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Orthanc6 posted:Also money is more of an issue for Russia at this moment. Ukraine is getting these advanced anti-tank systems gift-wrapped under the tree from NATO. Whereas Russia is about to hit Great Depression 2022 within a month. If Modern Monetary Theory actually works like people on this forum have been claiming, seems like Russia could easily print their way out of this mess.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:09
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Antigravitas posted:What gets to me is, if I have my cold war theorycrafting right, it was NATO focusing on air power and the Russians focusing on tons of AA and artillery. Quite simply, they should not have contested air space against an inferior army at all. yeah in theory, their AAA and IADS are second to none. However, some decent-ish systems got clowned on in Armenia by Bayraktars and people started asking questions there. On the other hand, you could argue that Ukranian performance with Soviet SAM and IADS systems proves some of their effectiveness, since they seem to be doing well. In fact, both side's air defenses seem to be doing better than the air forces, so to me as a casual observer that indicates the systems are actually pretty decent and working as advertised. I would also point out that most of the systems, other than Pantsir, have not been designed with drones in mind because they predate the development and launch of big UAV programs. Drones are tricky for a variety of reasons - slow, hard to see, they loiter around, etc. It's not clear that Pantsir is necessarily underperforming. Due to the information asymmetry, we're only seeing when the fly stings the person, not when the flyswatter crushes the fly. Of course losing them in ditches etc doesn't look good, but that's not really the system's fault.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:09
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evilweasel posted:they are probably not secured by specific assets, but that's not the point. you go into, say, new york state court and say "i own this bond and the russian government didn't pay me, give me a judgment for the amount they owe me" and the new york court says "ok sure" According to Russian law they can just print a stack of rubles and you will have to accept them as payment!
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Mar 7, 2022 23:10
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HappyHippo posted:If you're blowing up trucks, yeah, but tanks probably cost more. Wikipedia says the missiles cost about $175k. Army trucks are pretty expensive, but once Russia gets that train load of civilian vehicles to the front it might be correct.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:12
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Nenonen posted:According to Russian law they can just print a stack of rubles and you will have to accept them as payment! Mint the trillion ruble coin, Vlad!
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Mar 7, 2022 23:13
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Speaking of irrepalaceable parts: https://twitter.com/EnglishUkraine/status/1500956632787869705?s=20&t=4EYHf9cVjgu-TPnc7ok_vA
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Mar 7, 2022 23:14
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Speaking of irrepalaceable parts: ukranian snipers doing some good work, it seems
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Mar 7, 2022 23:14
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Fame Douglas posted:If Modern Monetary Theory actually works like people on this forum have been claiming, seems like Russia could easily print their way out of this mess. That is not how MMT works or how (sane) people say it works! It's not a magic wand that lets you ignore economics writ large. It's a recognition of base underpinnings - how money flows, where it's created and how it's destroyed. If your base economic reality is that no-one is buying what you're selling, your material demands far outstrip your productive capacity, and no-one is willing to write you a $100B 0% interest check, you're still hosed, even if you understand that the state budget is not like a credit card.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:15
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The Ukrainian representative to the UN is speaking in the security council session. Slam dunks from this guy as usual, the Russian representative comes off as a heavy-handed goon compared to the eristic ease with witch his Ukrainian counterpart communicates.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:15
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Speaking of irrepalaceable parts: "I am the very model of a modern Major-General I've information vegetable, animal, and mineral I know the kings of England, and I quote the fights Historical From Marathon to Waterloo, in order categorical"
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Mar 7, 2022 23:16
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Speaking of irrepalaceable parts: What are all these generals doing on the front lines? When was the last time the US lost a general on the battlefield? WWI?
