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US officials said earlier today that their estimates for losses are very preliminary https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1501718472979591173?t=4Z1d0s1BDGvKJPM9DJHiiA&s=19  that's a lot of bodies
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Mar 10, 2022 02:30
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KitConstantine posted:US officials said earlier today that their estimates for losses are very preliminary Not crazy numbers when compared to Iran-Iraq war, or Ethiopia-Eritrea war, or Falklands war when adjusting for deployment numbers. Modern mechanized warfare is extremely deadly and casualty producing.
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Mar 10, 2022 02:35
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KitConstantine posted:Interesting new gifts showed up in Poland Its more than likely a warning to the Russias: Do not try anything stupid against Poland.
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Mar 10, 2022 02:35
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Kavros posted:strongman dictators actually got a straight up problem with competent military operators because they are the primary candidates for "would overthrow me in a coup" In the 1940s it took an existential threat to the Soviet Union to overcome Stalin's abject terror of having competent people in positions of power. Keeping face during a failed invasion historically doesn't get dictatorships to pull their act together as well as that, does it?
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Mar 10, 2022 02:36
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Potentially significant given that US estimates on Russian casualties so far have tended to be on the lower end of the scale of those out there.
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Mar 10, 2022 02:36
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Inner Light posted:
Without actually clicking it, can you describe what it is?
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Mar 10, 2022 02:37
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Tigey posted:Potentially significant given that US estimates on Russian casualties so far have tended to be on the lower end of the scale of those out there. this is an otr source though
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Mar 10, 2022 02:38
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:(emphasis added) Eh, no, this is a common Russian tactic, they did it in Syria, Georgia, Chechnya, etc. And unsurprisingly its usually followed by ethnic cleansing by Russian military elements in cooperation with local militias.
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Mar 10, 2022 02:38
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Cimber posted:Without actually clicking it, can you describe what it is? Wounded pregnant lady being carried on a stretcher being evac'd from the hospital that got hit I assume
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Mar 10, 2022 02:38
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Cimber posted:Without actually clicking it, can you describe what it is? it's not that graphic, if you're worried about gore
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Mar 10, 2022 02:39
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Cimber posted:Without actually clicking it, can you describe what it is? a pregnant woman laying on a stretcher being carried by some militia. she looks to be moderately injured, but her face is worryingly pale it is a sad image but it is not gory or overly disturbing
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Mar 10, 2022 02:39
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KitConstantine posted:US officials said earlier today that their estimates for losses are very preliminary Thats like what, 7-10% of the force they invaded with right? That seems high for just two weeks
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Mar 10, 2022 02:40
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https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1501733405423251456
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Mar 10, 2022 02:40
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Vahakyla posted:I can't even loving bear to think how the enlisted live. I feel so bad for them. Literally worse conditions than in prison, if you don’t get lucky. And I don’t mean a Norwegian prison.
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Mar 10, 2022 02:40
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the popes toes posted:
Doctrinally incompetent, then. A doctrine written by leaders who think it works, because it works against subjects in an autocracy (who can't fight back).
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Mar 10, 2022 02:40
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Cimber posted:Without actually clicking it, can you describe what it is? Ukrainian emergency workers carried an injured pregnant woman from a hospital damaged by shelling in Mariupol Evgeniy Maloletka/Associated Press
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Mar 10, 2022 02:40
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sniper4625 posted:Wounded pregnant lady being carried on a stretcher being evac'd from the hospital that got hit I assume Its the front page image of most UK newspapers (and most of the European ones I just checked). May end up becoming one of the more iconic/memorable images of the war.
