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Jolly Jumbuck posted:Out of curiosity, why is this invasion being taken so much more seriously than the 2008 invasion of Georgia or even the 2014 attack on Ukraine? Is it the magnitude of this attack or different feelings of Russian anti-sentiment or something else? It's a lot more robust and it came with two months of buildup, along with apocalyptic messaging from the Kremlin.
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Mar 4, 2022 14:35
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Jolly Jumbuck posted:Out of curiosity, why is this invasion being taken so much more seriously than the 2008 invasion of Georgia or even the 2014 attack on Ukraine? Is it the magnitude of this attack or different feelings of Russian anti-sentiment or something else? It's an all out war and Putin is leveling Ukrainian cities.
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Mar 4, 2022 14:35
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PerilPastry posted:He was much firmer on this point than I'd feared. Good news. Guess NATO does retain some institutional memory from the cold war days in terms of what lines not to cross. I disagree; at this point, were I NATO I would be offering concrete public guarantees to non-NATO states in Europe. For example, I wouldn’t just say, “Sweden and Finland are always at the table,” I would also say, “in the interests of confining Putin’s war to the Ukraine, NATO guarantees the sovereignty of Finland and Sweden and will come to the aid of either if attacked by Russia or Belarus.” It’s also about fixing a red line for the other guy not to cross, even if that line is slightly outside the official boundaries of NATO. Of course, I am not paid to be the leader of any NATO country, so grain of salt.
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Mar 4, 2022 14:35
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KitConstantine posted:Clouds finally cleared enough to get a clear picture of the column north of Kyiv - still a parking lot. And you can see where ambushed equipment had to be dragged off the road in a few areas to keep moving forward. It’s so weird having commercial recon satellites now. I don’t really understand them, how are they making so many passes over ukraine before being out of position? I read stuff about how maxar technologies passes images to the pentagon who don’t mind both getting the images and not being the ones publicly releasing their own images in situations like this. But are there actual laws for what they can publicly release? (Maxar not the pentagon)
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Mar 4, 2022 14:36
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Jolly Jumbuck posted:Out of curiosity, why is this invasion being taken so much more seriously than the 2008 invasion of Georgia or even the 2014 attack on Ukraine? Is it the magnitude of this attack or different feelings of Russian anti-sentiment or something else? Perhaps because this war has the explicit goal of conquering the country and replacing its government. The previous invasions of Georgia and Ukraine only aimed at taking smaller fringes of the countries, which were left under the notional control of local Russian-speaking populations, and left the rest of the state intact.
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Mar 4, 2022 14:38
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Tuna-Fish posted:Yeah. People keep asking when the Russian people are going to overthrow Putin. For many reasons, this is very unlikely. However, Lukashenko's position is much, much shakier. Invade Ukraine, blow up your army, isolate yourself from the world, lose Belarus to a possible revolt Ah well, win some lose some! 
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Mar 4, 2022 14:39
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Jolly Jumbuck posted:Out of curiosity, why is this invasion being taken so much more seriously than the 2008 invasion of Georgia or even the 2014 attack on Ukraine? Is it the magnitude of this attack or different feelings of Russian anti-sentiment or something else? A lot of reasons, not least of them racism (Ukrainians present as white Europeans to the west) and technological change (Ukraine is much more integrated with western economies) plus differences in size and scope (invading a subregion like Crimea is different from a war of total conquest) and differences in leadership (Zelensky has pitched his country's story better than the last guy did).
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Mar 4, 2022 14:39
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KitConstantine posted:Clouds finally cleared enough to get a clear picture of the column north of Kyiv - still a parking lot. And you can see where ambushed equipment had to be dragged off the road in a few areas to keep moving forward. I love the random helicopter out in the field.
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Mar 4, 2022 14:40
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slowdave posted:It's an all out war and Putin is leveling Ukrainian cities. The reaction was far above those previous invasions before he started leveling cities. You could write many books and academic papers to answer Jolly Jumbuck's question, but I think the the answer is a mix of size of the invasion, size of the invaded country, very public build-up and less and less western tolerance of Putin, partly because of those previous invasions.
