READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

one truck gets gasoline one driver gets a Jerry can. When one truck gets blown up the extra driver siphons the gas and puts it in their own truck

Kind of hard to siphon gas from a burning truck.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 06:48

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# ? May 24, 2024 11:14

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Young Freud posted:

Kind of hard to siphon gas from a burning truck.

Daddy Putin needs you to move quickly in this special operation

# ? Mar 7, 2022 06:49

KillHour: Oct 28, 2007

Happy devil page - may Satan keep Ukraine safe for another day.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 06:52

Ratoslov: Feb 15, 2012; Now prepare yourselves! You're the guests of honor at the Greatest Kung Fu Cannibal BBQ Ever!

Yudo posted:

This does not mean that Ukraine will win, though I think Russia loses whatever happens.

Yeah, I think the only real winners in this whole clusterfuck are Raytheon's sales division.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 06:52

Runaktla: Feb 21, 2007; by Hand Knit

KillHour posted:

Happy devil page - may Satan keep Ukraine safe for another day.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 06:53

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

KillHour posted:

Happy devil page - may Satan keep Ukraine safe for another day.

Hail, hail.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 06:54

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

The X-man cometh posted:

Does BrownMoses still post here?

He doesn't have time, and the few times he did the worst sort of SA tankies would run him off calling him a nato shill or state department agent or whatever they call people that month.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 06:54

Kraftwerk: Aug 13, 2011; i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

Ratoslov posted:

Yeah, I think the only real winners in this whole clusterfuck are Raytheon's sales division.

Don�t forget Thales too. They both had their stocks go up like 20% since the invasion.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 06:54

the popes toes: Oct 10, 2004

I thought the number of protesters, esp in St Petersburg, was impressive and unexpected. And in such a relatively short time. Will this trend upward and be crushed brutally or will it cause enough official unease that the "peace talks" become something substantive? I suppose I'm discounting how little Mr. Putin considers the public. And foolishly hopeful.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 06:57

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Media: "In less than a week, the United States and NATO have pushed more than 17,000 antitank weapons, including Javelin missiles, over the borders of Poland and Romania,"

# ? Mar 7, 2022 06:57

dpkg chopra: Jun 9, 2007; Fast Food Fight; Grimey Drawer

It�s a bit concerning, if inevitable, that if this becomes a protracted insurgence campaigns, a bunch of these weapons are probably gonna end up in the black market, which is probably Not Great.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 07:04

Cable Guy: Jul 18, 2005; I don't expect any trouble, but we'll be handing these out later...; Slippery Tilde

Hail the Greater Satan.... not that one that Ronnie talked about so many years ago, but the Greater one....

# ? Mar 7, 2022 07:09

Mystic Mongol: Jan 5, 2007; Your life's been thrown in disarray already--I wouldn't want you to feel pressured.; College Slice

KillHour posted:

Happy devil page - may Satan keep Ukraine safe for another day.

Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition!

# ? Mar 7, 2022 07:15

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

May Satan protect all innocents and guide his animal (the cat) to safety in Ukraine.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 07:29

VorpalBunny: May 1, 2009; Killer Rabbit of Caerbannog

Hail Santa!

Slava Ukraini!

# ? Mar 7, 2022 07:32

Rah!: Feb 21, 2006

Vox Nihili posted:

Hail, hail.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-36_(missile)#R-36M_(SS-18)

# ? Mar 7, 2022 07:34

a podcast for cats: Jun 22, 2005; Dogs reading from an artifact buried in the ruins of our civilization, "We were assholes- " and writing solemnly, "They were assholes."; Soiled Meat

Logic Probed posted:

I'm curious, what are they saying?

There's an English transcript of that interrogation now:

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1500709342437429248

# ? Mar 7, 2022 07:41

punk rebel ecks: Dec 11, 2010; A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

William Bear posted:

I still wonder how many Crimeans would have voted in a free and fair referendum to join Russia.

There was some independent survey done that showed a majority of Crimeans approve Russian rule. However this was done AFTER Russia invaded making it irrelevant for obvious reasons.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 07:41

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Randarkman posted:

Really? As afar as I'm aware, strikes were more or less illegal throughout the history of the Soviet Union.

