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Bellingcat says that Russia only has enough resources to wage the war until this coming Sunday... https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1499807262084325379?s=20&t=GDdKLs_u4JaA3p5E4WZ9_Q
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Mar 4, 2022 22:27
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Asked my Russian friend if he thinks they will somehow block Telegram, our remaining communication link. "It is very difficult. But they have already learned a lot. Today I had to change bridges to Tor three times, they respond very quickly. We will use Telegram via VPN. Durov himself wants to turn off all channels related to the war, and that is exactly what they need."
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Mar 4, 2022 22:27
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:christ, that's sobering. hopefully joe will repeat the afghanistan withdrawal by not caring about poll numbers when it comes to foreign policy Yeah I think Biden's going to have to do more to explain the implications. But it also sounds like the oil ban is gaining momentum. I think Congress may be the ones to do the dirty work there, Joe's too afraid of raising gas prices.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:27
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ronya posted:https://twitter.com/jmkorhonen/status/1498989114691133443 It's a bit apples and oranges though. Finland's population in 1939-40 was under 4 million men compared to nearly 200 million in the USSR. Finland literally ran out of people and bullets. AND Stalin was willing to sign limited peace deals, he was willing to end the war without a full invasion or installing a puppet regime.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:27
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FizFashizzle posted:Pretty amazing watching decades of cold war propaganda kick right back in. Better dead than red
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Mar 4, 2022 22:28
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https://twitter.com/risj_oxford/status/1499007132934582274 https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1499807262084325379?s=20&t=2agERxG7HU4YpbIgYw87DQ Seems bellingcat thinks the fielded Russian army is hosed and poo poo will only get worse the sanctions start pinching hard.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:28
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:christ, that's sobering. hopefully joe will repeat the afghanistan withdrawal by not caring about poll numbers when it comes to foreign policy It's weird to have a war that so many Americans actually want to get involved with. I guess so many boomers and Gen Xers are jonesing to finally get a taste of a hot war with Russia after they got blue-balled in the Cold War.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:29
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HappyHippo posted:https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1499844253786288133 Yeah I think this shows how ignorant the average American is of NFZs. Which they really shouldn't be, since it wasn't that long ago that we did it in Libya.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:29
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HappyHippo posted:https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1499844253786288133 people think that the way an nfz works is we say no one can fly there and then on one flies there
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Mar 4, 2022 22:30
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A New Dad posted:people think that the way an nfz works is we say no one can fly there and then on one flies there Just declare it an LGBT-only fly zone. VDV will immediately retreat back to Russia.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:31
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A New Dad posted:people think that the way an nfz works is we say no one can fly there and then on one flies there Joe Biden will slur the word "Ukrainian" again when interviewed and everyone will want the fighters and missiles to fly. Rad Russian posted:Just declare it an LGBT-only fly zone. VDV will immediately retreat back to Russia. Put a sign on the ground saying "Landing in this area makes you gay."
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Mar 4, 2022 22:32
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If Ukraine crushes it next week Putin will literally have gained a land bridge to Crimea and water access. Ten thousand dead or wounded and a completely demoralized military for that "win" seems insane.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:32
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/risj_oxford/status/1499007132934582274 https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1499807262084325379?s=20&t=2agERxG7HU4YpbIgYw87DQ Seems bellingcat thinks the fielded Russian army is hosed and poo poo will only get worse the sanctions start pinching hard. The army or the country because god drat.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:33
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Charliegrs posted:Yeah I think this shows how ignorant the average American is of NFZs. Which they really shouldn't be, since it wasn't that long ago that we did it in Libya. It's because we've never really enforced one on a county that could reasonably punch back and punch back at the homeland if they wanted to. I expect there is little understanding of the risk.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:34
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:If Ukraine crushes it next week Putin will literally have gained a land bridge to Crimea and water access. The "win" is loving up Ukraine enough where it does not qualify to join EU or NATO for another 30 years. At least right now there are very strict economic, legal, and corruption metrics they use. Russia will also keep Donbas as "disputed territory" to make sure NATO can't happen.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:34
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1499859581949956107?s=20&t=oOvkICODxE7doj0mfo-Ehg
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Mar 4, 2022 22:34
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 https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-teams-harrowing-account-of-their-violent-ambush-in-ukraine-this-week-12557585Sky News reporters drive into Bucha near the frontlines NW of Kyiv. Get ambushed in their car, chaotic scenes on the video. Camera operator takes 2 bullets but is unscathed due to body armor. Get out of car into safety.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:35
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Telsa Cola posted:The army or the country because god drat. Probably Army. Again, Russia really did think that the army would be able to resupply from Ukrainian supplies and get food locally. That hasn't worked out. And the resupply forces are mucked up on the road. When the US Army did offensives like this in Iraq, they were basically followed by an army of logistics to keep tanks, apcs, and trucks fueled and food available. The Russian equivalent is bogged down on the road.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:35
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FizFashizzle posted:Pretty amazing watching decades of cold war propaganda kick right back in. I disagree. It's precisely the lack of the cold war that is the problem. Since the USSR fell, the one military conflict the US has been kinda nervous about has been with China over Taiwan. So there's been thirty years of no-fly zones (since Iraq I) where it doesn't lead to a war because it's such an unequal battle that the US can just say "nobody gets to fly here" and that's that. People never really stop to think what it means. You asked people in 1980 if the US should impose a no-fly zone as a result of a USSR repeat of crushing the Prague Spring and they'd have looked at you like you had three heads, because people would understand what that meant as a result of the cold war.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:35
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Franks Happy Place posted:If you have that stupid VDV song stuck in your head, I shall repost a far superior earworm to cleanse it: EDIT: Just realized there's some probably -level poo poo in the video so... yeah. If you want to see it just google Bayraktar and it'll probably show up.
Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 22:40 on Mar 4, 2022 |
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Mar 4, 2022 22:35
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You have to wonder if the flat-out rejection of the no fly zone (which should absolutely be rejected anyway, unfortunately for Ukraine), combined with the intel about Russia only having a few more days worth of resources before the campaign collapses, is a case of saying to Ukraine 'just hang on a little while longer and this may well just come to a halt anyway'.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:38
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No Fly Zone is a no go, but do agree with the polls: We need to bite the bullet and cut off Russian gas and oil.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:40
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Kinda crazy that the Soviets took 10 years to lose 15k people in Afghanistan and now Russia, a country with half the population, is going through 15k in just 15 days. The Afghanistan was one of the major reasons for the Soviet collapse.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:40
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Answers Me posted:You have to wonder if the flat-out rejection of the no fly zone (which should absolutely be rejected anyway, unfortunately for Ukraine), combined with the intel about Russia only having a few more days worth of resources before the campaign collapses, is a case of saying to Ukraine 'just hang on a little while longer and this may well just come to a halt anyway'. They have no reason for passing info through the media, the US government is in direct connection with Zelenskyy through a secure satellite phone.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:41
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evilweasel posted:You asked people in 1980 if the US should impose a no-fly zone as a result of a USSR repeat of crushing the Prague Spring and they'd have looked at you like you had three heads, because people would understand what that meant as a result of the cold war. Do we have polling numbers on how people in the US felt about getting involved in the Prague Spring or in Hungary?
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Mar 4, 2022 22:42
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HappyHippo posted:https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1499835261152284676 I know I'm a few pages late on this but do we know if this prevents Russian trolls/bots from continuing to post or does it only prevent average citizens from getting on the sites?
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Mar 4, 2022 22:43
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Given what we've experienced with our institutions and leaders completely failing during COVID, I'm also not sure why people have confidence in large, corrupt institutions being able to adapt. It's usually people who are themselves part of some large institution, either fully or partially on the way towards corruption and stagnation, that make these complains. Because in their world if they want and need to believe that all organizational rot can be fixed by 'adapting', 'getting smart' or 'learning the lesson'. They won't accept that organizational rot can't always be fixed, and when it can it isn't quick or easy. Another explanation is that respect for the enemy is a good thing to keep even when your enemy is making it difficult. We can see what it get Putin and cronies to severely underestimate Zelensky and the Ukrainian ability/will to defend. After more than half a century of cold war, I also think it's to consider they could have fallen this far. The Danish military analysts I've seen speak out in media seem to have weirdly high opinion of Russian capabilities and seeming almost unwilling to understand that Ukraine is actually able to fight back and hurt them. I guess it's the same in many other places. So a combination of projected delusion and echoes of the past is my guess. For some individuals, there may also be the kind of fetishization you mention, but I don't think it applies across the board. PederP fucked around with this message at 22:48 on Mar 4, 2022 |
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Mar 4, 2022 22:43
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GABA ghoul posted:Kinda crazy that the Soviets took 10 years to lose 15k people in Afghanistan and now Russia, a country with half the population, is going through 15k in just 15 days. The Afghanistan was one of the major reasons for the Soviet collapse. I think its because as corrupt as the Soviets were, the military was supposedly well trained and well supplied, and Soviet logistics still had its ducks in a row. Something has fallen apart between now and then. Synesthesian Fetish posted:I know I'm a few pages late on this but do we know if this prevents Russian trolls/bots from continuing to post or does it only prevent average citizens from getting on the sites? A couple of my friends who do analytics on bots noticed a significant drop when they started blocking twitter.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:43
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If the USA is monitoring it closely enough to know Putin is going to hit a brick wall very soon then maybe I disagree with the no fly zone. But personally I have extended family in Ukraine and so my initial hunch and reaction is “Eh go for it I lust for a nuclear heat death.”