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Mar 7, 2022 23:16
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Often Abbreviated posted:That is not how MMT works or how (sane) people say it works! It's not a magic wand that lets you ignore economics writ large. It's a recognition of base underpinnings - how money flows, where it's created and how it's destroyed. If your base economic reality is that no-one is buying what you're selling, your material demands far outstrip your productive capacity, and no-one is willing to write you a $100B 0% interest check, you're still hosed, even if you understand that the state budget is not like a credit card. Pretty sure people are still buying the energy that Russia is selling.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:17
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Fame Douglas posted:If Modern Monetary Theory actually works like people on this forum have been claiming, seems like Russia could easily print their way out of this mess. Most nations get out of money issues because everyone else has too much to lose to just let the system destroy itself. That doesn't work when a nation is cut off from a bunch of those systems. Russia is not completely cut off, but they are more isolated than anyone now, so they are the most vulnerable. There's only so much a country can do on its own, especially if it has been part of the global economy for over 30 years and is not used to this isolation. Youth Decay posted:What are all these generals doing on the front lines? Maybe Putin's purging the incompetent by putting them in danger. Or they're just all incompetent together. Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 23:19 on Mar 7, 2022 |
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Mar 7, 2022 23:17
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Youth Decay posted:When was the last time the US lost a general on the battlefield? WWI? IIRC Korea when a divisional commander was captured during the Battle of Taejon after spending several days leading from the front, including taking a bazooka out to hunt North Korean tanks. He survived captivity and received the Medal of Honor. EDIT: I was wrong because a general got killed in Afghanistan Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 23:23 on Mar 7, 2022 |
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Mar 7, 2022 23:19
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Youth Decay posted:What are all these generals doing on the front lines? A few options, none mutual exclusive 1) They're not actually being killed on the front lines. The Ukranians have a bunch of guys running around in rear areas loving up convoys. Occasionally instead of catching a bunch of supplies you catch a headquarters element relocating. 2) Their HQs are being located by various means (electronic, human intelligence, etc) and are then being targeted by Ukranian artillery or airstrikes. Everyone loves trying to do this because the payoff is huge. 3) They are having a hard time with command and control and are having to move far forward to get a sense of what is happening on the battlefield, which has risks.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:21
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Just don't tell mom I'm in Ukraine
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Mar 7, 2022 23:21
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Youth Decay posted:What are all these generals doing on the front lines? Probably why the US has lost pretty much all wars since WWII.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:21
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Youth Decay posted:What are all these generals doing on the front lines? I found the answer for you by going to Google dot com and searching “last general to die in combat,” the automatic suggestion after a slightly different query I entered. Here’s the guy: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_J._Greene quote:Harold Joseph "Harry" Greene (February 11, 1959 – August 5, 2014) was a United States Army general who was killed during the War in Afghanistan. During his time with the United States Army, he held various commands associated with engineering and logistical support for United States and coalition troops. At the time of his death, he was deputy commanding general of Combined Security Transition Command – Afghanistan. I love to do OSINT
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Mar 7, 2022 23:22
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evilweasel posted:they are probably not secured by specific assets, but that's not the point. you go into, say, new york state court and say "i own this bond and the russian government didn't pay me, give me a judgment for the amount they owe me" and the new york court says "ok sure" Well, they didn't get to keep the boat, but they were such a stick in the mud in the US legal system that Argentina did eventually agree to pay them out at favorable terms.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:22
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Fame Douglas posted:Probably why the US has lost pretty much all wars since WWII. That's not how it works. That's not how anything works.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:23
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:That's not how it works. That's not how anything works. Oh for sure, man.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:24
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the popes toes posted:It's unwise and impractical but the fanciful movie in my mind has the negotiating team say, "Due to our evaluation of objective facts on the ground, we have decided to postpone further negotiations for one month." And the West stops calling Putin and refuses to answer his phone calls. Dumb, but it's my movie. My head movie is all ~clancychat~ but somehow with a happy ending and not many lives lost  (Do we have a :clancychat: smiley? Should there be one?) In actual news, Finnish paper writes more about Russia-Finland trains (in Finnish, also paywall). They are saying that before covid-19 there were 4 trains each way each day, but right now it's only 2 per day. However next week they are looking to increase it to 3 per day. Some Finnish railway dude was saying that since the trains are basically empty going from Helsinki to St Petersburg it's not profitable, but they're running the trains anyway "as a service". It can't be very high-capacity though, even when they add a 3rd daily train. From St Petersburg the trains are packed, tickets are sold out.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:24
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Speaking of irrepalaceable parts: Was it another case of him walking into the open, taking his hat off and stomping on it like Yosemite Sam, yelling at his subordinates and making it obvious to everyone within a mile exactly who is in charge
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Mar 7, 2022 23:25
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Dante posted:https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1500837526529060867?s=20&t=uiz-7JjVR8i_zSjwtfoh1A Kyiv is both an oblast and a city. There are definitely tanks in the oblast. There were also a number of clips with snow during the opening days of the campaign. So basically this "takedown" seems like nonsense?