Kind of. My point was that trade unions were, and still are respected. Authorities are nowhere near as fast and loose with dealing with their walkouts as they are with crushing generic civil protests.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 07:46

AJA: Mar 28, 2015

Hail Satan

gently caress Putin

Hail St. Javelin

Consider Abe Lincoln, and Better Angels everywhere

"I am loath to close. We are not enemies, but friends. We must not be enemies. Though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection. The mystic chords of memory, stretching from every battlefield and patriot grave to every living heart and hearthstone all over this broad land, will yet swell the chorus of the Union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature."

# ? Mar 7, 2022 07:47

Cable Guy: Jul 18, 2005; I don't expect any trouble, but we'll be handing these out later...; Slippery Tilde

Rah! posted:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-36_(missile)#R-36M_(SS-18)

Aw gently caress... THIS is why we can't have nice things....

:argh:

# ? Mar 7, 2022 07:55

TheSpamalope: Dec 30, 2008; by sebmojo; Lipstick Apathy

It bugs me that posters today wait until page 666 to hail Satan. We should be hailing Satan EVERY page

# ? Mar 7, 2022 07:57

Mystic Mongol: Jan 5, 2007; Your life's been thrown in disarray already--I wouldn't want you to feel pressured.; College Slice

TheSpamalope posted:

It bugs me that posters today wait until page 666 to hail Satan. We should be hailing Satan EVERY page

Look, it's a Christmas/Easter thing, OK? We're not particularly devout.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 07:59

Captain Kosmos: Mar 28, 2010; think of it like the "Who's Who" of genitals

Sir John Falstaff posted:

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1500506185195302912

They're working overtime.

Was waiting for this, in WWII Russian partisans killed more Finnish soldiers than there was guarding the areas, but if you consider babies as soldiers... There were also units that destroyed more tanks than Finland had.

Grammarchist posted:

Ah, Giuliani finally found Hunter's Laptop.

*cough*

Also, I wanted to make it extra stupid by adding Vista icons there and now they are showing its Vista computer :kstare:

How a country that lies to its citizens constantly is so bad at propaganda? It's not propaganda, but the UK went through incredible lengths in Operation Mincemeat to make a fake officer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iipsxj3hRpE
These guys just slap stickers on laptop.

Hail Satan
May you continue to protect the citizens of Ukraine, and show light of your glory to the invaders.
Hail Satan

# ? Mar 7, 2022 08:05

Torrannor: Apr 27, 2013; ---FAGNER---
TEAM-MATE

dpkg chopra posted:

It�s a bit concerning, if inevitable, that if this becomes a protracted insurgence campaigns, a bunch of these weapons are probably gonna end up in the black market, which is probably Not Great.

I guess it depends, if these weapons mainly go to the most patriotic Ukrainian resistance fighters, they might be unwilling to sell some of these on the black market. Especially the bigger anti-tank weapons.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 08:10

Morrow: Oct 31, 2010

Captain Kosmos posted:

Was waiting for this, in WWII Russian partisans killed more Finnish soldiers than there was guarding the areas, but if you consider babies as soldiers... There were also units that destroyed more tanks than Finland had.

*cough*

Also, I wanted to make it extra stupid by adding Vista icons there and now they are showing its Vista computer

How a country that lies to its citizens constantly is so bad at propaganda? It's not propaganda, but the UK went through incredible lengths in Operation Mincemeat to make a fake officer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iipsxj3hRpE
These guys just slap stickers on laptop.

The point is that truth doesn't matter. The government lies, all governments lie, belief isn't necessary just compliance.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 08:12

KillHour: Oct 28, 2007

Captain Kosmos posted:

Hail Satan
May you continue to protect the citizens of Ukraine, and show light of your glory to the invaders.
Hail Satan

https://youtu.be/DD2m_iqD7dI

# ? Mar 7, 2022 08:21

Mr. Smile Face Hat: Sep 15, 2003; Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

punk rebel ecks posted:

There was some independent survey done that showed a majority of Crimeans approve Russian rule. However this was done AFTER Russia invaded making it irrelevant for obvious reasons.

It doesn't matter before and after as long as it's an annexation. Additionally, even if the majority of the population of a region in one country would like to secede, that doesn't automatically make it legal. For many reasons, not least among them self-preservation, countries have procedures for such things that generally include the requirement that the rest of the country has to agree.

I'd like to secede my apartment from my country so I don't have to pay taxes. Why can't I? etc. etc.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 08:26

Nessus: Dec 22, 2003; After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!

Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:

It doesn't matter before and after as long as it's an annexation. Additionally, even if the majority of the population of a region in one country would like to secede, that doesn't automatically make it legal. For many reasons, not least among them self-preservation, countries have procedures for such things that generally include the requirement that the rest of the country has to agree.

I'd like to secede my apartment from my country so I don't have to pay taxes. Why can't I? etc. etc.

Depends, is your apartment of strategic interest to Russia?

# ? Mar 7, 2022 08:28

Doctor Malaver: May 23, 2007; Ce qui s'est pass� t'a rendu plus fort

VoltairePunk posted:

Care to share name? Many thanks

That was Robert Baric on Croatian TV.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 08:34

Captain Kosmos: Mar 28, 2010; think of it like the "Who's Who" of genitals

KillHour posted:

https://youtu.be/DD2m_iqD7dI

Morrow posted:

The point is that truth doesn't matter. The government lies, all governments lie, belief isn't necessary just compliance.

Yeah, I know that Russians think government always lies, and you should just be able to read through between the lines. It's just the stuff that we should believe, like every story about Ukrainian saboteurs, or are again just trying to lie to themselves?

# ? Mar 7, 2022 08:36

KozmoNaut: Apr 23, 2008; Happiness is a warm
Turbo Plasma Rifle

Very interesting Vice article that I haven't seen posted here.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxdb5z/redfish-media-russia-propaganda-misinformation

# ? Mar 7, 2022 08:43

punk rebel ecks: Dec 11, 2010; A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:

It doesn't matter before and after as long as it's an annexation. Additionally, even if the majority of the population of a region in one country would like to secede, that doesn't automatically make it legal. For many reasons, not least among them self-preservation, countries have procedures for such things that generally include the requirement that the rest of the country has to agree.

I'd like to secede my apartment from my country so I don't have to pay taxes. Why can't I? etc. etc.

I agree. Cessation is all about context. It's up to judge whether or not Crimea met that criteria. But even if it did, asking people after the fact is pointless for many reasons, such as former residents who would have voted "nay" likely fled the area when Russian forces arrived.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 08:45

Captain Kosmos: Mar 28, 2010; think of it like the "Who's Who" of genitals

First fighting Opels has arrived
:nms:

https://twitter.com/stoa1984/status/1500565212893696012?s=20&t=xbi6Cgb2Tb5PnBZvtqd35g
Wrecked Opel STW, blurred corpses on the ground
:nms:

edit:Forgot the :nms:

tags. Saw a video of shelled civilians where guy was trying to wake up by shaking a really pale woman on the ground, just have to say this poo poo gently caress gently caress gently caress rear end gently caress gently caress gently caress poo poo poo poo poo poo poo poo poo poo poo poo FFUUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCKKK[ FUUCK FUUCCCKK loving gently caress gently caress gently caress

Captain Kosmos fucked around with this message at 09:16 on Mar 7, 2022

# ? Mar 7, 2022 09:04

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Crimea's annexation polling effort post, redux.

William Bear posted:

I still wonder how many Crimeans would have voted in a free and fair referendum to join Russia.

Concerned Citizen posted:

obviously the referendum was illegal and probably rigged, but crimea is mostly ethnically russian and they were the part of the country that voted very heavily to not secede from the soviet union. they had not much historical connection to ukraine and had been added to the ukrainian republic against their will in the first place. there was not exactly protest over the annexation, except from the tatars.

BigRoman posted:

What always struck me as strange was that, at the time, I'm fairly certain well over 50% of the population would've agreed to this. Why they went ahead with sham elections, I will never understand.

Majorian posted:

Yup. For years before the occupation and referendum, polls showed that the vast majority of Crimeans supported Russian annexation. The referendum may have been illegal and rigged, but it was also about as much of a fait accompli as it gets in geopolitics. There's not much of a realistic chance that Crimea returns to Ukraine, which makes that article in the Constitution problematic.

I've posted this at Majorian before already, but hopefully we can have a conversation now instead of just just random out-of-context links at Wikipedia with arguments of the tier of "80% of polls made during military occupation support the military occupation rule".

First, an overview of some of the polling prior to annexation.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

FishBulbia posted:
Polling in general points to a majority being for annexation. No where near the 90%+ for that was present in the referendum though.

https://web.archive.org/web/2014050...1%29%285%29.pdf

I don't dispute that report, but please don't link 100-page PDFs with no further specifiers and expect people to talk to you about it.

