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ethanol posted:Do flight bans amount to anything more than an inconvenience when you can fly from Moscow to say, Dubai and then anywhere you want? Or is more to do with messing with trade shipping routes It can be a big pain in the rear end for some airlines. Finnish airliner Finnair specializes in flights between Europe and Asia, so you can probably see why Russia closing their airspace might become an issue. 
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Feb 28, 2022 15:05
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ZombieLenin posted:Correct; and the vast majority of the UA’s mechanized forces are being held in reserve and have not even been engaged yet. To be fair, we have seen some Ukrainian convoys wrecked trying to move around the southern thrust. That said the encirclement map folks are posting is heavily Russian biased and has a screwed up perspective, so the advances look larger then they are. The Wikipedia one is much less the war is over.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:05
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ZombieLenin posted:Correct; and the vast majority of the UA’s mechanized forces are being held in reserve and have not even been engaged yet. As far as I know, that's speculation. Also what's it gonna do? I don't really think a decisive armored column emerging suddenly and sweeping all before it to decide the war (or a battle) is something that is going to happen for either side in this war.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:06
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Also, if the numbers from the UA are to be believed, which we can assume are close to true given TASS accidentally posting very similar loss numbers before having them removed, the RA has lost a full 1/4 of their total operational APCs in 4 days, and about 1/10th if you count the 7k APCs they keep in reserve.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:07
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Just trying to contextualise it for myself and Kharkiv is around the same population size as Liverpool & Manchester, UK, or San Antonio, Texas. 
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Feb 28, 2022 15:08
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ZombieLenin posted:Also, if the numbers from the UA are to be believed, which we can assume are close to true given TASS accidentally posting very similar loss numbers before having them removed Come on, dude.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:08
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Alchenar posted:This is a really long thread but I think unfortunately has it right: He makes a lot of good points. There are a few *potential* holes in his reasoning. 1) we have seen some destroyed Russian columns. These seem to be from baraktyar strikes, but still. 2) Ukraine seems to still be managing to at least contest air superiority. 3) Russian ability to support and maintain their offensive does not appear guaranteed. Especially given sanctions. 4) we haven't seen destroyed Ukrainian armor much at all yet, so there may be an actual reserve force still available to the defenders. Despite those though yeah he still is probably correct. But just probably.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:08
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Alchenar posted:This is a really long thread but I think unfortunately has it right: Yeah I can't really argue with this, the fact that the Russians are already across the Dniester really eliminates act possibility that the Ukrainian military can hold out. It's now just a question of what a Russian "victory" can look like given the losses they've taken and the fact that the Ukrainians clearly won't accept annexation or a Russian puppet president.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:09
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Despite those though yeah he still is probably correct. But just probably. He's probably insanely correct about hyperinflation in Europe and elsewhere coming soon. While I'm v concerned about the war, I also need to spend some time sending emails to re-fix my mortgage rate before it's too late
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Feb 28, 2022 15:12
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ZombieLenin posted:Also, if the numbers from the UA are to be believed, which we can assume are close to true given TASS accidentally posting very similar loss numbers before having them removed, the RA has lost a full 1/4 of their total operational APCs in 4 days, and about 1/10th if you count the 7k APCs they keep in reserve. My understanding was that TASS was just reporting on the Ukrainian numbers. I wouldn't imagine the Kremlin is passing even propaganda numbers to news agencies when their only official statement thus far has been "yes, we have some dead/wounded" The fog of war is real and we're largely only seeing heavily filtered content from the Ukrainian side. I personally am not reading too much into it
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Feb 28, 2022 15:12
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punishedkissinger posted:pretty much every eastern european country has a number of far right militias yes. Its hosed up but I would argue they do not represent Ukraine, a democratic country with a jewish president. People are complicated and it's okay to recognize that, and it doesn't make you the same as useful idiots who are trying to carry water for an imperialist in the name of anti-imperialism. And whatever the high is fair because gently caress Putin.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:12
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I dont think we know where the bulk of the Ukrainian army is or what their plan is, sweepimg statements like "The majority of the ukrainian army is about to get totally surrounded in east Ukraine!" Or "The Ukrainians have a big mechanized reserve preparing for a counterattack" are just baseless speculation.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:12
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ronya posted:genuine questions I have with this forecast: Doesn't take much to set up a checkpoint. And all the issues the Russians have with 'tanks use up fuel really fast' apply just as much to Ukraine (with the provisio that if they are following a plan they will be moving back from depot to depot). And even if the encirclement isn't perfect, a stream of escapees on foot or car isn't a problem for Russia if the Ukrainian army de-mechanizes in the process. As the OP says, an army of dismounted infantry with light AT weapons is only good for standing in place, and that just means you die to Russian fires. e: I would agree that I don't think the thread is entirtely accurate but I think it is closer to reality than some of the optimistic takes that have been flying around about the Russian army collapsing. They're winning, but Ukraine is making them pay for it. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 15:18 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 15:14
