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TulliusCicero posted:This is what is baffling to me Everybody up and down the line owed their careers to lying about Russia's military capabilities.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:51
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TulliusCicero posted:This is what is baffling to me in a corrupt and authoritarian state it is far easier to just lie about readiness if you can't control the situation but you WILL absorb the consequences this is what a well funded and transparent bureaucracy is intended to prevent. the us military is a bloated mess but you can go to a superior officer and talk about problems without ruining your career
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Mar 9, 2022 22:52
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Wow, Russians really are speedrunning the Syria playbook.. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1501675123161677828?t=2by6mOB93qwL3bgWgGKBiQ&s=19 NATO can sit and watch from across the border. Get a nice long look from their satellites.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:53
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Nenonen posted:I don't know, but it doesn't sound really likely? Maybe some units with that capability have been active and followed by western intelligence, or something. If Russia actually used chemical weapons against Kyiv then I think even China would find it hard to pretend that nothing big is happening. I do hope Ukraine is prepared for chemical war with appropriate protections, in which case it wouldn't be as effective as against insurgents in Syria. Of course battle chemicals come in many sorts, some are just irritants etc. This was the article. KitConstantine posted:https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1501675123161677828?t=2by6mOB93qwL3bgWgGKBiQ&s=19
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Mar 9, 2022 22:53
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Der Kyhe posted:The loyal elite are most likely securing his personal belongings, that bunker city his relatives are in, and St. Petersburg and Moscow. The Ukraine front gets everything else from where they are available; for example they have already sent battalions from the Finnish border to Ukraine. We know this because it caused a sort of minor poo poo storm here in Finland last week because US said in public that Karelian garrisons seem to be activating for something. Yeah, 2 out of 3 of the brigades on the Finnish border garrisons have sent their combat battalions to Ukraine.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:53
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TulliusCicero posted:This is what is baffling to me He inspects it yearly, its called Victory Parade on May 9. 
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Mar 9, 2022 22:53
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Nessus posted:Do YOU want to be the guy who tells Putin, "no, we can't do that?" Better if we maybe try to... you know, softball him... It isn't completely out of the question that Putin might think that his armies are equipped with those scifi-reject body armor dudes and T-14 Armata-platformed vehicles. It is a cleptocracy after all, and the top man stays happy if he sees them in the parades and his Yes-men tell him how well everything is going. Also, that taking Ukraine is like running over Alabama with "shock and awe"-strategy.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:55
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TulliusCicero posted:This is what is baffling to me Multiple factors: - no one knew the full extent of the graft that toke place and we are know seeing the full cumulative effect of it. - few people believed that a near-peer level conventional war would ever take place. Why get disciplined/fired/"suicided" if you can just pretend everything is fine until your unit is stuck on the road to Kyiv. The invasion actually taking place and Ukraine not faltering in days are two very unexpected events.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:55
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Der Kyhe posted:It isn't completely out of the question that Putin might think that his armies are equipped with those scifi-reject body armor dudes and T-14 Armata-platformed vehicles. It is a cleptocracy after all, and the top man stays happy if he sees them in the parades and his Yes-men tell him how well everything is going. Also, that taking Ukraine is like running over Alabama with "shock and awe"-strategy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=283bDqu92PY
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Mar 9, 2022 22:57
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Downside to US Army rank-and-file: Maintenance platoon sergeants are going to be insufferable after this
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Mar 9, 2022 22:57
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TulliusCicero posted:This is what is baffling to me Well, part of the problem is that the same people who would tell him “we are not ready to invade Ukraine” are likely the same people skimming billions from the defense budget. Inevitably Putin’s next question would be “Why not? Where did all the money go?” and any answer they could muster would likely end with a short trip off of a tall building.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:57
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TulliusCicero posted:Did Putin never inspect this poo poo, or any of his lackeys for that matter? Did no one have the ability at any point to go "sir we currently don't have the military power to invade and occupy Ukraine"? My stupid wild rear end guess is that in 2014 Putin asked his generals when the army would be ready to fully invade Ukraine, and they threw 2022 just hoping Vova would forget about it. Or they did all their planning based on how Ukraine and the west acted in 2014.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:58
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Nenonen posted:My stupid wild rear end guess is that in 2014 Putin asked his generals when the army would be ready to fully invade Ukraine, and they threw 2022 just hoping Vova would forget about it. Or they did all their planning based on how Ukraine and the west acted in 2014. Yeah. Against 2014 Ukraine this would have annihilated them. Not so much anymore, as we've seen.
