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If San Francisco was gonna be nuked, about how much warning would there be? Does anyone even know? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 28, 2022 05:41
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Hardware made by the lowest bidder 
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Feb 28, 2022 05:42
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Boba Pearl posted:If San Francisco was gonna be nuked, about how much warning would there be? Does anyone even know? Nowhere near enough to get out of San Francisco
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Feb 28, 2022 05:44
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Boba Pearl posted:If San Francisco was gonna be nuked, about how much warning would there be? Does anyone even know? Russia is not about to nuke the U.S.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:45
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A pessimistic take: https://twitter.com/bazaarofwar/status/1498138448556929026 Twitter seems to indicate relative quiet; no idea if that is consolidation or indecision. Either way, resources pouring over both borders...
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Feb 28, 2022 05:45
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Huggybear posted:It's stating the obvious. This is going to get worse before it gets better, unless some folks figure out how to unalive or depose Putin. He is delusional and unhinged with an immense amount of nuclear firepower who has painted himself into a corner. I think there is a decent chance we will see a localised, smaller yield/tactical nuclear strike followed by total capitulation. How would it play out, to have a "small" nuclear strike that doesn't result in retaliation? We will know when the missiles go up, other countries will be able to track them in the air. How are all the other nuclear countries supposed to know that this is just a little nuclear strike, no real threat, they don't need to instantly do a nuclear strike on Russia's military installations to try to prevent or limit a second wave?
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Feb 28, 2022 05:46
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Boba Pearl posted:If San Francisco was gonna be nuked, about how much warning would there be? Does anyone even know? Depends where the nuke is coming from, the Kamchatka peninsula or the nuclear submarine sitting a few miles west of Monterrey.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:47
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Boba Pearl posted:If San Francisco was gonna be nuked, about how much warning would there be? Does anyone even know? Federal emergency broadcast would blast out on TV, radio, and cell phones. Air raid or tornado sirens would go off. Depending on when they detected the launches, you might have time to get to a basement or shelter. Might.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:47
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Boba Pearl posted:If San Francisco was gonna be nuked, about how much warning would there be? Does anyone even know? Does it matter? If nuclear war broke our I'd rather go in the I itial explosion Than live in the following hellacape
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Feb 28, 2022 05:47
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Vox Nihili posted:Putin and Trump aren't remotely similar people. An ex-businessman who stumbled into politics and kinda made poo poo up as he went along versus a former KGB agent who has been part of the national security apparatus for decades. Totally different motivations and goals. I think we can safely move on from putin being some kind of 4d chess genius. Where do you see *any* sort of strategy from him?
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Feb 28, 2022 05:48
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If Russia nuked SF then you'd prefer no warning, because in the hours afterwards there aren't going to be many fun places anywhere in the world. Luckily that sort of escalation is still unlikely at this point.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:48
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Grouchio posted:I'd doubt he'd fire nukes on the territory he wants to conquer just to dethrone and scatter the 'nazis' he's after. I didn't say indiscriminately. I said low yield, tactical nukes and as few as one. And this invasion isn't about infrastructure or resources, it's about nationalism and imperialism and the Ukraine is massive, and Putin has already threatened with this.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:48
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ronya posted:A pessimistic take: That map is from this Twitter account: https://twitter.com/miladvisor/status/1498040991726686216 Which is fairly clearly pro-Russian (it has a variety of pro-Russian tweets prior to the war, as well as about the Syrian Army "liberating" places)--and its tweets about the war are only about negative things for the Ukrainians or positive things about the Russians. It's so pro-Russian that I wouldn't be surprised if it was operated by someone in the Russian government. Not to say a pessimistic take isn't reasonable, but I guess I'd take it with at least a few grains of salt. Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 05:56 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 05:49
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I seriously doubt Russia would use a tactical nuclear device on Kyiv or Kharkov or something. If they did I doubt it would be delivered using a ballistic missile. I suspect a relatively 'small' one would not trigger the Dead Man's Hand, but the world would also know exactly what happened within minutes. If I was going to look at WMDs on the part of Russia you might look at chemical weapons. But this too is Clancychat.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:49
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Given San Francisco would be one of the first targets for the Russian nuclear sub a couple miles away, I'd say anywhere from 2-5 minutes assuming everything goes right.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:50
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Gripweed posted:How would it play out, to have a "small" nuclear strike that doesn't result in retaliation? We will know when the missiles go up, other countries will be able to track them in the air. How are all the other nuclear countries supposed to know that this is just a little nuclear strike, no real threat, they don't need to instantly do a nuclear strike on Russia's military installations to try to prevent or limit a second wave? I don't know if nuclear response scenarios account for "little strikes" as risking that would impact the deterrent of response.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:50
