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I'm going to wonder for a while what the material conditions were overall that led to such an effortless transition into straight fascist imaging and sentiment.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:18
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Kavros posted:I'm going to wonder for a while what the material conditions were overall that led to such an effortless transition into straight fascist imaging and sentiment. These could all easily be Seliger people, which is an youth “bootcamp” for Putin’s party. That said, someone still had to approve this.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:20
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evilweasel posted:to elaborate on what other people are saying: triggering NATO is done by attacking a NATO member, not by using chemical weapons on a non-member. using chemical weapons on a non-member might get NATO to decide to bomb you if they can get away with it - so it's a bad idea if you are, say, not russia - but it's not going to make NATO want to get into a direct fight with russia unless public outrage forces it to. I still don't think NATO would intervene because of the public outrage, just because doing so would put them against Russia
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Mar 9, 2022 23:24
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The red line I saw someone mention in regards to chemical attacks in Ukraine would only happen if said chemicals leak into neighboring NATO countries. Which is possible... but very unlikely unless they are really, really big chemical attacks. A biological attack would blur the line, but that seems about as self-destructive and stupid as a nuclear attack given the last 2 years of dealing with a biological threat. It would be wise of NATO, since various members are talking about a potential Russian false-flag chemical attack, to clarify to their members and Russia what the expected reaction will be. If Putin doesn't know NATO's reaction, he's shown by his brashness that he is willing to test unknowns. So it would be better to draw a red line than leave it open. That said, the red line will likely be "we'll sanction you even harder somehow"
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Mar 9, 2022 23:28
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Alchenar posted:One of the little points of note is how for the last 8 years the US has been doing military building operations in Afghanistan and Ukraine, the former with basically unlimited funds and the latter on a shoestring budget and pretty strong policy limitations. Guess which progamme was an utter disaster and which one appears to have been enormously successful? Definitely a 'moral is to the physical as three to one' thing. You can spend as many years as you like training people to fight and giving them gear but it doesn't matter if as a group they don't have the will to fight. Even with Russian morale in the toilet, they still have a weight of history and national mythos driving them on; they didn't expect Ukraine to be able to contest them on any such level.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:29
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loving insane footage from inside Mykoliav no one gets hurt but still  https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoot...web2x&context=3 Somebody fucked around with this message at 00:12 on Mar 10, 2022 |
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Mar 9, 2022 23:34
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:Definitely a 'moral is to the physical as three to one' thing. You can spend as many years as you like training people to fight and giving them gear but it doesn't matter if as a group they don't have the will to fight. Oh yeah. The point is it turns out it really isn't the money at all (although that it very useful). It's about picking your partners. This shouldn't be some sort of deep insight but *waves at entire history of the cold war and beyond*. Also we are nearly on page 800 is it too much to expect that people who have been posting since the beginning finally grasp that life is not a Paradox game there is not some set of secret conditions that starts the ARTICLE V EVENT and then everyone involved loses all agency and has to do what the event says.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:34
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also pls stop recording for ticktok and get better cover
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Mar 9, 2022 23:35
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Alchenar posted:Also we are nearly on page 800 is it too much to expect that people who have been posting since the beginning finally grasp that life is not a Paradox game there is not some set of secret conditions that starts the ARTICLE V EVENT and then everyone involved loses all agency and has to do what the event says. Tbf the whole point of Article V is to convince people that's true so I don't blame people too much for believing it. Some of the proposed triggers are a little out there though.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:36
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FishBulbia posted:loving insane footage from inside Mykoliav no one gets hurt but still :nsfw: I'm gonna go ahead and say the dude standing where the shell lands definitely gets hurt
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Mar 9, 2022 23:38
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the popes toes posted:Downside to US Army rank-and-file: Maintenance platoon sergeants are going to be insufferable after this Where they ever not? (Thank God they were, and I hope they so remain.)