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Mar 9, 2022 22:59
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Nenonen posted:My stupid wild rear end guess is that in 2014 Putin asked his generals when the army would be ready to fully invade Ukraine, and they threw 2022 just hoping Vova would forget about it. Or they did all their planning based on how Ukraine and the west acted in 2014. Yeah, it's probably inconceivable to them that post-2014 Ukraine would or could modernize and prepare sufficiently to counter
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Mar 9, 2022 23:00
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TulliusCicero posted:This is what is baffling to me the issue with endemic corruption is that nobody may have been aware of how bad it is but at the end of the day the entire operation was predicated on the idea that ukranians are racially subservient to great russians and will immediately be cowed by the russian whip rather than planning out an invasion against resistance people who did not subscribe to that racial philosophy were already on the outs with putin before he decided nobody can see him because of covid, and now they are neither seen nor heard from
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Mar 9, 2022 23:00
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the popes toes posted:Downside to US Army rank-and-file: Maintenance platoon sergeants are going to be insufferable after this Upside: Thousands more jobs not involving actually needing to shoot anyone Downside 2: Trillions more spent on making logistics more robust and not on healthcare or infrastructure
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Mar 9, 2022 23:01
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I do appreciate how they have been keeping us in the know about all these "justifications" for attacks, along with false flags. https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1501676240180322311
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Mar 9, 2022 23:01
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I think the idea here is to deflate any possible international rhetorical edge that Russia could eke out of one of these things. If Sleepy Joe is calling your shots several days in advance, you either don't do it to prove him wrong (and also, don't do a crime) or do it anyway because that's the plan (demonstrating that you are being completely intercepted and are also willing to do atrocities.)
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Mar 9, 2022 23:04
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One of the little points of note is how for the last 8 years the US has been doing military building operations in Afghanistan and Ukraine, the former with basically unlimited funds and the latter on a shoestring budget and pretty strong policy limitations. Guess which progamme was an utter disaster and which one appears to have been enormously successful? e: remember that pre-Maiden the Ukrainian armed forces were basically a carbon copy of Russia's, with arguably more corruption, less money, and no Gerasimov trying to make modernising reforms. They've come an enormous way.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:06
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javi posted:I do appreciate how they have been keeping us in the know about all these "justifications" for attacks, along with false flags. FWIW Russia did issue those kinds of statements before some of Assad's chemical attacks in Syria, but also issued a bunch of them followed by nothing. I wouldn't jump on the this is definitely happening train just yet. I certainly hope it won't, of course.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:07
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Nessus posted:I think the idea here is to deflate any possible international rhetorical edge that Russia could eke out of one of these things. If Sleepy Joe is calling your shots several days in advance, you either don't do it to prove him wrong (and also, don't do a crime) or do it anyway because that's the plan (demonstrating that you are being completely intercepted and are also willing to do atrocities.) Russia doesn't give a poo poo. They're calling their own shots, including the transparent excuses, already. KitConstantine posted:Thanks everyone for the military to English translations! I definitely missed some of the finer points.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:08
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Alchenar posted:One of the little points of note is how for the last 8 years the US has been doing military building operations in Afghanistan and Ukraine, the former with basically unlimited funds and the latter on a shoestring budget and pretty strong policy limitations. Guess which progamme was an utter disaster and which one appears to have been enormously successful? The one where the population is pretty much unequivocally on the US side because of an outside aggressor compared to the vastly more complex tribal system that shapes Afghanistan with multiple outside actors who have a long established influence in the area?
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Mar 9, 2022 23:09
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Nessus posted:I think the idea here is to deflate any possible international rhetorical edge that Russia could eke out of one of these things. If Sleepy Joe is calling your shots several days in advance, you either don't do it to prove him wrong (and also, don't do a crime) or do it anyway because that's the plan (demonstrating that you are being completely intercepted and are also willing to do atrocities.) Ya that's one of the worst thing of all this. Biden was intentionally giving Putin an exit ramp for MONTHS and that exit ramp would be a propaganda coup since you could play off how dumb and hysterical the US was. Now the narrative is that the US is smarter and better at literally everything militarily AND they know exactly what our plans are days and weeks ahead of time.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:09
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javi posted:I do appreciate how they have been keeping us in the know about all these "justifications" for attacks, along with false flags. It's especially good to warn now. I hope Russian soldiers see that their leadership might be considering gassing them. It might lead to defections.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:09
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Alchenar posted:One of the little points of note is how for the last 8 years the US has been doing military building operations in Afghanistan and Ukraine, the former with basically unlimited funds and the latter on a shoestring budget and pretty strong policy limitations. Guess which progamme was an utter disaster and which one appears to have been enormously successful?
