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Ola posted:They rise up, kill Putin, go through a difficult period of reconciliation, establish a liberal democracy, becomes a trusted nation in a world more peaceful and better suited for a long, sustainable, happy future than ever. They rise up, get rid of head dude and his cronies, then they elect a leader, grow tired of the attempted fair, equal and vote-driven government, so the next person sits on the head honcho position for the next 25-30 years and starts to think themselves a living god, bullies a couple of minor neighbors into satellites and finally fucks it up by trying to do something they cannot politically, economically nor militaristically afford. Some revisions are made and the cycle starts anew. Now, am I talking about Nicholas II of Russia, Stalin, Putin, or the "next guy"? The answer is "yes".
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Mar 11, 2022 11:22
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acidx posted:Maybe just to be able to point to a coalition of the willing type deal? Russia is a dictatorship with a lot of people in it, I can't imagine they'll be short of fighting age men if they want to throw more into the gauntlet. They would mostly be conscripts with no combat experience. If they grab a bunch of Syrians they would at least know how to shoot.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:26
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Rinkles posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502207704739233794?s=20&t=JUEJQp_-wJt7iMNiqtYsIw Totally normal thing to do when things are going according to plan
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Mar 11, 2022 11:28
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I doubt there are 16,000 volunteers, but there is probably some fraction of that number. It's probably only to signal 'look, our side has volunteers too'.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:31
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Dick Ripple posted:At least not quickly. If this thing drags out for months or years that can and will probably happen. Yea true, this poo poo's all happened so quickly I wasn't remotely thinking longer-term
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Mar 11, 2022 11:32
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https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1502227866540515328?t=9ZU_KlhsDu5K5N92oRFnYg&s=19 More people should now watch out for slippy floors near open windows and sudden heart attacks Dwesa posted:more twitter diarrhea from Rogozin Putin decided that Americans putting nazis in space program was a brilliant decision and decided to replicate.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:33
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Another thing that's completely baffling: looks like DNR and LNR did a total mobilization of every able bodied man, gave them whatever arms they had (including rusted out WW2 anti-tank guns, Mosin rifles etc) and expected them to perform well working with armoured units on the offensive. It's one thing to hand out guns, do a quick training and make people patrol your neighbourhood, dig some trenches and generally try to defend your house, and completely another to ask them to go on attack in a combined warfare mode.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:34
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Dick Ripple posted:Retired US general suggesting NATO help Ukraine by 'Taking Putins eye off the ball' by threatening to retake Kaliningrad. Also the male reporters face when he is suggesting this. Not a bad idea to increase the pressure on other fronts, be it military or non-military. The more their attention is divided, the better.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:37
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alex314 posted:Another thing that's completely baffling: looks like DNR and LNR did a total mobilization of every able bodied man, gave them whatever arms they had (including rusted out WW2 anti-tank guns, Mosin rifles etc) and expected them to perform well working with armoured units on the offensive. It's one thing to hand out guns, do a quick training and make people patrol your neighbourhood, dig some trenches and generally try to defend your house, and completely another to ask them to go on attack in a combined warfare mode. It's like they aren't real countries with a population actually motived to preserve their existence.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:42
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uXs posted:Not a bad idea to increase the pressure on other fronts, be it military or non-military. The more their attention is divided, the better. Definitely. No build up of troops along a border has ever led to an invasion in recent times, just ask Putin. More productive would be stirring up trouble in some of the more volatile parts of the Caucuses. An uprising in Chechnya would definitely cause a distraction.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:43
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Alchenar posted:It's like they aren't real countries with a population actually motived to preserve their existence. Motivation is one thing, but even if they were on a holy crusade to remove "drugged out nazis" all those dudes are useful for in the offensive is manning some checkpoints or maybe helping with logistics. Person that sent them to screen armoured spearheads should be hanged for warcrimes.