For context for everyone else, page 18. A 2011 poll, in Russian

"Optimal status for Crimea?" 41% autonomous part of Russia
"Hypothetical joining Russia referendum?" 65.6% Yes

raminasi posted:
I'm curious!

2008 poll in English (hot on heels of Russia-Georgia war)
https://web.archive.org/web/20140317075919/http://www.razumkov.org.ua/eng/files/category_journal/NSD104_eng_2.pdf

Opinions of Crimeans regarding the desired future for their
region are rather controversial and unsteady, which makes them
vulnerable to internal and external influences. For instance, the
majority of Crimeans would like Crimea to secede from Ukraine and
join Russia (63.8%), and at the same time � to preserve its current
status, but with expanded powers and rights (53.8%). More than a
third (35.1%) would like it to become a Russian national autonomy
as a part of Ukraine; also more than a third (34.5%) � to secede from
Ukraine and become an independent state

2011 poll in Ukrainian, page 27
https://razumkov.org.ua/upload/Prz_Krym_2011_Yakymenko.pdf
Crimean polling for "join Russia" option is shown to drop fro 32.3% in 2009 to 24.4% in 2011.
This poll is run by the same people as the one above with 63.8% in 2008.

2014 poll in English
http://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=236&page=1
This one is noteworthy for polling in Crimea literally a few days before things escalated.
Crimean polling for "join Russia" option is shown to increase from 35.9% in 2013 to 41% in 2014

Obviously, this was domestically loaded question and polls are absolutely not prescriptive, and it's likewise easy to find stuff that will show lower and higher numbers than those (some Russian-organised polls trend higher, some Western-organised polls trend lower). Anecdotally, I don't recall any polls that would show >50% Crimean support for joining Russia between the 2012 parliament elections and the 2014 annexation of Crimea. After the annexation sure, there's dozens of polls with North Korea elections-tier 103.75% support for Russia.

Chaser link:
May 7, 2014 (freshly post-annexation) report from Putin administration's human rights council, in Russian (a cool read in general, if you read Russian or can stomach Google Translate)
http://web.archive.org/web/20140427...teley_kryma.php

My translation of the relevant bit:
According to the opinion of almost all polled experts and citizens:
- Majority of Sevastopol residents voted to join Russia (50-80% turnout), and in Crimea varying sources indicated 50-60% vote in support of joing Russia, with total turnout of 30-50%;
- Inhabitants of Crimea were voting not quite for joining Russia, but for a ceasement of, in their own words, "oppressive corruption and thievery freely carried out by lawless Donetsk henchmen". Sevastopol's inhabitants, on the other hand, were voting specifically to join Russia. Fear of illegal armed groups was greater in Sevastopol than elsewhere in Ukraine.

Then on top of that we had a very good conversation with Koos about polling.

Koos Group posted:

Polling. A majority of Crimeans wanted to be part of Russia rather than Ukraine.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

That is far from settled. You may disagree with every single poll mentioned in the thread today, as well as with Putin�s own human rights counsel, that�s fine - but then I�d like to see what sort of evidence makes you state this as a fact. I�d like to think that I�m educated enough on the subject to not have missed overwhelming body of robust evidence of an absolute majority that supported joining Russia.

Seconding OddObserver�s questions on �how are they more self-determined�, I also am curious to ask if you think that the undetermined polls showed people�s support for being an region of Russia equal to others, or to be utterly disregarded and exploited by the occupation government like they were.

Koos Group posted:

Ah, I hadn't read your post with the polls, and apologize for engaging without having done so. I was not familiar with the polls showing non-majority support for secession in 2011 and 2014. However, I'm seeing more polls that have the contrary conclusion in the years before the referendum, in the days before the referendum, and following the referendum. Here they are in chronological order.

United Nations Development Programme, 2009-2011
https://web.archive.org/web/20140502000238/http://www.undp.crimea.ua/img/content/file/monitoring_ru_2009_10-12.pdf
https://web.archive.org/web/20140415042714/http://www.undp.crimea.ua/img/content/file/monitoring_ru_2010_10-12.pdf
https://web.archive.org/web/2014050...1%29%285%29.pdf
Conducting polls each quarter for a total of seven times, they found that about 2/3 of Crimeans consistently wanted to leave Ukraine and join Russia.