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Mar 9, 2022 23:09
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TulliusCicero posted:Just some spec ops dudes on holiday, nothing to see here! Hereford seems pretty awfully quiet these days with all the SAS boys "on vacation" right now. Der Kyhe posted:It isn't completely out of the question that Putin might think that his armies are equipped with those scifi-reject body armor dudes and T-14 Armata-platformed vehicles. It is a cleptocracy after all, and the top man stays happy if he sees them in the parades and his Yes-men tell him how well everything is going. Also, that taking Ukraine is like running over Alabama with "shock and awe"-strategy. Really wondering how much of that poo poo was made for an audience of one. Gawd, this is loving pathetic. At least the other demonstrations of the "Terminator" had it shooting and poo poo, but this was obviously just a remote-controlled ATV. They didn't even bother to have it stand at any point, let alone have it dismount. It's all sleight-of-hand, I've seen better editing in an '80s low-budget sci-fi movie, where they have to do cuts for close-ups of the animatronics then a wide shot of the stop-motion model to convince an audience it was the same robot or creature.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:11
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javi posted:I do appreciate how they have been keeping us in the know about all these "justifications" for attacks, along with false flags. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 9, 2022 23:11
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Grouchio posted:So what they're saying is that chemical attacks are imminent and NATO is going to get involved because of it? Where did you get the part about NATO getting involved?
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Mar 9, 2022 23:12
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Youth Decay posted:I will not go so far as to say the "Russia, charge!" chant is the same as a Nazi salute buuuuuut they should probably specify if they want the kids to use an open or closed fist...  Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1501668072616255498?s=20&t=bl1xmau57ebHeLOBXUx3bg Oh, so this is why Wallace was yelling about court martial today. But also yeah, hmmmmmmm. Ynglaur posted:I haven't seen any OSINT that Russia has sent new BTGs to the theatre of operations since a few weeks before the invasion. I’ve seen some tweets with vehicle trains moving towards Ukraine, but it’s increasingly difficult to accurately date them, since they’ve already had so many of them.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:13
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Sinteres posted:Where did you get the part about NATO getting involved?
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Mar 9, 2022 23:13
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Grouchio posted:So what they're saying is that chemical attacks are imminent and NATO is going to get involved because of it? Nowhere in that thread does she suggest that NATO is getting involved, nor does it suggest one is imminent. Also Ukraine isn't a NATO member Grouchio
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Mar 9, 2022 23:14
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Just kids having a little fun https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1501676038090379267
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Mar 9, 2022 23:14
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Grouchio posted:A chemical attack on Ukrainian soil immediately triggering article 5 causing war? Ukraine still isn't a member of NATO. Article V is about collective self defense.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:14
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Grouchio posted:A chemical attack on Ukrainian soil immediately triggering article 5 causing war? Ukraine isn't part of NATO
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Mar 9, 2022 23:14
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TheRat posted:Ukraine isn't part of NATO
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Mar 9, 2022 23:16
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I'm not sure if I'm more annoyed by the far left, centrist/liberal, or far right coverage of this war. In today's media landscape you can get terrible takes no matter what side of the spectrum you're on!
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Mar 9, 2022 23:16
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Grouchio posted:Wasn't everyone just talking about how NATO would be forced to intervene if chemical attacks hit Ukrainian cities? That was just people getting carried away with their own red lines itt, not anything official.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:16
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Grouchio posted:So what they're saying is that chemical attacks are imminent and NATO is going to get involved because of it? to elaborate on what other people are saying: triggering NATO is done by attacking a NATO member, not by using chemical weapons on a non-member. using chemical weapons on a non-member might get NATO to decide to bomb you if they can get away with it - so it's a bad idea if you are, say, not russia - but it's not going to make NATO want to get into a direct fight with russia unless public outrage forces it to. Grouchio posted:Wasn't everyone just talking about how NATO would be forced to intervene if chemical attacks hit Ukrainian cities? they were not. if you thought someone was saying that, you misread.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:17
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Grouchio posted:Wasn't everyone just talking about how NATO would be forced to intervene if chemical attacks hit Ukrainian cities? I don't think it would even accomplish anything for Putin militarily, he'd just kill and maim a ton of people.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:18
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Grouchio posted:Wasn't everyone just talking about how NATO would be forced to intervene if chemical attacks hit Ukrainian cities? NATO exists to improve the security of its member states. declaring war on Russia would rapidly worsen the security of all member states
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