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Nenonen posted:Shouldn't it be the other way, ie. air raid siren -> delivery to home door imminent evilweasel posted:MBS is pissed off that the United States isn't treating him the way Trump did. That's it, that's the reason. TulliusCicero posted:North Korea probably has a more capable and functional military at this point  ....this might not be far off. Operationally it's very similar to the Russian army: it's arguably an artillery army with other branches in support. But it's larger operational formations--brigades and divisions--are actually staffed and North Korea's logistical systems would probably work fine on the peninsula.Chalks posted:Is that actually true though? We know they committed about 150k of troops to Ukraine and we also know that much of it was garbage. They have around 900k active duty troops. How do we go from the "these 150k troops appear to be really bad" to "these troops are the best Russia have to offer"? Russian BTGs are primarly staffed with contract soldiers. Conscripts are supposed to fill in the rear-echelon and support units. We're seeing some conscripts in this war, but it doesn't seem like Russia staffed entire BTGs with them or anything. The challenge Russia has is that they only have around 140-150 BTGs in total, and something like 120 of them are in theatre. Most of those 900K active duty troops are conscripts doing things like maintaining military bases, doing clerk work, guarding some facility in Siberia, etc.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:18
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Nenonen posted:It would be perverse for Putin to keep his elite troops guarding Kazakhstan or the border against Norway or whatever while sending the bottom of the barrel to fight the biggest war in Europe since WW2. The loyal elite are most likely securing his personal belongings, that bunker city his relatives are in, and St. Petersburg and Moscow. The Ukraine front gets everything else from where they are available; for example they have already sent battalions from the Finnish border to Ukraine. We know this because it caused a sort of minor poo poo storm here in Finland last week because US said in public that Karelian garrisons seem to be activating for something.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:18
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Chalks posted:Is that actually true though? We know they committed about 150k of troops to Ukraine and we also know that much of it was garbage. They have around 900k active duty troops. How do we go from the "these 150k troops appear to be really bad" to "these troops are the best Russia have to offer"? What's the point of having elite soldiers if you're not gonna show them off the one time you actually do a war. How is that more plausible lol.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:20
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It would make sense for Putin to keep back some of his elites but you also, presumably, want to win the war. Comedy option: His elite forces were the VDV who went to seize Hostomel! The best of Russia!
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Mar 9, 2022 22:20
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the popes toes posted:Hey, is aircraft maintenance a decent MOS with respect to a civvie career? Kind of. You have to get A&P certified to work on civilian airframes, but it gives you a lot of the experience on maintenance. Only major difference is aircraft mechanics in the civilian world tend to be more "Jack of All Trades" whereas the USAF you learn a specific field (e.g. Avionics, Flight Controls, Powerplant, Fuel, etc.), except for Crew Chiefs who are generalists.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:20
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edit: nvm
Grouchio fucked around with this message at 22:32 on Mar 9, 2022 |
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Mar 9, 2022 22:21
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Ynglaur posted:Russian BTGs are primarly staffed with contract soldiers. Conscripts are supposed to fill in the rear-echelon and support units. We're seeing some conscripts in this war, but it doesn't seem like Russia staffed entire BTGs with them or anything. The challenge Russia has is that they only have around 140-150 BTGs in total, and something like 120 of them are in theatre. Most of those 900K active duty troops are conscripts doing things like maintaining military bases, doing clerk work, guarding some facility in Siberia, etc. Wow that's actually insane if that's accurate. Were the 120 in the theatre from the start, or is that including groups that have been sent there from other parts of the country since things starting going badly?
