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His Divine Shadow posted:I think he'd fare a lot worse than in Ukraine if he tried. But still, lets resurrect Mannerheim, just in case. There's no loving way Putin can take Finland. It's a non-starter. And frankly all of the nordics would lose their minds.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:48
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https://www.euronews.com/2022/03/11/military-drone-likely-from-ukraine-crashes-near-croatian-capital-zagreb So the drone that hit Zagreb (Tu 141) is an ancient thing the size of a small aircraft. Russians aren't using it any more, so it has to be Ukrainian. While we're laughing at the Russian airforce, army, etc. let's pause and consider for a moment that during a war in Europe, a military aircraft flew 1000 km through three NATO countries and crashed in one of the capitals without anyone doing or noticing anything before the boom. Also, the caption under the photo says outskirts, but it was pretty much center.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:49
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Nice piece of fish posted:There's no loving way Putin can take Finland. It's a non-starter. And frankly all of the nordics would lose their minds. He cannot even drag up more units to take Ukraine, Finland would be laughable disaster at this point.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:49
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Speaking of companies that deserve everything they get https://twitter.com/zakavkaza/status/1502272069400244234?t=tF1Zkt5aSHWQWi4gCFNuEw&s=19
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Mar 11, 2022 14:50
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steinrokkan posted:Yeah, the proliferation of no name Twitter accounts spreading obvious bullshit under the guise of iNtEl (or unsourced fragments of sensationalist information of any sort) is such a terrible obstacle to actually learning about the conflict. I repeat KitConstantine posted:His interpretation about the nukes may be wrong but the statement about building up Russian troops at the western border is taken straight from this readout of a meeting Putin had with his Security Council This article was also linked in the first tweet of the thread I posted. The author of the thread is an "international relations scholar at Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivosok" in Russia. He may have some understanding of the internal Russian dynamics here. Edit: his bio from fpri.org: Artyom Lukin is Deputy Director for Research at the School of Regional and International Studies, Far Eastern Federal University (Vladivostok, Russia). He is also Associate Professor at the Department of International Relations. KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 14:57 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 14:51
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Hate to go OORAH but Finland has a fairly competent and large military and also more artillery than almost any other country in Europe. Finland would be a NATO asset, not the other way around, which is where a lot of the opposition stem from here.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:54
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dr_rat posted:China and pretty much every other country in the world would cut them off completely. plenty of countries like dealing with corrupt dictators, no one wants to deal with the crazy gently caress who literally pressed the button to start world war 3. Even the U.S. has not currently cut off Russia completely; the vast majority of the "cultural" pull-outs over the last few weeks have not been in response to any legal sanction, and instead have been either elective on the part of the firms or a response to deteriorating ability to get paid. You also see a lot of cases like Google where they are no longer taking money in Russia but they haven't kicked Russia off the app store etc. This could be a Syria/Cuba/DPRK situation. The U.S. could also do significantly more to pressure non-allies to implement sanctions; we're seeing some thaw in U.S.-Venezuela relations, we're seeing obviously some liaising with OPEC, but way more can be done. Trump "gave" Morocco Western Sahara (which I disagree with strongly) to get it to normalize relations with Israel. Clearly compliance can be bought. The targeted sanctions against people could be massively expanded, the asset freezing could be massively expanded, property seizure could be used. None of this to say the U.S. should do any of this, just that it's obvious the screws could still be tightened a bunch more.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:54
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CommieGIR posted:He cannot even drag up more units to take Ukraine, Finland would be laughable disaster at this point. That's the only reason I could find multiple invasions to be a good thing. Russia is already doing a horrendous job with supply lines, there's no way they could do that across multiple fronts for more than a week.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:56
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KitConstantine posted:Speaking of companies that deserve everything they get The way I understand it is Blackrock sold shares in funds, so unless they kept those Russian securities in their ownership it's the clients that got shafted. And maybe Blackrock a bit, since they generously waived management fees for those units.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:57
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CommieGIR posted:He cannot even drag up more units to take Ukraine, Finland would be laughable disaster at this point. Of the three brigades stationed on the Finnish border two have sent their BTG complements to Ukraine and at least one of them has been seriously damaged in battles.