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Mar 10, 2022 02:41
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KitConstantine posted:US officials said earlier today that their estimates for losses are very preliminary Even on the low end, yeah, the estimates of Russian military deaths here suggest extremely significant losses. You look at the 10k figure of Russian troops killed Ukraine gives and might think "well, that's only 5% of their ~200k troops! They're still 95% effective!" But that's wrong, if only because for every guy killed in warfare you normally have a bunch more sick, wounded, captured, or surrendered. There are also considerations about which troops they lost - the units actually fighting back and willing to advance or attack rather than surrendering or fleeing are likely to be the ones taking the heaviest losses - that 5% might include a significant portion of the most effective troops they had and cannot easily replace. For things like aircraft you even have to consider that the on-paper airforce isn't going to be 100% operational. Half or more of the on-paper planes may not even exist in any useful way - they could be parked in long term storage with random parts missing to repair the newer production aircraft or may not have received key upgrades (or maintenance) for the past two decades. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 02:45 on Mar 10, 2022 |
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Mar 10, 2022 02:41
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Drunk in Space posted:Wasn't there an image posted a while back of about a 100 of them crammed inside a barn or something, all sleeping on the cold, hard dirt floor? I think it was from before the invasion when they were delayed so Putin could play mind games for a bit and gently caress his military even harder. That was some transport station, their alleged 5th day there.
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Mar 10, 2022 02:42
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CommieGIR posted:Eh, no, this is a common Russian tactic, they did it in Syria, Georgia, Chechnya, etc. And unsurprisingly its usually followed by ethnic cleansing by Russian military elements in cooperation with local militias. Right -- if you start doing that kind of thing the next step is either you do a genocide or someone 's grandma shivs you in the neck the next time you turn around.
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Mar 10, 2022 02:42
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Play posted:Yeah you either need to drop enough of them with enough supplies that they can hold out on their own or accomplish their objectives or plan to link up QUICKLY. Which maybe Russia thought they would be able to, but they weren't. I think the Russian plan was for the Ukrainians to not shoot back.
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Mar 10, 2022 02:47
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Vahakyla posted:Not crazy numbers when compared to Iran-Iraq war, or Ethiopia-Eritrea war, or Falklands war when adjusting for deployment numbers. Modern mechanized warfare is extremely deadly and casualty producing. All numbers from Wikipedia. Taking the Ethiopia-Eritrea as the example because it was both relatively short (13 months, though the signed peace was much later) and a clash between neighboring countries - estimated casualties for both sides range from 70-100k, so generously 5-8k/month. The Russians have hit in that range in 14 days. Equipment losses are no where near comparable. Iran-Iraq war - also close neighbors, lasted 95 months, combined military casualty estimates range from 300k-1.100k. Per month that's 3-11k. Again, Russia's there in 14 days all by itself It's fair to say Russia is experiencing an unusally high rate of attrition even for a modern conflict
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Mar 10, 2022 02:47
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Killer robot posted:In the 1940s it took an existential threat to the Soviet Union to overcome Stalin's abject terror of having competent people in positions of power. Keeping face during a failed invasion historically doesn't get dictatorships to pull their act together as well as that, does it? Uh, sorry about the whole gulag and torture thing, Mr. Rokossovsky. How about a mechanized corp to sooth any hard feelings?
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Mar 10, 2022 02:48
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Right, so we already had Putinjugend zwastika song video. What’s the next logical step? That’s right, need to get Stasi going https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1501701351633559556 This may seem out there, in which case I can share that a former friend of mine works for Russian police. As a professional witness. Yeah, in that sense of it.
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Mar 10, 2022 02:49
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Oh! the sēne is back!
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Mar 10, 2022 02:54
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Right, so we already had Putinjugend zwastika song video. What’s the next logical step? That’s right, need to get Stasi going ...Russia really is just Cardassia isn't it? "There will be a trial, you will be found guilty, and you will be executed" "But don't I get a defense?" "Of course, there will be a trial, you will be found guilty, and you will be executed"
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Mar 10, 2022 02:55
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KitConstantine posted:All numbers from Wikipedia. Baseline estimate is 5% dead. Now add a ratio of 2 or 3 wounded for every one killed. That would be pushing 15% of the invasion force out of commission in 12 days. Now add a fudge factor percentage (because nobody really knows) for desertions/surrender. Even if it is 1% that’s adding up. 15% every two weeks is everyone from the initial force in a month and a half. This is completely unsustainable if true.
