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Telsa Cola
Aug 19, 2011

No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface

Warad posted:

It is happening a bit sudden, it's only been a few hours in between the announcement they were getting them and the announcement that they're already on the way. (which happened right I was in the middle of my last post too!)

But yeah if I had to guess pilots that might have been sitting things out since their plane might have gotten knocked out in the initial bombardment just went to a nondescript Polish airfield, picked them up, and already on the way to wherever airstrip or highway the rest are hiding out now.

Realistically it probably already happened and the news was delayed. Giving a very specific time frame on a transfer like that would be pretty bad.

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Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

This message paid for by the Men's Wearhouse& Jos A Bank Lobbying Group

Cicero posted:

People can organize poo poo like this behind the scenes before they announce it to the world y’know

Ya this was probably in the works since Thursday.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

steinrokkan posted:

That tweet sounds like nonsense. No way would they fly these planes over the border to begin with. And there wasn't even enough time to repaint the livery, for crying out loud

planes are so freshly from poland that the glove compartments are still crammed full of kabanos

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Vietnom nom nom posted:

Matthew Perry got Ukraine invaded!

that mother fucker

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010
Ultra Carp
There was at least one Ukrainian Su-27 that landed in Romania on the first day of the conflict, so that's at least one plane and pilot they can give to Ukraine relatively quickly.

Brain65
Jan 19, 2012

TheRat posted:

Will they provide trained pilots too?

There's enough junk planes in Eastern Europe that the Ucrainian pilots can pilot for another 3 wars

Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

I can totally imagine Ukranian pilots taking delivery of these planes and joking amongst themselves about the various idiosyncrasies of the Romanian, Polish and East German pilots that had them before them.

biglads
Feb 21, 2007

I could've gone to Blatherwycke



Herstory Begins Now posted:

planes are so freshly from poland that the glove compartments are still crammed full of kabanos

Inoperable due to rosaries stuck in the throttle quadrant and rudder pedals

LionArcher
Mar 29, 2010


Fill Baptismal posted:

A short of shooting war escalation that I could see happening would be western countries using the Ukraine "international battalions" they announced as a way of laundering paramilitaries or special forces into the country.

Like suddenly a bunch of former military employed by "security contractors" decide that they are inspired to join the call and fight for Ukraine. Private citizens, nothing we can do. :shrug:

My gut tells me that’s exactly what’s happening. The folks who you really, really don’t want to come across in a battlefield.

ethanol
Jul 13, 2007



Kraftwerk posted:

I can totally imagine Ukranian pilots taking delivery of these planes and joking amongst themselves about the various idiosyncrasies of the Romanian, Polish and East German pilots that had them before them.

They’re probably hard at work taking off the translation labels

Or turning them upside down like will smith

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

OctaMurk posted:

do you think they made a snap decision right at the time of the tweet, and there was literally no preparation done for this beforehand?

Frankly I don't even believe the donor countries even had any significant number of these planes un-mothballed and in full working order, just ready to go. I'll believe it when I see those planes in Ukraine.

Warad
Aug 10, 2019



Telsa Cola posted:

Realistically it probably already happened and the news was delayed. Giving a very specific time frame on a transfer like that would be pretty bad.

True enough.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

biglads posted:

Inoperable due to rosaries stuck in the throttle quadrant and rudder pedals

Converted to run on molten Prince Polo

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Lead out in cuffs posted:

Yeah it's exactly this. Especially weapons like javelins and manpads that can be easily hidden by partisans and used in ambushes.

Totally agree re the partisan resistance too. This isn't Iraq, where the occupiers were deposing a tyrannical and unpopular dictator, and the vast majority of insurgents were fringe religious extremists. This is a people fighting for the survival of their nation. And there are a lot more people, and a lot more weapons. A Russian occupation will see more and more casualties, until either the Russian people get sick enough of it to rise up and depose Putin, or Putin takes the decision to start genociding Ukrainians.

The only hope for this war is that the rising up happens before that stage.

or the russians run out of money. wars aren't free.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Vietnom nom nom posted:

The problem is you're drawing arbitrary lines in the sand of history. I mean I could just as easily point to the scarring effects of 20+ million people dying in World War 2 for the USSR, or the deep apathy and resignation to having autocratic corrupt leaders due to never having anything but that.

You're basically saying "causality exists". That events have long term effects that ripple outwards through time. Well, no poo poo.

