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Have we seen any evidence at all about the destroyed ships?
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Mar 1, 2022 09:45
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OgNar posted:Just remember losses doesnt mean death or destroyed. I have to reiterate how useless a casualty count done be an opposing side is, especially in a conflict as chaotic as this. Equipment losses can be a lot more reliable, because it be corroborated by a varierty of sources after the fact. Trump fucked around with this message at 09:52 on Mar 1, 2022 |
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Mar 1, 2022 09:50
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Sanguinia posted:lol I know insanely little about European politics and even I know that the idea that the US is promoting conflict in Europe because otherwise Russia would dominate Germany and France and create a European Super-bloc to challenge the US is nonsense. Aside from the inherent silliness of this proposition, do they not think the UK, or Turkey, or Poland might have some feelings or influence in this supposed Russo-Hegemonic European Consensus based on their geography/relative wealth/relative militarization within the Eurosphere? Hell, SPAIN has a bigger economy than Russia does, maybe they'll dominate France and Germany first. Yeah, no need for the US to promote conflict in Europe, most countries here do a pretty good job of that themselves. It just seems that take is 100% through the lens of someone sitting in China and having a slighty vague idea of the history of the Europe.
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Mar 1, 2022 09:50
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Dick Ripple posted:Thinking Putin will nuke insurgents in Ukraine is going beyond Clancy chat. Anyways, he has the Chechens to do all the dirty urban combat work for him. I know several o-3-5 that have noted that they think there's a non insignificant chance that tactical nuclear weapons could be deployed if Putin feels objectives aren't being met. Anecdotal I know, but to completely dismiss the notion is also quite foolish.
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Mar 1, 2022 09:55
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Dick Ripple posted:Yeah, no need for the US to promote conflict in Europe, most countries here do a pretty good job of that themselves. It just seems that take is 100% through the lens of someone sitting in China and having a slighty vague idea of the history of the Europe. I feel like they're entitled to have that. God knows the opposite example of that has been applied countless times by Western analysts, commentators and policy-makers.
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Mar 1, 2022 09:59
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trawling through Telegram, this got posted so of course grain of salt and verification needed. "The Dumskaya newspaper managed to contact the relatives of several Russian marines of the 810th Brigade of the Russian Federation, which is stationed in the occupied Crimea. According to them, large amphibious ships were going to dock at the Luzanovsky beach, which was mined and blocked by anti-tank hedgehogs, having previously worked in the vicinity from multiple launch rocket systems. At the same time, enemy helicopters and a large number of UAVs were flying in the Gulf. The Ukrainian air defense and other defenders of Odessa were preparing to give a decisive rebuff to the enemy, but at the very last moment the Russians got in touch and asked to be given the opportunity to leave the bay. According to reports, a real riot took place on Russian ships: Russian men refused to carry out the order and storm the coast of Odessa. Russian soldiers, take an example from your comrades! "
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Mar 1, 2022 10:02
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Well I'm glad that the use of tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine is only moderately insane clancychat now and not pants-on-head idiotic nonsense. 2022 going great, I'm stoked for more of this
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Mar 1, 2022 10:04
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https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1498581374562877445 I want to believe.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:06
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Zat posted:https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1498581374562877445 He's spooked that if he sends his army too far away from Minsk, he'll get overthrown. That may be just him being paranoid, but hey, that's Batka. e: ...but then he denies that Russian troops have struck from Belarussian territory, which is an odd thing to claim.  Maybe trying to wriggle out from under sanctions? Majorian fucked around with this message at 10:11 on Mar 1, 2022 |
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Mar 1, 2022 10:08
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Zat posted:https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1498581374562877445 ...Didn't they already?