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Well, at one point the Ukrainians need to pick their fight and try to hold some chokepoint to stem the bleeding from south and east. Basically like we see North/NW of Kyiv right now. Otherwise the Russian waves will eventually roll all the way to Dniepr river and encircle the major cities and pincer the Ukr army in the East. Russians don't really need to take the cities, just encircle and put them under soft siege and just move forward with the rest of the columns.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:15
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ZombieLenin posted:Also, if the numbers from the UA are to be believed, which we can assume are close to true given TASS accidentally posting very similar loss numbers before having them removed, the RA has lost a full 1/4 of their total operational APCs in 4 days, and about 1/10th if you count the 7k APCs they keep in reserve. Any time Russian media posts Russian casualty figures it’s because they were hacked and the hackers are repeating the Ukraine numbers. It’s not independent confirmation.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:15
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If you’re imagining a giant counter attack by Ukrainian armor to drive the Russian army across the border you need to log off.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:15
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freeasinbeer posted:To be fair, we have seen some Ukrainian convoys wrecked trying to move around the southern thrust. I tried finding the evidence for this but it's nearly impossible now due to the footage of blown up Russian convoys being literally everywhere. That said, I do recall at least several long videos showing obliterated/abandoned battalion-sized Ukrainian columns on the very first day of invasion, which is why I'm assuming they haven't been actually moving much since then. At least, not on that operational level. Of course, I might be very wrong on this, and I guess we'll find out at some point in the future. Also, apropos of nothing. This is entirely unsubstantiated and basically my own personal Hot Take, but I can see Russia basically becoming China's Canada in the next decade or so as a result of this whole affair.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:15
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OctaMurk posted:I dont think we know where the bulk of the Ukrainian army is or what their plan is, sweepimg statements like "The majority of the ukrainian army is about to get totally surrounded in east Ukraine!" Or "The Ukrainians have a big mechanized reserve preparing for a counterattack" are just baseless speculation. I think the best we can say is that what forces have been engaged so far have held back the Russians long enough for the reserve to begin mobilising, and it's not unreasonable to suggest that at least some of those forces are still fresh and unengaged somewhere in the rear, potentially being equipped with rapidly arriving American and European 'assistance'.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:17
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nurmie posted:I tried finding the evidence for this but it's nearly impossible now due to the footage of blown up Russian convoys being literally everywhere. That said, I do recall at least several long videos showing obliterated/abandoned battalion-sized Ukrainian columns on the very first day of invasion, which is why I'm assuming they haven't been actually moving much since then. At least, not on that operational level. Of course, I might be very wrong on this, and I guess we'll find out at some point in the future. There is about a 1.5 km convoy outside of Kherson that got smoked a few days ago. I dont think they're doing a movement war anymore basically.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:19
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nurmie posted:I tried finding the evidence for this but it's nearly impossible now due to the footage of blown up Russian convoys being literally everywhere. That said, I do recall at least several long videos showing obliterated/abandoned battalion-sized Ukrainian columns on the very first day of invasion, which is why I'm assuming they haven't been actually moving much since then. At least, not on that operational level. Of course, I might be very wrong on this, and I guess we'll find out at some point in the future. Pro-Russian sources show similar individual wrecks, groups of bodiesand POWs, so it is hard to determine the actual numbers just from scrolling twitter
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Feb 28, 2022 15:19
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Failed Imagineer posted:He's probably insanely correct about hyperinflation in Europe and elsewhere coming soon. While I'm v concerned about the war, I also need to spend some time sending emails to re-fix my mortgage rate before it's too late wherever you are getting your economic info from you should stop reading if you think hyperinflation is coming anywhere but russia that said interest rates are insanely low so yes absolutely get a fixed rate asap as it’s going to go up
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Feb 28, 2022 15:20
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Well looks like I was spot-on! I'll do a reverse  and donate not 50$ but 100$ to a Ukrainian relief charity.https://twitter.com/andrewfeinberg/status/1498294560824467461?s=21 Context: go play outside Skyler posted:We are giving time to our Russian customers to leave our country and take their money out before we "of course" follow the rest of the world.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:20
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Alchenar posted:This is a really long thread but I think unfortunately has it right: I think it's right that the dug-in parts in Eastern Ukraine will need to move soon. I'm more skeptical that Russia will be able to swiftly advance and cut everything off on both sides of the river. It's a bit unclear how secure the Russian position is on the west bank of the Dniepr, and Kharkiv still doesn't seem to be encircled yet, never mind the Russians having the forces to take the Kharkiv region troops south to meet up with the ones coming from Crimea.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:20
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go play outside Skyler posted:Well looks like I was spot-on! Lol
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Feb 28, 2022 15:21
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FishBulbia posted:There is about a 1.5 km convoy outside of Kherson that got smoked a few days ago. I dont think they're doing a movement war anymore basically. Yes, but the Russians have moved way past Kherson 100-200kms in the last 1-2 days.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:21
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Blows my mind that people treat the Wikipedia map red zones as fortress russia when the blue side is entirely not even on the map
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Feb 28, 2022 15:23
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Alchenar posted:This is a really long thread but I think unfortunately has it right: That's just how it is? The bad guys get to win yet again? Also, who is this person? Crows Turn Off fucked around with this message at 15:27 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 15:24
