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the popes toes posted:No, not creepy at all. And why are you saying "reminiscent"?
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Mar 7, 2022 13:54
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FishMcCool posted:And an official end to the territorial disputes which underpin the western sanctions. I don't think those terms would be bad for Russia at all. They’re saying those terms would be poo poo for Ukraine, which they would be. Absorb all war damage incurred, irrevocably lose chunk of your territory and people, and concede control over your economic and foreign policies to an enemy state. That’s not really a “deal”, and Ukrainians are not bloodthirsty by refusing to surrender according to Russian preferences - and neither is bloodthirsty any commenter calling that a poo poo deal that’s unlikely to be accepted by Ukraine.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:54
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keep punching joe posted:Lol absolutely not, China doesn't want Taiwan and state mentioned in the same sentence by any country regardless of context. That was the joke. 
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Mar 7, 2022 13:55
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Concerned Citizen posted:I mean, they dropped the demands for denazification and demilitarization in that tweet, so again, IF THAT IS ACCURATE, they have lowered their demands and that is a good thing. It means a deal is possible. You are missing the fact that the world keeps Russia in the economic siege as well and there is a national default coming this week if supreme commander smoothbrain doesnt agree to a real offramp
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Mar 7, 2022 13:55
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Neurolimal posted:Plenty of red meat for groups to assume he was either Jayms Bondisky, Alec Trevelyan, or a diplomat who was too soft on Russia and punished for it. The best one of these I saw on twitter was someone claiming he was bumped off by the Nazi powers behind the throne because he was too moderate, there's a lot of fanfiction coming to the fore these days
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Mar 7, 2022 13:57
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cinci zoo sniper posted:They’re saying those terms would be poo poo for Ukraine, which they would be. Absorb all war damage incurred, irrevocably lose chunk of your territory and people, and concede control over your economic and foreign policies to an enemy state. That’s not really a “deal”, and Ukrainians are not bloodthirsty by refusing to surrender according to Russian preferences - and neither is bloodthirsty any commenter calling that a poo poo deal that’s unlikely to be accepted by Ukraine. Oh I agree. But there are a few comments mentioning how little Russia would get out of that deal, and here I disagree. Those terms would likely put a term to most sanctions and leave Russia to only have to deal with their internal unrest suppression (when the dead bodies don't come home from their training exercise).
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Mar 7, 2022 13:58
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'Zelensky can stay on as president' is a pinky promise from Russia not to murder him within 12 months which I would not accept in a heartbeat.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:58
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Tuxedo Gin posted:I'm not an expert in international relations but it seems like the only reason you don't want someone to join a defensive alliance would be because you plan to invade them. Ukraine would be foolish to agree to neutrality. It could work if there were some kind of guarantee that Russia would never invade Ukraine again. Maybe some kind of alliance that would protect them in that case...
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Mar 7, 2022 13:59
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On a lighter note, the Putin being in an empty room and CGI'd into the meeting with stewardesses myth lives on. https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/status/1500507734797660163
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Mar 7, 2022 13:59
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Concerned Citizen posted:I mean, they dropped the demands for denazification and demilitarization in that tweet, so again, IF THAT IS ACCURATE, they have lowered their demands and that is a good thing. It means a deal is possible. They didn't actually drop it. They just said that they are going to finish it up, and then they want all of these demands met before they'll consider forgiving Ukraine. Ukraine needs a hell of a lot more than Russia to just 'exit the field'. There's 'untrusted' and then there's 'antitrust' and to Ukraine, Russia is 'antitrust'.
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Mar 7, 2022 13:59
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Concerned Citizen posted:Again, I wonder whether they intend to try and block the EU entry as well. The terms in question bar Ukraine’s participation in any international blocs.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:00
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Fame Douglas posted:Why do you keep repeating this claim? Russia very obviously doesn't believe NATO to be an offensive alliance at all, otherwise they wouldn't have invaded Ukraine for fear of military repercussion. What better excuse for NATO turning into an offensive force would there be but Russia starting a war of aggression. This is just a talking point, not any kind of actual worry Putin has. Well, they know they can invade Ukraine because a military confrontation threatens nuclear war. They perceive NATO as an anti-Russian alliance, they have complained about enlargement from literally day one precisely due to this, decades ago. There is an infinite amount of Russian writing on this - it may surprise you to learn that many Russians believe they are the good guys and that NATO largely wants their destruction.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:00
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The fact is, this thing can end in a peace deal but this isn’t the right one. The Russian Military and Economy is bleeding out and has more to lose. So does Ukraine, but they are buying valuable time with expensive blood in the hopes that they don’t have to fight this war again in 10 years.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:00
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500812687009267712 Were Russians brain poisoned at some point by imported Chick Tracts or something? This reads like some American evangelical bullshit. When did Russia go from Godless Communists to borne again Christians so quickly?
