|
Ahmadinejad with the galaxy brain take. https://twitter.com/Ahmadinejad1956/status/1497997096066158596?t=r3mth5GGaUnxiZbvqIxyJg&s=19
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:20
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 20, 2024 19:20 |
|
|
We aren't even really hearing of pro Russian Ukrainian partisans doing business. Does that mean the whole half of Ukraine wanted to be Russian is bullshit?
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:21
|
|
|
Torrannor posted:The Russian's so far haven't caused major disruptions in Ukraine's telephone and internet infrastructure, so they are presumably still doing classical telephone polls, perhaps augmented with online polls. True, I guess. Still seems a bit weird to get a call on your cell phone in a bomb shelter in Kiev asking your opinion on current events.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:21
|
|
|
Edmund Lava posted:Putin successfully made Zelenskyy a national hero. Even if he does manage to kill him, it isn’t going to go in his favor Pretty shocking to see how the consensus about him has changed: https://twitter.com/BGrueskin/status/1497697588254212096
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:21
|
|
|
acidx posted:Ahmadinejad with the galaxy brain take. I like that he is basically iran’s trump but saner.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:22
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:You joke but I have an associate who is doing research in Ukr, now is an import time I look forward to many decades of social science research utilizing "lags of Russian invasion" as an IV instead of rainfall.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:22
|
|
|
Sir John Falstaff posted:Yeah, I guess my question is more how, really. Major cities still have power and phone service, and there’s still a huge portions of the country that hasn’t been affected by the war directly.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:22
|
|
|
To go even further on the Lend-Lease chat you can argue we were doing it even earlier if you take stuff like "Destroyers for Bases" into account.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:22
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:They can provide Polish or Romanian jets, which have huge equipment overlap with Ukraine. As I thought https://twitter.com/michaelbirnbaum/status/1498037892886712322
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:23
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:I like that he is basically iran’s trump but saner. He's a Holocaust denier fyi
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:23
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:Seems like Putin might have taken Kadyrov's advice This is going to get ugly quick
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:23
|
|
|
Shes Not Impressed posted:2nd slide of the PPT if you click on the link cited in the Tweet. Surprisingly, I don't speak Ukrainian.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:24
|
|
|
The reason he’s “ok” to send weapons is because that’s how both Russia and the West have chosen to wage war by proxy for decades - or, to put it more simply, Russia isn’t going to go to war with NATO over military hardware
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:24
|
|
|
The longer the fight goes the more war crimes have to be comittd to win it. Putin leveling cities will just exemplify the fight and add more and more sanctions to the list.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:25
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/humeyra_pamuk/status/1498046072710651910?s=20&t=diP6SebPuO4oMRTbJTPdMA https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1498045944004235269?s=20&t=diP6SebPuO4oMRTbJTPdMA Time to take the marshrutka.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:26
|
|
|
Shes Not Impressed posted:He's a Holocaust denier fyi Yep, never said he was not a piece of poo poo.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:26
|
|
|
Sir John Falstaff posted:Surprisingly, I don't speak Ukrainian. CATI wasn't even in Ukrainian.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:27
|
|
|
Sir John Falstaff posted:Surprisingly, I don't speak Ukrainian. Translate function works just fine though if all you care about is just making something comprehensible and not understanding literary subtleties.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:27
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:We aren't even really hearing of pro Russian Ukrainian partisans doing business. "Yes" The supposed "separatists" in Eastern Ukraine got rolled up quickly by the then-dysfunctional Ukrainian army up until the point regular Russian troops crossed the border to bail them out - there just weren't many of them. They consistently whined about not being able to recruit many Ukrainians.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:27
|
|
|
Dante posted:I'm somewhat amused by the thought of pollsters calling about presidential approval ratings at this time. I would like to see how they deal with selection issues lmao. They are stratifying on region, "type of residence" (I assume this is urban/rural), age, and sex to get an adult representative population. I assume Ukrainian census targets are decent. Given they're capturing age and sex they are probably ok in terms of differential non-response. Ideally they'd also stratify on ethnicity/national origin/maternal language but maybe given they aren't polling the Donbas/Crimea it doesn't matter? Phone poll, and given it's only three or four non-demographic questions it wouldn't take too long so we wouldn't worry about satisficing or differential attrition. N=2,000 is a little shady (there's no reason to stop at exactly 2,000, which might make you feel that the data isn't real). The other real thing you'd want to stratify on is political party supported in last election, assuming that there's some kind of latent ideological bent that would correlate with differential nonresponse, but I actually wouldn't trust recall given the events of the last few days. They don't report a design effect, but given they're only targeting four-ish variables I would assume it's pretty small. I'd feel comfortable believing the results are representative, and my bigger concern would be what if they didn't run the survey at all and it's completely fake and propaganda. I'd love to see their overall response rate compared to the previous iteration of the poll. That being said, this kind of RATF effect wouldn't be uncommon. Bush's first Gallup after 9/11 was 91% or so. Man Plan Canal fucked around with this message at 22:30 on Feb 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:27
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1497975994015227907 sorry if this has already been posted. if someone who speaks russian can verify the translation that would be cool because it's pretty good, even if the concept of a ship of people stuck at sea with dwindling supplies is unfunny horror.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:27
|
|
|
Upgrade posted:The reason he’s “ok” to send weapons is because that’s how both Russia and the West have chosen to wage war by proxy for decades - or, to put it more simply, Russia isn’t going to go to war with NATO over military hardware Yeah I think people automatically think of the soviet union in afghanistan but in Vietnam both the US and Soviets were providing tanks and planes etc. I mean not great that we're back in that sort of position but it didn't end in the apocalypse.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:28
|
|
|
Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/humeyra_pamuk/status/1498046072710651910?s=20&t=diP6SebPuO4oMRTbJTPdMA That's some solid "You can't fire me, I quit!" energy, right there.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:28
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/FlyingandLife/status/1498040555108024325?s=20&t=tuR02fWWVCTuTg0Oi3JeDg Just like this account, I’m watching these two flights that have restricted airspace ahead. Unless some special exception is made, they’ll need to turn around, refuel and… gently caress, I don’t know, go through Africa or round way around through Asia?