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Mar 10, 2022 02:55
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The Lada is a pretty good downhill car. Was. https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1501725367639613446?cxt=HHwWjIDRhf7QmdcpAAAA
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Mar 10, 2022 02:57
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Nieuw Amsterdam posted:Baseline estimate is 5% dead. Now add a ratio of 2 or 3 wounded for every one killed. AND that's the low end. https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1501652227605372940?s=20&t=i1NOYBRkVUXqGZ1BFsCewA It's possible that a lot of these Russian units might be climbing up towards that 33% number.
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Mar 10, 2022 03:00
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Right, so we already had Putinjugend zwastika song video. What’s the next logical step? That’s right, need to get Stasi going Not Stasi, but Inoffizielle Mitarbeiter  Interestingly only a few percent of East Germans were active collaborators, but if your population believes it's a lot more the effect is rather the same, fear of saying the wrong thing to or around the wrong person helps suppress opposition to the state regardless of what the actual risks were.
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Mar 10, 2022 03:00
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The earlier analyst twitter thread went into casualty figures well. She had said that units start to become significantly degraded/ineffective in terms of combat performance at ~80% strength and are considered "destroyed" at 50% strength. And having 5% casualties wouldn't be evenly distributed, and means that some units are seriously degraded, some even destroyed. So combat performance is likely going to drop significantly from an already lackluster start, especially if those casualties are replaced by reservists/conscripts.
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Mar 10, 2022 03:04
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Word of caution for those searching for Mariupol’ updates - there’s a ton of photos of the mass grave being shared around.Churchill posted:Not Stasi, but Inoffizielle Mitarbeiter That’s already the case in Russia, and this will only make it more repressive.
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Mar 10, 2022 03:05
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JFC I thought this was a joke about Trump tilting at windmills. Then I watched the video.
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Mar 10, 2022 03:05
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I'm surprised (if true) that those allegedly fired generals were allowed to go out with their shield instead of on them
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Mar 10, 2022 03:11
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Nieuw Amsterdam posted:This is completely unsustainable if true. In the aftermath Mr. Putin's "lessons learned" will be to re-arm with better kit and with a proper professional military. There was a former Russian diplomat, don't remember where, that said regardless of outcome we should not lift the sanctions. Unless Putin is completely "out of the picture." Because we'll just have to do it again.
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Mar 10, 2022 03:12
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No fuckin way are the nelk boys interviewing an American president. lmao
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Mar 10, 2022 03:13
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the popes toes posted:Allied losses two weeks after Normandy were, perhaps not comparable, but close? Anyway, the Allies gave a poo poo about their losses but were not deterred. Mr. Putin will not be deterred. Given that Putins entire system is built of graft and corruption, and they TRIED to do that and the reformer general got kicked out: Good luck with that.
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Mar 10, 2022 03:15
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CommieGIR posted:Given that Putins entire system is built of graft and corruption, and they TRIED to do that and the reformer general got kicked out: Good luck with that. Now you and I both know that Russia isn't going to be attacked by NATO troops any time soon.
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Mar 10, 2022 03:19
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
You keep mentioning friends and “former” friends like that. At what point did they become “former” and how many atrocities did they commit before that. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 10, 2022 03:19
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CommieGIR posted:Given that Putins entire system is built of graft and corruption, and they TRIED to do that and the reformer general got kicked out: Good luck with that. A crisis can create a lot of impetus for change though. Ukraine’s military was trash 8 years ago but losing that territory to Russia so easily gave the reformers the authority to make the necessary changes. I think the same thing may happen with Russia too. The issue as always is that these things take time to fix, and Russia doesn’t have much time.
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