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Mar 7, 2022 23:25
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Seriously though these aren't the days of the High Middle Ages where a general has to be visible at all time in the heat of battle or the troops will rout because they think he's dead. If your generals have to be in the very tip of the spear something has gone completely wrong with your operations.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:26
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 https://twitter.com/aldin_ww/status/1500950727258259456?cxt=HHwWgIC-uf2uudQpAAAAFighting around Mykolaiv airport. Some ATGM porn
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Mar 7, 2022 23:26
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Seriously though these aren't the days of the High Middle Ages where a general has to be visible at all time in the heat of battle or the troops will rout because they think he's dead. If your generals have to be in the very tip of the spear something has gone completely wrong with your operations. I feel like I read something a few days ago that was saying a lot of high ranking Russian officers were heading to the front line, but I forgot the reasoning behind it. I think it was to improve momentum or something.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:28
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Speaking of irrepalaceable parts: So they keep sending out these dudes hoping one of them will turn into Putin’s own Ciaphas cain but instead they end up getting droned or sniped.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:28
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Fame Douglas posted:Pretty sure people are still buying the energy that Russia is selling. Not enough. Wars are expensive. Having a healthy income to show to your creditors only matters if you have creditors - if people are willing to loan you more money. Russia's energy exports are nowhere near enough to support the functioning of their entire state + running a conventional peer conflict and once they default they're locked out of raising more money to cover the gap. Then you're just running down reserves. Once you're out of credit and out of reserves it's full on can't-even-pay-the-army meltdown. Often Abbreviated fucked around with this message at 23:34 on Mar 7, 2022 |
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Mar 7, 2022 23:30
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Youth Decay posted:When was the last time the US lost a general on the battlefield? WWI? We lost some in WW2. A handful died in WW2, both in and out of battle. We lost one in Afghanistan when a disgruntled Afghan soldier shot up a joint base killing the general and several others.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:31
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Speaking of irrepalaceable parts: Any relation to Valery Gerasimov (probably not)?
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Mar 7, 2022 23:31
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Speaking of irrepalaceable parts: How many General Gerasimovs are there,??
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Mar 7, 2022 23:32
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Any relation to Valery Gerasimov (probably not)? I did some frantic googling and nephew maybe.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:33
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Recoome posted:This is supposed to be the former head of the entire Russian military who was “fired” recently. Think that's Valery Gerasimov--different Gerasimov.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:33
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Recoome posted:
No, that's Valery Gerasimov. Gerasimov is a pretty generic family name
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Mar 7, 2022 23:33
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Yeah I did a double take. Send in General Smith
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Mar 7, 2022 23:34
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Liquid Chicken posted:"I am the very model of a modern Major-General This, except that last line is replaced with grape lady noises
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Mar 7, 2022 23:34
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https://twitter.com/julianborger/status/1500939069412491270
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Mar 7, 2022 23:37
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KitConstantine posted:Security Council meeting going on now - Russia's rep already spoke, it consisted of what you would expect.
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Mar 7, 2022 23:37
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Alchenar posted:I did some frantic googling and nephew maybe. There does seem to be potentially a bit of family resemblance, to me. I suppose if the higher ranks of the military are filled with failsons that could explain some things. Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 23:43 on Mar 7, 2022 |
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Mar 7, 2022 23:37
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