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:29
|
|
|
Cabbages and Kings posted:https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1497975994015227907 I think it's generally being treated as bullshit made by a georgian ship captain looking to get some social media clout
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:29
|
|
|
Shes Not Impressed posted:CATI wasn't even in Ukrainian. I don't typically try to read documents in languages I don't speak, particularly when a mistake in translation (e.g., "we did not use Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing because . . .") would make a meaningful difference. Are you always this aggro? Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 22:37 on Feb 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:29
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498036418299453441 russian financial system looking a little wobbly, crisis of confidence going on
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:30
|
|
|
Cabbages and Kings posted:https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1497975994015227907 Translation seems mostly accurate to me.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:30
|
|
|
Warbadger posted:Could be a TOS-1 going up. Saw that happen in Syria and it was BIIIIG. Probably an ammo dump, though. lol i was noticing that drone strikes often target MLR systems in particular, but I didn't realize there was so much potential for a secondary explosion, but that would make sense, particularly with the TOS
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:30
|
|
|
Randarkman posted:Yeah, for some comparison (that isn't the Beirut explosion), here's some rather famous footage from WWII of an American ammunition ship blowing up after being hit by a Kamikaze plane. I'm always both terrified and amazed by the Wilson Clouds in these situations
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:30
|
|
|
Mokotow posted:https://twitter.com/FlyingandLife/status/1498040555108024325?s=20&t=tuR02fWWVCTuTg0Oi3JeDg Surely if they were already in the air when the announcement was made they'll be allowed to land and then told to gently caress off back to russia asap.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:30
|
|
|
Shes Not Impressed posted:CATI wasn't even in Ukrainian.  Stop, they're already dead.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:31
|
|
|
What time do markets open in Russia?
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:31
|
|
|
Cabbages and Kings posted:https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1497975994015227907 It's omits some of the exchange but the omissions do not make it a misrepresentation. The translated parts are correct
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:31
|
|
|
Mokotow posted:https://twitter.com/FlyingandLife/status/1498040555108024325?s=20&t=tuR02fWWVCTuTg0Oi3JeDg You can fly over the pole.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:32
|
|
|
Warbadger posted:"Yes" There were competing videos from both sides when war was declared. The pro-Russian videos were about 20 guys and gas station fireworks. The Pro-Ukrainian demonstrations in the areas were hundreds of people.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:32
|
|
|
Discendo Vox posted:What time do markets open in Russia? It's about 10am. Still have a good 10 hours of fighting before poo poo hits the fan there. The ruble might go batshit though before then.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:33
|
|
|
Man Plan Canal posted:They are stratifying on region, "type of residence" (I assume this is urban/rural), age, and sex to get an adult representative population. I assume Ukrainian census targets are decent. Given they're capturing age and sex they are probably ok in terms of differential non-response. Ideally they'd also stratify on ethnicity/national origin/maternal language but maybe given they aren't polling the Donbas/Crimea it doesn't matter? Phone poll, and given it's only three or four non-demographic questions it wouldn't take too long so we wouldn't worry about satisficing or differential attrition. N=2,000 is a little shady (there's no reason to stop at exactly 2,000, which might make you feel that the data isn't real). The other real thing you'd want to stratify on is political party supported in last election, assuming that there's some kind of latent ideological bent that would correlate with differential nonresponse, but I actually wouldn't trust recall given the events of the last few days. They don't report a design effect, but given they're only targeting four-ish variables I would assume it's pretty small. It was a joke more in line of "well we assume the people not-in-shelter are representative for the people in shelter". There's no way to account for difference in response rates when a significant amount of your population is probably unavailable due to a war, it's the mother of all selection issues. I do empirical analysis for a living, a N of 2000 is perfectly acceptable for a presidential poll and when you order polls you generally order for a number of responses.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:33
|
|
|
Concerned Citizen posted:https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498036418299453441 Gonna be easier to get groceries in Lviv than Moscow.
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:33
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 20, 2024 19:20 |
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:lol i was noticing that drone strikes often target MLR systems in particular, but I didn't realize there was so much potential for a secondary explosion, but that would make sense, particularly with the TOS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGHBHJbQLbU is a clip of one blowing up in syria. It's bonkers
|
|
#
?
Feb 27, 2022 22:34
|
|
