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James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Shes Not Impressed posted:

Let's hope Ukraine's air defenses are aware! (of course they are)
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498106694999711746?s=20&t=LsCdpS12fZ-wgJpZD0vQkQ

This might also explain the slow news drip. An all out attack with Belarussian backup when daylight hits along multiple fronts.

Why do they keep doing this. Did some Russian general's ex-wife marry a paratrooper?

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TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



Upgrade posted:

People are brushing it off because success for Ukraine isn’t the same as success for Russia. The longer Ukraine can prolong the war (and conscripted militias can do so) the harder it becomes for Russia to continue invasion.

This is an extremely good point:

The win conditions for Russia and Ukraine are entirely different

Ukraine just has to continue holding out: that's it. They are being flooded with cash and materiel, and all they have to do is hold the cities until Russia goes broke and morale flat lines

Russia has to now:

occupy an entire country larger than Texas. Wipe out several Ukranian lines that they have proven completely incapable of so far

Defeat the apparently undying Ukranian airforce to gain air superiority

Occupy cities FULL of angry civilians and militia with massive access to portable anti-tank/ and air launchers

Set up a puppet government from...somewhere?

At the some time, fix their flatlining economy overnight and still feed and supply all their troops.

....Do people start to see why this becomes increasingly more difficult?

Tomberforce
May 30, 2006

I'm sure 4 or 5 planeloads of 150 or so Belarussian paratroopers getting blown out of the sky in the middle of the day is going to go down great with the Belarussian populous...

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

BigBallChunkyTime posted:

I assume nobody's willing to jump in the fray on Ukraine's side?

Not officially. But assume that there will start to be a flow of foreign fighters retired from their military service 1 say before joining the ukrainian side.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

BigBallChunkyTime posted:

I assume nobody's willing to jump in the fray on Ukraine's side?

I almost think that if Poland wasn't constrained by its NATO membership, it would be in the air.

Judakel
Jul 29, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!

Upgrade posted:

People are brushing it off because success for Ukraine isn’t the same as success for Russia. The longer Ukraine can prolong the war (and conscripted militias can do so) the harder it becomes for Russia to continue invasion.

Once that happens, it is over. Their army will have surrendered or be dead. Either way, that is a huge morale drain for any people left wanting to fight in the cities. They've been taking some units into cities here and there to see how fierce resistance is, and it is possible that they will try to go in, but I have my doubts. I think it is far more likely that they will fire upon those cities until they surrender.

Abner Assington
Mar 13, 2005

For I am a sinner in the hands of an angry god. Bloody Mary, full of vodka, blessed are you among cocktails. Pray for me now, at the hour of my death, which I hope is soon.

Amen.

Upgrade posted:

Yea the OP is wrong. The punitive parts of the Treaty of Versailles wern't just reparations, it was more so Germany accepting sole responsibility for the war, handing over disputed territory in the West, handing over their overseas colonies, and demilitarizing. Hitler's early successes in foreign policy came from using the rhetoric of the League if Nations, i.e. the importance of sovereignty and self determination, to highlight the hypocrisy of the continued French occupation of the Ruhr, the demilitarization of the Rhineland, etc. That's what helped drive a wedge between France and England in the '30s (plus France essentially being in a state of civil war for the entire decade).

Long story short WWI is complicated. This situation is much less so.
I didn't say they were the only punitive part of the treaty :confused:

Dante posted:

I think the current historical consensus is that it would have been possible for Germany to pay the war reparations, they weren't so onerous as to crush their economy, but they coincided with an economic crisis and hyperinflation in Germany. While the other countries basically had their war reparations cancelled, France insisted Germany pay. When Germany eventually defaulted on payments, France occupied Ruhr and extracted goods directly since the value of the mark was crushed by hyperinflation. There was a huge amount of Nazi propaganda about it, but there's no doubt that it was punitive measure for a country in very bad shape economically and that Nazi used the issue to gain popularity.
Exactly this. The economic impact of the treaty was pretty superficial until everyone's economies started imploding.

sean10mm
Jun 29, 2005

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World

James Garfield posted:

Why do they keep doing this. Did some Russian general's ex-wife marry a paratrooper?

Russia has violated Baby's First Airborne Doctrine Lessons so hard in this war that they just have to be deluded into thinking that if they show up with their rad berets everyone will surrender immediately.

How they still think that NOW I have no idea.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Young Freud posted:

I hope his Batka's son is leading the airborne assault so the loss hits him personally.




found footage.

ethanol
Jul 13, 2007



Judakel posted:

Once that happens, it is over. Their army will have surrendered or be dead. Either way, that is a huge morale drain for any people left wanting to fight in the cities. They've been taking some units into cities here and there to see how fierce resistance is, and it is possible that they will try to go, but I have my doubts. I think it is far more likely that they will fire upon those cities until they surrender.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Judakel posted:

Once that happens, it is over. Their army will have surrendered or be dead. Either way, that is a huge morale drain for any people left wanting to fight in the cities. They've been taking some units into cities here and there to see how fierce resistance is, and it is possible that they will try to go, but I have my doubts. I think it is far more likely that they will fire upon those cities until they surrender.