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Mar 9, 2022 22:21
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Chalks posted:Especially given that a bunch of conscripts and riot cops where sent in in the first wave, isn't it more plausible that they sent a bunch of garbage units in while holding back their better units because they thought they wouldn't be needed? its possible but i wouldn't call this plausible. this is like all the ninjas standing around fighting the hero one at a time levels of combat planning. its like sending in all your back benchers to start in the championship game there is no logical reason at all why you would send your worst troops in first and hold your better guys for later. even if this were the plan, it would be a terrible plan, which is itself evidence of lovely planning what is more likely is that the best guys (and a lot of the not-so-best guys) were sent in with a lovely plan and got wrecked, and now they've got to scramble to come up with a less lovely plan Chalks posted:Wow that's actually insane if that's accurate. Were the 120 in the theatre from the start, or is that including groups that have been sent there from other parts of the country since things starting going badly? russia mustered their best 200k troops before the entire war. this is why there were weeks of warning of an invasion, it is not possible to drive 200k troops up to the border without it being incredibly noticed on satellites 200k troops is a shitload of troops. thats about the same number of troops the united states brought to iraq in the 2003 invasion, plus another 100k from allied nations. russia can't really scrape up more troops than that because it is already a shitload of troops, and that still not enough troops to get the job done. this is why russia tried a fast decapitation strike and when that plan failed, there's a big fat question mark after that about what to do next Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 22:26 on Mar 9, 2022 |
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Mar 9, 2022 22:22
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Nessus posted:It would make sense for Putin to keep back some of his elites but you also, presumably, want to win the war. VDV aren't like best of the best, but they really were supposed to be elite units. There's no way to spin losing them as a good thing. It would be one thing if Russia took a risky gamble and lost that roll of the dice while things were more or less going well otherwise, but I think it's really hard to say things are going well otherwise.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:23
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Sinteres posted:VDV aren't like best of the best, but they really were supposed to be elite units. There's no way to spin losing them as a good thing. It would be one thing if Russia took a risky gamble and lost that roll of the dice while things were more or less going well otherwise, but I think it's really hard to say things are going well otherwise. Plus, they elected to roll that dice how many times now? Haven't we heard of multiple paratroop operation that went to poo poo by now?
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Mar 9, 2022 22:25
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:its possible but i wouldn't call this plausible. this is like all the ninjas standing around fighting the hero one at a time levels of combat planning. its like sending in all your back benchers to start in the championship game that's not really true my understanding is that historically it is very common that the strategy is you lead with the more "fodder" units and hold the elite units in reserve, which are then deployed based on the results of the initial wave - you identify a weak point and send the elite unit there, or part of your attack is failing and needs reinforcement by people who know what they're doing that said you wouldn't keep them out of the theater entirely, you'd just have them be the units sent in last of the units attached to the offensive.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:25
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evilweasel posted:my understanding is that historically it is very common that the strategy is you lead with the more "fodder" units and hold the elite units in reserve, which are then deployed based on the results of the initial wave this would be something to do if you don't have very good intelligence on where the enemy is. if you DO know where he is, or what your key objectives are (kyiv) then you would absolutely send your best troops in first because they have the highest chance of achieving the objective. this is why VDV got tasked with seizing the antonov airport northwest of kyiv if you want to talk about, like, the roman legions or something then yeah they'd send in the new guys first to skirmish and save the skilled vets for the cleanup. in a more modern combined arms fight though you need all your best troops up front leading the charge or else your plan is flawed from the start
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Mar 9, 2022 22:31
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Grouchio posted:Have any other sources been talking about this? I thought the narrative was 'russia trying to false flag a chemical attack and blame it on Ukraine'. And not drop it on Kiev. I don't know, but it doesn't sound really likely? Maybe some units with that capability have been active and followed by western intelligence, or something. If Russia actually used chemical weapons against Kyiv then I think even China would find it hard to pretend that nothing big is happening. I do hope Ukraine is prepared for chemical war with appropriate protections, in which case it wouldn't be as effective as against insurgents in Syria. Of course battle chemicals come in many sorts, some are just irritants etc.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:32
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I will not go so far as to say the "Russia, charge!" chant is the same as a Nazi salute buuuuuut they should probably specify if they want the kids to use an open or closed fist... https://twitter.com/YMonastyrskyi/status/1501666277919707150 nevermind I just saw the Zwastika sweatshirts this is just Hitler poo poo.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:32