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Mar 7, 2022 14:00
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Concerned Citizen posted:Literally no peace deal has ever been reached by two warring powers that trusted each other. Luckily, the only thing Ukraine needs is for Russia to exit the country and nothing else. This isn't a "victory or death" scenario here, Ukraine isn't going to rout Russia off the field. Both sides need a deal. Ukraine doesn't just need Russia to leave, it needs security guarantees or all of this will just continue in a few years, but with a different status quo. Russia cannot give any meaningful security guarantees because they've been shown to be untrustworthy as poo poo.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:01
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Concerned Citizen posted:Well, they know they can invade Ukraine because a military confrontation threatens nuclear war. They perceive NATO as an anti-Russian alliance, they have complained about enlargement from literally day one precisely due to this, decades ago. There is an infinite amount of Russian writing on this - it may surprise you to learn that many Russians believe they are the good guys and that NATO largely wants their destruction. Who gives a poo poo?
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Mar 7, 2022 14:01
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Atreiden posted:On a lighter note, the Putin being in an empty room and CGI'd into the meeting with stewardesses myth lives on. The Arnolfini
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Mar 7, 2022 14:01
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How are there still people claiming Finlandization would be the one trick that will get everyone out of this mess. One party to this agreement has shown they will break every agreement and treaty they signed the moment they think it's convenient, has stated they don't actually accept the independence and statehood of Ukraine, and has indicated "no bloc" means "don't join the Western bloc" because Russia is not interested in neutral Ukraine, it has to be Ukraine as an annexed Russian province or a puppet state. None of the demands have changed. It's still "we will stop mass murdering civilians if you unconditionally surrender and join the Third Russian Reich out of your own free will", just the wording changes slightly every time they release this statement. But yeah, let's give Putin the benefit of the doubt, maybe it will save lives this time 
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Mar 7, 2022 14:01
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I think Russia is bad.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:02
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FishMcCool posted:That was the joke. I'm a dummy.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:03
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Me at the gas pump this morning: “oh”
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Mar 7, 2022 14:03
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cinci zoo sniper posted:The terms in question bar Ukraine’s participation in any international blocs. But we don't know what is Russia is or is not willing to live with yet. Wuxi posted:Ukraine doesn't just need Russia to leave, it needs security guarantees or all of this will just continue in a few years, but with a different status quo. Russia cannot give any meaningful security guarantees because they've been shown to be untrustworthy as poo poo. This stance is literally "no peace deal ever," then. Just keep fighting until one side loses completely? Maybe the only real guarantee is the Ukrainian flag flying over Moscow? A few years later is worse for Russia. It's now or never at this point. Ukraine will be tougher to invade in 5 years than it is now. Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 14:05 on Mar 7, 2022 |
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Mar 7, 2022 14:03
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fatherboxx posted:You are missing the fact that the world keeps Russia in the economic siege as well and there is a national default coming this week if supreme commander smoothbrain doesnt agree to a real offramp Also, Americans and EU are working double-time on oil sanctions now, possibly gas sanctions - which will have much more immediate effect than the parallel work of reducing EU’s reliance on Russian energy sector.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:03
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ethanol posted:Me at the gas pump this morning: “EtOH” FTFY . Man, I hadn't even thought about how much increasing fuel price and restricting grain is gonna affect the price of booze...