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Mar 11, 2022 11:52
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Dick Ripple posted:ik edit: To be fair, the general is explicitly stating the maneuver should not involve actual aggression, just putting a 'robust' military presence on the borders of Kaliningrad. It does provide yet another layer of deterrence against escalation. However, it would also give Putin a huge propaganda victory ("Look the evil US is preparing to invade us - we have to use extreme measures to de-nazify Ukraine quickly before they do"), so I'd really just prefer if the US focused on providing additional defensive equipment to Poland and the Baltics. But I wouldn't be unhappy if the US sent some ground forces on an exercise or prolonged holiday in Europe. Just not right on Russia's border. Somebody fucked around with this message at 13:24 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 11:58
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gay picnic defence posted:Definitely. No build up of troops along a border has ever led to an invasion in recent times, just ask Putin. It's just an exercise, nothing to see. I think there's actually a NATO exercise in Norway taking place and the Russians are moving forces away from the north lol
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Mar 11, 2022 12:02
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Demilitarization of Kaliningrad could be an useful negotiation point, as unlikely as it seems.
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Mar 11, 2022 12:05
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Giving Putin any kind of propaganda win is absolutely the wrong move. Nato should keep its head down outside of giving military aid to Ukraine
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Mar 11, 2022 12:09
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Ola posted:They rise up, kill Putin, go through a difficult period of reconciliation, establish a liberal democracy, becomes a trusted nation in a world more peaceful and better suited for a long, sustainable, happy future than ever. Unfortunately I think North Korea 2: Bigger and More Nuclear is more likely. The "Difficult period of reconciliation" is going to fail utterly, people are either going to flee the country or buy into the propaganda of Russians being the new Jews, unfairly despised and maligned despite never having done anything wrong. They'll commit to being a broke, utterly dependent vassal state of China with zero trade or relations with any of their closest neighbours before ever accepting any wrongdoing because, weirdly, accepting Chinese suzerainity will allow them to keep more of their pride.
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Mar 11, 2022 12:10
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mobby_6kl posted:It's just an exercise, nothing to see. You can actually see them all: https://shape.nato.int/nato-exercises It's likely that actually deploying the VJTF for reals has knocked a lot of these off track but ones to watch: NATO-GEORGIA EXERCISE 2022 22 - 24 Mar NATO-Serbian Exercise 22 1 - 14 Oct (will it get cancelled or not)
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Mar 11, 2022 12:13
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Often Abbreviated posted:Unfortunately I think North Korea 2: Bigger and More Nuclear is more likely. The "Difficult period of reconciliation" is going to fail utterly, people are either going to flee the country or buy into the propaganda of Russians being the new Jews, unfairly despised and maligned despite never having done anything wrong. They'll commit to being a broke, utterly dependent vassal state of China with zero trade or relations with any of their closest neighbours before ever accepting any wrongdoing because, weirdly, accepting Chinese suzerainity will allow them to keep more of their pride. It worked for Germany and Japan
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Mar 11, 2022 12:13
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Der Kyhe posted:They rise up, get rid of head dude and his cronies, then they elect a leader, grow tired of the attempted fair, equal and vote-driven government, so the next person sits on the head honcho position for the next 25-30 years and starts to think themselves a living god, bullies a couple of minor neighbors into satellites and finally fucks it up by trying to do something they cannot politically, economically nor militaristically afford. Some revisions are made and the cycle starts anew. Often Abbreviated posted:Unfortunately I think North Korea 2: Bigger and More Nuclear is more likely. The "Difficult period of reconciliation" is going to fail utterly, people are either going to flee the country or buy into the propaganda of Russians being the new Jews, unfairly despised and maligned despite never having done anything wrong. They'll commit to being a broke, utterly dependent vassal state of China with zero trade or relations with any of their closest neighbours before ever accepting any wrongdoing because, weirdly, accepting Chinese suzerainity will allow them to keep more of their pride. Yours are more likely, but mine is nicer to hope for. In the big picture of history, many hopeless dictatorships turned into good states. Hell, they were almost all hopeless dictatorships at some point.