Once what happens? What magic event do you think instantly breaks morale for all Ukrainians in the video game running in your head?

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


James Garfield posted:

Why do they keep doing this. Did some Russian general's ex-wife marry a paratrooper?

In the Russian article the dude posted you have to google translate the Russian colonel says that it’s a cliche in Russian military reports for a single paratrooper squad to take a city in a couple hours or tens of minutes.

Like navy seals or legionnaires, paratroopers are apparently what Russian military nerds masturbate to and the reason they keep failing is they’re sending the wrong ones

Dante
Feb 8, 2003

https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1497930298696376323?s=20&t=3c1W1OGkTcD0TP11iIU5pw
Powerful stuff, this is just outside the Kremlin.

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

Shes Not Impressed posted:

Let's hope Ukraine's air defenses are aware! (of course they are)
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498106694999711746?s=20&t=LsCdpS12fZ-wgJpZD0vQkQ

This might also explain the slow news drip. An all out attack with Belarussian backup when daylight hits along multiple fronts.

do you think these guys dont know about the semi trucks full of stingers or what the gently caress

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Let's have a feel good moment, shall we? Soccer hooligans not being trash.

https://twitter.com/p_zalewski/status/1498058235626020864?t=A7-LR6jLQqv0TYaG2Dltqw&s=19

Despera
Jun 6, 2011

TulliusCicero posted:

This is an extremely good point:

The win conditions for Russia and Ukraine are entirely different

Ukraine just has to continue holding out: that's it. They are being flooded with cash and materiel, and all they have to do is hold the cities until Russia goes broke and morale flat lines

Russia has to now:

occupy an entire country larger than Texas. Wipe out several Ukranian lines that they have proven completely incapable of so far

Defeat the apparently undying Ukranian airforce to gain air superiority

Occupy cities FULL of angry civilians and militia with massive access to portable anti-tank/ and air launchers

Set up a puppet government from...somewhere?

At the some time, fix their flatlining economy overnight and still feed and supply all their troops.

....Do people start to see why this becomes increasingly more difficult?

I was told Putin was a rational actor though

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

punishedkissinger posted:

do you think these guys dont know about the semi trucks full of stingers or what the gently caress

You think the fact that the Ukraine air force not only is still flying but got more loving planes and AAMs would dawn on them somehow.

Warad
Aug 10, 2019



James Garfield posted:

Why do they keep doing this. Did some Russian general's ex-wife marry a paratrooper?

3rd's 4th's 5th's 6th's time the charm.

And (pardon the meme) this but, replace Putin with Lukashenko and 11pm with 6 am I guess.

Judakel
Jul 29, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!

Warbadger posted:

Once what happens? What magic event do you think instantly breaks morale for all Ukrainians in the video game running in your head?

The fact the morale isn't that high to begin with, what with handing out guns to random people, some of whom commit crimes with them, an oddly high number of saboteurs in Ukrainian uniform that look more and more like deserters, and the Mayor of Kyiv admitting that controlling the anxiety of his people is one of the bigger challenges right now. Well, at least not that high right now. Maybe it was to begin with...

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



Shes Not Impressed posted:

Let's hope Ukraine's air defenses are aware! (of course they are)
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498106694999711746?s=20&t=LsCdpS12fZ-wgJpZD0vQkQ

This might also explain the slow news drip. An all out attack with Belarussian backup when daylight hits along multiple fronts.

...Are they really doing mass airdrops in broad daylight, with a massive zone full of anti-air?

...this....Wow :psyduck:

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

punishedkissinger posted:

do you think these guys dont know about the semi trucks full of stingers or what the gently caress

They don't. Because they are being lied to constantly. They are probably being told that the artillery neutralized all the defense and it's just old men and children defending the cities.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Judakel posted:

Once that happens, it is over. Their army will have surrendered or be dead. Either way, that is a huge morale drain for any people left wanting to fight in the cities. They've been taking some units into cities here and there to see how fierce resistance is, and it is possible that they will try to go in, but I have my doubts. I think it is far more likely that they will fire upon those cities until they surrender.

tfw you spend literally all day reading

https://twitter.com/200_zoka
https://twitter.com/RWApodcast
https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary

Servetus
Apr 1, 2010

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

In the Russian article the dude posted you have to google translate the Russian colonel says that it’s a cliche in Russian military reports for a single paratrooper squad to take a city in a couple hours or tens of minutes.

Like navy seals or legionnaires, paratroopers are apparently what Russian military nerds masturbate to and the reason they keep failing is they’re sending the wrong ones

It's nice to know that idiotic "operator culture" isn't just a North American thing.