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Mar 4, 2022 22:44
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I think a lot of people just are not able to fathom what a Nuclear weapon could really so. There is a lot of "I bet their nukes don't even work" poo poo which fails to grasp just how incredible horrible a war where Russia and the US used 1% of their arsenals would be. Nukes are something that have been tamed by time and media so the mental perception tends to land on "big boom" and the true scale of devastation. They have become jokes or penis-waving 'NUKE THE WHALES' and that impacts the risks people take. Like 'Trump asked why we don't nuke (x) " is horrifying but is a case of quiet part loud stupidity, not unique misunderstand
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Mar 4, 2022 22:44
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Synesthesian Fetish posted:I know I'm a few pages late on this but do we know if this prevents Russian trolls/bots from continuing to post or does it only prevent average citizens from getting on the sites? It prevents the general public who are not tech savvy enough to use VPN or can't afford a good one. A professionally run troll or bot farm will just have VPNs or other bypass methods directly from the gov't preinstalled.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:45
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Answers Me posted:You have to wonder if the flat-out rejection of the no fly zone (which should absolutely be rejected anyway, unfortunately for Ukraine), combined with the intel about Russia only having a few more days worth of resources before the campaign collapses, is a case of saying to Ukraine 'just hang on a little while longer and this may well just come to a halt anyway'. It's because a no fly zone would mean attacking Russian AD in Belarus, something that would mean Russia would be probably just nuke all of the NATO airfields that are attack the territory of its ally.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:46
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Young Freud posted:Bellingcat says that Russia only has enough resources to wage the war until this coming Sunday... I haven't been able to find a source for that claim and the video is an hour long. The automatically generated transcript doesn't have a mention of it either. Has anyone found a source for this claim other than this tweet?
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Mar 4, 2022 22:47
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Young Freud posted:Bellingcat says that Russia only has enough resources to wage the war until this coming Sunday... no loving way. they're in trouble but no loving way.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:48
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Edit: was already posted!
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Mar 4, 2022 22:48
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/risj_oxford/status/1499007132934582274 https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1499807262084325379?s=20&t=2agERxG7HU4YpbIgYw87DQ Seems bellingcat thinks the fielded Russian army is hosed and poo poo will only get worse the sanctions start pinching hard. So, what happens when it collapses? They pack up their poo poo and go back home to try again in a decade? I'm not sure what the implications of the Russian army running out of cash, thus leaving the country technically undefended.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:48
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Charlotte Hornets posted:
ah yess the russian sabateurs manning checkpoint in Ukrainian territory. looks more like some journalists learning not to approach fortifications without a white flag
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Mar 4, 2022 22:49
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CommieGIR posted:I think its because as corrupt as the Soviets were, the military was supposedly well trained and well supplied, and Soviet logistics still had its ducks in a row. Something has fallen apart between now and then. The military always had an incentive to hold the Soviet equivalent in high regard, both because it was essential to keep them sharp and because it justified their budget. It probably wasn't this bad in the Soviet era, but there's always stories of mechanics drinking braking fluid and selling off spare parts for dvds.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:49
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evilweasel posted:I disagree. It's precisely the lack of the cold war that is the problem. Since the USSR fell, the one military conflict the US has been kinda nervous about has been with China over Taiwan. So there's been thirty years of no-fly zones (since Iraq I) where it doesn't lead to a war because it's such an unequal battle that the US can just say "nobody gets to fly here" and that's that. People never really stop to think what it means. Thats an interesting way of looking at it, but I meant more along the lines of 75% of the country being united behind something. The only thing you get numbers like that for anymore is weed.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:50
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That Bellingcat prediction reminds me of the JP Morgan prediction of a 35% GDP contraction for Russia. I suspect it's overly optimistic (from a pro-Ukraine standpoint). But I would still think the effects of the sanctions and other moves have taken some kind of toll.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:51
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