|
Paracausal posted:I can't believe this many days in there's still people willing to give the West heat for Putin's blatant revanchism and delusions of Empire. Nothing the West has done is even halfway approaching just cause for this response and they've more than demonstrated that they're willing to wear the cost of responding, but that should never be framed as "made its bed" bullshit. Nobody said anything about just cause. Actions have consequences. Doesn't matter if you think those consequences are just or fair or rational, they still happen.
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:11
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 21:13 |
|
|
Paracausal posted:I can't believe this many days in there's still people willing to give the West heat for Putin's blatant revanchism and delusions of Empire. Nothing the West has done is even halfway approaching just cause for this response and they've more than demonstrated that they're willing to wear the cost of responding, but that should never be framed as "made its bed" bullshit. If anything, the massive response to the invasion just goes to show how absolutely everyone is loving tired of Putin's poo poo.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:11
|
|
|
It’s impressive the lengths people will go to contort themselves and reality to fashion a narrative that absolves both Russia and Ukraine of agency and sagely lays the blame for everything that has unfolded at the Wests door.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:12
|
|
|
TheRat posted:I'm afraid you're severely underestimating greed and opportunism. I think you are underestimating the impact of things like BP being left holding 20% Rosneft while the Russian economy collapses on the risks institutional investors are willing to take. Do you know how much money BP, just as an example, is being set up to lose?
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:12
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:I don’t understand how much more in the way of supplies Ukraine can actually field in combat before the noose tightens completely around Kyiv. At some point isn’t NATO just handing sophisticated arms over to Russia to be captured, studied and countered? Assuming that some portion of the government and military command evacuated to Lviv prior to encirclement as a contingency plan for the president's capture/death, Kviv being captured wouldn't necessarily end the war and supply chains could still make it into Ukrainian hands.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:12
|
|
|
MikeC posted:This post shows that you didn't read the articles I posted and you are absolutely ignorant of Russian US/NATO/EU relations from the mid-90s to the mid 2000s. The Russians were almost all in with respect to getting into the West and NATO. Suffice to say he did try different courses of action and was rejected. In no way does it absolve him. I am posting to counter this ridiculous assertion that keeps coming up that Putin is insane. He is not, he sees the world differently than you and I do, and the West didn't do themselves any favors to get Putin see things their way. The problem is you’re discounting the influence of ideology and world view. No politician - including Putin - exists solely as an automaton making decisions based on logic.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:13
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:I don’t understand how much more in the way of supplies Ukraine can actually field in combat before the noose tightens completely around Kyiv. At some point isn’t NATO just handing sophisticated arms over to Russia to be captured, studied and countered? This isn't HoI, you don't have to trace a supply line from the capital to all of your forward units. Even if Kyiv is encircled and it's difficult to get weapons to Kyiv, you can still distribute weapons to the various formations throughout the country. You drive poo poo forward on a truck same as it always was since the invention of a truck. The planes are a different and slightly more challenging issue but I am sure they will land, fuel, and arm at whatever distributed bases the UkAF are currently using. The entire air force is not based in Kyiv. NATO is not distributing anything all that sophisticated. There's some value in being able to examine captured gear but the Russians have equally good ATGMs and MANPADs organically, and have certainly studied captured or acquired samples, as well as done battlefield assessments. The thing is, it's basically impossible to counter a tandem top-attack munition (ATGM) without making significant compromises (a hard kill system like Arena or Trophy that works really well at intercepting the missile, but also killing any poor legs that are nearby). It's also both simple and difficult to counteract UV and IR passive guidance on MANPADs.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:13
|
|
|
Any bets on how low it will go by market close in the US tomorrow?
