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raminasi
Jan 25, 2005

a last drink with no ice

GD_American posted:

Is there a good observations/lessons learned/analysis blog out there that's keeping up with things?

https://www.understandingwar.org/ has been linked around the forums, but I have no idea if their analysis is any good. This seems like a really hard thing to get a ground truth for while the invasion is actively ongoing.

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Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Saw this photo dump floating around on the combat footage subreddit:



In it was this picture:



I've been trying to figure out what that shrink-wrapped car to the left is. It looks like an expensive and fast coupe, at first I thought it was a Mercedes SLS AMG, with that sloping rear, big wheel and the way the rear view mirror is positioned. But the rocker panel on those look a bit different, I think, unless it's some aftermarket thing :thunk:

edit: for reference

Nuclear Tourist fucked around with this message at 06:55 on Mar 4, 2022

Wasabi the J
Jan 23, 2008

MOM WAS RIGHT
https://www.dailyveracity.com/2022/...ifestyle-brand/

Let's look at the sources that are pushing this?



NGL could be another intentional misdirect; but I personally won't weep over any collateral fasciscide.

victorious
Jul 2, 2007

As a youth I prayed, "Give me chastity and continence, but not yet."

Nuclear Tourist posted:



I've been trying to figure out what that shrink-wrapped car is to the left is. It looks like an expensive and fast coupe, at first I thought it was a Mercedes SLS AMG, with that sloping rear, big wheel and the way the rear view mirror is positioned. But the rocker panel on those look a bit different, I think, unless it's some aftermarket thing :thunk:

edit: for reference



The flaring on the wheel arch looks different too. Post it in AI, someone will probably ID it in about 5 seconds.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
What are those flags they are holding up?

Icon Of Sin
Dec 26, 2008



Dick Ripple posted:

What are those flags they are holding up?

The one on the left is a Blackbeard flag*, slightly modified. Yes, that Blackbeard. Scourge of the Royal Navy, wove cannon fuse through his beard, cutlass-wielding Blackbeard. Murdered in 1718 off of Ocracoke Island by a British Royal Navy LT.

*this is the pop culture idea of his flag going back a century. No known records exist, aside from someone remembering a story passed down through the family that went something like “a horned skeleton giving cheers, while stabbing a bleeding heart”.

No known chud context that I’m aware of, at least for the original. They’re common on the NC coast, where Blackbeard was known to have lived/operated.

e: the one in that pic had the drink held up in cheers replaced with an AK. Original is this:

Icon Of Sin fucked around with this message at 07:15 on Mar 4, 2022

Wasabi the J
Jan 23, 2008

MOM WAS RIGHT

Dick Ripple posted:

What are those flags they are holding up?

Forward Observations Group

A military style "lifestyle brand" founded by former SF dudes and who's members do keep getting photoed with Nazis.

What's more interesting is the Canoe Club flag.

https://canoeclubusa.com/

You can buy ammunition at this url.

Also I laughed at the implications of this eBay listing tags

FORWARD OBSERVATIONS GROUP CANOE CLUB FLAG FOG DEVGRU GBRS ONE7SIX SUPDEF WRMFZY

https://www.ebay.com/itm/165262543125





REALLY reminds me of Lake City Quiet Pills.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF0dCNxfYHk

Wasabi the J fucked around with this message at 07:14 on Mar 4, 2022

aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


Dick Ripple posted:

What are those flags they are holding up?

Right one is maybe a reference to canoeing, a signature ritual corpse mutilation practiced by US SOF?

aphid_licker fucked around with this message at 07:12 on Mar 4, 2022

Strayer
May 19, 2006

There's a SEAL team that uses that flag or a variation thereof as a unit patch.

FWIW, forward observations was working on a documentary thing on the separatist regions in Ukraine. Looking at their channel, they just uploaded some new stuff. https://youtu.be/m9YJexrBNMo

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

aphid_licker posted:

Right one is maybe a reference to canoeing, a signature ritual corpse mutilation practiced by US SOF?

That’s 100% what it is.

It looks like Forward Observations Group either got banned or deleted their IG account. I wonder what touched that off, but I’ve noticed there seem to be a number of “SOF veteran owned businesses” that seem to get in trouble for hanging out with Nazis.

Wasabi the J
Jan 23, 2008

MOM WAS RIGHT
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

It's worth reading about the fascists shooting at the Russians since I trust them about the same.

