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Concerned Citizen posted:No, it is definitely still true. One important aspect is that Ukraine must defend every axis of the attack to prevent a strategic collapse. They aren't. While Russian losses are mounting in Kyiv and Kharkiv, the situation in Mariupol is critical. The destruction of Ukrainian forces there, the best equipped and most experienced in their military, will leave the rest of the country effectively indefensible. What is true is that Russia may be forced into hard urban fighting in Kyiv and Kharkiv, which could take weeks or months to resolve. But Russia is a massive country that has chosen, perhaps due to a strategic miscalculation, to commit a relatively small portion of its force to this war. If they are determined to win, they can. It's only a question of what price they are willing to pay in order to do so. Right now it's what Putin is willing to pay, but there may be a point when the people actually paying the price may have something to say about it.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:41
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punishedkissinger posted:I think it's pretty clear that the West was working as hard as possible to avoid Russia doing any of this though. It's incredibly bad for the world economy and the region. I will say that I don't think Western cynicism was universal and I think Macron in particular is a man who was interested in peace throughout, and Putin wiped his rear end with Macron's diplomacy. Given that Macron isn't the leader of NATO, I can see why Putin might have felt it was a waste of time to engage (or he may have been set on invasion regardless of diplomacy and I was wrong the whole time about prospects for negotiation--we may never know), but I think that sort of humiliation is probably not helping Russia when it comes to Western unity on sanctions now.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:43
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Have Some Flowers! posted:Have we had any verified 'proof of life' type videos from Pres Zelenskyy recently? Yeah he's posting on telegram. https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/746
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Feb 27, 2022 17:44
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punishedkissinger posted:I think it's pretty clear that the West was working as hard as possible to avoid Russia doing any of this though. It's incredibly bad for the world economy and the region. Yeah only took us a few days to get back to 'when every voice in the West was shouting 'don't start a war' actually they were secretly hoping Putin would'.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:44
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Tomn posted:I think we might be talking past each other somehow. Let's start over. quote:Hell, with Putin's current position it's an open question how long he'll be able to remain in power even
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Feb 27, 2022 17:44
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Concerned Citizen posted:No, it is definitely still true. One important aspect is that Ukraine must defend every axis of the attack to prevent a strategic collapse. They aren't. While Russian losses are mounting in Kyiv and Kharkiv, the situation in Mariupol is critical. The destruction of Ukrainian forces there, the best equipped and most experienced in their military, will leave the rest of the country effectively indefensible. What is true is that Russia may be forced into hard urban fighting in Kyiv and Kharkiv, which could take weeks or months to resolve. But Russia is a massive country that has chosen, perhaps due to a strategic miscalculation, to commit a relatively small portion of its force to this war. If they are determined to win, they can. It's only a question of what price they are willing to pay in order to do so. This feels a whole lot like the people in 2003 saying that there is no way the USA could lose in Iraq, because you just assume that being the more powerful/larger nation is an automatic trump card and has a much larger military than what is currently engaged.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:44
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https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1497974377706622983?s=20&t=v1BD0KK983D7uuZ9TTXMrg
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Feb 27, 2022 17:46
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LanceHunter posted:This feels a whole lot like the people in 2003 saying that there is no way the USA could lose in Iraq, because you just assume that being the more powerful/larger nation is an automatic trump card and has a much larger military than what is currently engaged.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:47
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LanceHunter posted:This feels a whole lot like the people in 2003 saying that there is no way the USA could lose in Iraq, because you just assume that being the more powerful/larger nation is an automatic trump card and has a much larger military than what is currently engaged. Notably, the US completely destroyed the Iraqi military and won the war in a matter of days. I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Russia ended up in a long, horrific occupation.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:48
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Concerned Citizen posted:No, it is definitely still true. One important aspect is that Ukraine must defend every axis of the attack to prevent a strategic collapse. They aren't. While Russian losses are mounting in Kyiv and Kharkiv, the situation in Mariupol is critical. The destruction of Ukrainian forces there, the best equipped and most experienced in their military, will leave the rest of the country effectively indefensible. What is true is that Russia may be forced into hard urban fighting in Kyiv and Kharkiv, which could take weeks or months to resolve. But Russia is a massive country that has chosen, perhaps due to a strategic miscalculation, to commit a relatively small portion of its force to this war. If they are determined to win, they can. It's only a question of what price they are willing to pay in order to do so. That's a lot of assumptions you make there.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:49
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Do we have any information on whether this attack has swayed people away from right wing Putin friendly groups in the US/Western Europe? I feel like there’s a slow moving unity coming through where everyone’s waking up from their collective neo civil war mentality and realizing that what Putin is doing is crazy and needs to be resisted.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:49
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497977244324614151?s=20&t=v1BD0KK983D7uuZ9TTXMrg Maybe Russian mothers are starting to really wonder where their children are.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:51
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Putin has lost. He can’t win in Ukraine and the sanctions will destroy his economy and his support amongst the elite in Russia. I don’t know what will happen when he finds that out, but I’m very much worried now.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:51