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:14
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:I don’t understand how much more in the way of supplies Ukraine can actually field in combat before the noose tightens completely around Kyiv. At some point isn’t NATO just handing sophisticated arms over to Russia to be captured, studied and countered? Let’s separate a few things, put them on a timeline = first, there’s taking the coast, that’s a forgone conclusion, it’ll happen. Next there’s taking the cities in the East and up to Kiev - this can happen in a few weeks, but more than likely in a few months. Taking all of Ukraine - don’t count on it in ‘22. But now let’s focus on vocabulary - taking is not winning. Taking only means an occupation, that generates non-stop, ongoing attrition from partisans, hundreds of thousands of them. This will go on for years and frankly won’t end without genocide. All these weapons, big and small, will potentially be in use for months or years. Some will fall to Russians, sure, but we won’t see Russians weapons stocks suddenly being enlarged by all the western weapons pumped to Ukraine. Mokotow fucked around with this message at 00:18 on Feb 28, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:14
|
|
|
MikeC posted:The Russians were almost all in with respect to getting into the West and NATO. Outside of a single 21-year old article regarding the possibility of Russia someday joining NATO, there has never been anything else to substantiate this. But you keep pointing to this argument, via that same old article, every time Russia v. NATO comes up. Please find more sources that substantiate it beyond anything quoting said article, or otherwise refrain from making this argument.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:14
|
|
|
SaTaMaS posted:food and humanitarian aid isn't that expensive No but spending 2+% of GDP on military hardware every year is. Otherwise, the Germans wouldn't need to be changing their budget. SourKraut posted:You seem to be extremely concerned with justifying the actions that Russia is taking while ignoring the legality of said actions. Given the fact that I have not justified anything but merely given you the historical background to show the consistency in Putin's actions, I can only surmise that this is a 'you' problem. SourKraut posted:Outside of a single 21-year old article regarding the possibility of Russia someday joining NATO, there has never been anything else to substantiate this. But you keep pointing to this argument, via that same old article, every time Russia v. NATO comes up. I have not used the same article twice. Feel free to search up my post in the EE thread for a more in-depth look into the Russian outlook as to what a post-cold war world would have looked like.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:14
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:I don’t understand how much more in the way of supplies Ukraine can actually field in combat before the noose tightens completely around Kyiv. At some point isn’t NATO just handing sophisticated arms over to Russia to be captured, studied and countered? Ukraine isn't just Kiev. The west of the country is largely untouched and probably has the highest concentration of anti aircraft and anti tank weaponry anywhere on the planet.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:15
|
|
|
surf rock posted:Assuming that some portion of the government and military command evacuated to Lviv prior to encirclement as a contingency plan for the president's capture/death, Kviv being captured wouldn't necessarily end the war and supply chains could still make it into Ukrainian hands. Id put money down that at least some of the incoming supplies are diverting to Lviv for the eventuality.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:15
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:I don’t understand how much more in the way of supplies Ukraine can actually field in combat before the noose tightens completely around Kyiv. At some point isn’t NATO just handing sophisticated arms over to Russia to be captured, studied and countered? 1. the mig 29s are going to land, fuel, and arm out of the airfields that Ukraine is literally already flying MiG-29s and Su-24s out of 2. they'll drive them, in trucks, because the Russian Air Force actually isn't an omniscient menace considering that it hasn't been able to even destroy the Ukrainian Air Force which has 1980s vintage pieces of poo poo and is literally 5% as big as the Russian Air Force
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:15
|
|
|
MikeC posted:This post shows that you didn't read the articles I posted and you are absolutely ignorant of Russian US/NATO/EU relations from the mid-90s to the mid 2000s. The Russians were almost all in with respect to getting into the West and NATO. Suffice to say he did try different courses of action and was rejected. In no way does it absolve him. I am posting to counter this ridiculous assertion that keeps coming up that Putin is insane. He is not, he sees the world differently than you and I do, and the West didn't do themselves any favors to get Putin see things their way. Did you find kyiv on a map yet?
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:15
|
|
|
MikeC posted:This post shows that you didn't read the articles I posted and you are absolutely ignorant of Russian US/NATO/EU relations from the mid-90s to the mid 2000s. The Russians were almost all in with respect to getting into the West and NATO. Suffice to say he did try different courses of action and was rejected. In no way does it absolve him. I am posting to counter this ridiculous assertion that keeps coming up that Putin is insane. He is not, he sees the world differently than you and I do, and the West didn't do themselves any favors to get Putin see things their way. He has executed a geopolitical strategy over a decade+ and is now apparently loving it up at the last line, and it seems to me that most of the purported goals could have been accomplished, or their equivalents, in this timeframe, by means other than the ones which Putin pursued. Could the West have done things differently? Sure. Would this have changed Putin's strategy, or meant he retired an actual president instead of whatever he is now? Perhaps. But he is not a stimulus-response mechanism; NATO did not somehow compel him to try to march on Kyiv.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:16
|
|
|
Apparently Eastern Europe has to just accept that they have no control over their own sovereignty until Putin dies, because the West was mean to him and now all he can do is throw nuclear backed hissy fits from time to time Man that stand up swell guy Putin just can't catch a break!  Why the gently caress are "leftists" piling in here defending a loving billionare capitalist autocrat who has never furthered the goals of the workers of the world? 
