implode under forces that have literally any military training at all.

Often Abbreviated
Dec 19, 2017

1st Severia Tank Brigade
"Ghosts of Honcharivske"

Frosted Flake posted:

It doesn’t have not be annihilated, it’s not shaping operations, not conducting its own, and didn’t defend or relieve the capital.

The things armies are for.

The part you are missing here is the prefix "Based on all the intelligence I have gleaned through reading Twitter posts, I have determined that:"

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
Whether or not you would pick up a gun and fight for your country is on you

Egging people on who are not you to do that to satisfy your own sense of nationalism loving sucks

Comrade Koba
Jul 2, 2007

Androies posted:

No, Kadyrov is not in Ukraine for fucks sake. This is just people mixing bearded guys up.

yeah I figured, just had to ask since ramzan is such a weird caricature of a person I could half-expect him to lead the charge on mariupol wearing that stupid knight outfit he had on in the youtube clip someone posted a few pages back.



ah, the islam understanders :allears:

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016

Blarghalt posted:

Right, but an insurgency for what? Unless they believe Russia's going to annex the whole of Ukraine or leave behind troops to enforce the treaty.

their country is being invaded

are you really asking what an insurgency would be for

Murderion
Oct 4, 2009

2019. New York is in ruins. The global economy is spiralling. Cyborgs rule over poisoned wastes.

The only time that's left is
FUN TIME

Surely Putin is doomed if he can't completely overrun a large country in *checks watch* four days.

A quick Wikipedia check puts the 2003 Iraq invasion at 20-25 days, and about the same for Afghanistan 2001, fwiw.

HallelujahLee
May 3, 2009

gradenko_2000 posted:

Whether or not you would pick up a gun and fight for your country is on you

Egging people on who are not you to do that to satisfy your own sense of nationalism loving sucks

KaptainKrunk
Feb 6, 2006


Tulip posted:

I'm still pretty dubious about this being some sort of Volkssturm thing mostly because "hand out guns to everybody" is for the last 30 years an extremely common prelude not to volkssturm but to "laying the groundwork for insurgency" and isn't just a common play for a smaller power on the defensive, it's basically the play


i've also never been quite clear on this - are the guns being handed out as part of a central strategy or is being done on the initiative of specific groups? like i could see this being something that central command doesn't really approve of while some right wing nutjobs are going "hell yeah go shoot your neighbors"

insurgencies are carried out by ex-military members, militias, clans - pretty much entities with some sort of political and organizational coherence (ex-Iraqi army supplemented by Baathists, foreign fighters, Taliban, Vietcong, FARC, what have you).

Handing out guns to civilians with limited training en masse does not an insurgency make.

Death By The Blues
Oct 30, 2011
Rumours are rumbling that Azov is placing weapons in civilian populations and are using human shields

https://twitter.com/oulosP/status/1497958151945129995

TheMightyBoops
Nov 1, 2016

Chonchon posted:

Pretty cool that the pro-Ukraine stuff is basic bitch timewasters like DDoS, and the Russian stuff is serious poo poo

yeah, Sandworm is the group that completely totaled Maersk and stopped all operations there and completely hosed up all of Ukraine through hacked Ukrainian tax software.

They have done some legit scary poo poo.

genericnick
Dec 26, 2012

Frosted Flake posted:

Yep. Based on Russian speakers being gunned down as saboteurs now while the Ukrainian people apparently think they’re winning, Zelensky better hand over Azov and Right Sector. There is no way that defeated fascists won’t break off the “stab in the back” knob at 11.

I think you’re right that ongoing civil war and sectarian conflict are extremely possible and the loving head of the CIA anticipating that in 2008 is another thing clouding US motivations here.

I mean, if the Ukrainian Nationalist Myth is the pure homeland is despoiled by Polish/Jewish/Russian colonists, and in the last war their insurgent army massacred the first two…

Who do you think they are going to blame this time?
Yeah, it's going to get really ugly. Even moreso than usual.
Since you're here, what was the approximate scale that was expected for the big USSR war? If I' remember right, the highest estimate for the Russian invasion force is about 190k? Of whom not all have entered the country?

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

boop the snoot posted:

their country is being invaded

are you really asking what an insurgency would be for

An insurgency necessitates that the invader remains in the territory to be subject to the insurgent's reprisals rather than pulling out after achieving their goals, which we're not sure will be the case at this point in time.

spacemang_spliff
Nov 29, 2014

wide pickle

vuk83 posted:

They signed Minsk II Russia broke it?
There entire field army isn't destroyed or paralysed, their capital isn't surrounded?

when did Ukraine sign Minsk II

boop the snoot
Jun 3, 2016

Horseshoe theory posted:

An insurgency necessitates that the invader remains in the territory to be subject to the insurgent's reprisals rather than pulling out after achieving their goals, which we're not sure will be the case at this point in time.

again I ask, are you really wondering what an insurgency would be for during an invasion?

Freezer
Apr 20, 2001

The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.
Mariupol looks like it's gonna get very hot, very soon. I hope at least some civilians have evacuated.

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

lol this shithead lib cartoonist again

speng31b
May 8, 2010

Watching people realize about the Nazis in realtime on Twitter is wild

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

vuk83 posted:

They signed Minsk II Russia broke it?
There entire field army isn't destroyed or paralysed, their capital isn't surrounded?

i have bad news for you regarding their army and capital and they also didn’t sign Minsk 2 lol idiot

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Freezer posted:

Mariupol looks like it's gonna get very hot, very soon. I hope at least some civilians have evacuated.

They've been handed rifles and molotovs and told they stand any sort of chance against modern infantry. I hope to God their animal brain overrides their man brain and they just hide.

Edit: not calling anyone an animal, just hoping they listen to their fear response.

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Omon Ra
Nov 1, 2020
peanus

VomitOnLino posted:

love to die for an entirely made-up concept such as "nation states"
my brain is also very big
All concepts are made-up.

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