Ataxerxes
Dec 2, 2011

What is a soldier but a miserable pile of eaten cats and strange language?
A Finn here and the whole thing is rather terrifying. Russia starting an invasion excused with sone A grade bullshit is uncomfortably familiar. I have nothing but sympathy for Ukraine and the poo poo they are going through, all I can say that this has caused an upsurge in enrollment to voluntary Finnish Defense Force courses and reservist organisations. I am a reservist myself and all this strikes rather too close to home.

IPCRESS
May 27, 2012

Eeeehhhhh... Hijack alert, but:

If Russia hadn't stuck it's dick in a wasp's nest, Turkey would have been the big security story in a few months. Their economy is in the pan and the lira in a bit of a death spiral. These are all self-inflicted wounds that aren't relevant but suffice to say "gently caress Erdogan".

Turkey's energy consumption sits at about 1.7PJ NG, 1.7PJ Coal, 1.8PJ oil. They import all three and they're experiencing hyperinflation and attendant massive currency devaluation; that's not good news if you want to keep the lights on. It's so bad they've outright seized some private foreign currency reserves.

Parts and support for what will undoubtedly turn out to be a monkey model S400 is going to be background noise next to the energy question. That they closed the bosphorous to Russian warships was really most of what could reasonably be expected of them, noting their other (again, self-inflicted) woes.

Who knows, maybe Iran can be rehabilitated as an international citizen?

e: On Finland 2, don't forget that at the end of the continuation war, the SU did wind up with the insanely defensible terrain they'd been fighting over. If there's winter war 2, the Finns don't have that advantage. The SU knew this at the time. Yeltsin I think made some overtures towards the returned of the territory, but it never happened.

Few folks seem to be saying that NATO would play differently if Finland or Sweden got invaded. I'm not sure that's right. Since I'm sure that key decision makers are making these decisions based on what some guy on a dead gay comedy forum says, join before you've got a territorial integrity issue.

IPCRESS fucked around with this message at 08:00 on Mar 4, 2022

citybeatnik
Mar 1, 2013

You Are All
WEIRDOS




Wasabi the J posted:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

It's worth reading about the fascists shooting at the Russians since I trust them about the same.

I'm not sure anyone posting in this thread is unaware of these jackoffs.

CainFortea
Oct 15, 2004


Need an automated page sniper that just posts "Yes we know about Azov Battalion thank you"

Wasabi the J
Jan 23, 2008

MOM WAS RIGHT
I just think about Putin being a spy his whole life, he knows how to pit ideological enemies against each other for his own benefit, surely?

Ataxerxes
Dec 2, 2011

What is a soldier but a miserable pile of eaten cats and strange language?

IPCRESS posted:

: On Finland 2, don't forget that at the end of the continuation war, the SU did wind up with the insanely defensible terrain they'd been fighting over. If there's winter war 2, the Finns don't have that advantage. The SU knew this at the time. Yeltsin I think made some overtures towards the returned of the territory, but it never happened.

Yeah, the Karelian Ishtmus. The issue popped up a few times during the Cold War but nothing concrete got done. There is a joke in Finnish, "Let's take back Karelia!(bottle by bottle)" since Karelia is also a beer brand.

Nuclear Tourist
Apr 7, 2005

Ataxerxes posted:

Yeah, the Karelian Ishtmus. The issue popped up a few times during the Cold War but nothing concrete got done. There is a joke in Finnish, "Let's take back Karelia!(bottle by bottle)" since Karelia is also a beer brand.

I always got a case of Karjala in the tax free shop when I went on Viking Line cruises, half a lifetime ago. Good stuff.

KozmoNaut
Apr 23, 2008

Happiness is a warm
Turbo Plasma Rifle


Nuclear Tourist posted:

In it was this picture:



I've been trying to figure out what that shrink-wrapped car to the left is. It looks like an expensive and fast coupe, at first I thought it was a Mercedes SLS AMG, with that sloping rear, big wheel and the way the rear view mirror is positioned. But the rocker panel on those look a bit different, I think, unless it's some aftermarket thing :thunk:

Looks like a Nissan GT-R or 370Z or something to me.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

IPCRESS posted:

Few folks seem to be saying that NATO would play differently if Finland or Sweden got invaded. I'm not sure that's right. Since I'm sure that key decision makers are making these decisions based on what some guy on a dead gay comedy forum says, join before you've got a territorial integrity issue.