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Mar 1, 2022 10:08
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Zat posted:https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1498581374562877445 I read the original statement and I think his wording was kinda aimed at Putin "this wasnt our deal" kind of thing.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:10
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Small White Dragon posted:...Didn't they already? Actively on Ukraine soil? Not as far as I'm aware. Anything relating to Putin can't legally (by SA law) be labelled paranoia. That man is simply too unhinged.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:11
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Dick Ripple posted:Yeah, no need for the US to promote conflict in Europe, most countries here do a pretty good job of that themselves. It just seems that take is 100% through the lens of someone sitting in China and having a slighty vague idea of the history of the Europe. It's not really all that different to when people start talking about the Yuan dynasty and how it affects current Chinese state policy. It'd be the equivalent of saying "What is the Holy Roman Empire and why does it have such influence on the EU today" . It's all people reading tea leaves at least a little bit.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:11
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Majorian posted:He's spooked that if he sends his army too far away from Minsk, he'll get overthrown. That may be just him being paranoid, but hey, that's Batka. Maybe that's part of the reason it's been "quiet" aroudn Kyiv and mostly just vicious artillery strikes? Wasn't word of the day (if that was true) that some Belarusian paratroopers were going to be fed into the maws of hell? That is Belarusian troops were going to play some decisive role in an assault and that fell through and the assault didn't happen.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:11
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Small White Dragon posted:...Didn't they already? Not that we know of. Russia uses Belarusian territory to march on Kyiv, and allegedly Belarusian hospitals treat wounded Russian soldiers.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:12
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Randarkman posted:Maybe that's part of the reason it's been "quiet" aroudn Kyiv and mostly just vicious artillery strikes? Wasn't word of the day (if that was true) that some Belarusian paratroopers were going to be fed into the maws of hell? That is Belarusian troops were going to play some decisive role in an assault and that fell through and the assault didn't happen. No, that was russian forces staging out of belarus
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Mar 1, 2022 10:23
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There was some speculation that Belarusian army maneuvers near Korbyn were prep to go in, but nothing about crossing the border that I've seen. https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1498247891034554372
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Mar 1, 2022 10:24
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A tactical nuclear strike just seems like such an unlikely outcome. Doesn't Cold War era MAD thinking still reign for a single nuclear strike will result in other countries retaliating, so you either need to go all in or just not fire the first one.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:25
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Herstory Begins Now posted:No, that was russian forces staging out of belarus There were definitely reports of Belarusian paratroopers preparing to cross the border or something.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:25
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ronya posted:https://twitter.com/StimsonCenter/status/1498368715909435395 Would be interested to know if this person also thinks Ireland should "naturally" be dominated by the larger, more powerful nation of Britain to produce a larger global power? Imperalists should at least be consistent. A lot of hard work must go into producing a take that bad.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:26
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Randarkman posted:There were definitely reports of Belarusian paratroopers preparing to cross the border or something. sure and supposedly chechens might have crossed too, but afaik at least 90% of everything staged out of belarus so far is russian, and likely significantly more than that. The significance of forces crossing out of belarus is that they're close to kiev more than anything else.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:27
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Josef bugman posted:It'd be the equivalent of saying "What is the Holy Roman Empire and why does it have such influence on the EU today" . When you think about it, the balance between individual national sovereignty and the overarching EU is simply a reiteration of the HRE’s doctrine of Landeshoheit and furthermore…
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Mar 1, 2022 10:28
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The Glumslinger posted:A tactical nuclear strike just seems like such an unlikely outcome. Doesn't Cold War era MAD thinking still reign for a single nuclear strike will result in other countries retaliating, so you either need to go all in or just not fire the first one. MAD only applies to other nuclear armed nations and members of formal alliances. Ukraine isn't covered and I personally (not backed up by anything obviously since we're discussing completely uncharted territory) think it's extremely unlikely that NATO would nuke Russia if Russia nuked Ukraine. As much of a horrific escalation as a Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine would be, a NATO nuclear attack on Russia in response would be another.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:30
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Lukashenko has to be feeling the pressure a bit. Not only has he to be well aware of the risk of a colour revolution if it looks like the security forces aren't able to control the streets, but if it looks like his regime is getting wobbly then he also faces the risk of getting taken out and replaced by Putin.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:32
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Alchenar posted:Lukashenko has to be feeling the pressure a bit. Not only has he to be well aware of the risk of a colour revolution if it looks like the security forces aren't able to control the streets, but if it looks like his regime is getting wobbly then he also faces the risk of getting taken out and replaced by Putin.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:34
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Zephro posted:Another imperialist analysis from a big country that views people and other nations as pawns on a chessboard to be moved around for its own greater glory. Entirely no insight that the people of Ukraine (or France or Germany or Poland or Lithuania) might actually not want to be Russian, thanks, and might in fact feel strongly enough about that to fight about it. It is also ahistorical, considering European history is all about Imperialist powers doing that exact stuff all over the world for like 300 years. If anything, russian history is that of a continental power that has destabilized the baltic and eastern europe for centuries by counteracting Germany, The Ottomans, and Poland.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:36
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Some more reports out of telegram "The authorities in Chernihiv claim that Belarusian units entered the territory of the region. They have not yet published any confirmation of this information."