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Mar 4, 2022 14:41
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KitConstantine posted:Clouds finally cleared enough to get a clear picture of the column north of Kyiv - still a parking lot. And you can see where ambushed equipment had to be dragged off the road in a few areas to keep moving forward. The smell must be hellish
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Mar 4, 2022 14:42
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ZombieLenin posted:I disagree; at this point, were I NATO I would be offering concrete public guarantees to non-NATO states in Europe. You know, if Finns and Swdes wanted that protection, they could have it by just joining NATO - they would be welcomed with open arms. Making claims of "protecting" states that do not want it sounds quite imperialistic and agressive for a defensive alliance
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Mar 4, 2022 14:42
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ZombieLenin posted:I disagree; at this point, were I NATO I would be offering concrete public guarantees to non-NATO states in Europe. There is no-one in NATO who has the authority to make that decision without first going to the legislature of every member. NATO cannot and will not make such guarantees. The only party that is reasonably able to do is is basically the USA. Everyone else would potentially lose too much.
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Mar 4, 2022 14:43
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ZombieLenin posted:I disagree; at this point, were I NATO I would be offering concrete public guarantees to non-NATO states in Europe. Having your borders protected by NATO is just being in NATO without paying dues. Those nations can enter into the alliance if they want but boundaries are boundaries and they need to sign the treaty if they want something concrete.
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Mar 4, 2022 14:45
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Not to be outdone by tractors pulling away tanks, APCs and self propelled AA vehicles, these lads have attached something (an artillery piece?) to their Dnepr motorcyle: https://twitter.com/dohuyaUmnyi/status/1499725455288582149 I'm perfectly happy with farmers pulling military equipment away becoming a meme of the war, because much of the rest is tragic.
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Mar 4, 2022 14:46
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Samopsa posted:I find it weird that 'no-fly zone'-talk is being done like it's some kind of neutral thing. It isn't, it's a way to control the airspace, is a relatively new term in warfare, and all official no-fly zones so far were part of a war (Iraq invasions, Bosnia civil war, Libya civil war). I think people are conflating the term with prohibited airspace, which is commonly and regularly used for all sorts of reasons. A no-fly zone is historically only set up over enemy/foreign territory and is basically just a way to put air supremacy into writing so they can make it into an UN resolution. No it's because no-fly zones have become a favorite way of conducting a limited intervention. The US can usually achieve air superiority pretty easily so it's very low-risk and the fact you can't actually take territory from the air helps reduce the risk of escalation. I would assume the latter is especially why it keeps coming up. It's theoretically a way the west could intervene kinetically without (as much of) a risk of nuclear war kicking off. "Theoretically" is doing a *lot* of heavy lifting there to be sure, but I could see something like that being structured so that Russia doesn't think it's worth it to contest. For example if it was limited to the Western parts of Ukraine that aren't currently seeing any fighting. NATO could probably make some excuse under article 4 grounds about the threat to Poland/Baltics, and needing to expand their air defense zone outside their border and over friendly countries. I still don't think it's going to happen but there is a narrow path there. Of course I thought the same exact thing about stopping the Russians from rolling Kyiv and here we are watching them tight-rope that path exactly.
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Mar 4, 2022 14:46
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ZombieLenin posted:I disagree; at this point, were I NATO I would be offering concrete public guarantees to non-NATO states in Europe. If they want NATO protection they can join, extending that protection to non-members is antithetical to NATO's existence.
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Mar 4, 2022 14:47
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:A lot of reasons, not least of them racism (Ukrainians present as white Europeans to the west) and technological change (Ukraine is much more integrated with western economies) plus differences in size and scope (invading a subregion like Crimea is different from a war of total conquest) and differences in leadership (Zelensky has pitched his country's story better than the last guy did). According to wikipedia the invasion of Georgia killed a total of about 350 people. It's just a completely different scale. Plus those things you said, plus the way the build-up got eyeballs on it before things kicked off, plus the sum total of Russian fuckery up to this point. Blue Footed Booby fucked around with this message at 14:51 on Mar 4, 2022 |
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Mar 4, 2022 14:48
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If it's true that China asked to delay the invasion until the olympics were over; did that delay affect the rollout with regard to the weather and the ground becoming mud instead of still being frozen enough to get the war machines to their destinations faster? Or was it an early thaw this year either way?
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Mar 4, 2022 14:49
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a podcast for cats posted:Not to be outdone by tractors pulling away tanks, APCs and self propelled AA vehicles, these lads have attached something (an artillery piece?) to their Dnepr motorcyle: Is that a howitzer? I've seen a ton of those pop up as captured.
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Mar 4, 2022 14:49
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Blue Footed Booby posted:According to wikipedia the invasion of Georgia killed a total of about 350 people. It's just a completely different scale. The invasion of Georgia was more like the border incursion in 2014, Russia hasn't really pulled something like Ukraine yet. This was new and bold. And dumb apparently.