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Mar 11, 2022 12:15
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Der Kyhe posted:They rise up, get rid of head dude and his cronies, then they elect a leader, grow tired of the attempted fair, equal and vote-driven government, so the next person sits on the head honcho position for the next 25-30 years and starts to think themselves a living god, bullies a couple of minor neighbors into satellites and finally fucks it up by trying to do something they cannot politically, economically nor militaristically afford. Some revisions are made and the cycle starts anew. Quiz time. Is this a quote about current events? quote:For a long time now, it’s been possible to foresee that this rabid hatred, being fired up in the West against Russia more and more with each passing year, would some day explode. This moment is upon us… The entire West came to show its denial of Russia and to block her path to the future,
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Mar 11, 2022 12:18
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Wuxi posted:It worked for Germany and Japan Those required total occupation of the country and rewriting their constitutions though. I don’t think that’ll be an option with a nuclear power.
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Mar 11, 2022 12:20
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Creating and maintaining the levels of suppression that North Korea has is very hard to do and takes a very long time. I don't think there's and way they could stabilize long enough to achieve that.
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Mar 11, 2022 12:21
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fez_machine posted:Don't post NEXTA, it's very unreliable Not to distract from, like, actual news and events, but... My sense is that NEXTA is approximately as reliable as you'd expect a citizen journalism outfit whose politics are "Belarusian liberal opposition" to be; which is to say that they are literate in Russian, on the ground geographically, in the right time zone, ideologically motivated to play up positive Ukraine news and down positive Russia news, mostly not doing primary sourcing, and mostly not engaging in the degree of mediation expected from professional journalists. Part of media literacy is not amplifying bad sources, clearly, but also part of media literacy is being able to contextualize the quality of a source. As an aggregator of Russian-language news (and also Telegram based citizen journalism boom boom videos) in the region, I would expect NEXTA to be mostly true and useful; as an organization doing original reporting about the private thoughts of Russian elites, I would expect them to be a lot less useful; and indeed this specific sourcing was being used in the "correct" way: NEXTA is doing secondary reporting of a public Russian-language statement. I wouldn't expect NEXTA's ability to engage in Kremlinology is any better than any other source's. The major issue with NEXTA reporting that I've seen in this thread is that they clearly have Ukrainian military and government channels that they report pretty uncritically and in a pretty dramatic way, so "Ukrainian officials investigating <x>" becomes "Ukrainian officials claim <x>" becomes "<x> is happening!!!"; that's their fault, but it's also something that we as readers can unpack. I guess my pitch is basically to think of media literacy as more broad than "good source / bad source".
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Mar 11, 2022 12:27
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A Russian scholar pointed out that bit of the Putin conversation today that seems to have been overlooked https://twitter.com/ArtyomLukin/status/1502232703902666754?t=1VxY8pRNj2RkhTNSz6sgVg&s=19 Maybe this is why they want to bring in Syrian fighters? Put them out of sight in Ukraine and keep back some trustworthy Russian troops to post on NATO borders? The Russian MoD cut a promo of the Syrian fighters btw. Interesting camera angle choices, almost like it's trying to make it look like there's more dudes than there are  https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1502232208781762560?t=qGaIeY-XKdUG_rCor6n3Kw&s=19
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Mar 11, 2022 12:29
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Sanctions have historically proven to be absolutely hopeless at provoking regime change but they might be pretty good at preventing states from being able to wage conventional wars. As far as I know no state that's been under sanctions has engaged in a conflict with another state along conventional lines. Which might actually be preventing regime change as typically revolutions happen after military adventurism.
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Mar 11, 2022 12:30
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Russia can't make more missles currently because all the bits are from a German supplier and they can't make them domestically, for instance.
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Mar 11, 2022 12:33
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Sending Russian armor into Poland or the baltics right now seems like a good way to get them deleted by NATO airpower so fast no one will know wtf even happened.
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Mar 11, 2022 12:35
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fez_machine posted:Sanctions have historically proven to be absolutely hopeless at provoking regime change but they might be pretty good at preventing states from being able to wage conventional wars. Yeah that's really the deal here. Vastly less money in the state budget, which means that continuing to spend lots on the military has real consequences for domestic investment and consumption that will be felt. No more fancy Western made optics or electronics or engines, so beyond domestic rockets you have an armed forces that's stuck in the 80's trying to threaten a Western alliance that is rearming for a 21st Century fight. A lot of the kit that's being lost right now can never be replaced. This is the high water mark of Putin's Russian. Come what may the Russian armed forces will literally never again be as powerful as they were the day before they stepped over the Ukranian border.
