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CelestialScribe posted:I know I'm not allowed to post in DND but I saw the news about Russia putting nuclear forces on alert. Is this just bullshit or is he actually doing something serious here? From level 1 to 2 on a 4 level readiness scale. It's saber rattling
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Feb 27, 2022 23:50
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Mokotow posted:
Kill....die..to him, it's all the same as long as it gets the job done.
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Feb 27, 2022 23:50
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Mokotow posted:
The Baba Yaga, hiding in the woods with a silenced AK and a Javelin..
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Feb 27, 2022 23:51
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Ammo dump looks like it was hit day 1 https://twitter.com/aleksanderrr_/status/1498057583650869251
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Feb 27, 2022 23:51
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CelestialScribe posted:I know I'm not allowed to post in DND but I saw the news about Russia putting nuclear forces on alert. Is this just bullshit or is he actually doing something serious here? Going from 1 to 2 on a 4 point scale, move along
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Feb 27, 2022 23:52
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FishBulbia posted:Ammo dump looks like it was hit day 1 Makes sense, while it would have made sense with how much of a mess it's been that Russia would have maybe missed an Ammo Dump somewhere, Ukraine not having it emptied out in the meantime would have been a bit strange in itself.
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Feb 27, 2022 23:55
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MikeC posted:I don't get why people hyperventilate reading this. This is not chilling, nor is it new. Nor is it proof that Putin lost his mind. This is exactly what Putin and the Russians have been saying since the Bucharest declaration of 2008. That it will go to any lengths, pay any price, to ensure that Ukraine remains outside the Western orbit. The messaging has been consistent ever since the mid-2000s. A crazy person doesn't repeatedly broadcast the same position on how he views Ukraine to anyone that will listen for 15 years and then finally acts on it. If you think this is new, or chilling, or somehow a sign that Putin has lost his marbles, you simply haven't been paying attention to international politics. Well I guess we better give gently caress what the people in Ukraine want, screw how Putin has antagonized them, oppressed them, and made war on them. He’s been saying what he wants for Ukraine since 2008. And the big man gets what he wants when it comes to his neighboring countries, sovereignty or United Nations charter be damned!
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Feb 27, 2022 23:55
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Mokotow posted:https://twitter.com/FlyingandLife/status/1498040555108024325?s=20&t=tuR02fWWVCTuTg0Oi3JeDg Guessing they called the number on the NOTAM (mentioned in the replies), because AFL111 is minutes away from the end of Maine now and hasn't diverted. I bet they'll make exceptions for any plane that left Russia before the NOTAM so they can return. Edit: Looks like AFL157 is indeed going around.
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Feb 27, 2022 23:55
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FishBulbia posted:Ammo dump looks like it was hit day 1 That would be really odd, multiple dash-cam videos from different angles surfaced within minutes of eachother tonight
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Feb 27, 2022 23:56
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Oh, don't mind this, just an oligarch waxing melancholy about the path not taken... https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1497944338457939973?s=20&t=kt5DAumCLhR96-cHYhwGwg
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Feb 27, 2022 23:57
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https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498060945070956551?s=21 Thread moves super fast so sorry if I missed this, but if I'm reading this right, does this mean you literally can't sell Russian stocks right now if you own them? How is anyone foreign ever going to buy them ever again then? Like, this has got to light the attractiveness of anything Russian as an investment on loving fire for anyone at all risk-averse. Like, I don't see anyone except like China buying Russian securities for a while if that's the case.
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Feb 27, 2022 23:57
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CPColin posted:Guessing they called the number on the NOTAM (mentioned in the replies), because AFL111 is minutes away from the end of Maine now and hasn't diverted. I bet they'll make exceptions for any plane that left Russia before the NOTAM so they can return. Hope some ATC hands them off with idi na huj
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Feb 27, 2022 23:57
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I have to admit that trying to understand everything that's going on is like taking an advanced college course. But my sentiment now is that Putin's an autocrat who is ultimately trying to make material gains for himself and his regime. If he really cared about the Russian people, his policies would be much different. All of the historical excuses and pretext are just noise and a successful invasion of Ukraine would just embolden him.