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Mar 4, 2022 14:51
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KitConstantine posted:Is that a howitzer? I've seen a ton of those pop up as captured. Looks like a big mortar to me.
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Mar 4, 2022 14:51
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Jarmak posted:I would assume the latter is especially why it keeps coming up. It's theoretically a way the west could intervene kinetically without (as much of) a risk of nuclear war kicking off. "Theoretically" is doing a *lot* of heavy lifting there to be sure, but I could see something like that being structured so that Russia doesn't think it's worth it to contest. For example if it was limited to the Western parts of Ukraine that aren't currently seeing any fighting. Any such mission would have to include taking out AA sites in Russian territory. Taking these out is indistinguishable from preparing a nuclear first strike.
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Mar 4, 2022 14:52
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ZombieLenin posted:I disagree; at this point, were I NATO I would be offering concrete public guarantees to non-NATO states in Europe. Maybe read the EU treaty, which already includes a provision stronger than NATO article 5.
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Mar 4, 2022 14:52
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KitConstantine posted:Is that a howitzer? I've seen a ton of those pop up as captured. Looks like a 120mm heavy mortar. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S12_Sani
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Mar 4, 2022 14:54
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ronya posted:I think it's bad form for sitting opposition legislators to call for the assassination of foreign leaders but I would class it under the "lol" kind of response. Liberal societies have whacky legislators, so what else is new Well, I wouldn't say everyone in the west is "irrationally" attached to Ukraine as European. Rather, it's about a democratic state, which wants to join the EU which is a club of democratic states, but is being thwarted by a literal fascist invading without any legitimate cause who is also clearly doing civilian casualties, massive terror bombings, puppet governments, ethnic cleansing, the works. To be staunchly against said fascist invasion and for democracy is, I would contend, quite rational In other news, the Finnish president is meeting Biden (article in Finnish) in the US today. The article has some analysis on this. Apparenly Pres Niinistö will be the first head of state Biden meets with face to face after Russia invaded. Journo is saying this, and the whole meeting, is a signal that the US wants to support Finland. Most of the the rest is speculation about NATO membership. Interesting stuff but still speculation, for now The final thought there is that traditionally, during a crisis, the Finnish presidents have spoken with both the US and Russian heads of state, but this time we're not wasting any time talking with Putin, as that would not be in Finland's interests in any way. This is something of a blow for Putin since he can no longer point to Finland and say "see, we have decent relations with at least one EU country, therefore we're ok"
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Mar 4, 2022 14:55
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Sekhmnet posted:If it's true that China asked to delay the invasion until the olympics were over; did that delay affect the rollout with regard to the weather and the ground becoming mud instead of still being frozen enough to get the war machines to their destinations faster? Or was it an early thaw this year either way? China denies it but there are western sources saying that China had to have known of an upcoming invasion given conversations that were had. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/us/politics/russia-ukraine-china.html There does seem like a lot of reading between the lines and applying what people think happened in 2008 to what has been happening in 2022.
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Mar 4, 2022 14:56
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the popes toes posted:This is Mr. Putin's position by the way, and his justification. As the saying goes... he's not wrong, he's just an rear end in a top hat
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Mar 4, 2022 14:56
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Threadkiller Dog posted:He needs his troops at home. Can't afford to have them eaten by ukranian bog witches. where are you getting info on the belarus' situation. i just see news on the war, sanctions, and a twitter thread from an exile in poland mad people think belarussians are all putin toadies instead of an oppressed people/
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Mar 4, 2022 14:57
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Antigravitas posted:Any such mission would have to include taking out AA sites in Russian territory. Neither of those statements are true.
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Mar 4, 2022 14:57
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the popes toes posted:This is Mr. Putin's position by the way, and his justification. Proxy war is rather a lazy way to typify this conflict. I think its the exact opposite. If Putin does view this as a proxy war, it's a valid concern. Liberal theory is that there are always a spectrum of viewpoints and a system is needed to arbitrate this. Nonviolence is achieved by discussion and the night-watchman state moderates. (Karl Popper's paradox of tolerance aside) The whole point is that if you blanket reject Putin's view because 'he's crazy', there's no way to get any peaceful resolution. Putin inherited this big stack of messy Russian history and is propped up in part because of the traumas of the 90s. An authoritarian simulacrum of democracy is enough for the majority of the Russian public to create a stable life. As we see in Iran, you can blame sanctions as a reaffirmation that the 'enemy' is out to get you and people will buy that. If you remove Putin and keep the underlying situation or further destabilize it, you'll just get a Putin clone. The way out is to lessen the fear through building back up trust and support (ie Marshall Plan + common goals).