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Nenonen posted:I don't know, but it doesn't sound really likely? Maybe some units with that capability have been active and followed by western intelligence, or something. If Russia actually used chemical weapons against Kyiv then I think even China would find it hard to pretend that nothing big is happening. I do hope Ukraine is prepared for chemical war with appropriate protections, in which case it wouldn't be as effective as against insurgents in Syria. Of course battle chemicals come in many sorts, some are just irritants etc.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:33
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I want to see images of an IL-76 crash
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Mar 9, 2022 22:33
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KitConstantine posted:https://twitter.com/Bundeskanzler/status/1501578380134727683?t=0q8nhw39JRR4SdeW3uz73A&s=19 He isn't wrong though? The endgame of this has always been a diplomatic solution, i.e. Ukraine shows that Russia has no chance of colonizing it and Putin takes some consolation price and fucks off.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:33
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Sooooo the Ukrainians may have seized a Russian [EDIT NOT A COMMAND COMPUTER STILL NEAT] I'm gonna spoiler this https://twitter.com/ua_industrial/status/1501670813950484489?t=gXDZ_0JPoX-oJSgZDlf4zg&s=19  I don't know what I want more: for it to be real or a troll about the NATO computer thing It's a device to secure phone lines. So mostly it just hurts the Russians to lose rather than help the Ukrainians KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 22:47 on Mar 9, 2022 |
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Mar 9, 2022 22:34
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https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1501668072616255498?s=20&t=bl1xmau57ebHeLOBXUx3bg Hmmmm
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Mar 9, 2022 22:35
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evilweasel posted:that's not really true It's a very Soviet idea, down to sending penal battalions to clear minefields by walking across them. But it's predicated on having your special "storm"/"guards"/"shock"/etc. units reasonably close at hand to quickly react to the results of your initial feeling out operations. You don't leave them like 1,000km away or some poo poo. Plus of course the Russians have shown no ability to make big operational moves on the map, everyone is just stuck on the axis they started on and can't mutually support each other it seems. There is no "swing the 8th Order of the Red Star Tank Army round to encircle them!" going on here, it's just mud and traffic jams and fuckery all the way down.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:36
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Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1501668072616255498?s=20&t=bl1xmau57ebHeLOBXUx3bg Just some spec ops dudes on holiday, nothing to see here!
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Mar 9, 2022 22:36
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Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1501668072616255498?s=20&t=bl1xmau57ebHeLOBXUx3bg I heard about one instance of this on the news earlier today, it was a 19 year old kid so it's not some secret way to send elite troops to go fight.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:37
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https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1501651655128985610?s=21 Hmm
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Mar 9, 2022 22:38
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:this would be something to do if you don't have very good intelligence on where the enemy is. if you DO know where he is, or what your key objectives are (kyiv) then you would absolutely send your best troops in first because they have the highest chance of achieving the objective. this is why VDV got tasked with seizing the antonov airport northwest of kyiv The other problem is that unlike lets say WW1, your elite armies and cannon fodder are not that differently equipped. Sure they have NV goggles, customized small arms and fast mobile support weapons, but they still wear the body armor that cannot take .50 bullet and walk away, nor are their vehicles impervious to Javelins or their air support immune to MANPADS and such. They will take fever losses because they actually know what they are doing, but are not above and beyond the same hazards than the normal troops. Against hardened positions with an enemy that has suitable equipment and training they aren't the silver bullet that magically solves things.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:38
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TulliusCicero posted:Just some spec ops dudes on holiday, nothing to see here! They are just desperate for a good holiday spot since Brexit.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:38
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Chalks posted:Wow that's actually insane if that's accurate. Were the 120 in the theatre from the start, or is that including groups that have been sent there from other parts of the country since things starting going badly? I haven't seen any OSINT that Russia has sent new BTGs to the theatre of operations since a few weeks before the invasion. Another good thread from "Actually Gondor can teach us about Russian logistics". Whatever your politics, Mao--and subsequently, Ho Chi Minh--were brilliant strategists who understood the operational art of war very well. Fun fact: both studied George Washington, who, it should be remembered, won only three battles during the US Revolutionary War. (We won't count battles in the French and Indian War.) All three have lessons that apply to Ukraine today. https://twitter.com/BretDevereaux/status/1501597634473123842?s=20&t=AEEys-PZEDDs_MGeiGz_hA
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Mar 9, 2022 22:38
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Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1501668072616255498?s=20&t=bl1xmau57ebHeLOBXUx3bg 
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Mar 9, 2022 22:38
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KitConstantine posted:Sooooo the Ukrainians may have seized a Russian combat command computer. I'm gonna spoiler this Not really sure it was a good idea to tweet that sort of thing out.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:40
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Is that the rig they give to the posters-at-arms?