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Mar 11, 2022 12:35
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Kamrat posted:I know there's been rumours about Putins right hand before because he doesn't move it much while walking but the reason he doesn't move it much is because it's an old KGB thing that he's internalized, where you always got to keep your main hand close to your holster so you can pull out your gun quickly if needed. A lot of old KGB-guys walk like Putin because of this. Yes, but what I meant was not that he is keeping his hand still, but rather that to me it seems that it is moving uncontrollably, as if my he had had a stroke or had Parkinson's.
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Mar 11, 2022 12:35
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KitConstantine posted:A Russian scholar pointed out that bit of the Putin conversation today that seems to have been overlooked Makes sense, send in disposable Syrian army dipshits and put other Russian units on other borders as a “gently caress you” also as internal security. fez_machine posted:Sanctions have historically proven to be absolutely hopeless at provoking regime change but they might be pretty good at preventing states from being able to wage conventional wars. True, but I think you will see Eurasian states and various Russian client states attempt to break away from putin.
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Mar 11, 2022 12:36
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There is no way they can replace all the latest AA systems, tanks and jets they are losing for at least 5 years. It will also hurt their ability to fulfill delivery of existing orders from other countries.
Flagellum fucked around with this message at 12:41 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 12:38
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alex314 posted:It is my feeling that Russian soldiers aren't super into letting Kadyrov's crew have their way in eastern Ukraine. Imagine how great for morale it would be to see a bunch of Syrians pillage regions that are at least 50% ethnic Russians, and share the same ethnicity, language and religion to Russian soldiers.. Arkady Babchenko (the journalist who faked his death) has a chapter in One Soldier's War where he talks about being ordered to conduct patrols and man checkpoints with Chechen militants who had been ruthlessly murdering Russian soldiers just a few weeks earlier, and the effect that had on morale. Wasn't great!
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Mar 11, 2022 12:39
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Somaen posted:https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1502207976286953476 Good to know one of the worlds largest armies needs randos to show up for week three of a local border war. This is code for we can’t pull more Russian troops in because we cannot achieve our domestic military needs: - protect the border - prop up our only allies like Belarus and the Stans - suppress domestic dissent - keep separatists in line
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Mar 11, 2022 12:40
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Flagellum posted:There is no way they can replace all the latest AA systems, tanks and jets they are losing for at least 5 years. It will also hurt their ability to deliver existing orders from other countries. This. Also it sounds like the west is gonna give Ukraine more advanced ground/anti air/anti missile stuff instead of migs which may be more useful.
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Mar 11, 2022 12:40
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Drone_Fragger posted:Russia can't make more missles currently because all the bits are from a German supplier and they can't make them domestically, for instance. It's probably worse than that, because Germany tends to make the things that make things. Go into any halfway automated factory and odds are there's a German machine driving some weirdly specialised production step you've never heard of before, and the only supplier is a 20 person company in Hintertupfingen. And when that machine breaks the production line is hosed.
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Mar 11, 2022 12:41
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100 years from now, Zorro will be remembered as anti-Ukranian propaganda.
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Mar 11, 2022 12:42
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Russian friends say that in response to the (fake) news that Meta will allow hate speech against Russians, Russia is planning to block Instagram.
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Mar 11, 2022 12:42
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Sanctions are also what brought Iran to the table, twice, even after one of the actors has proven to be unreliable by unilaterally pulling out of the deal
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Mar 11, 2022 12:42
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mobby_6kl posted:It's just an exercise, nothing to see. Almost as though the NATO panic is an excuse concocted for gullible idiots.
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Mar 11, 2022 12:44
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TheRat posted:Not gonna lie, this here is at least a little bit funny gently caress that guy
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Mar 11, 2022 12:45
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