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Feb 27, 2022 23:58
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Fill Baptismal posted:Like, this has got to light the attractiveness of anything Russian as an investment on loving fire for anyone at all risk-averse. that part's already happened.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:00
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ZombieLenin posted:Well I guess we better give Is this war really breaking your brain this much? Is any position other than "Putin is insane" = "Give Putin anything and everything" in your head? Geopolitical mistakes were made over a decade ago. Ukrainians are now paying the price for it. The West has made its bed and now needs to pay the economic and military price to contain Russia for the next two decades.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:00
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Fill Baptismal posted:https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498060945070956551?s=21 It destroys the credibility of the exchange. All exchanges have rules to halt trading but they tend to be mechanical. Preventing specific categories of people from trading on the exchange without a specific reason is suicide for the exchange. Foreigners will not buy Russian securities as a result of this unless the regime changes, essentially. Or Russian securities at some point look like a good deal even with an insane "highly untrustworthy" risk premium priced in.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:01
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Paracausal posted:https://twitter.com/PutinIsAVirus/status/1498013700543983619 I cant believe Russia has fallen for Ukrainian propaganda like this!
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Feb 28, 2022 00:02
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Young Freud posted:Oh, don't mind this, just an oligarch waxing melancholy about the path not taken... When Russian generals start subtweeting Putin that’s how you’ll know poo poo’s getting real
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Feb 28, 2022 00:02
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MikeC posted:Is this war really breaking your brain this much? Is any position other than "Putin is insane" = "Give Putin anything and everything" in your head? You know Putin has agency, right?
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Feb 28, 2022 00:02
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MikeC posted:Is this war really breaking your brain this much? Is any position other than "Putin is insane" = "Give Putin anything and everything" in your head?
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Feb 28, 2022 00:03
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:It destroys the credibility of the exchange. How much is something worth if you can't sell it?
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Feb 28, 2022 00:03
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Fill Baptismal posted:https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498060945070956551?s=21 He can do it sure, the impact is going to hurt Russia more than anyone else. In fact, no institutional investor will ever touch Russian securities again until the current leadership is gone if this is true. Which means, even if a Russia under Putin somehow gets out from under the sanctions, while he is president of the Russian Federation absolutely zero foreign investment will flow into Russia.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:03
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Tezzeract posted:I have to admit that trying to understand everything that's going on is like taking an advanced college course. But my sentiment now is that Putin's an autocrat who is ultimately trying to make material gains for himself and his regime. This entire crisis has been confusing for people who study the region as their job. It doesn't even make much sense from a purely self-interest standpoint for Putin, he's far more vulnerable now than he was before he set this all off. It might just be that he's so insulated from reality at this point he's making huge blunders. May you live in interesting times...
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Feb 28, 2022 00:04
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A better write up on the Cherkasy explosion. https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1498059980544438273
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Feb 28, 2022 00:04
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MikeC posted:Is this war really breaking your brain this much? Is any position other than "Putin is insane" = "Give Putin anything and everything" in your head? food and humanitarian aid isn't that expensive
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Feb 28, 2022 00:05
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Tezzeract posted:I have to admit that trying to understand everything that's going on is like taking an advanced college course. But my sentiment now is that Putin's an autocrat who is ultimately trying to make material gains for himself and his regime.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:06
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ZombieLenin posted:In fact, no institutional investor will ever touch Russian securities again until the current leadership is gone if this is true. I'm afraid you're severely underestimating greed and opportunism.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:07
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the popes toes posted:How much is something worth if you can't sell it? It's worth nothing. I mean it destroys the credibility of the exchange as an institution or mechanism, not that it destroys the value of individual holdings (which it also does, but that's a lot less important in the long run.) Business and finance are based on trust and credibility.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:07
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I don’t understand how much more in the way of supplies Ukraine can actually field in combat before the noose tightens completely around Kyiv. At some point isn’t NATO just handing sophisticated arms over to Russia to be captured, studied and countered? Like where are all these new mig 29s going to land, fuel and arm out of? How are you going to get stinger missiles and AT missiles to the front? Looking at the strategic situation unless a another army intervenes were in deep poo poo.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:07
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MikeC posted:Is this war really breaking your brain this much? Is any position other than "Putin is insane" = "Give Putin anything and everything" in your head? What mistake was made with Putin's Russia? That a soverign nation can decide they want to join NATO if they want? Why the gently caress does Putin get to make diplomatic or political decisions for other Eastern European nations? Because "the West" is mean to him? (Ignore buying all his oil and gas and investing in Russia) This is stupid. Putin forced this dumb poo poo because his brain broke and he wants to be the Restorer of Russia. That's it. It's hubris. Yeah that makes him not a rational actor.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:07
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Omon Ra posted:Putin is probably the richest person alive and has a personal nuclear-weapon state, he doesn't need any additional material gains. He wants to leave his mark in history. I mean, he’s doing it, he’s leaving the mark, just more of a poo poo stain really, to his surprise I’m sure
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Feb 28, 2022 00:08
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MikeC posted:Is this war really breaking your brain this much? Is any position other than "Putin is insane" = "Give Putin anything and everything" in your head? the west has made its bed? does russia have no control over its own destiny? why is it not Russia that has made its bed?