GfK Group, March 12-14 immediately before referendum
http://avaazpress.s3.amazonaws.com/558_Crimea.Referendum.Poll.GfK.pdf
This German pollster found that about 2/3 of Crimeans intended to vote to join the Russian Federation.

Gallup, immediate post-referendum
https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/media/2014/06/Ukraine-slide-deck.pdf
82.8% of Crimeans believe the results of the referendum reflect the views of Crimean people.

Pew Research, May 2014
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2014/05/08/despite-concerns-about-governance-ukrainians-want-to-remain-one-country/
Note: The headline refers to Ukraine as a whole, not Crimea in particular. The results of this survey is that 88% of Crimeans believe the Ukrainian government should recognize the referendum.

GfK, January 2015
https://orientalreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/GFK_report_FreeCrimea.pdf
The German pollster followed up on their work before the referendum, and found that 82% of Crimeans fully endorse the referendum, and another 11% "mostly" endorse it.

ZOiS, 2017
https://web.archive.org/web/20180222111030/https://www.zois-berlin.de/fileadmin/media/Dateien/ZOiS_Reports/ZOiS_Report_3_2017.pdf
This German firm found over 70% of Crimeans said they would vote the same if the referendum were held today (which was 2017).

It is worth noting that all of the polls I've linked were conducted either by NATO countries or the UN. If they had a political bias in the matter, it would be against the legitimacy of the referendum. There were also polls conducted by Russia that showed the same results but I did not include.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Thanks, I appreciate this. I'd like to briefly comment on these reports, as I'm familiar with all of them

United Nations Development Programme, 2009-2011
This is the first poll I mention in my post about polls. Herein, we must first clarify which of the two distinct questions do we talk about.

1) "There are different opinions on the preferred status for Crimea. Which of the following does correspond the most to your views? In your opinion, Crimea should be: ...?"

For this question, the leading option in the polled period was "autonomous region of Russian Federation", polling in the 40s for all individual time periods that I've examined from this programme. The one I referenced in my post was the last one in the series, as far as I know, with this figure standing at 41%.

2) "In the event of a referendum for merging Crimea into Russia, how would you vote?"

For this question, the leading option in the polled period was "for merging", polling in the 60s for all individual time periods that I've examined from this programme. The one I referenced in my post was the last one in the series, as far as I know, with this figure standing at 65.6%.

These are two different questions, and in my opinion the first is more informative than the second, regarding the topic of the conversation. I say that because people in Crimea, much like elsewhere, may have different motivations to cast a vote - to support their preferred policy, to oppose the status quo without explicitly supporting what they vote for, and, amongst other motivations, to express their frustration by trying to shake things up. For context on why I highlight the latter, please refer to the closing paragraph of my post with polls - rural Crimeans were predominantly just frustrated with the quality of public government.

GfK Group, March 12-14

On February 27, Russian gunmen did occupy Crimea's parliament. The same day, the parliament conveniently convened to terminate the government of Crimea, and to replace its prime minister with a known Russian mobster.

February 28, the military invasion began, and on March 1 Russia began to issue Russian passports in Crimea. By March 8, Crimea was fully occupied (border with mainland Ukraine shut). Consequently, by that point:

1) foreign army of tens of thousands of soldiers was prominently stationed throughout the island;
2) people who could flee had fled;
3) people who couldn't flee but didn't support Russia were taking precautions against Russian spy services and turncoat Crimeans because losing their lives, proverbially or literally, over political opinions Russians didn't like was fresh in everyone's memories;
4) Russian propaganda machine was hitting its crescendo.

Gallup, April 2014; Pew, May 2014; and GfK, January 2015

Along the same line of reasoning, the additional concern here is simply the honeymoon period of nationalist fervour, and Russia bribing the population rather openly with a host of benefits. Besides, in GfK poll 55% of respondents say that Crimea was merged into Russia illegally, and that the act of merging must be redone properly.

ZOiS, 2017

At this point, Crimean Tatars were made example of, plenty of "loyalists" deported or otherwise left, plenty of Russia settlers had arrived, alongside generic migration from Russia, and Russian internal security services were already fully established in Crimea to keep control over the rest, 3 years of full on pressure from Russian political machine or the mass-media subservient to it were in effect, and other deteriorating, for quality of survey, factors took place. ZOiS say themselves as much (emphasis mine): It is clear that the survey conditions are not ideal, but this is not a reason for not listening to the Crimeans� own voice. The extent to which answers to some of the politically charged questions, regarding the status of Crimea or the impact of the Western sanctions, reflect actually held beliefs is impossible to determine.