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Mar 4, 2022 14:58
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Some heartening signs in Moscow. People are keeping it quiet for now but maybe the tide there can turn  https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1499743307521564677?t=cWBsLpaTQZBywjUG4N1vTQ&s=19
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Mar 4, 2022 14:58
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CuddleCryptid posted:Having your borders protected by NATO is just being in NATO without paying dues. Under normal circumstances I would concur completely. In this contexts though it’s more about containment and saying that NATO will not tolerate a wider war in Europe, because a wider was in Europe in any country is an existential threat to NATO.
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Mar 4, 2022 15:03
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It had previously been reported that Russia had ceased forced mobilization in Donbas, but they are starting again. And expanding to Crimea  https://twitter.com/DQTK2009/status/1499742186065338370?t=YrlEtcvxjb2mBdD9VPmIlw&s=19 quote:Algorithm of actions for Crimeans to avoid being drafted into the Russian army for the war with Ukraine
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Mar 4, 2022 15:07
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Jarmak posted:Neither of those statements are true. AA systems use missiles with ranges measured in 100s of kilometers. A-no-fly-zone would require NATO aircraft to expose themselves to systems in Russian territory, something they would not do without eliminating that threat. A no fly zone would require destroying Russian AA parked near or on the border or in Ukraine itself, which is a very serious provocation.
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Mar 4, 2022 15:14
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Ciprian Maricon posted:AA systems use missiles with ranges measured in 100s of kilometers. A-no-fly-zone would require NATO aircraft to expose themselves to systems in Russian territory, something they would not do without eliminating that threat. A no fly zone would require destroying Russian AA parked near or on the border or in Ukraine itself, which is a very serious provocation. Worth noting most of the Russian AAs have coverage well into Poland.
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Mar 4, 2022 15:16
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a podcast for cats posted:Not to be outdone by tractors pulling away tanks, APCs and self propelled AA vehicles, these lads have attached something (an artillery piece?) to their Dnepr motorcyle: Looks like a 2S12 Sani 120mm heavy mortar.
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Mar 4, 2022 15:21
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Ciprian Maricon posted:AA systems use missiles with ranges measured in 100s of kilometers. A-no-fly-zone would require NATO aircraft to expose themselves to systems in Russian territory, something they would not do without eliminating that threat. A no fly zone would require destroying Russian AA parked near or on the border or in Ukraine itself, which is a very serious provocation. Claimed maximum operational range on paper is not the same thing as actually being able to engage targets in Poland. Do you really think the Russians, unable to keep the aging Ukrainian fighter fleet from operating over Ukraine, are going to be able to engage 5G fighters on the other side of Ukraine? Latest estimates I've seen are the S400 can only pick up F35s within 20mi, and IIRC the F22 is stealthier. In addition to that Poland is host to a substantial Patriot net that could engage over the border. Also, all of this is ignoring the fact I said in this scenario NATO would try to carve out a small enough zone in the west that Russia wouldn't think it was worth contesting.
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Mar 4, 2022 15:23
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Don't know how credible this is, but Kubela has also talked about reported rapes recently https://twitter.com/motytchak/status/1499713177633837057?t=VOSfvtLmbHK_VKM9NkfP_g&s=19 https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1499713113586868226?t=JIu4EXFXbHxhwv12yCGDZg&s=19 Occupation is gonna be hell for Ukrainians
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Mar 4, 2022 15:24
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Apparently Russia is officially trying to push the line that Zelensky has fled. I don't think it will work. If there was any doubt he was a Russian asset: https://twitter.com/GeorgePapa19/status/1499742646994186248?t=LxgK-kzwzRXduvmBbqccHw&s=19 The Italian media has been weirdly pushing the Russian line this whole time. Anyone have any insight into that? https://twitter.com/ngumenyuk/status/1499748440108064768?t=LvbXWbR0JwIavwKwv8GkDw&s=19
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Mar 4, 2022 15:25
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Am I dumb and naive for finding it strange for Ukranian officials to ask for no-fly zones they know can't be granted and for insisting the west acted too late and are abandoning them while receiving supplies from them? I feel like it only fuels the anti-Nato/pro-Putin right/left messaging.
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Mar 4, 2022 15:25
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