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Pook Good Mook posted:Federal emergency broadcast would blast out on TV, radio, and cell phones. Air raid or tornado sirens would go off. Depending on when they detected the launches, you might have time to get to a basement or shelter. Might. Haha I grew up in the SF bay area and one of my high school buildings was constructed in 1955 - there is still a fallout shelter sign on the side entrance
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Feb 28, 2022 05:51
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There's no reason to nuke those cities when you can accomplish the same objective with mass artillery while keeping the areas habitable.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:51
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Rigel posted:Stupid question, is this war basically showing us that tanks are now mostly obsolete, or is Russia using them in a hilariously stupid way? tanks are still useful, there's just a lot of weapons that kill them extremely dead. a tank is not an invincible killbox, it is surprisingly vulnerable to all sorts of things. an unsupported tank idling in a thicket somewhere is vulnerable to some maniac running up to it with a bucket of gasoline and a lighter its mostly that russia is using them in a stupid way. if you're going to commit tanks to fight, then you need to support them with dismounted infantry and close fire support from aircraft. the infantry help to screen the tank, to spot things that might kill the tank and to shoot at those threats or go hunt/kill them. when a more substantial threat is identified, you want to have close support on call so that a helicopter can pop up and fire heavy rockets or something, or a loitering aircraft can drop a guided munition to blow up the house where the suspected ATGM team is lurking. this is grim stuff but its what the american military did in iraq, at a horrible cost in terms of civilian casualties. if you're going to commit your troops though, you want your troops to know that their lives are the first priority - if you can't promise that, then why are you sending troops in to begin with? is it really worth a shooting war? russia is committing troops but not supporting them. this is some combination of being unwilling to kill mass numbers of ukrainian civilians (either from strategic/political goals, or demoralized russian soldiers being less than ready to just loving murder innocent people for no good reason) or alternatively, that russia hosed up securing the battlefield to where that was even an option. like the airspace over ukraine is still contested which is utterly insane from the perspective of managing a shooting war, it is one of the first loving things you need to do!!! so that you can keep your own guys alive and driving towards their objectives!!! but for whatever reason russia failed to do this which means that recon is hampered, which means its harder to airstrike enemy units, which means that any kind of threat from enemy air units to enemy armor to just guys popping out of bushes with NLAWs can gently caress up your assault units. at this point russia is waist deep in one of the most embarrassing military debacles of the modern era, with how badly this invasion is going versus how it should have gone. and russia is probably still going to "win" this thing, for what a victory is worth at this point
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Feb 28, 2022 05:51
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I think Putin is more in line with Russia's history of occasional thugs close to the pursestrings of power savy enough only to kill his rivals. He's smart in some ways but I'd say more ruthless and savy. Like you can't call Putin stupid but that doesn't mean his skill set translates well to other areas. He knows who has power, how to intimidate people, and how to eliminate threats. Trump did not have that. This isn't a stupid/smart comparison, they're just different sorts of assholes.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:51
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SlurredSpeech609 posted:I think we can safely move on from putin being some kind of 4d chess genius. Where do you see *any* sort of strategy from him? Did I say Putin was a genius? No. So why do you expect me to support an argument putting that forward? I spoke to his motivation and his goals.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:51
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I'm still confused as to what's going on at the Donetsk line. Are the Ukrainians just not able to disengage? Have they, but their opsec is good and we haven't heard anything while they prepare a counterattack?
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Feb 28, 2022 05:51
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Huggybear posted:I didn't say indiscriminately. I said low yield, tactical nukes and as few as one. And this invasion isn't about infrastructure or resources, it's about nationalism and imperialism and the Ukraine is massive, and Putin has already threatened with this. A single nuke, no matter how small, will be the end of Russia as we know it. I’d be shocked if Putin could even find enough people willing to go along with that to actually carry out the attack.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:52
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Boba Pearl posted:If San Francisco was gonna be nuked, about how much warning would there be? Does anyone even know? Im going to be incredibly generous and say under 30 minutes.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:52
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Do most American cities have sirens? I grew up with tornado sirens in the Midwest, but I've never heard any sirens where I live in the South now, not even a test.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:53
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Huggybear posted:I didn't say indiscriminately. I said low yield, tactical nukes and as few as one. And this invasion isn't about infrastructure or resources, it's about nationalism and imperialism and the Ukraine is massive, and Putin has already threatened with this. My man the smallest "low yield" "tactical" nuclear missile in existence is still orders of magnitude larger than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This isn't a video game.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:53
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Could we please stop talking about Russia nuking th U.S.? I feel like this is really veering into WW3 chat, and there's no signs that Russia's about to attack anyone outside of Ukraine
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Feb 28, 2022 05:54
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From a friend in Western Ukraine: "We are free people, we are win. Thanks for your care. We love you too, bro."