They're also both EU countries whose economies are highly integrated with the rest of the continent and, frankly, have a level of shared identity with Northern and Western Europe that Ukraine unfortunately lacks.

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

It sounds like Russia is having to activate additional troops that weren't a part of the original invasion force. Didn't the original grouping already represent something like 60% of their total active duty forces?

Couple of other interesting notes:

  • They confirm that they're using making use of captured equipment
  • The Ukrainian Navy is apparently still afloat
  • It looks like the Northwestern battle group's advance has been slightly reversed, having been pushed back from Gostomel


UA MoD posted:

🇺🇦 Operational information as of 06.00 04.03.2022 regarding #Russian_invasion / 🇬🇧 Operational information on 06.00, 04.03.2022 regarding the #russian_invasion (ENG below)
Video will be later

The ninth era of the heroic opposition of the Ukrainian people to the Russian military invasion has begun.

As of 06:20, the fire in the training building of Zaporizhzhya NPP in Energodar was extinguished. There are no victims.

The main efforts of the occupiers are focused on the encirclement of Kyiv and the weakening of resistance in the blocked settlements. In the course of this task, the groups of the RF Armed Forces exhausted most of the operational reserves and began preparations for the transfer of additional forces and resources from the Southern and Eastern military districts. The second echelons and most of the operational reserves of the occupying groups were put into operation.

In the Volyn direction, the enemy with the help of two BTGs moved to defensive operations in the areas of Poliske and Kukhari. It is possible that the occupier will carry out armed provocations at the border in order to involve the armed forces of Belarus in the war against Ukraine.

In the Polissya direction, a group of occupiers consisting of military units of the Eastern Military District with forces of up to fifteen BTGs is conducting an offensive operation in the Kozarovychi, Vyshhorod, Fastiv, Obukhiv lanes, concentrating efforts in the direction of Byshiv and Ukrainka. In the struggle abroad in the area of ​​the settlements of Poliske, Kukhari, Borodyanka, Byshiv, Gorenichi, Demidov, the enemy partially lost its offensive potential.

The main enemy forces were blocked and stopped in the Makarov area. The occupiers withdrew from Bucha and Gostomel airfield.

In the northern direction, a group of troops from the Central Military District with forces of up to fourteen BTGs, as well as the 14th Army District of the Northern Fleet is conducting an offensive operation in the Oster, Zazimya strip; Berezan, Vyshenky, focusing on Kyiv. At the same time, the enemy regrouped in order to continue the offensive in the direction of Brovary.

In the Slobozhansky direction, a group of troops from the Western Military District is conducting an offensive operation with forces of up to sixteen BTGs, concentrating efforts on the direction of Novomoskovsk. Blocks Kharkiv from the north. Captured Balakleya. The enemy did not succeed in the Okhtyrka area and concentrated its main forces in the Gadyach and Zinkiv districts.

In the Donetsk direction of the enemy grouping forces of the 1st and 2nd Army Corps reinforced by seven BTGr from the 8th Army continues the offensive to develop tactical success in the Novoaidar, Volnovakha and Mariupol areas, went to the village of Novooleksandrivka. Having a significant advantage in technique, the enemy surrounded Mariupol.
In the Luhansk direction conducts fighting in the direction of n.p. Starobilsk.

In the Tavriya direction, the enemy, with forces of up to fifteen BTGs, concentrated its efforts in the direction of Mykolayiv - Voznesensk. After regrouping and introducing part of the operational reserves in the BTGr continues the offensive in the direction of Zaporozhye, part of the forces - in Mariupol. The introduction into operation of airborne assault units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the direction of Nikolaev is noted.

The occupiers were stopped in the Nikolaev direction, but had partial success in the direction of Voznesensk.

The movement of a large number of motor vehicles from the temporarily occupied territory of the Crimea in which occupiers carry out transportation of criminals from places of execution of punishments for the organization of riots in the Nikolaev area is noted.

In the Black Sea, a naval group of Russian occupiers was withdrawn from naval bases with the task of striking the surface forces of a group of diverse forces of the Ukrainian Navy.

At the same time, the enemy continues to prepare for the landing of marines in the Gulf, Black Sea. The groups are covered by a detachment of fire support ships and a missile boat strike group.

To suppress the anti-aircraft defense system of Ukraine on the Black Sea coast, the involvement of Su-24M bombers was noted and the discharge of RBC-500 cluster bombs was recorded. The cover was provided by Su-30CM fighters.