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Mar 11, 2022 14:57
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alex314 posted:The way I understand it is Blackrock sold shares in funds, so unless they kept those Russian securities in their ownership it's the clients that got shafted. And maybe Blackrock a bit, since they generously waived management fees for those units. right. BlackRock didn't lose $17bn, rather $17bn worth of client money under BlackRock management disappeared when the various russian companies in which that money was invested were subject to business loss because of sanctions and war BlackRock lost some money here for sure but that's just the nature of investment. sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes your entire stake goes up in flames due to an ill advised military conflict
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Mar 11, 2022 15:00
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Ynglaur posted:Over 70 tons for the newest versions. They replaced copper data cables with optical cables in one of the newer iterations and saved about 2 tons, but I thought it was immediately taken back by a new auxiliary generator, etc. The M1's I used almost 20 years ago were 68 tons. All of this is before adding anything like a mine plow or rollers or whatever. I believe the 68 tons (and likely the 70 tons you're giving) are short tons. I was speaking in metric.
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Mar 11, 2022 15:00
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Ataxerxes posted:Of the three brigades stationed on the Finnish border two have sent their BTG complements to Ukraine and at least one of them has been seriously damaged in battles. I don't know if that really matters, Finland's military is smaller but Putin committed a significant portion of his forces to Ukraine.
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Mar 11, 2022 15:02
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Blackrock currently has $2.6 Trillion dollars worth of assets under management. Unless there's some other stuff going on they'll barely notice.
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Mar 11, 2022 15:03
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Finland's terrain is unforgiving for tank warfare which Russians are apparently already really bad at.
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Mar 11, 2022 15:04
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WaltherFeng posted:Finnish terrain is unforgiving for tank warfare which Russians are apparently already really bad at. Yeah its a lot of swamps and forests. So year round rasputista CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 15:08 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 15:05
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I think Finland would defeat Russia and Sweden would assist. Nato weapons would flow into Finland. They already have very advanced weaponry on their own dime. And I believe their required service has trained a large amount of potential reserves forces. Edit: I wouldn’t have said this before this invasion.
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Mar 11, 2022 15:07
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CommieGIR posted:I don't know if that really matters, Finland's military is smaller but Putin committed a significant portion of his forces to Ukraine. Also other European countries wouldn't just send aid, they'd send armies (even though Finland isn't in NATO they still do have treaties with a lot of other countries). Britain or France alone would easily take care of whatever russia has left to send. But yeah if putin decides to open up another front when he's losing Ukraine so badly, then he's really lost his mind and god knows what happens then.
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Mar 11, 2022 15:08
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KitConstantine posted:In a nice side note, Kazakhstan is doing their best The USSR literally did a genocide in Kazakhstan, they know what's up. Half my wife's family is in Altay Kray and half in Kazakhstan, and it's amazing how cagey the russians have to be vs the kazakhs just dumpstering Putin and Russia in kazakh-language jokes I don't understand but are apparently very good.
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Mar 11, 2022 15:09
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I feel like Putin was expecting to be like "Hey, Kazakhstan, you remember when we did you a solid and put down those protests? You owe us" and they'd just go along with it. Their refusal kind of adds to the paper bear effect of Russia. If they're not liked enough to be supported by allies (except for Lukashenko, who I swear has the IQ of a rotten acorn), then uh, this ain't gonna go well.
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Mar 11, 2022 15:18
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Belarusian opposition advisor had some comments on the Putin-Lukashenko meeting: https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1502263050245705730?t=OLDUkzqrIl3MkhpriNkz8A&s=19 https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1502271144908529670?t=Q1TtntpUpfVAomoQHQVZ8g&s=19 I'd appreciate if someone could verify if the below translation is right. Ukraine has been warning that Russia and Belarus may be planning a provocation at Chernobyl https://twitter.com/DaveHerndon5/status/1502282539171520512?t=5EVBvIFpL_tEwpG52RAO4A&s=19
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Mar 11, 2022 15:21
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We're only getting Ukrainian info, basically, but I think another part of the reason the Russians have had a hard time with tanks is a big recon disadvantage. The Ukrainians appear to have all kinds of little unarmed recon drones, including various hobby drones, flying around looking at things. A bunch of recent videos of strikes on Russian tanks have been taken from this kind of drone. I can't find the article, but early in the war there was an interview with an anti-armor team commander fighting in the Western suburbs of Ukraine, where he highlighted their use of a tiny drone to spot and avoid Russian infantry and find avenues of approach and retreat to sneak up on Russian tanks and kill them. That kind of visibility and intelligence provides a huge tactical advantage. Anyway what I'm getting at is that probably "tanks are useless" is overstated and if the Russians also had these kinds of capabilities it might be possible to spot the Javelin team hiding behind a railway berm 5 km away, and figure out what to do about it. And anything within the range of a tank that gets seen will have a bad time. I suspect we'll see even more small drones in use with lots of sensors, and that in a future peer-to-peer war you wouldn't think of advancing a combined arms formation without that kind of recon cover, just like right now a competent military wouldn't think of pushing forward armor without infantry and fire support.