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Feb 28, 2022 05:54
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Pook Good Mook posted:There's no reason to nuke those cities when you can accomplish the same objective with mass artillery while keeping the areas habitable.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:54
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If the sub is off the coast you might have 30 seconds from the warning to detonation Everyone will be trying to get out at once. So your chances of getting out are nil.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:55
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So let's call 10,000 of Russias troops non functioning due to various reasons, a few being desertion or dereliction of duty by just not doing anything. 5,000 dead and maybe another 2500 or so wounded? Out of 200,000 17500 are already non functioning. And I don't code non functioning as dead but just not doing their job. That's 10% already and we are a week in. The Ukrainians in the other hand are gaining in numbers of defenders and their equipment level is going up. The Russians going down every day. Someone earlier said that the morale was always on the defender and the attacker didn't have to worry about it. That seems like complete bullshit especially with the fact that the defenders are so well equipped well-fed and highly motivated. And the attackers are absolutely not any of those things. They are running out of gasoline on the side of the loving road and having to be towed back with Belarus and tractors. So in a wayward way the Belarus has to utilize its national resource tractor imports to fund the war effort. So what this really means is that Belarus is in a total war footing. And it's still not feeling the Russian military. So we may have seen the extent of the gains that they can achieve while their supply lines are constantly being attacked. They will have to go full war criminal like Aleppo poo poo to crack ant of these cities resolve. And even if they do the infantry still has to win the fight! (11b mentality yeah I know). Russia expected a calm and chill invasion with a few rocks being thrown. Instead they are walking into death traps on the daily and dealing with a very hostile area. The Russians are hungry and tired and waning off of alcohol. Their non assault time is spent stealing and listening to the screams of their comrades bleeding out with no hospital in sight. They are hosed. It's inevitable at this point that there will be a non military solution that comes into play. Russia is losing the war because now, the global capitalist system has turned it's back on Russia. This war will re write the book on what the gently caress to do in the situation. Imperialism was the highest form of capitalism, but is anti imperialism the actual zenith of the capitalist order? *Sniffles*
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Feb 28, 2022 05:56
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TheKingofSprings posted:Nowhere near enough to get out of San Francisco Yeah it's important to remember that the popular image of a nuclear strike, a single mushroom cloud, is anachronistic. I believe that most nuclear missiles nowadays carry multiple warheads, so there would be multiple explosions spread out to devastate a much larger area. If you're in a targeted city and there's a missile on the way, you aren't getting out.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:56
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Gripweed posted:How would it play out, to have a "small" nuclear strike that doesn't result in retaliation? We will know when the missiles go up, other countries will be able to track them in the air. How are all the other nuclear countries supposed to know that this is just a little nuclear strike, no real threat, they don't need to instantly do a nuclear strike on Russia's military installations to try to prevent or limit a second wave? I'll answer this and then stop posting about it because it is freaking people out. I am not afraid of death for personal reasons, so this is interesting to me. You can deliver a small yield tactical nuke by artillery, or cruise missile, by air, or by IRBM. Most of these are detectable but not as ICBM or SLBM launches, which is what early warning/MAD response systems are geared to respond to (because they launch like a rocket into space). If a small yield nuke is detonated against a strategic target like a parliament, or a hydro plant, or a major military installation and not by way of a major missile launch, the detonation will not be interpretable as nuclear until it happens, not at launch (first strike scenario that everyone is anxious about), and by then the Russians could release a statement indicating no further nukes will be deployed if the Ukraine capitulates entirely. I am kind of surprised this hasn't happened yet. Caveat, I was an expert in this stuff years ago so I might have got some facts muddled. edit: glad I read the room. Sorry everyone. Huggybear fucked around with this message at 06:03 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 05:56
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alg posted:Do most American cities have sirens? I grew up with tornado sirens in the Midwest, but I've never heard any sirens where I live in the South now, not even a test. Depends on the municipality. South western TN has weekly siren testing every Saturday at noon.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:57
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Sir John Falstaff posted:That map is from this Twitter account: https://twitter.com/miladvisor/status/1498040991726686216 I suppose it's reflective on what Russians might be thinking, at the minimum Do they even have the manpower to effect a cordon on a city the size of Kyiv? It'd still be pretty porous
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Feb 28, 2022 05:57
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You giant fear mongers. Nobody is nuking anybody. For gently caress sake.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:57
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Anxieties are running high but I don't think speculation about nuclear war is very productive right now, kinda Clancychat. imo far more likely that Putin uses more conventional weapons of terror to brutalize Ukrainians into submission than actually going nuclear. edit: to be clear, I'm asking folks to avoid nuke chat especially Russia nuking the US. That is very Clancy.
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Feb 28, 2022 05:58
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Wonder if Putin's gameplan at this point is to try to finish up this Ukraine business asap any way possible (short of nukes) and then start the nuke sabre rattling to try to get the economic sanctions off and russia's economy going. That would seem like a "reasonable" strategy
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Feb 28, 2022 05:58
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Russian prosecutor announcing that giving money or other aid to Ukraine will be prosecuted as treason, with a 20 year sentence.quote:The Prosecutor General's Office explained what kind of assistance to Ukraine will be regarded as treason
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Feb 28, 2022 05:59
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:
And I know Ukraine isn't in nato but would the world sit there and watch that happen?
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Feb 28, 2022 06:00
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