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StarBegotten
Mar 23, 2016

Interesting update just now posted on the BBC News website about the Russian column approaching Kyiv.

"Close analysis of the latest satellite images by McKenzie Intelligence Services reveals the following:

The convoy is not 40 miles long, it’s a series of logistical ‘packets’ strung out along a major highway from the Belarus border, aiming to link up with Russian units on the northern outskirts of Kyiv.

The convoy appears to be hampered in several places by broken down vehicles.

The column consists of some armour (tanks) and infantry fighting vehicles but mainly logistical vehicles, implying plans for more than just a brief battle."

StarBegotten fucked around with this message at 17:42 on Mar 1, 2022

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KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Russian source on how soldiers were coerced to re-sign contracts and lied to about where they were being deployed

https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1498661923117805575?t=VRgag9KElCqhwTLJxvog9A&s=19

Direct article link.

It's a tough read

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

All my extended family in Hungary are the absolute worst sort of Putin and Orban lovers. Outright saying Ukrainians are mostly welcome here because unlike muslims they don't "rape all our women" but they still have a chance of becoming "parasites on our economy" This was has really cemented the fact that basically all my european relatives are kinda poo poo :(

Also, since they're hungarian, they absolutely can't loving shut up about how horribly treated hungarians are in Ukraine and how their land was stolen to be given a fake country. Also what about the land Romania stole from Hungary? Why is no one talking about hungarian clay?!?!

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Never mind, Ukraine might start doing something about that column sooner than I thought

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1498700049815117824?t=UNIZW1LbEaHvakMwteooRA&s=19

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Youth Decay posted:

Don't interrupt your enemy while they are making a mistake etc. etc.

Eh… the convoy is publicly at or over 20 miles way from line of contact. UKR artillery cannot shoot over 20 miles.

It’s technically rocket science but it’s very, very simple rocket science.

morothar
Dec 21, 2005

Baronjutter posted:

All my extended family in Hungary are the absolute worst sort of Putin and Orban lovers. Outright saying Ukrainians are mostly welcome here because unlike muslims they don't "rape all our women" but they still have a chance of becoming "parasites on our economy" This was has really cemented the fact that basically all my european relatives are kinda poo poo :(

Same. My mother keeps trying to rub in my face how welcoming Poland is to the Ukrainians, and how everybody has to recognize that relative to the critique from a few years ago.
Er, no? Ukrainians obviously pass the paper bag test. And even the fact that military-age Ukrainians aren’t fleeing, but staying in the country - yeah sure, Ukraine has a functioning government, and a single, obvious enemy. Not civil war.

Ashmole
Oct 5, 2008

This wish was granted by Former DILF

Baronjutter posted:

All my extended family in Hungary are the absolute worst sort of Putin and Orban lovers. Outright saying Ukrainians are mostly welcome here because unlike muslims they don't "rape all our women" but they still have a chance of becoming "parasites on our economy" This was has really cemented the fact that basically all my european relatives are kinda poo poo :(

Also, since they're hungarian, they absolutely can't loving shut up about how horribly treated hungarians are in Ukraine and how their land was stolen to be given a fake country. Also what about the land Romania stole from Hungary? Why is no one talking about hungarian clay?!?!

I did an exercise with the Hungarian army last summer. There were some Ukrainian paratroopers who were apart of the exercise. The Hungarians refused to interact with them because of that.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Can someone who knows weapons explain this thing a bit? Is it one of the thermobaric weapons that people have been talking about or some smaller, less destructive version?

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1498697710429425672?t=UUN9phHuMcKoCQKtQQkEVg&s=19

ryde
Sep 9, 2011

God I love young girls
This tweet had a zoom-in on that map that Lukashenka showed:

https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1498674777032114184/photo/1

Is one of those red troop movement areas moving into Moldova?

Postorder Trollet89
Jan 12, 2008
Sweden doesn't do religion. But if they did, it would probably be the best religion in the world.

KitConstantine posted:

Can someone who knows weapons explain this thing a bit? Is it one of the thermobaric weapons that people have been talking about or some smaller, less destructive version?

Thermobaric weapons rely on atmospheric oxygen to detonate, and as a result produce much higher yields.

A regular explosive is made up of maybe 50% oxidizer, which reduces the yield per pound.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

KitConstantine posted:

Can someone who knows weapons explain this thing a bit? Is it one of the thermobaric weapons that people have been talking about or some smaller, less destructive version?

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1498697710429425672?t=UUN9phHuMcKoCQKtQQkEVg&s=19

No, that is the system.

freeasinbeer
Mar 26, 2015

by Fluffdaddy

KitConstantine posted:

Can someone who knows weapons explain this thing a bit? Is it one of the thermobaric weapons that people have been talking about or some smaller, less destructive version?