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LanceHunter posted:This feels a whole lot like the people in 2003 saying that there is no way the USA could lose in Iraq, because you just assume that being the more powerful/larger nation is an automatic trump card and has a much larger military than what is currently engaged. USA won an absolutely crushing victory in Iraq 2003.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:52
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Tuna-Fish posted:Someone needs to put together a bar chart comparing the GDP of Russia + Belarus next to the GDP of all the nations currently supplying Ukraine. This seemed like an interesting idea and I went ahead with it:  In the blue corner - Russia + Belarus In the red corner - NATO countries in the top 50 by GDP (I couldn't bother to scan more), without US. USA doubles that. EDIT: I actually hosed up slightly, I was scanning only for European countries and missed Canada, add another blue sized bar to the red team. mmkay fucked around with this message at 18:06 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 17:52
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Vahakyla posted:It's frustrating because I think the intentions are pure, and it seems to propagate so well among their circles, too. As opposed to the massive step forward in progress would be increased military budgets and arms build up? It's flat out not a good thing, peace is good. War is bad, Europe shifting resources to improving it's war footing isn't good, it's not something to celebrate. This is a bad thing, war is a bad thing, Ukraine giving arms to people to fight a savage street to street fight is a bad thing. You can argue all these things are necessary but no one would argue that they are good and great. Similarly you can recognize that this is all awful and a step backward globally without "tutt tutting people fighting for their freedoms". You can support Ukraine without becoming horny for war.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:52
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Comstar posted:Putin has lost. He cash it win in Ukraine and the sanctions will destroy his economy and his support amongst the elite in Russia. Tomorrow will be a bloodbath on the economy front.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:52
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Zeinin posted:I wanna understand why Russia doesn't have air superiority. The reason is pretty simple, the Ukrainian Air Defense network is still almost entirely operational. Their short and medium range AA systems are extremely portable. They likely are using a mixture of spotters and intelligence instead of actively using their radar to keep themselves hidden only turning them on when it is time to engage, then rapidly turning everything off after a launch and moving to another position. You couple that is MANPADs seemingly all over the theater it is basically asking most aircraft to be sitting ducks, especially those that can not fly above MANPADs range. If you remember with the first Gulf War there was a coordinated attack on the entire Iraqi air defense network all at once; with Stealth aircraft hitting the targets deep in country and attack helicopters and wild weasel aircraft hitting targets on the borders. Russia doesn't have those capabilities even today and the Ukrainians knew of the invasion for many, many weeks and moved their AA to more defendable positions.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:53
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https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1497973334847414278 EU will just bankroll the Ukrainian defence, very nice
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Feb 27, 2022 17:53
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497977244324614151?s=20&t=v1BD0KK983D7uuZ9TTXMrg They being processed through the cremation trucks. The only mother's getting a body back are the ones whose son's died behind Ukr lines.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:54
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Zeinin posted:Where can one find some good Clancyposts on all this? I wanna understand why Russia doesn't have air superiority. There are some twitter threads going around that give partial explanations. The best theories seem to be some combination of "the Russian military is FAR more hollowed out by institutional rot than anyone including Putin had realized," "Russian organizational doctrine mixes air and ground units in a way that has made it difficult to form a coherent overall air dominance strategy" and "Ukraine has far, ffar better air defense than anyone realized." Overall this war seems to be indicating that the manpad and javelin and drone are doing to mechanized armor and close air support what the machine gun did to horse cavalry.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:55
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Zhanism posted:They being processed through the cremation trucks. The only mother's getting a body back are the ones whose son's died behind Ukr lines. Has there ever been any corrobation of this beyond that one article? I'm skeptical. If Ukrainians had seen it or destroyed one it would be propagated en masse. Plus occams razor applied to the Russian army incompetence we are witnessing. Russia losing its babusya confidence is a real problem imo.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:56
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Zelensky speaking now. Paying 100k hrv to soldiers. I'm probably off This is in the "insane" territory if it is true or holds up. In american dollars, Ukrainian privates have made around 300 monthly, NCOs around 500, and officers 600 and up or so. This payraise would be a tenfold payraise, making ukrainian soldies upper end of middle class, equivalent to making some 150k a year in the US.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:56
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Patrocclesiastes posted:https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1497973334847414278 This doesn't seem to include any announcements of further support for Ukrainian military.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:57
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MikeC posted:Combined this with the fact that Putin probably figured Germany was too dependant on Russian energy and would roadblock NATO attempts to help Ukraine so he rolled the dice. It should really be noted what Putin has achieved just now. Normally, German politics are boring and plodding. He managed to, within days, get Germany to abandon several long-standing foreign policy policies, get the largest opposition group to publicly declare support for sanctions that will inevitably heavily hit German industry (doubly so because Germany is heavily involved in both Ukraine and Russia), the loving liberal minister of finance indicated support for rapidly transforming how Germany uses energy, the CDU/CSU indicated support for circumventing their sacrosanct debt brake, the German military is going to be realigned for conventional warfare … And to top it off, the Greens, which arose out of the peace movement, will be part of a government that will triple its defense spending in 2022 and I'm fairly certain there won't be a revolt in the party base, unlike when the Greens were involved in the intervention in the Balkans. Getting all that to happen within days is insane.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:58