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Mar 7, 2022 14:05
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KitConstantine posted:This seems like a bit of a shift for Orban. Hungary has been allowing Ukrainians to evacuate via their territory but this seems like a slight escalation from that. When I read this on Hungarian pages, I thought its some kind of typo. But it makes sense that Orban lets NATO troops (hold on... The Hungarian Army ARE NATO troops...) in but as FAR from the Ukrainian border as physically possible.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:05
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Concerned Citizen posted:But we don't know what is Russia is or is not willing to live with yet. Yeah we do, they started a war of total conquest over it.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:05
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Concerned Citizen posted:But we don't know what is Russia is or is not willing to live with yet. Will it? Because the terms of the agreement require demilitarization. Ukraine without its weapons and a pinky-promise "I swear not to murder you while giggling" from Putin.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:05
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TulliusCicero posted:Were Russians brain poisoned at some point by imported Chick Tracts or something? 1990s but people coming back into Church started in the 1980s when enforced atheism started showed its cracks. Yeltsin and friends worked hard to present new Russia as a Christian country - proper burial for the Tsar family, rebuilding of Cathedral of Christ the Saviour etc. Along the way, a number of officers in military and intelligence/security went nuts and started to think of themselves as reborn aristocracy.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:05
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Concerned Citizen posted:But we don't know what is Russia is or is not willing to live with yet. I disagree, we know fairly well. They mean to bar Ukraine from joining EU and NATO, and will only permit generic poo poo like UN, WTO, WHO, or IAEA.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:06
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TulliusCicero posted:Were Russians brain poisoned at some point by imported Chick Tracts or something? russia is basically chud paradise.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:06
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Kchama posted:Will it? Because the terms of the agreement require demilitarization. Ukraine without its weapons and a pinky-promise "I swear not to murder you while giggling" from Putin. Well, the actual thing posted in here earlier in this thread, that started this discussion, was Russia no longer asking for denazification and demilitarization.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:06
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Hannibal Rex posted:Adam Tooze ha been writing good analyses of the economic side. The tl;dr seems to be that since Iran managed to adapt to sanctions, Russia might too. Gas & oil sanctions would be important. The EU is working to prepare for them, which won't be easy for some countries. I've read that too, and thought it pretty interesting. But on the other hand, Iran was never as integrated into the Western economic order as Russia is/was until now. But the general point stands. Iran has a higher GDP/capita in PPP than South Africa for example. It's by no means a rich country, but still has a modicum of wealth despite being under some of the harshest sanctions in the world. And one of the main reasons is them being a petro-states. And it should be noted that their oil and gas industry is targeted by these harsh sanctions as well, while the West until now has explicitly excluded Russia's energy sector from the sanctions regime. And in the blog you linked, one author claimed that the increase in price for Russian gas has more than offset their losses due to nobody buying their oil. Of course the shock of a much more globally integrated Russia being cut of from much of the global economy could destabilize Russia's economy much more than Iran's economy was disrupted when the Mullahs took over that country. And certain military (and civilian) products will be difficult for Russia to make themselves as long as they are cut off from certain high-tech goods that are currently only produced in the Western aligned world. But as much as I also hope that the sanctions will contribute to force Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, it wouldn't surprise me if they failed to do so.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:06
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Concerned Citizen posted:Well, the actual thing posted in here earlier in this thread, that started this discussion, was Russia no longer asking for denazification and demilitarization. Someone posted another part of that where demilitarization and denazification are not on the list because they are going to 'do that first' before they will accept the 'ceasefire' (not even a peace treaty, just a 'we promise not to shoot you for now'). It also involved them putting a Russian stooge as PM.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:07
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FishMcCool posted:Oh I agree. But there are a few comments mentioning how little Russia would get out of that deal, and here I disagree. Those terms would likely put a term to most sanctions and leave Russia to only have to deal with their internal unrest suppression (when the dead bodies don't come home from their training exercise). Oh, I agree with you in that perspective. Russia clearly is talking through a bloodied nose here, but the terms remain to be lopsided in their favour.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:08
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I disagree, we know fairly well. They mean to bar Ukraine from joining EU and NATO, and will only permit generic poo poo like UN, WTO, WHO, or IAEA. We know what they want. We don't know what they will live with. They went to war with maximalist demands and they (seemingly) no longer have maximalist demands, so obviously something is moving here.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:09
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Concerned Citizen posted:We know what they want. We don't know what they will live with. They went to war with maximalist demands and they (seemingly) no longer have maximalist demands, so obviously something is moving here. So what you're saying is, Ukraine just has to keep fighting them and their demands will lessen and lessen. Sounds like a good reason to keep blowing up their tanks, then.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:10
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Atreiden posted:On a lighter note, the Putin being in an empty room and CGI'd into the meeting with stewardesses myth lives on. Speaking of myths, I just got linked a purported leak of a phone call between Putin and Shoygu: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBJGLU06Bcg Anyone seen this before? It’s way too good to be true, not even to speak of the plausibility of such a phone call leak to happen in the first place.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:10
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Kchama posted:Someone posted another part of that where demilitarization and denazification are not on the list because they are going to 'do that first' before they will accept the 'ceasefire' (not even a peace treaty, just a 'we promise not to shoot you for now'). Well, it sounds like they're claiming "yep we already basically destroyed the Ukrainian military!" as a fig leaf for having accomplished their objective, even though Ukraine is in fact better armed now than it was before the war. That is how I interpreted it, anyway.
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Mar 7, 2022 14:10
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ethanol posted:Me at the gas pump this morning: “oh” Me looking at how much a shower cost me this morning: "oh"
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Mar 7, 2022 14:11
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Somaen posted:Who gives a poo poo? Known other "they think they are the good guys" Nazi Germany
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