I mean I could just as easily say:

Matthew Perry opens Japan -> Japan humiliates Russia in a war -> Tsar's fall out of favor -> Revolution happens -> USSR

Matthew Perry got Ukraine invaded!

No, assurances were given. "Not a single inch eastward," said the US. Certainly it wasn't in what we might call a "treaty". But verbal assurances do mean something. And Gorby was ignored when he floated a Russian NATO relationship.

Not that I'm stanning. But there were indeed missed opportunities.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Mustard Iceman
Apr 8, 2015

Weak against ketchup

steinrokkan posted:

Frankly I don't even believe the donor countries even had any significant number of these planes un-mothballed and in full working order, just ready to go. I'll believe it when I see those planes in Ukraine.

They were in front line service for Ukraine, why would you be surprised that other ex-Warsaw countries would be using them?

kaaj
Jun 23, 2013

don't stop, carry on.

I'd not guess this would happen so fast. Even if Poland and other countries are sending older jets, they've got some of the US F16s stationed just in case any escalations. By the looks of it, those jets will be way more useful in Ukraine than where they currently are.

Fill Baptismal
Dec 15, 2008

LionArcher posted:

My gut tells me that’s exactly what’s happening. The folks who you really, really don’t want to come across in a battlefield.

To be clear, I doubt any significant amount of killing and fighting is going to be done by those people. This isn't a a video game where some sufficiently badass special forces can save the day.

But I could see former military from NATO countries who, wouldn't you know, happen to have the exact specific technical expertise and training needed to train the Ukrainians for the weapons that they just got who felt compelled to get answer the call.

cgeq
Jun 5, 2004

Blitz of 404 Error posted:

How is this not uh, like an alliance?

Don't take it personally. It's just business.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

steinrokkan posted:

Frankly I don't even believe the donor countries even had any significant number of these planes un-mothballed and in full working order, just ready to go. I'll believe it when I see those planes in Ukraine.

The Poles, Slovaks, and Bulgarians all have a non-zero number of MiG-29s ready to roll.

I wonder if AUSA still has a couple.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
Russian NATO membership is absurd for reasons I think should be obvious and have been discussed ad nauseam already. It's not a social club.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



The population of Ukraine might have more anti tank/ anti air weapon systems dispersed among them then any other country in the world right now

Have fun trying to "occupy" that

Nazzadan
Jun 22, 2016



Vietnom nom nom posted:



Matthew Perry opens Japan -> Japan humiliates Russia in a war -> Tsars fall out of favor -> Revolution happens -> USSR

Matthew Perry got Ukraine invaded!

Why didn't Joey stop him?

kaaj
Jun 23, 2013

don't stop, carry on.

steinrokkan posted:

Frankly I don't even believe the donor countries even had any significant number of these planes un-mothballed and in full working order, just ready to go. I'll believe it when I see those planes in Ukraine.

They do. It's anecdotal and I'm a random stranger from the Internet, but my home town is within 50km from one of the bases in Poland. Even in times of peace you could see both F16s and rarely other jets in the air. The chatter I heard from people I trust mentioned that the frequency of those flights was slowly increasing even before the invasion.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Mustard Iceman posted:

They were in front line service for Ukraine, why would you be surprised that other ex-Warsaw countries would be using them?

Because judging from my country and what I've seen of other Eastern European militaries, they are all extremely cheap and most of their inventory doesn't work without extensive maintenance because of it, especially the old stuff. Maybe Poland is an exception to some extent, but I'm very skeptical about this.

Warad
Aug 10, 2019



KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

The Poles, Slovaks, and Bulgarians all have a non-zero number of MiG-29s ready to roll.

I wonder if AUSA still has a couple.

Sadly all scrap or Museum pieces by now I think.

Now those Su-27s they were thought to have as well the "extras" still sitting in Groom Lake though...

i am a moron
Nov 12, 2020

"I think if there’s one thing we can all agree on it’s that Penn State and Michigan both suck and are garbage and it’s hilarious Michigan fans are freaking out thinking this is their natty window when they can’t even beat a B12 team in the playoffs lmao"

Lead out in cuffs posted:

Yeah it's exactly this. Especially weapons like javelins and manpads that can be easily hidden by partisans and used in ambushes.

Totally agree re the partisan resistance too. This isn't Iraq, where the occupiers were deposing a tyrannical and unpopular dictator, and the vast majority of insurgents were fringe religious extremists. This is a people fighting for the survival of their nation. And there are a lot more people, and a lot more weapons. A Russian occupation will see more and more casualties, until either the Russian people get sick enough of it to rise up and depose Putin, or Putin takes the decision to start genociding Ukrainians.