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Mar 11, 2022 15:24
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The whole thing about reinforcements at the western border has to be about pretending that the nato homonazis are big threat. But it's funny to imagine Putin doing an even bigger self-own and invading Finland or PolandKitConstantine posted:Belarusian opposition advisor had some comments on the Putin-Lukashenko meeting: The famous Belorussian seafood is back on the menu boys! In that clip he says "and what they wanted to do at Chernobyl we'll still have to figure out"
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Mar 11, 2022 15:25
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cinci zoo sniper posted:To me as an Eastern European, Putin looks and sounds on the verge of meltdown in that video. ngl it is weird to see a russian guy expressing that much discomfort, even if clearly restrained
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Mar 11, 2022 15:25
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KitConstantine posted:Belarusian opposition advisor had some comments on the Putin-Lukashenko meeting: When Putin looks Lukashenko do you think he feels pity or disgust?
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Mar 11, 2022 15:26
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KitConstantine posted:I'd appreciate if someone could verify if the below translation is right. Ukraine has been warning that Russia and Belarus may be planning a provocation at Chernobyl This is not a good translation. Lukashenko says “and what they were planning for Chernobyl, we’ve yet to figure out”. He throws just a very vague shade in that direction, nothing more. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 15:29 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 15:27
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Tuxedo Gin posted:I believe the 68 tons (and likely the 70 tons you're giving) are short tons. I was speaking in metric.  It's not even new to the US; I learned it in school here in the late 80's.
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Mar 11, 2022 15:27
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CommieGIR posted:He cannot even drag up more units to take Ukraine, Finland would be laughable disaster at this point. Not to mention that it’s a European country comfortably set in the “western” cultural sphere, a lot more than Ukraine. If you thought that Europe and the world at large has stepped up to show support for Ukraine in a big good way, hooo boy, Finland would be handed everything they’d want short of nukes, and there wouldn’t even be an ingrained right wing narrative about Hunter Biden’s shady Hillary Email servers.
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Mar 11, 2022 15:27
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I think China is going about this all wrong. From a realist perspective China ought to be bandwagoning with the West while angling—like Japan for the divvying up of post-war Russia and replacing Russia as the patron state for the Asia. Former Soviet Republics. Edit China wants to be a superpower in a bi-polar world. Russia is actually a competitor in that regard, not an ally. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 15:32 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 15:29
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:We're only getting Ukrainian info, basically, but I think another part of the reason the Russians have had a hard time with tanks is a big recon disadvantage. The Ukrainians appear to have all kinds of little unarmed recon drones, including various hobby drones, flying around looking at things. A bunch of recent videos of strikes on Russian tanks have been taken from this kind of drone. The clip with the tanks getting blown to poo poo in Brovary looked like was made on a Mavic or something, just based on the video quality and stabilization. I guess no reason off the shelf drones couldn't be used for recon. And while "tanks are useless" is definitely overblow, I though they've been definitely reduced in importance in most western doctrines.