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Mar 9, 2022 23:42
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TheRat posted:I'm gonna go ahead and say the dude standing where the shell lands definitely gets hurt Pretty sure a lot of shells are design to fragment... a lot. Pretty sure none of those people are going very well.  Looks like at least a few of them had body armor and helmets on. Really hope that helped.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:43
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Today's ISW report is hilarious in the best way https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-9 quote:Russian operations to continue the encirclement of and assault on Kyiv have likely begun, although on a smaller scale and in a more ad hoc manner than ISW expected. The equivalent of a Russian reinforced brigade reportedly tried to advance toward Kyiv through its western outskirts and made little progress. Smaller operations continued slowly to consolidate and gradually to extend the encirclement to the southwest of the capital. Russian operations in the eastern approaches to Kyiv remain in a lull, likely because the Russians are focusing on securing the long lines of communication running to those outskirts from Russian bases around Sumy and Chernihiv in the face of skillful and determined Ukrainian harassment of those lines. The battle for Kyiv is likely to continue to be a drawn-out affair unless the Russians can launch a more concentrated and coherent attack than they have yet shown the ability to conduct.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:45
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Soon to print: Folly as Foreign Policy (And why the Russians are Right) by Mearsheimer https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1501689930589822988?s=20&t=QUazdGydaQD62asnTqo3uA
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Mar 9, 2022 23:45
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Alchenar posted:Also we are nearly on page 800 is it too much to expect that people who have been posting since the beginning finally grasp that life is not a Paradox game there is not some set of secret conditions that starts the ARTICLE V EVENT and then everyone involved loses all agency and has to do what the event says. I get what you're saying, things are not as certain as people make it seem about Article 5. But at the same time we have an example of Article 5 being invoked and used for immediate sweeping military action for 911. And several posters have done a thorough job of explaining the how and why of the escalation steps. Each one of these steps require one side to back down and potentially accept significant military and/or civilian losses to not continue the escalation. We have good reason to suspect Putin will not be the one to back down, and NATO leaders probably suspect that too, so it leaves us pretty stuck for conclusions. It's certainly possible for de-escalation to happen in these scenarios, that's basically how we got out of the Cuban Missile crisis. But there's a lot of differences between that and the current situation. And the whole point of Article 5 is to make the consequences clear, both to dissuade the aggressors and encourage allies. Putin would be real stupid to test it, but NATO would also be real stupid to let something slide.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:47
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Der Kyhe posted:The loyal elite are most likely securing his personal belongings, that bunker city his relatives are in, and St. Petersburg and Moscow. The Ukraine front gets everything else from where they are available; for example they have already sent battalions from the Finnish border to Ukraine. We know this because it caused a sort of minor poo poo storm here in Finland last week because US said in public that Karelian garrisons seem to be activating for something. Bunker city? Sounds curious.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:52
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If Russia actually orders their troops to take Kyiv they will suicide all of them. It's a huge heavily defended city. Even if they amass 50K strong force around it. If Russia completely levels Kyiv prior, there will be nothing left to capture. Both scenarios are horrible.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:53
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Young Freud posted:Hereford seems pretty awfully quiet these days with all the SAS boys "on vacation" right now.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:57
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Nobody cares if Russia uses chemical weapons. It's not some big red line to go to war. If that were the case we would have gotten involved in Iraq, Iraq vs Iran or Syria. This time will be different because there's literally no chance any NATO country will get involved while there was a small chance in those other conflicts. As long as this all stays in Ukraine NATO won't get involved militarily.
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Mar 9, 2022 23:58
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SaTaMaS posted:Today's ISW report is hilarious in the best way Summary: Russian troops moving around a lot and accomplishing little of significance. Most 'successful' part of the operation is the bits that consist entirely of war crimes. No points and may God have mercy on your souls.
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Mar 10, 2022 00:00
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Jesus. There's a video of a Russian tank/APC (not sure what the vehicle is) blowing up a civilian car with what seems to be an elderly couple inside. There's a close up video of the aftermath too.
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Mar 10, 2022 00:00
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There's two kinds of escalation still possible outside of Clancychat: 1) Sanctions targeting oil/gas. Europe is moving towards this, and it becomes more likely as time goes on because alternative energy plans will become more developed and Russian war criming will increase. 2) Damaged relations with China. As Russia continues to struggle, its economy weakens, and crosses international lines regarding NBC usage, the Chinese government will reevaluate their partnership. Russia's plan, right now, is to pivot from being dependent on the West to China, but the issue is this potentially damages China's reputation. It's not shackled to a corpse levels yet, but we're in unprecedented territory for economic isolation. EDIT: 3) Another crisis in the Russian sphere taking advantage of their military commitments in Ukraine.
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Mar 10, 2022 00:02
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mustard_tiger posted:Nobody cares if Russia uses chemical weapons. It's not some big red line to go to war. If that were the case we would have gotten involved in Iraq, Iraq vs Iran or Syria. This time will be different because there's literally no chance any NATO country will get involved while there was a small chance in those other conflicts. As long as this all stays in Ukraine NATO won't get involved militarily. Ehhh there's a pretty big, noticeable difference between Ukraine and those other countries.
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Mar 10, 2022 00:02
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Rinkles posted:Jesus. There's a video of a Russian tank/APC (not sure what the vehicle is) blowing up a civilian car with what seems to be an elderly couple inside. There's a close up video of the aftermath too. Yes, this was apparently located near a hospital.
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Mar 10, 2022 00:03
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Sino-
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Mar 10, 2022 00:04
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Telsa Cola posted:Ehhh there's a pretty big, noticeable difference between Ukraine and those other countries. Is it the simpsons colour chart?
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Mar 10, 2022 00:04
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Rinkles posted:Jesus. There's a video of a Russian tank/APC (not sure what the vehicle is) blowing up a civilian car with what seems to be an elderly couple inside. There's a close up video of the aftermath too. Yeah had the displeasure of seeing that. The pro-russia brainwormed tankies are proclaiming that since Ukraine is giving firearms to civilians, then the Russians must treat the civilian population as combatants since you never know who is going to attack you.