To summarize, I do dispute that Crimea after Russian soldiers arrived and Crimea before that are the same, and can be compared via polling like you did.

Koos Group posted:

cinci zoo sniper posted:
United Nations Development Programme, 2009-2011

If we focus on the one you did, there is plurality support for joining Russia and majority support for no longer being under the governance of Ukraine. Joining Russia, then, would seem to be the most democratic course, and indeed this is reflected by the answers to other question.

cinci zoo sniper posted:
GfK Group, March 12-14
Gallup, April 2014; Pew, May 2014; and GfK, January 2015

I must note that having a "fervour" or a certain voter decision being influenced by the rewards of the decision don't make a vote illegitimate. Those suppositions are used in antidemocratic rhetoric, and while I don't believe you're anti-democracy I would consider what exactly the implications are of your arguments.

For the majority that would like the act of merging to be done properly, that comes back to the crux of my argument that started the whole thing: if governance of Crimea were transferred from Russia to Ukraine, it would not be redone properly. Or at all. You note later that Crimea has changed since the Russian troops were stationed there, and while that argument adds an element of unfalsifiability since it de-ligitimizes any way to measure public opinion from a certain point forward, it's not unreasonable that the demographics or opinions might have changed since 2014. But the issue in the original post I was responding to was ultimately not about Crimea in 2014, it's about Crimea in 2022.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Koos Group posted:
If we focus on the one you did, there is plurality support for joining Russia and majority support for no longer being under the governance of Ukraine. Joining Russia, then, would seem to be the most democratic course, and indeed this is reflected by the answers to other question.

I do agree with the statement that �plurality supported joining Russia�. Majority support for no longer being in Ukraine - also true, with a small remark that the majority determination might have been within the statistical margin of error for the poll. Q4 2011 full results:

41% - join Russia
19.1% - remain autonomous in Ukraine with increased privileges
12.4% - remain autonomous in Ukraine with current privileges
11% - become a sovereign nation
8.3% - don�t know
6.1% - become an ordinary region of Ukraine
2% - become a region under President�s direct management
0.1% - remain autonomous in Ukraine with reduced privilege

Tallying:

41% - Russia
39.7% - Ukraine
11% - independence
8.3% - undetermined

The reason why I�m bringing these numbers up for the last time is that referendums in Ukraine, and thus Crimea, can only contain specific �yes or no� questions. Even consolidated, neither option would�ve counted as passing at the time, since the asking questions would�ve been �Do you support Crimea becoming an autonomous region of Russian Federation?�, which obviously this bombs the national territorial referendum - I�m just explaining my interpretation of the numbers.

Koos Group posted:
I must note that having a "fervour" or a certain voter decision being influenced by the rewards of the decision don't make a vote illegitimate. Those suppositions are used in antidemocratic rhetoric, and while I don't believe you're anti-democracy I would consider what exactly the implications are of your arguments.

For clarity, I do not claim that the votes people cast are illegitimate, or that their answers to post-referendum polls are illegitimate. My claims here, distilling, are as follows:

1) The �referendum� in Crimea was organised poorly enough, from electoral management perspective, that it is impossible to determine even just if the results published reflect the ballots cast. It captured genuine political will of at least some residents of Crimea, undoubtedly, but only that. Consequently, it must not be interpreted as a legitimate (lawful) expression of will of the Crimeans (hence, �referendum� in quotes).

2) Polling responses around the �referendum� date, and especially in its immediate aftermath, were most likely influenced by nationalist fervour. That doesn�t mean people didn�t feel like that at the time. All that means is that their rhetoric at the time is sharply different from the time before, and the time after.

If I were to split the time continuum of �politically engaged Crimeans�, I would devise 3 cohorts:

a) �pre-referendum� - 2012 to arrival of Russian soldiers
b) �referendum� - 0 to 2 years from the arrival
c) �post-referendum� - 2+ years from the arrival

I make this split only for the sake of introducing nuance into comparing polls from different time periods. Specifically, one could think that B and C are similar. They may be right, but I have a different opinion. I think that discourse/behaviours are more similar between A and C, with my claim being that behaviours of B were affected by what I called nationalist fervour. This doesn�t make opinions expressed by B illegitimate - I just would not compare them to C at face value, possibly at all, with my argument being that fervour is ephemeral and emotional, and their rhetoric, thus, not reproducible over time. Hopefully a helpful analogy - compare going to supermarket hungry to going full.