The only hope for this war is that the rising up happens before that stage.

The Iraqi insurgency was carried out by people from all different walks of life. It was not just religious extremism

Tomberforce
May 30, 2006

I'm guessing that the Polish Fulcrums have had Ukrainian decals on for at least a few days now in readiness. Poland gets to support the Ukranians without risking Polish pilots, give the Russians a bloody nose and presumably get sent some shiny new F 16s to replace their aging Migs.

I wouldnt be surprised if there are some keen polish pilots too. The Poles do have a proud track record of contributions in the air....

Polish pilot contributions in WWII

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

kaaj posted:

They do. It's anecdotal and I'm a random stranger from the Internet, but my home town is within 50km from one of the bases in Poland. Even in times of peace you could see both F16s and rarely other jets in the air. The chatter I heard from people I trust mentioned that the frequency of those flights was slowly increasing even before the invasion.

Yes, F16s are the current equipment, not the mostly deprecated stuff that is being given to Ukraine.

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Vietnom nom nom posted:

The problem is you're drawing arbitrary lines in the sand of history. I mean I could just as easily point to the scarring effects of 20+ million people dying in World War 2 for the USSR, or the deep apathy and resignation to having autocratic corrupt leaders due to never having anything but that.

You're basically saying "causality exists". That events have long term effects that ripple outwards through time. Well, no poo poo.

I mean I could just as easily say:

Matthew Perry opens Japan -> Japan humiliates Russia in a war -> Tsars fall out of favor -> Revolution happens -> USSR

Matthew Perry got Ukraine invaded!

like all things in the last 400 years of world history, this is of course ultimately the result of england kicking its tenant farmers off their land for conversion to sheep pastures.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


What's Putin's saving grace or plan at this point? Hope that Belarus attacks and that once his troops are organized they'll attack Kiev in hope they get Zelinsky or he'll surrender?

Trump
Jul 16, 2003

Cute

kaaj posted:

I'd not guess this would happen so fast. Even if Poland and other countries are sending older jets, they've got some of the US F16s stationed just in case any escalations. By the looks of it, those jets will be way more useful in Ukraine than where they currently are.

And there's 4 danish F-16s under the Baltic Policing umbrella. And since Denmark has been cutting down on their fighters in preparation for the massive new fleet of 27 F-35s, I'd imagine we have a handful mothballed in a hangar they can have.

Celexi
Nov 25, 2006

Slava Ukraini!

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

What's Putin's saving grace or plan at this point? Hope that Belarus attacks and that once his troops are organized they'll attack Kiev in hope they get Zelinsky or he'll surrender?

Belarus troops are already helping Russia so I am not sure they have anything else to send, maybe another Russia puppet?

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

What's Putin's saving grace or plan at this point? Hope that Belarus attacks and that once his troops are organized they'll attack Kiev in hope they get Zelinsky or he'll surrender?

Win the war (which Russia is still likely to), then wait for the West to get bored and cancel sanctions.

kaaj
Jun 23, 2013

don't stop, carry on.
https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498081949675663362

So efficient at counting votes!

Slugworth
Feb 18, 2001

If two grown men can't make a pervert happy for a few minutes in order to watch a film about zombies, then maybe we should all just move to Iran!
Lots of people questioning where pilots would be found. This may be a dumb question, but is it strange to expect an air force to have more pilots than planes? It feels like they'd maybe train some extra guys?

ethanol
Jul 13, 2007



TulliusCicero posted:

The population of Ukraine might have more anti tank/ anti air weapon systems dispersed among them then any other country in the world right now

Have fun trying to "occupy" that
I don’t think there is any plan at all on this anymore. it’s just bizarro world poo poo now because putin thought it would be over in one day the ukraine government would all be dead. And he keeps saying he doesn’t want to occupy anyways, not that you can believe anything he says. Will go down in military history as one of the greatest failures of all time

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

What's Putin's saving grace or plan at this point? Hope that Belarus attacks and that once his troops are organized they'll attack Kiev in hope they get Zelinsky or he'll surrender?

Given that Belarus has erupted into protests, I don't think Belarus, much like Kazakhstan, can afford to use their troops to pacify Ukraine.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Just making the number up is super-quick, yeah.

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BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


after napoleon and hitler it was only fair for russia to be on the other end of doomed overambitious campaigns

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