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FishBulbia posted:There is about a 1.5 km convoy outside of Kherson that got smoked a few days ago. I dont think they're doing a movement war anymore basically. Just look at the Russian advances on a map, this would be obvious if you were familiar with Deep Battle 
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Feb 28, 2022 15:24
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Randarkman posted:Just look at the Russian advances on a map, this would be obvious if you were familiar with Deep Battle You drew penises
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Feb 28, 2022 15:25
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ethanol posted:You drew penises war is all about drawing penises on a map, basically
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Feb 28, 2022 15:26
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russian oligarch private jet tracker. Kinda crazy that these guys don't stop at one jet. Perhaps after this the UK gov will actually do something about all the dirty money in London and the UK/weird ex imperial island statelets financial systems (lol no they won't) https://twitter.com/RUOligarchJets/status/1497739735753658371?t=XdxRENFg85D5_yoEk5JonA&s=19
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Feb 28, 2022 15:26
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Timeless Appeal posted:I do think people are getting into the high of Putin being so definitively in the wrong and the Ukrainians being objectively brave or Poland being bold that sort of the less savory parts of things get smoothed over. There are actors on the good guy side who are not good guys. Zelenskyy is both a man who is boldly standing up to Putin and was pretty easily bullied by Trump. The propaganda game in support of Ukraine has been truly incredible. There has been some actual propaganda sent out by the government but a lot of it is just photos of the area (or any area with soldiers from the last 20 years with a soviet filter on it) and just allowing people to extrapolate on from there. That isn't necessarily a terrible thing for a justified defense. But I have to admit that seeing people go "who cares if it's faked, it's good for morale" so casually is kind of terrifying. We already live in an age of disinformation and as soon as something kicked off all critical thinking went straight out the window. Zelenskyy is the poster child for this kind of effect. There are tons of people out there that are doing everything up to naming their firstborn after him, a politician they probably never heard of before last week. Yeah he is being very brave and not fleeing when given the chance, but holy gently caress is it over the top.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:26
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Crows Turn Off posted:This basically says that Russia will get what they want and the world will face energy and financial issues I'm the coming future. It's just another guy on twitter doing a Solid Reckon and is about as valuable in isolation as any other thing you read on there, i.e. not very.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:26
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Alchenar posted:This is a really long thread but I think unfortunately has it right: i agree with parts of it especially the "Putin will probably catch a bullet if he goes fully clancy" but i suspect Ukraine probably wont just surrender and Europe/US will find alternatives to keep sanctions up on various stuff. also them trying to go full grozny will gently caress Russia deeply. Stabbey_the_Clown posted:I think it's right that the dug-in parts in Eastern Ukraine will need to move soon. I'm more skeptical that Russia will be able to swiftly advance and cut everything off on both sides of the river. It's a bit unclear how secure the Russian position is on the west bank of the Dniepr, and Kharkiv still doesn't seem to be encircled yet, never mind the Russians having the forces to take the Kharkiv region troops south to meet up with the ones coming from Crimea. yeah i dont think russia is gonna blitzkrieg through poo poo now. they have no rear eschalons clearing stuff out and the second they start trying to treat Ukraine like Syria poo poo gets way worse for them best bet is try to declare victory and settle for a status quo. Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 15:28 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 15:26
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Crows Turn Off posted:That's just how it is? The bad guys get to win yet again? That's essentially how it's been for all of human history
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Feb 28, 2022 15:28
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More verification of the mercenaries story, including from the merc company itself. Though it sounds like they may not be working with Putin in this particular war again (left guys to die and harder to get paid by a country with no economy). https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498246394607513600?t=kS4EBlK6tXWVVsaYmwqcNg&s=19
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Feb 28, 2022 15:28
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evilweasel posted:wherever you are getting your economic info from you should stop reading if you think hyperinflation is coming anywhere but russia Yeah I think he goes a bit hyperbolic on the economic points but even if he wasn't my response would be 'that's the cost worth paying'. Most likely outcome is that Russia wins but has to churn through an awful lot of its precision weapon stockpiles and high-end kit to do it, if we are diving into Cold War Mk2 then the least painful option for the world is one in which Russia is unable to rearm and convincingly threaten anyone else.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:29
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https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498295422036680715 my guess is no peace yet.
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Feb 28, 2022 15:30
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Alchenar posted:e: I would agree that I don't think the thread is entirtely accurate but I think it is closer to reality than some of the optimistic takes that have been flying around about the Russian army collapsing. They're winning, but Ukraine is making them pay for it. I agree, actually - but I'm wondering what the endgame over the next month (say) could be. Given the numbers on the ground, those red regions on the map include large numbers of unsecured towns and villages with essentially unknowable numbers of territorial militia, who won't make themselves known to face down a battalion but which means that the Russians don't have the back line the map implies either, whilst at the same time it still being true that they can encircle and destroy any UA formations at will that creeping descent into insurgency, that is to say I speculated previously that the UA may find itself holding out longer than civilians who need pedestrian things like 'food' or 'employment' and would be inclined to pick up and move to the relative stability of the western region anyway. And then why defend a shell?
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Feb 28, 2022 15:32
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Negotiations are over, for today right? Right?
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