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1498697710429425672?t=UUN9phHuMcKoCQKtQQkEVg&s=19

It’s the artillery version, there are also airdropped bombs and maybe missiles?

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

KitConstantine posted:

Can someone who knows weapons explain this thing a bit? Is it one of the thermobaric weapons that people have been talking about or some smaller, less destructive version?

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1498697710429425672?t=UUN9phHuMcKoCQKtQQkEVg&s=19

Did they capture it, though? It seems like just a context-less photo of whatever that thing is.

Carnotaurus
Feb 27, 2006

meat-eating bull

ryde posted:

This tweet had a zoom-in on that map that Lukashenka showed:

https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1498674777032114184/photo/1

Is one of those red troop movement areas moving into Moldova?

Looks like they are going for Transnistria.

Valtonen
May 13, 2014

Tanks still suck but you don't gotta hand it to the Axis either.

CommieGIR posted:

No, that is the system.

If the pod gets hit by a tank shell the difference between weapon and system becomes very fluid.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

ryde posted:

This tweet had a zoom-in on that map that Lukashenka showed:

https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1498674777032114184/photo/1

Is one of those red troop movement areas moving into Moldova?

......why does the map have the US 1st Cavalry division badge on it?

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe
:nms:

Explosion in the dark, no gore or people. From Kharkiv.

https://twitter.com/ua_industrial/status/1498693577811152898

ummel fucked around with this message at 17:54 on Mar 1, 2022

Ciprian Maricon
Feb 27, 2006



KitConstantine posted:

Can someone who knows weapons explain this thing a bit? Is it one of the thermobaric weapons that people have been talking about or some smaller, less destructive version?

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1498697710429425672?t=UUN9phHuMcKoCQKtQQkEVg&s=19

This is a platform Russia has used to fire thermobaric weapons. It is not the only platform that can do so, and not the only type of munitions this platform can use. But is the type of platform reportedly used.

Gervasius
Nov 2, 2010



Grimey Drawer

KitConstantine posted:

Can someone who knows weapons explain this thing a bit? Is it one of the thermobaric weapons that people have been talking about or some smaller, less destructive version?

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1498697710429425672?t=UUN9phHuMcKoCQKtQQkEVg&s=19

Yes, it is a short range thermobaric rocket launcher that russians call "flamethrower" because :ussr:

There is a ton of thermobaric weapons, from small RPG warheads to huge air-dropped bombs, and pretty much every army in the world uses them.

The_Franz
Aug 8, 2003

ryde posted:

This tweet had a zoom-in on that map that Lukashenka showed:

https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1498674777032114184/photo/1

Is one of those red troop movement areas moving into Moldova?

Why is there a US First Air Calvary logo on there?

Mikojan
May 12, 2010

So it's quite possible, with what we've been shown so far, that Russian troops are getting demoralised and abandoning their equipment. Together with the abysmal logistical issues Russia is seeing, would there be a breaking point where their house of cards just tumbles and troops desert en masse?

I'm grasping for hope here.

Dante
Feb 8, 2003

People who know drones, are all Bayraktar TB2's controlled exclusively via the Türksat satellite system? It strikes me that this is an interesting precedent in terms of war assistance by NATO if the drone strikes are literally happening through a NATO member's state-owned satellite system.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

i mean its 40 miles long. probably have breakdowns and ambushes and other convoy poo poo. plus bad logistics with poo poo allies.


ryde posted:

This tweet had a zoom-in on that map that Lukashenka showed:

https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1498674777032114184/photo/1

Is one of those red troop movement areas moving into Moldova?

probably spoilers for a new surprise front.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Concerned Citizen posted:

Did they capture it, though? It seems like just a context-less photo of whatever that thing is.

The guy who posted has been verifying (with a very high accuracy rate) everything he's posting. He's keeping a documented list of every piece of equipment lost by either side that he can verify with evidence. If he says it's been captured its captured.

Link to his list for the curious: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1

Also the Russians haven't been posting equipment photos like that, and I doubt they would post a picture of a weapons platform just sitting in the mud themselves.

Edit: the dude has been doing the same with equipment in Syria, this isn't his first rodeo

KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 17:57 on Mar 1, 2022

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




freeasinbeer posted:

It’s the artillery version, there are also airdropped bombs and maybe missiles?