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Feb 28, 2022 00:08
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MikeC posted:Is this war really breaking your brain this much? Is any position other than "Putin is insane" = "Give Putin anything and everything" in your head? I can't believe this many days in there's still people willing to give the West heat for Putin's blatant revanchism and delusions of Empire. Nothing the West has done is even halfway approaching just cause for this response and they've more than demonstrated that they're willing to wear the cost of responding, but that should never be framed as "made its bed" bullshit.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:09
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MikeC posted:Is this war really breaking your brain this much? Is any position other than "Putin is insane" = "Give Putin anything and everything" in your head? Frankly, he is insane. It doesn’t matter what he said in 2008. Hitler wrote Mein Kampf and spelled out exactly his goals for Europe in 1925. It does not follow that when Hitler invaded Austria, Czechoslovakia, and Poland that these were not acts of a mad man. Nor does it follow that European powers should have thrown their hands up and said, “we should have worked harder to get Hitler something he would have been happy with to avoid war.” With autocrats like Putin or Hitler when the demand is territory or concessions from their neighbors, there is never enough you can give. See how well this worked out for the world.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:09
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ZombieLenin posted:Well I guess we better give Yeah, if Ukraine has been a must-have political objective for Russia for the past 15 years then Putin really screwed the pooch on diplomacy to get to this point. That's the flip side of realpolitik.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:09
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Nessus posted:What blows my own mind is that, granting that Russia has complex institutional pressures and historical nuances and no real reason to love the West that much in their higher echelons, do they not have control over their actions? At a certain point, this must be Putin's fault because Putin has been in charge for the last 15+ years. He could have followed different courses and he would not be having a war right now, and perhaps would have gained more. It wouldn't even have stopped him from stealing internally. This post shows that you didn't read the articles I posted and you are absolutely ignorant of Russian US/NATO/EU relations from the mid-90s to the mid 2000s. The Russians were almost all in with respect to getting into the West and NATO. Suffice to say he did try different courses of action and was rejected. In no way does it absolve him. I am posting to counter this ridiculous assertion that keeps coming up that Putin is insane. He is not, he sees the world differently than you and I do, and the West didn't do themselves any favors to get Putin see things their way.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:09
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https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1498072121360146438 Here we go!
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Feb 28, 2022 00:10
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ZombieLenin posted:He can do it sure, the impact is going to hurt Russia more than anyone else. In fact, no institutional investor will ever touch Russian securities again until the current leadership is gone if this is true. And like, this isn't an unpredictable reaction! People had to have told him that this would be the result! So either Putin is totally insulated from anyone with actual expertise willing to protest, or he (or the central bank's leadership) is worried about something far worse in the near term that makes this worth it.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:10
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Nosre posted:https://twitter.com/peedutuisk/status/1497310882069581824 maybe? This video kept popping back in my mind all day long today and I ended up deciding it was done by someone with both experience and talent in acting. All skills are valuable.
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Feb 28, 2022 00:10
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MikeC posted:Is this war really breaking your brain this much? Is any position other than "Putin is insane" = "Give Putin anything and everything" in your head? What geopolitical mistakes? Ukraine is a sovereign nation, regardless of what Putin or anyone else in the Russian government thinks. And NATO has not been actively attempting to integrate Ukraine into the alliance. At this point, the "geopolitical mistakes" have long since ceased being a valid concern and are not at all a justification for this invasion. You seem to be extremely concerned with justifying the actions that Russia is taking while ignoring the legality of said actions.
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