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:17
|
|
|
The better WW2 analogy is Versailles. The west made a lot of mistakes, some well intentioned, some not, that lead to the early 90s being a profoundly traumatic era for both ordinary Russians and Russian elites, both of whom saw it, not totally unfairly, as a period of pronounced national humiliation. The chaos and poverty of that time is the foundational experience of a lot of the current generation of Russian leadership. Saying that the conditions of the treaty of Versailles set Germany weren't conducive to setting up a stable and democratic Germany doesn't in any way excuse any of the atrocities of that regime. Similarly, you can be clear eyed about the mistakes that the west made in the years following the fall of the wall without being a Kremlin apologist.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:17
|
|
|
ZombieLenin posted:I think you are underestimating the impact of things like BP being left holding 20% Rosneft while the Russian economy collapses on the risks institutional investors are willing to take. I would think that most of BP's ultimate loss was already priced in if they were able to sell on Monday. Someone has to be willing to buy it, and it would have been people who were willing to take a huge gamble that somehow everything will end up OK for Russia. That's still better than zero, but BP wasn't going to get whatever the value was a week ago.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:17
|
|
|
There's a liberal Russian YouTuber I follow (NFKRZ) who has been making IG stories and posts about slowly getting locked out of banks and stuff. Pretty interesting to see how it affects the average Russians and wonder if this will create more resentment towards the government or towards everyone else.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:17
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/AlexandreKrausz/status/1498034918785531919 The what.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:17
|
|
|
Kraftwerk posted:I don’t understand how much more in the way of supplies Ukraine can actually field in combat before the noose tightens completely around Kyiv. At some point isn’t NATO just handing sophisticated arms over to Russia to be captured, studied and countered? 1: Anything the Russians get from captured NATO stock is basically equivalent or at the very most SLIGHTLY more advanced than stuff they already have. The only exception really being the Javelin but even then it's not very much of a massive improvement over say the Kornet. This is nothing like say ISIL getting their hands on a cache of the things. 2: Resupply and rearmament is a bit iffy yes. Munitions is simple enough, you can just leave them at the border and let them get picked up and they just filter out wherever the Ukrainian Army (or the insurgency if it gets to that point) needs them. They've announced today a batch of AT and MANPADs at least got to Kharkiv, so a corridor there is still open at least, as to Kyiv, who knows. The jets though, who knows, there was a twitter post showing what looked like a makeshift airfield on a highway, (which such things was pretty much seen as a eventuality by pretty much all of Europe during the Cold War) so there's that. Getting them there depends, flying them across the border might be seen as provocation, could move them on trucks, but depending on the situation, they might be a massive target if they get caught.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:18
|
|
|
Fill Baptismal posted:The better WW2 analogy is Versailles. The west made a lot of mistakes, some well intentioned, some not, that lead to the early 90s being a profoundly traumatic era for both ordinary Russians and Russian elites, both of whom saw it, not totally unfairly, as a period of pronounced national humiliation. The chaos and poverty of that time is the foundational experience of a lot of the current generation of Russian leadership. Versailles was punishment, NATO is a defensive alliance
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:18
|
|
|
I do think MikeC is providing useful commentary about why Putin is doing what he is doing and some of the historical context, but I do think a lot of the generic conversation about "missed opportunities by the West" can get pretty close to apologia. I would be interested to hear about actual, specific, missed opportunities. I'm not really interested in hearing about post-facto ~vibes~
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:19
|
|
|
TulliusCicero posted:Why the gently caress are "leftists" piling in here defending a loving capitalist autocrat who has mever furthered the goals the workwrs of the world? A cleptocapitalist autocrat; and anyone defending Putin is defending fascism—full stop. If you are in this category and you consider yourself on the left maybe you should think on that for awhile.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:19
|
|
|
MikeC posted:No but spending 2+% of GDP on military hardware every year is. Otherwise, the Germans wouldn't need to be changing their budget. Germany is just regressing to the mean (finally)
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:20
|
|
|