"thermobaric" just means a bomb with fuel. You can drop a big one from a plane, or shoot 24 small ones from this artillery shotgun, or do 80 other things with it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ei0QMdeMSYA

Gervasius
Nov 2, 2010



Grimey Drawer

ryde posted:

This tweet had a zoom-in on that map that Lukashenka showed:

https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1498674777032114184/photo/1

Is one of those red troop movement areas moving into Moldova?

Uh, is Batka trying to fight US 1st Cavalry? Because that symbol on top right: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1st_Cavalry_Division_(United_States)

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

The_Franz posted:

Why is there a US First Air Calvary logo on there?

Biggest ever anime betrayal

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22
Is some element of the division deployed in Eastern Europe right now?

DaysBefore
Jan 24, 2019

That map also has Ukraine divided in to 3 zones, presumably matching the three letters the Russians have been using on their trucks etc. While there's no way I'm going to believe that anyone, even Lukashenko, is that incompetent it seems like a decent bet that it is the actual plan. In which case Moldova you should prob mobilise the reservists to be safe.

Valtonen
May 13, 2014

Tanks still suck but you don't gotta hand it to the Axis either.

The_Franz posted:

Why is there a US First Air Calvary logo on there?

The current rotational ABCT in Europe is from Dark Horse. They are soon gonna add the Broken TV of 3ID on those presentations too.

It doesnt mean Its ”we are atttacking these” Its ”hey, important information contextually, If you see people with this patch you are in Poland and shouldnt be there”

Ciprian Maricon
Feb 27, 2006



cinci zoo sniper posted:

"thermobaric" just means a bomb with fuel. You can drop a big one from a plane, or shoot 24 small ones from this artillery shotgun, or do 80 other things with it.

tehcnically thermobaric means, its all fuel and it uses oxygen in the air for the chemistry of the combustion, conventional explosives include oxidizers along with the fuel

a pipe smoking dog
Jan 25, 2010

"haha, dogs can't smoke!"

ryde posted:

This tweet had a zoom-in on that map that Lukashenka showed:

https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1498674777032114184/photo/1

Is one of those red troop movement areas moving into Moldova?

I assumed that they would definitely at least move into transniestra.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

DaysBefore posted:

That map also has Ukraine divided in to 3 zones, presumably matching the three letters the Russians have been using on their trucks etc. While there's no way I'm going to believe that anyone, even Lukashenko, is that incompetent it seems like a decent bet that it is the actual plan. In which case Moldova you should prob mobilise the reservists to be safe.

well i am sure the Ukrainians and everyone else know it now.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Ciprian Maricon posted:

tehcnically thermobaric means, its all fuel and it uses oxygen in the air for the chemistry of the combustion, conventional explosives include oxidizers along with the fuel

Technically it means heatpressure!

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


HappyHippo posted:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969707004986?via%3Dihub

They use decimals in other places in the abstract. Seems like you calculated it correctly.

quote:

At the study site, the main part of the contaminant inventory occurs in the upper 20 cm of the topsoil which is essentially composed of combustion residues.

Yeah... that's less "the soil is contaminated" and more "this pile of toxic waste is so big it's basically just the ground now"

KillHour fucked around with this message at 18:02 on Mar 1, 2022

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



This poo poo is why when people were saying yesterday "but the Russians have more troops and tanks!" I was pointing out their key problem is logistics:

Doesn't matter if you have fancy poo poo and tank columns if your troops have no fuel, no food, and aren't being paid

Yeah Russian units are surrendering: their Sdpply convoys are in warcraft 3 levels of stacked unit traffic jams waiting for drone or javelin strikes

Lmao at the Mil Chuds who told me about the "indestructable Russian army" in college: eat poo poo chuds

Fun fact: if your supplies are already running out (because you can't buy anything to restock because you have a Zimbabwe tier economy) more troops and columns just mean everyone starves/ runs out of fuel faster.

More bodies mean nothing if they aren't eating.

TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 18:31 on Mar 1, 2022

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe
The Russian army got doxxed (although less than a full doxx).

https://twitter.com/RidT/status/1498692537741025284

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

ryde posted:

This tweet had a zoom-in on that map that Lukashenka showed:

https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1498674777032114184/photo/1

Is one of those red troop movement areas moving into Moldova?

Yep, looks Transnistria may be officially a part of Russia sooner rather than later.

Starks
Sep 24, 2006

there are already Russian soldiers in transnistria which is why it’s been highlighted as a “front” on a bunch of maps of the conflict.

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jettisonedstuff
Apr 9, 2006

KitConstantine posted:

Theory, so I don't get yelled at:

There's tons of video and pictures of supply trucks that have been acquired, destroyed, or abandoned. Why waste fire on a convoy that is running out of fuel and food?

What do you think is on those trucks if not fuel and food?

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