In all directions, the enemy has losses, demotivated occupiers surrender and throw equipment. These trophies help to beat the Russian invaders.

The struggle continues! Victory will be ours! Glory to Ukraine!

#stoprussia

psydude fucked around with this message at 10:26 on Mar 4, 2022

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Triple posting because this made me chuckle:

https://twitter.com/BBCTech/status/1499693576342622209

I guess this is one of the use cases the Naval Research Laboratory was thinking of when they created Tor.

Butter Activities
May 4, 2018

Flesnolk posted:

Would you mind elaborating on this? What makes them so good?

Extremely well educated population and a military culture that seems to actually want to let soldiers use personal initiative, and train and treat them like professionals rather than drones. And there's basically near zero corruption in Scandinavia while even the US military is rife with it, much less most militaries on earth.

E: https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2017/9/20/trigger-happy-autonomous-and-disobedient-nordbat-2-and-mission-command-in-bosnia

Dunno if this is accurate but I wouldn't be surprised.

Pine Cone Jones posted:

I know why, but loving please can we at least do some kind of kinetic action to support Ukraine. I hate sitting here and just watching.

Oh yeah lets just escalate this further into a shooting war rather than give aid thats working just fine for no real gain because you feel bad. We're (assuming you're American) really the best country to take the moral high ground on "don't invade sovereign nations and bomb civilians with no reason." You know they're taking foreign volunteers if it's so hard to directly sit it out and so eager?

aphid_licker posted:

Right one is maybe a reference to canoeing, a signature ritual corpse mutilation practiced by US SOF?

It's been a widespread SEAL "meme" in the regular teams since like 2018 at the very least? I heard about it from a friend who was in SWCC around then. I'd bet my life that's why Bin Laden's body was buried at sea so I'm sure it goes back much much further.

Butter Activities fucked around with this message at 12:36 on Mar 4, 2022

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

It's been a widespread SEAL "meme" in the regular teams since like 2018 at the very least? I heard about it from a friend who was in SWCC around then. I'd bet my life that's why Bin Laden's body was buried at sea so I'm sure it goes back much much further.

I remember one of the Special Forces officers I was working with lamenting that the SEALs attached to them were "essentially sociopaths, and not in a fun way."

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

I'm more curious what they're eating. Are those sardines?

psydude posted:

Triple posting because this made me chuckle:

https://twitter.com/BBCTech/status/1499693576342622209

I guess this is one of the use cases the Naval Research Laboratory was thinking of when they created Tor.

"yeah gimme those Jimmy Saville clips"

psydude
Apr 1, 2008

Update from the UA Minister of Defense. (11:21 CET).

According to below, Ukraine's casualty estimates are a combination of KIA and WIA.

quote:

Minister of Defence of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov:
Fellow Ukrainians!
196 hours of defence.
We have been countering Russian occupiers for two weeks.
Right now, the situation is changing. The changes need focus and particular concentration.
Our defenders have stopped the enemy on the majority directions. The Armed Forces conducted successful counterattack on several directions.
The situation remains complex on the South, where the enemy had been shelling Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant recently. Nevertheless the morale of people on the Cossack land is such a high, that the occupiers are doomed to the failure.
Kharkiv is staying as an infrangible fortress. Russian shellings of the city is a pain of the whole Ukraine, but as of now the whole Europe knows that Kharkiv is not only intelectual and industrial center, but also the proud city of brave citizens.
Sumy and Chernihiv are in combat. They are protecting Kyiv from the siege. The enemy has no chances, until command and control over the country and the Armed Forces is unimpaired.
On the East and South, everywhere, the Ukrainian people are countering the enemy and staying united for victory.
Following the results of 8 days of the warfare, losses of Russian army are more than 10 thousands of people killed and wounded in action. Defeating of minimum one Russian general was confirmed. Russian society starts to experience and realize these losses.
We are counting destroyed Russian vehicles and equipment not by units, but by battalions and brigades.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine received more trophey tanks and armored vehicles, than it had been supplied from Ukrainian military-industrial complex in the last 8 years.
Our defenders seized several vehicles with MLRS ammunition, which is used by the enemy to shell our peaceful cities. All this projectiles will "return" to the enemy.