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Mar 1, 2022 10:37
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Ukr government reports Belarusian troops have entered Chernihiv region https://twitter.com/verkhovna_rada/status/1498591541920686082?s=20&t=4ULYezhsIFBYjrI-q_ppEA
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Mar 1, 2022 10:38
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Batka gonna slip and fall out of a window if keeps that poo poo up much longer 
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Mar 1, 2022 10:39
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Nessus posted:With what army? This is the perfect time to start telling Putin to go gently caress himself. If Putin ends up pulling the military from the far east, let's hope they start doing that. It was only two years ago that the far east had anti-Putin protests with 30,000+ people. They hate him.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:43
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Nessus posted:With what army? This is the perfect time to start telling Putin to go gently caress himself. Don't expect Luka to start thinking pragmatically.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:43
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Lukashenko does not survive without Kremlin support. All Russia has to do is stop feeding him cheap oil and gas and the regime falls apart and he ends up hanging from a lamppost. He's well aware of that and Putin is well aware of that. As I've posted before, he knows he is running a client state and stays within the lane of options he has open to him.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:46
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Nessus posted:With what army? This is the perfect time to start telling Putin to go gently caress himself. If he tells Putin to pound sand then he will have no benefactors in the future, he only survived the 2020 election protests thanks to Russian intervention.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:51
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Belarus invading Ukraine. This is straight out of some dystopian sci-fi. 10 years ago this would have sounded as absurd as USA invading Canada
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Mar 1, 2022 10:52
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wasn't the Milk War exactly Lukashenko waiting for a moment of Putin's vulnerability (2008 war with Georgia) to pick a fight and extract concessions it's possible to be too enamoured of one's self-image as a master puppeteer, to be sure
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Mar 1, 2022 10:52
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The French are not leaving anything to interpretation: https://twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/1498579991977725952
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Mar 1, 2022 10:53
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There is no possible way that Azov battalion was worth it to the Ukrainian state, for all the absolutely stunningly extensive mileage that Russia gets out of being able to mention it every other sentence. I`m looking for articles to understand why they were brought into the National Guard. And what they've been defending this week. I have to imagine that Poroshenko regrets it. And also where the "Kyiv leaders=drug addicts" claim is rooted from.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:55
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They were brought into national guard because Ukraine was in civil war brought about by Russia.
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Mar 1, 2022 10:57
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wukkar posted:There is no possible way that Azov battalion was worth it to the Ukrainian state, for all the absolutely stunningly extensive mileage that Russia gets out of being able to mention it every other sentence. Ukraine has just released everyone from prison to fight for clemency. The desperation of squaring the metrics of the forces arrayed unfortunately means unsavoury choices about how they secure the continuity of their state, getting ultranationalists and other extremists to fight for you is one of those choices. So is an open invitation to any foreign fighters. So is having prisoner battalions.
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Mar 1, 2022 11:01
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I'm struggling to look at the world right now and conclude 'Russia has successfully engendered mixed feelings about Ukraine through propaganda'. The only people who really knew or cared about the Azov batallions were: a) Western military/diplomatic policy people and this did actually effect military support and cooperation with Ukraine b) People who regularly read Russian propaganda, who were frankly always going to look for a reason to apologise for Russia. Azov just wasn't part of the discourse anywhere else.
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Mar 1, 2022 11:02
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