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I don't think this was posted yet, but it's interesting (thread moves fast, so I might have missed it): https://news.ru/politics/priznanie-suvereniteta-dnr-i-lnr-razdelilo-rossijskoe-obshestvo/ Basically in polling the annexation of Crimea had roughly 85-90% support in 2014, but recognizing the separatist republics only has roughly 45% approval with 40% against. As usual seniors with low education living in rural districts support it more than the young educated cohort living in urban areas. The polling was done pre-invasion by the Levada center, which is reputable organization.mmkay posted:This seemed like an interesting idea and I went ahead with it: These are nominal non-PPP adjusted figures it looks like though. You need to take PPP-adjustments GDP measures to do international comparisons of economies. Dante fucked around with this message at 18:03 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 17:58
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US has risen levels to DEFCON 3 to anticipate any fluid provocations from Russia.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:58
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Vahakyla posted:This is in the "insane" territory if it is true or holds up. I suspect it is not intended to be long term, but just for the duration of hostilities.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:58
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Patrocclesiastes posted:https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1497973334847414278 Making the oligarchs' jets into SIFs is a hilarious touch. gently caress them with a rusty claw hammer.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:58
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This doesn't seem to include any announcements of further support for Ukrainian military. https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1497972564634882048?t=mH5X0TEeuHbu7yCYcnS14w&s=19
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Feb 27, 2022 17:59
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Deteriorata posted:I suspect it is not intended to be long term, but just for the duration of hostilities. Imagine if a US soldier who makes 40,000 a year would suddenly make 400k, even just one year? After the war it's essentially another baby boom or a social class.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:59
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https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497945813330411527 these brainlets....... what the hell were they thinking
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Feb 27, 2022 17:59
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This doesn't seem to include any announcements of further support for Ukrainian military. I was watching over coffee so I'm fuzzy on bald guys name but he did say they are moving to find the Ukrainian defense. https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1497972564634882048?s=20&t=v1BD0KK983D7uuZ9TTXMrg
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Feb 27, 2022 17:59
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Vahakyla posted:Imagine if a US soldier who makes 40,000 a year would suddenly make 400k, even just one year? After the war it's essentially another baby boom or a social class. Or another bonus march.
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Feb 27, 2022 17:59
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MikeC posted:What would you propose? Rolling in tanks into Ukraine and evicting his forces from Ukrainian soil? He will use nuclear weapons at that point, you should take his warning at face value. I am not advocating for NATO intervention here, but I do not know what is with the assumptions people like to make that even men like Putin are absolutely willing to bring on the absolute destruction of their country, and possibly the world, to save face. It is honestly fear mongering to say Putin will use nuclear weapons over his Ukraine adventure.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:00
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Jarmak posted:We're not talking past each other, we understand Putin ascribes to a great powers war view. The great powers worldview is archaic, imperialist, trash and confining it to the dustbin of history should be a priority for anyone who isn't a fascist trying to relive the glory days. It's very funny to me that people who definitely describe themselves as Marxist are having a hard time imagining why lots of people who live in the pawns don't want to continue accepting a world order that works like a chess game.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:00
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youcallthatatwist posted:https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1497972564634882048?t=mH5X0TEeuHbu7yCYcnS14w&s=19 Shes Not Impressed posted:I was watching over coffee so I'm fuzzy on bald guys name but he did say they are moving to find the Ukrainian defense. Cheers, I'm just saying it wasn't in the thread I quoted. Also, I'm glad to see we're helping them that way.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:01
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TheEU are being surprisingly direct now. For the first time ever, the European Union will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons and other equipment to a country that is under attack. We are proposing a prohibition on all Russian-owned, Russian registered or Russian-controlled aircraft. This will apply to any plane owned, chartered or otherwise controlled by a Russian legal or natural person. So let me be very clear.Our airspace will be closed to every Russian plane – and that includes the private jets of oligarchs. Lukashenko's regime is complicit in this vicious attack against Ukraine. So we will hit Lukashenko's regime with a new package of sanctions. We will introduce restrictive measures against their most important sectors. This will stop their exports of products from mineral fuels to tobacco, wood and timber, cement, iron and steel. We will also extend to Belarus the export restrictions we introduced on dual-use goods for Russia. This will also avoid any risks of circumvention of our measures against Russia.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:01
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Zhanism posted:They being processed through the cremation trucks. The only mother's getting a body back are the ones whose son's died behind Ukr lines. That has to be one of the most genuinely hosed up things I've heard to do to bodies of soldiers, and worse yet your own loving people Don't even admit your losses or give the body back to the family for respect/ last rites What the gently caress
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Feb 27, 2022 18:01
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Stupid to even respond to Russia's idiotic saber rattling imo.
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