We are also suffering casualties. The war is a huge grief. Almost every hour we are receiving imformation, that Russian occupiers are killing peaceful citizens again and again. The blood is up in ire, when our children are dieing...
There are losses among our wariors. They are fighting like cyborgs, but the hearts in their breasts are human. Each of them will be honored as a hero.
People are the most valuable for us. That is the main difference between Ukraine and Russia. I really hope that Russian side will fulfill its' obligations to create humanitarian corridors.
A plenty of complex decisions were taken these days. We were forced to maneuver to save the Armed Forces. Nevertheless we will take all our land back.
The buildings, destroyed after the Russian shellings are our pain, but we will rebuild everything.
The commander of the flagship of the Ukrainian Navy complied with the order to sink the ship, so that the frigate "Hetman Sagaidachny", which was under repair, did not fall into the enemy hands. I can not imagine more difficult decision for the brave warior and the whole crew, but we will build new fleet - the modern and powerful one.
The main thing as of now is to withstand.
I clearly understand that everybody is tired, many people are exhausted and shocked with the losses. Extrimely difficult period is ahead. We will need a lot of power and stamina.
I want to say to all. Ukrainians, you are incredible!
The enemy is confused and scared. We have not won it yet, but this time is irreversibly nearing.
The Kremlin rats are already trembling. Part of them are actively searching for the escape routs.
The whole Ukraine is successfully adjusting to the life in defence. Assistance is beeing provided in industrial scales, this activity had already been regulated.
We will protect our country and handle it to the future generations as a blooming, prosperous and better State.
Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the Heroes of Ukraine!

psydude fucked around with this message at 13:13 on Mar 4, 2022

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
this was in Russia :stare:
https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1499714102616330244

Chilichimp
Oct 24, 2006

TIE Adv xWampa

It wamp, and it stomp

Grimey Drawer

psydude posted:

Update from the UA Minister of Defense. (11:21 CET).

According to below, Ukraine's casualty estimates are a combination of KIA and WIA.

Slava Ukraini, Heroiam Slava

psydude
Apr 1, 2008


Looks like an SRBM hitting an ammo cache?

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

bone shaking.
soul baking.
Saw something in one of the other threads that was russian reports that it was an explosion at an ammo facility or something like that but they explicitly said it was an accident and not a missile.

Also, this is news (from a couple hours ago)

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171

bees everywhere
Nov 19, 2002

Imo NATO shouldn't intervene but there's nothing to stop them from doing their own troop exercises on Russia's border right now. Make Putin divert resources to prepare for a US invasion that never comes.

bees everywhere fucked around with this message at 14:11 on Mar 4, 2022

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Mr. Nice! posted:

Saw something in one of the other threads that was russian reports that it was an explosion at an ammo facility or something like that but they explicitly said it was an accident and not a missile.

Also, this is news (from a couple hours ago)

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1499679745012871171



well as long as they are covering up an embarassment and not trying to start false flag poo poo

Butter Activities
May 4, 2018


Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
https://twitter.com/dohuyaumnyi/status/1499725455288582149?s=21

what is this thing

IPCRESS
May 27, 2012

Sani towed mortar.

Also, a technical.

Hajotus Maximus
Feb 19, 2011

SMEGMA_MAIL posted:

Extremely well educated population and a military culture that seems to actually want to let soldiers use personal initiative, and train and treat them like professionals rather than drones. And there's basically near zero corruption in Scandinavia while even the US military is rife with it, much less most militaries on earth.

E: https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2017/9/20/trigger-happy-autonomous-and-disobedient-nordbat-2-and-mission-command-in-bosnia

Dunno if this is accurate but I wouldn't be surprised.



This is accurate, at least for FDF. Especially this part hit home:
"were taught that the only truly mortal sin was to hesitate. To seize the initiative and act was the primary imperative."
Taking the initiative was loving hammered in, at least for the platoon leaders.

Spoggerific
May 28, 2009

IPCRESS posted:

Sani towed mortar.

Also, a technical.

Doctrine purist, structure neutral.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1499702341146234880?s=20&t=T0zwEqgVSHzkSzOreMBLNg

Spoggerific posted:

Doctrine purist, structure neutral.

not toyota, certainly not a hilux. Not even a pickup truck or flatbed :thunk:

ill give them a pass on minimum wheel requirement

stealie72
Jan 10, 2007
Boy this feels familiar.

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CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

bees everywhere posted:

Imo NATO shouldn't intervene but there's nothing to stop them from doing their own troop exercises on Russia's border right now. Make Putin divert resources to prepare for a US invasion that never comes.

I'd worry that Putin is not in a good mental state to be able to see it as an exercise. He seems to have gone totally overboard into his own bullshit.

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