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Mar 11, 2022 15:29
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:right. BlackRock didn't lose $17bn, rather $17bn worth of client money under BlackRock management disappeared when the various russian companies in which that money was invested were subject to business loss because of sanctions and war Just to clarify: an exchange-traded fund isn't really the same as wealth management. The money lost is not client money, as it is not being managed on behalf of clients. Rather the specific ETF should be regarded as an individual corporate entity. The ETF owns a portfolio of assets - which can be any kind of financial instrument, but is usually a combination of shares, bonds, futures, options and warrants. Possibly with some FX (currency cross) exposure as well depending on circumstances. When you want to invest in 'Russia' you can go buy shares in an ETF which matches that profile. That does not mean you transfer money to the ETF. You buy shares in the ETF. You can then collect dividends from those shares, and you can sell them for a profit if the price goes up. It is usually price movement of ETFs which is where the real money is to be made. So let's say I own 10 shares in this ETF. And prices per share goes by a factor 600. I haven't lost anything yet. I still have my shares. But I'm probably not going to get any dividends. And if I sell the shares, I will have lost on the investment (unless I bought the shares a century ago, which doesn't apply for such an ETF). The ETF pays out dividends based on the investment performance of the fund, with a certain percentage kept as costs. That's where Blackrock make their money. But here's the kicker: Many investors will use ETFs as collateral for leveraged investments. So the value of those ETFs allow them to invest money they don't have. As long as that other investment doesn't drop more in value than the collateral worth, everything is good. If the collateral or the leveraged investment drops, a margin call is issued, and the investor has to put up more collateral or liquidate investment to get back within limits. Any investors holding this ETF as part of their portfolio will have suffered an unrealized loss and may have suffered a margin call. Blackrock has lost the potential for the cut of dividends, but if the shareholders buy a new Blackrock ETF, then Blackrock itself hasn't lost anything. But the ETF value reduction is a loss to shareholders - not to Blackrock (unless they held shares, which they probably did). However it isn't assets under management, rather it is reputational damage from investors associating their loss with the Blackrock brand (if the ETF was branded as such).
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Mar 11, 2022 15:30
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And we make our own jeans now so https://twitter.com/ru_rbc/status/1502246597941469187 Putin: The USSR has always lived under sanctions and achieved tremendous success.
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Mar 11, 2022 15:32
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it's a bit concerning to see this tweeted while Lukashenko claims Ukrainians had something planned with Chernobyl https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1502259680374046733 https://twitter.com/DI_Ukraine/status/1502244748073095168
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Mar 11, 2022 15:34
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Im pretty much of the mind that any discussion of Russia attacking Finland anytime soon is just useless clancychat, any troop build up would be noticeable and most Rssian garrisons along the border are actually emptied since theyre deployed to Ukraine. You do remember how long it took Russia to move the forces there and how long it was on the news? But I wouldnt discount them loving around Baltics and Nordics otherwise https://twitter.com/kaitsepolitsei/status/1502268539679514638
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Mar 11, 2022 15:37
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I've been saying since the beginning that since Russia put so much emphasis on taking Chernobyl and the exclusion zone, its going to be their ace in the hole/backup plan/hostage towards EU or something. Or at least their plan to use nukes against Kyiv without using nukes against Kyiv. I hate that this now starts to look plausible.
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Mar 11, 2022 15:38
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Patrocclesiastes posted:Im pretty much of the mind that any discussion of Russia attacking Finland anytime soon is just useless clancychat, any troop build up would be noticeable and most Rssian garrisons along the border are actually emptied since theyre deployed to Ukraine. You do remember how long it took Russia to move the forces there and how long it was on the news? The Russians have demonstrated that they can't handle a single-front war in Ukraine. They're not going to have the men or materiel to open a new front somewhere else. Putin & co. are just blustering.
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Mar 11, 2022 15:39
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Der Kyhe posted:I've been saying since the beginning that since Russia put so much emphasis on taking Chernobyl and the exclusion zone, its going to be their ace in the hole/backup plan/hostage towards EU or something. Or at least their plan to use nukes against Kyiv without using nukes against Kyiv. I hate that this now starts to look plausible. Yeah I'm concerned as well. I don't know exactly what Russia could actually do with Chernobyl, as none of the reactors are fueled, you'd have to blow up the plant with conventional explosives, but Putin doesn't seem rational in all this.
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Mar 11, 2022 15:40
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Atreiden posted:it's a bit concerning to see this tweeted while Lukashenko claims Ukrainians had something planned with Chernobyl ...Wouldn't that just blow into Russia? Seems real stupid if true
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Mar 11, 2022 15:40
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What would an attack on Chernobyl's reactor actually do?
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Mar 11, 2022 15:41
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:We're only getting Ukrainian info, basically, but I think another part of the reason the Russians have had a hard time with tanks is a big recon disadvantage. The Ukrainians appear to have all kinds of little unarmed recon drones, including various hobby drones, flying around looking at things. A bunch of recent videos of strikes on Russian tanks have been taken from this kind of drone. I'm sure there was a post in here a while back about a country (Finland?) sending Ukraine over 100 regular commercial drones to use for reconnaissance. No doubt they received others too. Grouchio posted:What would an attack on Chernobyl's reactor actually do? Make HBO richer.
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