As a side note, while I would argue that A and C are more, for the lack of better word, analytical in their behaviours, that doesn�t make their poll responses particularly comparable either, hopefully for obvious reasons.

Koos Group posted:
For the majority that would like the act of merging to be done properly, that comes back to the crux of my argument that started the whole thing: if governance of Crimea were transferred from Russia to Ukraine, it would not be redone properly. Or at all. You note later that Crimea has changed since the Russian troops were stationed there, and while that argument adds an element of unfalsifiability since it de-ligitimizes any way to measure public opinion from a certain point forward, it's not unreasonable that the demographics or opinions might have changed since 2014. But the issue in the original post I was responding to was ultimately not about Crimea in 2014, it's about Crimea in 2022.

I do agree both that locally neither Ukraine nor Russia were equipped, at the time, to run a strictly-speaking proper referendum on the subject, and that it would have not happened in the event of rightful return of governance to Ukraine. Should Ukraine do it is a different question, where at this point I primarily want to say that its disinterest or refusal does not warrant a military invasion.

I do likewise agree that the opinions have changed since 2014, especially as of 2022. My note here is that we know that demographics have seen a drastic enough shift that we must ask ourselves if it is the opinions that changed, or the people. The answer is both, but no one can tell to what extent. Given that, and peculiarities of Russia�s political system, my closing argument on this topic is that we have no reliable way to tell if public opinion measured in Crimea equitably represents the majority view of native Crimean population, defined, for the sake of clarity, as all inhabitants of Crimea as of February 19, 2014, and their family members.

Koos Group posted:

Good points. I don't have much to add beyond what's been said. It's been a pleasure having this discussion.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 09:05

gay picnic defence: Oct 5, 2009; I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Captain Kosmos posted:

First fighting Opels has arrived
https://twitter.com/stoa1984/status/1500565212893696012?s=20&t=xbi6Cgb2Tb5PnBZvtqd35g
Wrecked Opel STW, blurred corpses on the ground

I mean it sucks that some dudes died but if that is the best they can come up with, lol

# ? Mar 7, 2022 09:09

thehandtruck: Mar 5, 2006; the thing about the jews is,

Cugel the Clever posted:

It's easy to succumb to feeling like there's nothing we as onlookers can do in this terrible situation, but there are meaningful steps you, dear reader, can take that will have a real impact:

donate — check the donation thread for reputable charities

evangelize — most folks have limited context on events and might struggle to parse between fact and Russian imperialist propaganda; start a conversation and help them in the right direction

contact your reps — demand of your elected officials support for refugees, aid to the government of Ukraine, a complete crackdown on Russian oligarchs, and advancement of nuclear energy

decarbonize — Putin's regime, as well as a few atrocious fellows, are insanely dependent on the export of fossil fuels to sustain their grip on power; where possible, explore your options to switch away from gas-guzzling autos to bus and bike and, if feasible, swap out your home's fuel-burning appliances for electrics

Enormous credit, of course, to those posters who actually are in a position to aid on the ground. It's awesome that goons are playing a small role in helping people through these trying times.

I enjoy your other posts so this one felt like opening a mimic chest in dark souls.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 09:13

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1500739535558356993

30 aircraft is unlikely an accurate number, but even with just 3 aircraft destroyed that�s some quality security for a city they claim to control, since this sounds like bunch of marines Javelining an airfield. Has anyone seen any footage to confirm this?

# ? Mar 7, 2022 09:18

Sir John Falstaff: Apr 13, 2010

Captain Kosmos posted:

First fighting Opels has arrived

Wondering about that one--the lettering on Russian vehicles is usually in white, not red, and I wouldn't have thought there would have been time for the vehicles from Russia to have arrived yet.

Although, I suppose they could have commandeered a car in Ukraine and marked it there. Still, I think I'd like a little more suport for that tweet before taking it at face value.

Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 09:35 on Mar 7, 2022

# ? Mar 7, 2022 09:23

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 24, 2024 11:14

Fans: Jun 27, 2013; A reptile dysfunction

For some ungodly reason people have taken to spamming twitter with pictures of bodies in reply to pretty much any Ukraine tweet. So if you ain�t up for that best to stay out of them.

# ? Mar 7, 2022 09:26

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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