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Mar 10, 2022 00:04
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Telsa Cola posted:Ehhh there's a pretty big, noticeable difference between Ukraine and those other countries. There sure is. https://twitter.com/Nadine_Writes/status/1501637351273074690 Edit: I regret to inform you that the color chart is from Family Guy. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Mar 10, 2022 |
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Mar 10, 2022 00:05
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TheRat posted:Is it the simpsons colour chart? It's the simpsons color chart. Also a proximity thing. Maybe NATO wouldnt get involved militarily but id be willing the put money down that people would absolutely lose their god drat minds (as they should) in a way that wasnt seen for those. Edit: gently caress it's actually from family guy. Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 00:09 on Mar 10, 2022 |
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Mar 10, 2022 00:06
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Remember how supposedly in the first two days of the war a couple big transport planes went down, but no one saw wreckage so it was kind of assumed it didn't happen? Edit: nvm was posted, but have the Russian air force admitting it It totally happened lol https://twitter.com/sovietarmyfan/status/1501654949880553478?t=cTrMaiAOM99CG-Geo2AFuQ&s=19 RIP in piss Russian paratroopers Edit: now with machine translation and article link! https://uralpress.ru/news/obshchestvo/vechnaya-pamyat-chelyabinskiy-letchik-pogib-vo-vremya-specoperacii-na-ukraine 
KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 00:15 on Mar 10, 2022 |
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Mar 10, 2022 00:08
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TheRat posted:Is it the simpsons colour chart? Family guy?
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KitConstantine posted:Remember how supposedly in the first two days of the war a couple big transport planes went down, but no one saw wreckage so it was kind of assumed it didn't happen? No, the plane that crashed inside Russia is the one we definitely had evidence for since photos of the wreck were posted immediately. Burning_Monk posted:Family guy? Yeah, thats the one.
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Mar 10, 2022 00:10
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the popes toes posted:Sorry I don't have an attribution. A woman sits by the window of a Lviv-bound train, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, March 3, 2022. Vadim Ghirda/AP His insta has a dozen more from the same shoot, including some more cute traingoing dogs and cats. Ulf fucked around with this message at 00:16 on Mar 10, 2022 |
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Mar 10, 2022 00:11
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TheRat posted:No, the plane that crashed inside Russia is the one we definitely had evidence for since photos of the wreck were posted immediately. Did we ever see wreckage of a large transport plane? If so I missed it. There's been wreckage of smaller planes but not an A 26
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Mar 10, 2022 00:12
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KitConstantine posted:Did we ever see wreckage of a large transport plane? If so I missed it. There's been wreckage of smaller planes but not an A 26 https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1496935811773784073
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Mar 10, 2022 00:13
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Nessus posted:It would make sense for Putin to keep back some of his elites but you also, presumably, want to win the war. I suspect the comedy option is true. "Elite" doesn't necessarily mean "Good at soldiering", it means elevated. In a functional military that prioritizes competence the two are the same - the "Elite" units get more training, better equipment, top recruits, and are at a constant state of readiness. In a thoroughly corrupt mafia state it just means they're given greater opportunity to steal and bully than the regular grunts. There's no expectation of ability, part of being elite is the discretion to be allowed to send the conscripts in ahead to eat the bullets. The only thing they'll be the best at is internal politics and war crimes.
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Mar 10, 2022 00:14
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Thanks! Edited
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Mar 10, 2022 00:15
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Telsa Cola posted:It's the simpsons color chart. Also a proximity thing. So exactly what's happening now? Got it. This chemical weapon talk seems real Clancy chat to me but maybe not.
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Mar 10, 2022 00:15
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KitConstantine posted:Did we ever see wreckage of a large transport plane? If so I missed it. There's been wreckage of smaller planes but not an A 26 Yes, we saw wreckage of a transport that crashed inside Russia because of suspected mechanical failure. What we didn't see were the 'two Il-76 with 400 paratroopers shot down over Kyiv' E: linked the wrong video, will find the proper one E2: The proper one was linked above
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Mar 10, 2022 00:16
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FishBulbia posted:loving insane footage from inside Mykoliav no one gets hurt but still What is even happening there? Bad trigger disciple or? TheRat posted:I'm gonna go ahead and say the dude standing where the shell lands definitely gets hurt It has maximum range, reaching which it will self-detonate. 1km or some poo poo like that. dr_rat posted:Pretty sure a lot of shells are design to fragment... a lot. Pretty sure none of those people are going very well. There’s a solid chance it’s a HEAT round, in which case no shrapnel. Rinkles posted:Jesus. There's a video of a Russian tank/APC (not sure what the vehicle is) blowing up a civilian car with what seems to be an elderly couple inside. There's a close up video of the aftermath too. Tanks have tracks and gun that stick long past the hull. If there’s enough remaining for an aftermath video, it was not a tank, but some APC/IFV.
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