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Mar 9, 2022 22:42
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KitConstantine posted:Sooooo the Ukrainians may have seized a Russian combat command computer. I'm gonna spoiler this Do all modern command computers look like they run DOS? It doesn't look particularly uh, updated?
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Mar 9, 2022 22:42
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Nenonen posted:This is the dumbest take I've heard yet. All of Russia's forces worth of reckon are concentrated in Ukraine, and they are doing abysmally against a second grade army of a third world economy after years of planning and months of preparing. The second grade army of a third world economy of another remarkably corruption plagued nation, at that
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Mar 9, 2022 22:43
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TulliusCicero posted:Do all modern command computers look like they run DOS? i mean yeah, you don't send a high-end laptop to a warzone because high-end laptops are geared for a student or a businessman carrying it around, not being in a war zone you send something into a warzone that is ugly and heavy and when you drop it on the ground it leaves a dent in the ground instead of shattering
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Mar 9, 2022 22:44
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Cimber posted:Not really sure it was a good idea to tweet that sort of thing out. It's apparently not as cool as I thought and I'm gonna edit it It's a device to secure phone lines. So mostly it just hurts the Russians to lose rather than help the Ukrainians https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1501672535687151617?t=YawPdqNoZc_NMZFsFdWDMw&s=19
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Mar 9, 2022 22:46
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KitConstantine posted:Sooooo the Ukrainians may have seized a Russian combat command computer. I'm gonna spoiler this I'm the rotary phone.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:46
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Nessus posted:Is that the rig they give to the posters-at-arms? Gonna SMS a post on my rotary dial phone about how it's barbaric to support Ukrainians resisting invasion, you have to give peace a chance by letting dictators roll over you unopposed. Oops forgot an italics tag give me 14 more minutes here
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Mar 9, 2022 22:47
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KitConstantine posted:Sooooo the Ukrainians may have seized a Russian combat command computer. I'm gonna spoiler this I like that design. It looks much like Finnish Sanla, just bigger. (Sanla has been replaced by Toshiba Toughbooks running Windows like 10 years ago.) Not sure what to think of that rotary dial telephone though... 
Nenonen fucked around with this message at 22:49 on Mar 9, 2022 |
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Mar 9, 2022 22:47
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KitConstantine posted:Sooooo the Ukrainians may have seized a Russian combat command computer. I'm gonna spoiler this According to replies this bad boy costed around 6 000 usd pre collapse fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 22:55 on Mar 9, 2022 |
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Mar 9, 2022 22:48
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Nenonen posted:This is the dumbest take I've heard yet. All of Russia's forces worth of reckon are concentrated in Ukraine, and they are doing abysmally against a second grade army of a third world economy after years of planning and months of preparing. If they now mobilized reserves against other countries, it would end badly - for Russians. Putin is not prepared for an expansion of hostilities which is why Russia is talking about nuclear war. That's his only defense right now against threats from the outside. This is what is baffling to me Did Putin never inspect this poo poo, or any of his lackeys for that matter? Did no one have the ability at any point to go "sir we currently don't have the military power to invade and occupy Ukraine"? It's amazing at the sheer failure at every level to remotely just look into poo poo before invading
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Mar 9, 2022 22:48
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KitConstantine posted:Sooooo the Ukrainians may have seized a Russian [EDIT NOT A COMMAND COMPUTER STILL NEAT] I'm gonna spoiler this Era encryption looks very strong
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TulliusCicero posted:This is what is baffling to me
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