Mustard Iceman
Apr 8, 2015

Weak against ketchup

punishedkissinger posted:

do you think these guys dont know about the semi trucks full of stingers or what the gently caress

They probably know even less than the first wave of Russians did.

Ciprian Maricon
Feb 27, 2006



Crazy idea, but maybe it's possible that Ukraine didn't blow up 69,000 paratroopers in one fell swoop? I know it was reported but have we seen confirmation?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Judakel
Jul 29, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!

If the Russians get out of Crimea, the army will be protected by the Zelensky memes.

Dante
Feb 8, 2003

the popes toes posted:

I almost think that if Poland wasn't constrained by its NATO membership, it would be in the air.

Poland is not constrained by its NATO membership. You're free to attack whoever you want.

nurmie
Dec 8, 2019

Ciprian Maricon posted:

Crazy idea, but maybe it's possible that Ukraine didn't blow up 69,000 paratroopers in one fell swoop? I know it was reported but have we seen confirmation?

I've yet to see any concrete evidence of that.

ethanol
Jul 13, 2007



Judakel posted:

The fact the morale isn't that high to begin with, what with handing out guns to random people, some of whom commit crimes with them, an oddly high number of saboteurs in Ukrainian uniform that look more and more like deserters, and the Mayor of Kyiv admitting that controlling the anxiety of his people is one of the bigger challenges right now. Well, at least not that high right now. Maybe it was to begin with...

Why is it every time you post I see putins face making the words

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

KitConstantine posted:

Let's have a feel good moment, shall we? Soccer hooligans not being trash.

https://twitter.com/p_zalewski/status/1498058235626020864?t=A7-LR6jLQqv0TYaG2Dltqw&s=19

I was like "this is cool, but it's kind of not so powerful with him not really reacting", and then, welp.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


ENFORCE THE UNITED STATES DRESS CODE AT ALL COSTS!

This message paid for by the Men's Wearhouse& Jos A Bank Lobbying Group

Judakel posted:

The fact the morale isn't that high to begin with, what with handing out guns to random people, some of whom commit crimes with them, an oddly high number of saboteurs in Ukrainian uniform that look more and more like deserters, and the Mayor of Kyiv admitting that controlling the anxiety of his people is one of the bigger challenges right now. Well, at least not that high right now. Maybe it was to begin with...

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Ciprian Maricon posted:

Crazy idea, but maybe it's possible that Ukraine didn't blow up 69,000 paratroopers in one fell swoop? I know it was reported but have we seen confirmation?

When was this ever said lol

Warad
Aug 10, 2019



Ciprian Maricon posted:

Crazy idea, but maybe it's possible that Ukraine didn't blow up 69,000 paratroopers in one fell swoop? I know it was reported but have we seen confirmation?

The massive fuckup at Hostomel is definitely confirmed for sure. The downed Il-76s however are still up in the air, US officials confirmed them all so there's some notion they did go down, but literally nothing about crash sites or debris, so who really knows.

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

Ciprian Maricon posted:

Crazy idea, but maybe it's possible that Ukraine didn't blow up 69,000 paratroopers in one fell swoop? I know it was reported but have we seen confirmation?

you could hear the shooting around pockets being closed up on livestreams i think. maybe theyve gone superstealth.

BigglesSWE
Dec 2, 2014

How 'bout them hawks news huh!
When it comes to predicting the future, one can rarely be more wrong than the Italian Foreign Minister after the shots in Sarajevo, I suppose:

https://twitter.com/WarHappened/status/1409527009168957441?s=20&t=uEqvSw-_tPL5TW35dI57sg

Judakel
Jul 29, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!

Pook Good Mook posted:

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

I guess we'll see.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

TulliusCicero posted:

...Are they really doing mass airdrops in broad daylight, with a massive zone full of anti-air?

...this....Wow :psyduck:

My guess is they would be doing it with a strike package right at or before dawn. Have bombers with fighter support come through first and then have your paradrop. Since this has been a clown show from them I imagine it will be 3 IL-76s and an escort of two Mig-23s.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

He also said that Putin has lost his mind... in less polite terms.

Epinephrine
Nov 7, 2008

Ciprian Maricon posted:

Crazy idea, but maybe it's possible that Ukraine didn't blow up 69,000 paratroopers in one fell swoop? I know it was reported but have we seen confirmation?
You're right of course, it wasn't 69,000 paratroopers.

It was 69,420.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

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kaaj
Jun 23, 2013

don't stop, carry on.

Tomberforce posted:

I'm sure 4 or 5 planeloads of 150 or so Belarussian paratroopers getting blown out of the sky in the middle of the day is going to go down great with the Belarussian populous...

People dying is a human tragedy and I’m positive that a lot of the troopers didn’t have much choice in this decision , other than maybe not joining the military in the first place. Which makes this multiple times worse.

With that being said, I’d really wish that those planes get shot down.

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