That means it's dropped 50% since the war. For starters. I'm not even sure the CBR can defend the ruble? I suppose other non-sanctioned banks can, and Putin's energy is still being bought by Europe in dollars, so there's cash for that. But will the non-sanctioned Russian banks play along? Banks generally get awful pissy about commiting suicide so it'll be interesting.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:20
|
|
|
TulliusCicero posted:
Nobody is defending Puting, loving hell. Can we stop this dumb poo poo where anyone who tries to say anything other than "he's insane turbohitler pumped full of steroids and insanity drugs and will kill himself in 3 days" is accused of being pro Putin? It's really obnoxious.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:20
|
|
|
Nessus posted:Here, I will agree with you: Putin is not insane, in the sense of being deranged or out of control of his senses. I can agree with this. I think the invasion was just a weird decision too. You have 2 breakaway republics from which you can continually destabilize the country to the point where it can never meaningfully join NATO. But this war isn't over yet. He may yet achieve what he wants territorially. But I think he really counted on Germany holding out on NATO. This was a bad miscalculation on his end. This too is a bed that he will have to lie in.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:20
|
|
|
What I wouldn’t give to see just one of those 3 miles convoys strafed by a jet handed over merely hours ago
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:21
|
|
|
How is this not uh, like an alliance?
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:21
|
|
|
TulliusCicero posted:What mistake was made with Putin's Russia? That a soverign nation can decide they want to join NATO if they want? What is the decision of a sovereign nation today threatens the protection of mutually assured destruction tomorrow that Russia presently enjoys tomorrow.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:21
|
|
|
MikeC posted:Given the fact that I have not justified anything but merely given you the historical background to show the consistency in Putin's actions, I can only surmise that this is a 'you' problem. No, you keep trying to tie-in that NATO and the West are also to blame, for discussions that occurred over 13-years ago at a very early, non-binding state, for what Russia is currently involved in. Per your own sources, Putin is on the record as saying that Ukraine, in his view, is not even a country. This is not a view that was established by NATO, established by the West, etc. But it is this view that has ultimately supported the actions he has taken re: Ukraine, while using the West and NATO as a public justification to do so. I doubt that any of us question that NATO, the EU, etc., discussing the possibility of Ukraine joining, as being issues that Putin found unacceptable given the impact to Russia's sphere of influence. But again, it goes back to his pre-existing views on Ukraine, views that were held by Boris Yeltsin and others before Putin. This issue began long before the EU and NATO even slightly looked toward Ukraine.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:21
|
|
|
Honest question, how in the hell do we stop escalating from here on out with this war if it keeps going on?
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:21
|
|
|
Rigel posted:I would think that most of BP's ultimate loss was already priced in if they were able to sell on Monday. Someone has to be willing to buy it, and it would have been people who were willing to take a huge gamble that somehow everything will end up OK for Russia. That's still better than zero, but BP wasn't going to get whatever the value was a week ago. BP’s exit was asset-based, clearly described as non-financial, which I take means they are relinquishing their shares but keeping a corresponding value of material stock to offset, in this case I’d guess in fuel reserves.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:21
|
|
|
Upgrade posted:The problem is you’re discounting the influence of ideology and world view. No politician - including Putin - exists solely as an automaton making decisions based on logic. Agreed. As I read once “History is stranger then Fiction, cause Fiction is written to make sense.” Tons of powerful leaders make decisions based on emotions rather then logic even if it would be counterproductive to them. MonsterEnvy fucked around with this message at 01:07 on Feb 28, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:22
|
|
|
ZombieLenin posted:He can do it sure, the impact is going to hurt Russia more than anyone else. In fact, no institutional investor will ever touch Russian securities again until the current leadership is gone if this is true. I'll point to the recent history of crypto as evidence that I don't buy this.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:22
|
|
|
Blitz of 404 Error posted:How is this not uh, like an alliance? Like an union of some sort?
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:23
|
|
|
Willo567 posted:Honest question, how in the hell do we stop escalating from here on out with this war if it keeps going on? 
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:23
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 21:13 |
|
|
What on earth I literally don't understand how that's possible unless they're being launched from and operated by Polish pilots or whatever; how would they have even made it to a Ukrainian air field by now?
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2022 00:25
|
|